7
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @realroseceline: Thoughts on $NFLX buying $WBD:
$NFLX is buying $WBD for about $83b using mostly cash and a small amount of stock. The deal gives $NFLX the entire Warner Bros studio HBO and major franchises like Game of Thrones, Harry Potter, Friends and more. $NFLX will keep Warner Bros operating the same way including theatrical releases.
The logic behind the deal is straightforward. $NFLX gets a massive library of proven hits which strengthens the service and gives members more to watch. Creators get more chances to work with top tier IP and scale it globally. Shareholders get more value because stronger content drives more members more engagement and more revenue. $NFLX also expects $2-3b in annual cost savings and says the deal will be accretive by year two.
$WBD shareholders will receive $23.25 in cash and about $4.50 in $NFLX stock for each share depending on where $NFLX trades at closing. Before the deal closes $WBD will spin off its global networks division (CNN, TNT, etc) in Q3 next year. The deal still needs regulatory approval and shareholder approval but both boards have signed off and $NFLX expects to close in 12 to 18 months.
Here is the part most people miss. At $NFLX scale $83b is not the big deal people imagine. Spread across hundreds of millions of subscribers the entire cost can be covered by a small price increase of $1-2 dollars a month over time. $NFLX has raised prices before and almost no one cancels because the value is still great. And when you compare it to buying HBO on its own for around $20 a month getting all of that content plus the entire Warner Bros library for an extra $2 is almost nothing from a consumer perspective.
This is why the headline looks huge but the economics are simple. Scale turns big numbers into manageable ones and $NFLX is operating at a scale very few companies ever reach.
🌹
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EndGame Macro
RT @MauiBoyMacro: This sincerely resonates with me and describes what motivates me to be here; sharing information, learning/growing and contributing where I can. 👇🏼
Why I Post So Much: Because Every Day the Game Gets Smarter And So Should You
I look at the world like a game that’s constantly trying to outsmart me. Inflation chips away at savings. Policies tilt the board. Laws shift incentives. Every move the system makes, it’s taking a small bite out of your time, your labor, your freedom usually without you even noticing. Money might not be everything, but it dictates almost everything we do. So I treat it like chess. The board is the monetary system, and the goal is simple…don’t get cornered.
That mindset forces me to study. You can’t win a game you don’t understand. So I read history to see what happens when debt piles up, when currencies debase, when governments overextend. It’s not about predicting the future but rather about recognizing patterns. The same mistakes repeat with different branding. The players change, but the incentives don’t.
To me, this is awareness. Whether or not the system is out to get me doesn’t even matter. Acting as if it is makes me sharper. It keeps me questioning what’s real value versus what’s illusion. It keeps me from trusting a system that punishes people for saving, rewards debt, and sells security that quietly erodes in real terms.
There’s a psychological piece to it too. When you start viewing the world this way, you stop feeling like a victim and start thinking like a player. You realize you’re not powerless, you’re just uninformed. And the more you learn, the more control you take back. That’s what really drives me to post, trying to pull more people into that mindset. Not fear, but curiosity. Not cynicism, but agency.
Because once you see the game, you can’t unsee it. You start noticing how narratives are used to keep people comfortable, distracted, compliant. You start thinking in probabilities, not promises. And you realize that every bit of knowledge about history, markets, policy, or human behavior is a small form of protection.
That’s what all of this is about. The system may not actually be trying to screw you, but if you assume it is, you’ll live smarter. You’ll learn faster. You’ll stop playing by rules that were never written for you in the first place. And honestly, I hope more people start thinking that way. Because once you do, you stop drifting and start playing the game on purpose.
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memenodes
Crypto performance in Q4
https://t.co/Wbm19cQ854
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EndGame Macro
What I Found After Digging Into the Real Research on Deflation
After working through the most serious research on deflation and the frameworks central bankers actually rely on, one thing becomes impossible to ignore…deflation isn’t about CPI going down. It’s about balance sheets cracking under the weight of debt. Once you shift from prices to debt versus debtor incomes, the U.S. and global picture makes far more sense.
Deflation Starts When Debt And Debtor Prices Diverge
The research from Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria rebuilds Irving Fisher’s old idea for the modern world…deflation begins when the prices that support debt like wages, asset values, and broad output prices stall while nominal debt stays fixed. When these debtor prices flatten or fall, the real burden rises. Defaults pick up, banks tighten lending, collateral softens, spending slows, and the loop reinforces itself.
Their index blends debtor inflation with the health of bank credit. When the combined index rises, the system is sliding toward a deflationary setup. Japan’s lost decade fits this perfectly. After 2008, the United States pulled the index down with aggressive bond buying programs, while the European Monetary Union did not,
so its index remained elevated.
The takeaway was you don’t get deflation just because consumer prices cool. You get it when debtor prices weaken while leverage stays high.
Whether The Spiral Breaks Or Explodes Depends On How Deleveraging Unfolds
The paper I read from the Bank for International Settlements shows the mechanics. A financial shock alone doesn’t guarantee collapse. If households and businesses can refinance and if investors with clean balance sheets step in to buy cheap assets, the system stabilizes. Losses occur, but the loop doesn’t turn catastrophic.
It becomes dangerous when everyone tries to reduce leverage at the same time or when banks respond to losses by cutting credit. That’s when you get forced selling with falling prices, more losses, credit tightening and more forced selling. It’s the Irving Fisher and Hyman Minsky spiral in real time. Faster price declines actually make matters worse because they instantly raise real debt burdens.
The policy conclusion is either reflate and refinance with bond buying, lower real rates, yield caps or you risk years of balance sheet contraction and stagnation.
How This Maps Onto The United States And The World Right Now
Seen through this lens, the United States is drifting toward similar dynamics of a 1930s style collapse…
• Very high public debt and vulnerable pockets of private debt (commercial real estate, corporate credit).
• High interest rates sitting on top of debt issued in a low rate era.
• Early signs of the exact stress these models warn about: rising delinquencies, asset price softness, slowing wage momentum.
• A massive refinancing wall coming in 2026–2027.
If policymakers keep real rates too high into this backdrop, the system starts looking less like the United States after 2015 and more like the European Monetary Union around 2012 with weak lending, fragile collateral, and nominal growth too soft to support the debt load.
Globally, you can already see different stages of this same pattern: Japan has lived inside it for decades, the European Monetary Union slips toward it whenever growth slows, and China is entering it through property deflation and tightening credit.
My Read
The next phase of the cycle isn’t about whether inflation lands at 2% or 3%. It’s about how countries manage too much debt in a world of weak nominal growth. Modern deflation doesn’t announce itself with a dramatic crash, it shows up as sluggish demand, suppressed yields, repeated credit accidents, and slow motion financial repression.
The United States and much of the world are already on this road. The real question now is whether policymakers move toward reflation early or wait until the spiral tightens. tweet
WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: $NBIS is one of the most interesting AI infrastructure plays on the market, involved across multiple verticals.
Here’s why 👇
🔷 Providing highly efficient compute at competitive prices.
🔷 Serving hyperscalers, start-ups and enterprises with hyperscaler-level compute quality.
🔷 Own and operates data centers all around the world.
🔷 Operating in one of the fastest-growing sectors with massive demand.
🔷 Very rapid ARR growth driven by insatiable compute needs.
🔷 Active in autonomous vehicles and tech education through its subsidiaries.
🔷 Involved in cutting-edge data technologies through equity stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka.
🔷 Valuation reflects execution risk, not full long-term potential.
The bear case?
🔷 Highly competitive industry with major cloud providers and neoclouds, even if Nebius offers hyperscaler-grade compute at better pricing.
🔷 Large capex requirements, long scaling cycles, and the risk of overbuilding capacity — amplified by hyperscalers shifting risk downstream.
🔷 Execution needs to remain flawless to compete long term in the AI ecosystem.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $NBIS is building competitive AI infrastructure at a time when demand is exploding, with pricing and performance that directly challenge hyperscalers.
Question is, how long before the market recognizes the scale of the opportunity?
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WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: The market is in a bubble.
I’m not sure anyone can or should even try to deny this, but most here misunderstand its source. It isn’t a valuation bubble, and the comparisons to the dot-com era are just plain wrong.
But we are in a bubble: a liquidity bubble.
To be more precise, we went through different liquidity bubbles and reached the point where this excess liquidity is now a necessity for the U.S. government. They issued too much debt, reached a point where they can’t pay it back, and now have to issue more simply to survive.
Part of this excess is distributed to companies which can sustain markets in ways that were not possible before, other to workers who can consume while they shouldn't be able to, or wouldn't have in the past.
In brief: it won’t be fixed tomorrow.
For decades, markets lived and died based on access to liquidity from the private sector. This is no longer the case. We entered an era of continuous liquidity from fiscal policies, which can be further boosted by monetary policies. But the baseline is, and will remain, much higher than historically - and will only grow from here.
So please, leave your Buffett Indicator and average multiples at the door. The data is real: we are above averages, but we also evolve in an incomparable environment.
You wouldn’t compare a lion’s lifetime in Siberia to one in Africa. Seems stupid, right? Same thing here.
We'll continue to have volatility, crashes, corrections and such. But in the medium term, without any resets, valuation's average will continue to trend higher because liquidity continues to trend higher.
Our job is to make the most of any situation. So let's focus on that.
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EndGame Macro
The Clock Is Ticking: Why the Fed Must Cut Faster Than Anyone Admits
This is the invoice for keeping rates too high for too long. For more than a decade, the Fed made easy money on its bond book and sent steady remittances back to Treasury. That’s why the line sits flat. But when they slammed rates to 5% while still holding trillions of low yielding QE bonds, the whole machine flipped. Interest on reserves and RRPs surged, and the Fed started losing money in real time. Since the Fed can’t go bankrupt, it just stops paying Treasury and stacks the losses in a sort of accounting purgatory. That vertical drop roughly $240 billion is money the government will never see unless the Fed earns its way out over years.
Why This Moment Is More Dangerous Than It Looks
If everything else in the economy were humming, you might chalk this up to the cost of fighting inflation. But the backdrop is weakening in all the places that matter. Auto, card, and student loan delinquencies are climbing. Office real estate is deeply stressed. Credit scores are falling nationwide. Young workers can’t find stable footing. And the 2026 refinancing wall looms: trillions of government and commercial debt that must be rolled at rates far above the ones they were born into.
This is the early outline of a demand slowdown and a potential debt deflation setup. High nominal rates in that environment don’t stabilize anything. They just make every dollar of debt heavier as incomes soften. That’s how economies quietly drift into deflationary spirals.
Why the Fed Needs to Move Faster Than Anyone Thinks
This is why they’ve already cut twice, why QT ends December 1st, and why they’re redirecting MBS runoff into T-bills. They’re trying to create just enough breathing room to prevent a funding accident while pretending everything is fine. But the truth is simple: the longer they leave rates here, the more the real economy including households, banks, and the Treasury itself buckles under the weight.
The narrative says slow, steady cuts.
The reality is they may not have that luxury.
If deflation is the real risk, they can’t wait for the data to confirm it. By the time it shows up cleanly in CPI, the damage is already done. The Fed needs to cut faster than consensus expects not to juice markets, but to keep the system from tightening itself through rising delinquencies, collapsing credit quality, and a refinancing wall that gets more dangerous with every month of high rates.
The recent flattening in the chart is the first sign the Fed knows the clock is ticking. Either they bring rates down on their own terms, or the economy will force a far uglier adjustment later.
Fed has finally stopped the losses, largely b/c IoR has dropped and RRPs are drained while average yield on balance sheet is steadily rising as low-yield assets mature, placed w/ higher-yielding ones; Fed is still over $240 billion away from sending Treasury a single dime: https://t.co/15edllE1iR
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App Economy Insights
What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $MDB
• Tuesday: $ASAN $CRWD $GTLB $MRVL $OKTA
• Wednesday: $CRM $SNOW $PATH $AI $HQY
• Thursday: $IOT $LULU $RBRK $S $DOCU $HPE
All visualized in our newsletter. https://t.co/iesAsbjVUW
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EndGame Macro
Take pride in the things most people overlook, because that’s where the real foundation gets built. There’s nothing wrong with driving the old car you own outright instead of chasing a payment. There’s nothing wrong with cooking at home, stretching leftovers, or sharing a crowded apartment if it means you’re keeping your independence and stacking the resources that matter later. These choices aren’t signs of being behind, they’re signs you’re thinking long term.
And the truth is, happiness rarely comes from the shiny finish line people imagine. It comes from the pursuit itself…the chase, the small wins, the discipline, the moments when you know you’re sacrificing now to create something better later. When you start seeing the journey as the thing to enjoy, all those unimpressive decisions suddenly feel meaningful. They’re not signs of struggle. They’re signs that you’re walking your path with intention, building real freedom one choice at a time.
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EndGame Macro
Once you recognize how carefully the narrative around the consumer is shaped, something shifts. You start to see that so much of modern economic life is about confidence, sentiment, and the stories we’re encouraged to believe so the machine keeps turning.
There’s a whole architecture built around keeping people optimistic enough to spend, even when the underlying reality is weakening. And once that clicks, you can’t slip back into the old innocence. Every headline feels a little different. Every record number carries an asterisk. You begin to ask…is this information, or is this maintenance of belief?
It can feel a little bleak at first, realizing how much of the system depends on managing perception rather than confronting truth. But that awareness is also a form of protection. It keeps you from drifting with the crowd, from trusting signals that no longer reflect reality, from being the last one buying into a narrative long after the foundations have cracked.
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memenodes
Two truths and a lie
https://t.co/mQVr4Wa3CN
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AkhenOsiris
$SHOP
Shopify Black Friday sales table (accel this year):
2022, $3.36 billion, 16%
2023, $4.1 billion, 22%
2024, $5 billion, ~22%
2025, $6.2 billion, 25%
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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🇨🇳 Alibaba $BABA
👷 Home Depot: $HD
👔 Workday $WDAY
💻 Dell $DELL
☁️ Zscaler $ZS
and many more!
https://t.co/cAvMwnG1YP
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Fiscal.ai
Grab is the largest ride sharing & food delivery platform in Southeast Asia.
Over the last 3 years, they've shown remarkable operating leverage as they've scaled.
$GRAB https://t.co/KLH0FypG2B
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AkhenOsiris
RT @FreightAlley: Freight data has been telling us that there was more demand than retailers forecasted
https://t.co/VXCBRZLKoS
Mastercard's preliminary SpendingPulse data indicates U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% year-over-year on Black Friday 2025, exceeding the 3.6% holiday season forecast and the 3.4% growth seen in 2024.
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EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: Thanks Martin. And just to clarify, the fact that I use AI is literally in my bio. But none of this would land the way it does if I were just typing prompts and posting whatever comes back. I spend minimum 6 hours every day digging through news, data, reports, charts, history and then I use AI as a tool to help me express the ideas clearly and compactly, because macro and geopolitics is insanely complex and a single missed detail can flip an entire argument on its head.
So when people say it’s just AI, it actually does annoy me a bit lol because the thinking, the framing, the interrogation of assumptions… that’s all me. AI just helps me package it in a way that fits into a post without losing the nuance. And honestly, the best part of this whole thing is that I’m learning constantly as I go.
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EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: Why I Post So Much: Because Every Day the Game Gets Smarter And So Should You
I look at the world like a game that’s constantly trying to outsmart me. Inflation chips away at savings. Policies tilt the board. Laws shift incentives. Every move the system makes, it’s taking a small bite out of your time, your labor, your freedom usually without you even noticing. Money might not be everything, but it dictates almost everything we do. So I treat it like chess. The board is the monetary system, and the goal is simple…don’t get cornered.
That mindset forces me to study. You can’t win a game you don’t understand. So I read history to see what happens when debt piles up, when currencies debase, when governments overextend. It’s not about predicting the future but rather about recognizing patterns. The same mistakes repeat with different branding. The players change, but the incentives don’t.
To me, this is awareness. Whether or not the system is out to get me doesn’t even matter. Acting as if it is makes me sharper. It keeps me questioning what’s real value versus what’s illusion. It keeps me from trusting a system that punishes people for saving, rewards debt, and sells security that quietly erodes in real terms.
There’s a psychological piece to it too. When you start viewing the world this way, you stop feeling like a victim and start thinking like a player. You realize you’re not powerless, you’re just uninformed. And the more you learn, the more control you take back. That’s what really drives me to post, trying to pull more people into that mindset. Not fear, but curiosity. Not cynicism, but agency.
Because once you see the game, you can’t unsee it. You start noticing how narratives are used to keep people comfortable, distracted, compliant. You start thinking in probabilities, not promises. And you realize that every bit of knowledge about history, markets, policy, or human behavior is a small form of protection.
That’s what all of this is about. The system may not actually be trying to screw you, but if you assume it is, you’ll live smarter. You’ll learn faster. You’ll stop playing by rules that were never written for you in the first place. And honestly, I hope more people start thinking that way. Because once you do, you stop drifting and start playing the game on purpose.
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WealthyReadings
Get ready to see $PYPL BNPL growing 283,765% YoY.
The plan is going exactly as expected. And PayPal will have a strong Q4. Followed by a terrible guidance. https://t.co/CyHBKo5sm5
JUST IN: American shoppers spent record $11.8B online on Black Friday, up 9% from last year
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WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: 🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap, and I don’t say that often.
Financials are strong. Growth is strong. Multiples are reasonable. And we’re set up for a Q4 beat.
Here’s why $TMDX will go higher, why they’ll likely beat FY expectations and why it is one of the best buy on the market 👇
Quarter flight numbers so far.
🔹October: 773 flights → 24.9 per day
🔹November to date: 317 flights → 26.4 per day
🔹Q4 to date: 1,090 flights → 25.3 per day
As of today, not even halfway through Q4, $TMDX has generated around $74.4M in revenue, roughly half of what’s needed to hit the low end of its FY guidance - which has already been raised three times this year.
This comes after just 43 days, with 49 days left in the quarter.
At the current pace of 25.3 flights per day, they’re on track for.
≈ 2,330 flights total in Q4
≈ $159M in revenue
That would push FY25 revenue toward the high end of their guidance without any acceleration in flight frequency.
And december is historically the strongest month of the quarter, and the second strongest of the year in terms of transplant activity and flight data for $TMDX.
So if they simply maintain this rhythm, they’ll hit the high end of their guidance and if flights accelerate - as history suggests, we're up for a beat.
That being said, my calculations aren't perfect, nothing really is, but there are reasons to expect a strong quarter based on today data for $TMDX.
All while the stock trades at its lowest multiples in years, with many bullish catalysts ahead.
🔹 Rapid growth & expanding margins
🔹 Recession proof business model
🔹 Multiple short-term growth verticals
🔹 Strong winter seasonality
🔹 Competition acquirerd 20×+ sales
You'll find everything you need to build your convictions just below 👇
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WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: $NVO is NOT cheap and NOT a buy right now.
GLP-1 was supposed to drive growth but market share is slipping in favor of competition. Growth guidance was cut twice and there are no near-term catalysts nor clarity on what the future will be like.
Lower growth → lower cash generation → lower multiples.
This is how the market works. Comparing today's valuation to the last two years' is like comparing apples to bananas. Conditions changed.
$NVO is a fantastic company. Just not a great stock, yet. There are no reasons to rush any purchase, better be patient.
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Fiscal.ai
What would stop Uber from continuing to grow this number?
$UBER https://t.co/MDudp6N6Mt
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WealthyReadings
Dropped my $TMDX valuation model to subs. Still a buy after its 30% rally?
We're going over the numbers & the growth verticals.
🔹U.S. market & next-gen OCS
🔹European expansion
🔹Kidney OCS
🔹& more
Concluding on my investing plan for my biggest position. Link's in bio. https://t.co/YxwkzEjQKg
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Fiscal.ai
Sprouts Farmers Market has nearly double the operating margins of any other public grocery chain.
$SFM: 7.7%
$WMT: 4.2%
$COST: 3.8%
$KR: 2.7%
$ACI: 1.9%
$GO: 1.5% https://t.co/ILiolSQvqk
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EndGame Macro
Why Record Black Friday Sales Doesn’t Mean What It Sounds Like
These big Black Friday numbers get thrown around every year, but they’re a lot less impressive once you strip out the marketing glow. A 9% jump in online spending doesn’t automatically mean the consumer is strong, it mostly means prices are higher. If everything costs more, you can hit a “record” without people actually buying more. In fact, Salesforce hinted at it directly…shoppers spent more dollars but walked away with fewer items. That’s not a boom, that’s inflation doing the math for you.
How Households Are Actually Paying
Another piece that gets ignored is how people are funding this spending. A lot of the surge is being pushed through credit cards and buy now, pay later. That’s not the behavior of a confident, cash flush consumer. It’s people stretching just to keep holiday traditions alive in a more expensive world. You can get a big headline number today, but it comes with a tab of higher balances, rising delinquencies, and less room to maneuver later.
The Black Friday That Isn’t Really Black Friday Anymore
And the whole event has bled into a month long promotion cycle. It’s not one frantic day where demand explodes, it’s “Black Friday Week” or even “Black November.” Retailers stretch deals across weeks to coax cautious shoppers into spending. So some of this record volume isn’t new demand at all; it’s just December spending pulled forward and repackaged into a one day victory lap.
Once you see all that, the headline loses its shine. It’s not a clean read on consumer strength, it’s a mix of higher prices, borrowed money, and a sale window that keeps getting longer. Underneath the surface, it looks a lot more like people trying to keep up, not people breaking out.
U.S. BLACK FRIDAY SALES HIT RECORD HIGH
U.S. online Black Friday sales reached a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe expects Americans to spend $5.5 billion on Saturday and $5.9 billion on Sunday.
Salesforce reported $18 billion in total Black Friday spending, with luxury apparel and accessories among the top sellers. Despite higher spending, shoppers bought fewer items due to rising prices.
In-store traffic was quieter as many consumers worried about overspending amid inflation and economic uncertainty.
Cyber Monday is projected to lead the season with $14.2 billion in online sales, Adobe said.
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EndGame Macro
When Oil Falls, Bitcoin Slips, and Metals Rise Something Bigger Is Shifting
When you line everything up from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to now, the pattern is surprisingly clean. Silver is running away from the pack. Gold’s not far behind. Stocks are grinding higher but not exploding. The dollar hasn’t moved. Oil has slipped. Bitcoin has fallen apart. That mix alone tells you this isn’t an inflation story. It’s something quieter.
Silver leading while oil and Bitcoin sink is the market’s way of saying…”We’re not fighting runaway prices anymore, we’re settling into a slower, cooler environment.” In inflationary periods, oil is usually the star and the dollar weakens. Here, oil is down and the dollar is steady. And Bitcoin the thing people pile into when liquidity is overflowing is one of the worst performers. That’s a very different tone.
Why This Leans Deflationary
Start with energy. If the market truly believed we were headed into another inflation surge, oil wouldn’t be sitting down near the lows of this whole window. It would be ripping. Instead, Brent looks like it’s pricing weaker demand and a softer global outlook. That’s usually what happens when people expect slower nominal growth, not faster inflation.
Then look at the split between Bitcoin and the metals. In inflation waves, Bitcoin normally outperforms everything, it feeds off easy money and excess liquidity. But here it’s been steadily bleeding lower while silver is up almost 50%. That’s capital shifting away from speculative inflation hedges and toward hard assets that hold up in a low growth, low rate world. Silver is benefiting from that shift, and from its link to solar, electronics, and real economic activity.
And the dollar matters too. When inflation is the problem, the dollar weakens because real yields fall and capital looks elsewhere. But the dollar here is basically flat. Metals aren’t rising because the dollar is collapsing, they’re rising in spite of it, which is a very different message.
Put together, this chart just reinforces what the gold to silver ratio was already hinting at: the panic around inflation has faded, and the market is quietly rotating into assets that fit a slow, disinflationary backdrop. It’s not the feel of a boom. It’s the feel of a system cooling down, easing off the extremes, and preparing for a long, softer stretch where real assets with utility not speculative fireworks lead the way.
Credit to @robin_j_brooks for the chart.
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EndGame Macro
Silver’s Signal: Why a Falling Gold Ratio Is Whispering Deflation Ahead
The gold to silver ratio has been drifting lower for years, and now it’s pressing into the bottom of that long channel 75 to 73 to now basically 70. Whenever a chart grinds lower like this, especially over a multi year stretch, it usually means the market is slowly letting go of a narrative. In this case, it’s letting go of gold’s panic premium. Gold is the metal people grab when they’re afraid of inflation, currency problems, or policy mistakes. Silver is part monetary too, but it’s much more tied to actual industrial demand. So when the ratio falls, it’s usually the market saying: We’re less worried about inflation. We don’t need as much of the pure hedge.
Why This Points Toward a Deflationary Tone
The timing is the tell. This breakdown isn’t happening during the inflation spike,
it’s happening after, once central banks have slammed on the brakes for two straight years. Historically, the ratio spikes when inflation is the headline risk (think 2008, 2011, 2020), then it falls when inflation expectations collapse and investors start trusting the system’s nominal anchors again. A move toward or below 70 says the market is shifting out of the protect me from runaway prices mindset and into a slower, cooler one. That’s what disinflation feels like: the fear premium evaporates first.
And silver’s outperformance here doesn’t scream inflation is back. It actually suggests the opposite. It usually means people are leaning more toward real economic demand like solar, electronics, manufacturing rather than hiding out in pure monetary assets. In other words they’re betting on activity, not price level chaos. When that happens alongside a firm dollar and stable long term yields, it’s much closer to a soft, deflationary glide than some new inflation wave.
So if this chart breaks cleanly below 70 and keeps sliding, the market thinks the inflation scare has run its course, and we’re entering a stretch where slow nominal growth and fading fear, not a new surge in prices set the tone.
Gold to silver ratio (GTS) broke horizontal support and headed towards the lower band of a 3.5-year descending channel formation with GTS target of 70.
At $4,500 gold price and GTS 70 = Silver @ $63
Either way, I believe, silver is headed to $63 price target most likely by next week.
My next target for GTS 57 & Gold price target $5,000
$5,000/57= $88 silver price.
Surely if gold overshoots then silver could reach a triple digit figure.
This post is not an investment advice...
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AkhenOsiris
Mastercard's preliminary SpendingPulse data indicates U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% year-over-year on Black Friday 2025, exceeding the 3.6% holiday season forecast and the 3.4% growth seen in 2024.
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI $GOOGL $META $AMZN
OpenAI is now internally testing 'ads' inside ChatGPT that could redefine the web economy.
Up until now, the ChatGPT experience has been completely free. While there are premium plans and models, you don't see GPT sell you products or show ads.
As spotted by Tibor on X, ChatGPT Android app 1.2025.329 beta includes new references to an "ads feature" with "bazaar content", "search ad" and "search ads carousel."
https://t.co/xr1AJdVfgt
It is likely that ads will be limited to the search experience only, but that might change soon.
My understanding is that GPT ads could be highly personalised as the AI knows everything about you unless you disable the feature,
https://t.co/5vILyxtHFk
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EndGame Macro
The Industrial Slowdown Was Phase One. Phase Two Depends on the Consumer
What you’re looking at is the combined pulse of the manufacturing economy. Each line represents a different Fed district asking local factories a simple question: “Are things getting better or worse?” Above zero means improvement, below zero means contraction. When you average all the regions together, you get a pretty reliable sense of the national trend.
The story is clear. Early 2021 through mid-2022 was the overheated, post COVID surge…reopening demand, stimulus, supply chain chaos. Then things cooled hard. Higher rates hit, inventories got worked down, global demand softened. Manufacturing slipped below zero and stayed there, almost two full years of quiet contraction. Not a crash just a long, grinding slowdown.
Now, in mid 2025, everything is clustering around the flat line. It’s not booming, but it isn’t sliding further either. It’s the look of a sector that’s done most of its bleeding and is trying to find a floor.
Where We Are Now And What Happens If the Broader Economy Rolls Over
If the rest of the economy were still healthy, you’d probably say manufacturing is bottoming out. It already went through its own private recession, and historically this kind of stability around zero is the phase before a slow, uneven recovery.
But if you assume the broader economy finally softens and consumer spending slows, services stop carrying the load, credit gets tight this chart reads very differently.
Instead of manufacturing is stabilizing, it becomes manufacturing has already taken its hit… and now the rest of the economy is catching down. In that scenario, these surveys don’t drift from negative to positive, they turn back down with a second leg, this time reinforced by layoffs, weaker orders, and a pullback in investment across multiple sectors, not just factories.
That’s how a long, contained industrial slump turns into a full cycle downturn: the part of the economy that held everything up finally runs out of momentum. Manufacturing doesn’t cause the recession, it simply stops hiding the one that’s been building underneath.
So the question the chart is really asking isn’t whether factories are improving.
It’s whether the rest of the economy gives them room to recover… or pulls them back under on the way down.
Manufacturing started contracting around mid-'22 and has been in the doldrums ever since: https://t.co/LfSH9F5uDP
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