7
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
memenodes
Time to tell my mom to swap the silver to crypto https://t.co/Mi7MQvCcS9
tweet
memenodes
best CT post of 2025? https://t.co/cxzkVf4TMD
tweet
memenodes
same actress https://t.co/RHsGmKVtzD
same actress https://t.co/zHsE5UJe8n
tweet
EndGame Macro
I’m fairly confident if they actually came out with this movie that it would probably be a massive success 🤣
holy shit sydney sweeney in shrek ??? 🍿 https://t.co/EP8qYx50GW
tweet
EndGame Macro
Questions Everyone Should Be Thinking About as 2026 Approaches
1. What’s the historical precedent of the year over year moves of Gold and Silver over the past year?
2. What’s the historical precedent of the current delinquency rates on credit cards, auto loans and student loans?
3. What’s the historical precedent of the current 2025 Chapter 11 and Sub V filings? (You need to add them both together because prior to 2020 Sub V filings were included in Chapter 11 bankruptcies)
4. What’s the historical precedent of the current vacancy rates of commercial properties and more specifically commercial office? And what does that mean for tax revenues of cities and towns across the U.S.?
5. What’s the historical precedent in the amount of commercial loan debt needs to be refinanced in 2026 at higher rates? And what are the ramifications for Banks? Lending? Etc..
6. Whats is the historical lag effect when the Fed has started cutting rates and taken measures like Quantitative Easing to materialize into the economy that is already in or entering a recession?
7. What is the historical precedent for the amount of Amercians that are voluntary and non voluntary working part time jobs as of December 2025?
8. What price historically does oil need to be for U.S. oil drillers and refiners etc.. to stay profitable and what happens when oil gets blow that? And what is the price of oil now?
9. How concentrated is the current U.S. Stock Market compared to 1929, 2000 and 2008? And what happened after?
tweet
EndGame Macro
RT @DiMartinoBooth: New Year, New Goals — A Discount Offer from QI Research
Take advantage of our New Year offer and Save 20% on a subscription to The Daily Feather now or to our QI Pro Subscription —
https://t.co/QP3cvp4b6e https://t.co/x5VMDp0Say
tweet
EndGame Macro
Bitcoin Is Trading Like Risk And Metals Like Money
When a market is crowded with long perps, price doesn’t gently drift lower, it air drops. One level breaks, stops trigger, liquidations cascade, and the selling turns mechanical. That’s how you get a $3k move in under an hour. Not a new fundamental. Just positioning meeting thin liquidity.
Now look at what’s happening at the same time. Gold and silver are catching a bid like money, not like a trade. Silver ripping while Bitcoin wicks lower is the tape telling you where unlevered demand is going. In a deflationary impulse, people don’t reach for optionality first they reach for collateral. Metals benefit because they’re simple, liquid, and nobody can margin call the atoms.
Why Bitcoin Isn’t Following M2
People love the Bitcoin vs. global M2 chart like it’s a law of physics. It isn’t.
M2 tells you money exists, not where it’s willing to go. Bitcoin is a marginal asset, it trades on risk appetite, leverage, and market plumbing. Those are very different things.
If we’re sliding toward deflation, liquidity doesn’t behave like it did in 2020. It gets trapped.
It gets trapped in T-bills and money funds because risk free yield is still real competition. It gets trapped on balance sheets because refinancing walls, rising delinquencies, and tighter credit force cash to be used defensively. And in crypto specifically, it gets trapped because the transmission mechanism isn’t bank deposits…it’s stablecoins, leverage, and derivatives credit. If stablecoin growth slows, if exchanges tighten margin, if funding flips, Bitcoin can lag liquidity for a long time even while the aggregate money number rises.
That’s the core divergence where global M2 can go up while risk liquidity goes down. One means money exists. The other means money is willing to take volatility.
My View
This is what easing looks like when it starts for bad reasons.
The system gets more liquidity, but the private sector is deleveraging. Households are stressed. Credit quality is deteriorating at the edges. Cash is being used to refinance, roll debt, and plug holes, not to chase upside.
In that world, the first winners aren’t high beta trades. They’re collateral and scarcity assets like cash, bills, gold and sometimes silver when supply is already tight and momentum kicks in.
Bitcoin is just being treated like what it still mostly is in this phase which is a levered risk asset. It will catch up when the plumbing turns back on and when liquidation cycles clear, when stablecoin credit expands again, and when people stop using liquidity to repair balance sheets and start using it to take risk.
Until then, expect more of these fast, ugly flushes in BTC and a steadier bid in assets that don’t need leverage to work.
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls nearly -$3,000 in 45 minutes as $70 million worth of levered longs are liquidated. https://t.co/ffFp8vlU1m
tweet
memenodes
How buy button looks at me when the paycheck hits my bank https://t.co/pFV6Ro3Bdq
tweet
memenodes
“including holders”
VITALIK BUTERIN: "Ethereum will surprise everyone!" https://t.co/qkYd90x2Ue
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $NFLX 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.42x
•3-Year Mean: 34.87x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.61%
•3-Year Mean: 2.41%
As you can see, $NFLX appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~15% MORE in earnings per share & ~8% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NFLX is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $9.32B
•Long-Term Debt: $14.46B
$NFLX has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 13x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 18.2%
•2022: 14.9%
•2023: 18.5%
•2024: 24.3%
•LTM: 29.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 38.0%
•2022: 24.5%
•2023: 26.1%
•2024: 38.4%
•LTM: 42.9%
$NFLX has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUE✅
•2019: $20.16B
•2025E: $45.09B
•CAGR: 14.36%
FREE CASH FLOW❌➡️✅
•2019: ($3.14B)
•2025E: $9.18B
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $0.41
•2025E: $2.54
•CAGR: 35.52%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 4.38B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.26B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~3%, $NFLX increased its EPS by ~3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 29.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 24.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~15% MORE in EPS & ~8% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NFLX has to grow earnings at a 15.21% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.21%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.54 (28% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $3.24 (28% YoY)
2027E: $3.91 (20% YoY)
$NFLX has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $NFLX ends 2027 with $3.91 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $125💵 … ~15.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $121💵 … ~13.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $117💵 … ~12.0% CAGR
29x P/E: $113💵 … ~10.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $109💵 … ~8.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $105💵 … ~6.3% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume a >29x multiple for $NFLX to have attractive return potential
At 29x earnings $NFLX has ok CAGR potential
At 30x $NFLX has attractive return potential without assuming any multiple expansion
$NFLX remains the content king — with unmatched scale, global reach, & pricing power
With a long runway ahead & shares modestly undervalued, I consider $NFLX an attractive consideration today at $93💵 (with little margin of safety)
I consider $NFLX a strong consideration with a large margin of safety at $82💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 27x
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.
𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
tweet
memenodes
Crypto holders watching the Santa rally play out in metals https://t.co/pUwGT0sJQE
tweet
memenodes
impressing girls during a recession https://t.co/UU5aalxSOV
tweet
App Economy Insights
App Economy Insights in 2025.
• 50M+ impressions
• 216 articles published
• 600,000+ followers/subs
We published hundreds of stories, but these were the top 1%.
📊 The year’s best visuals & analysis.
https://t.co/BPxVDyNuS6
tweet
Giuliano
There's a special peace in reading before the sun catches you. https://t.co/5h9viKgytV
tweet
memenodes
Earth completes a rotation around the sun
Humans: https://t.co/4kmXgUaAs4
tweet
memenodes
Trump pretending to do something for crypto https://t.co/gzupOczQ0E
tweet
memenodes
Public rejection in 4K is diabolical https://t.co/O8f8UhdF5T
tweet
EndGame Macro
Where Market Liquidity Really Comes From
This is showing that hedge funds have been leaning harder on borrowed money and the borrowing is coming mostly through prime brokerage, which is mostly equity financing and repo, which is mostly fixed income financing. Other secured borrowing…which is a lot of securities lending is up too, but it’s the repo and prime brokerage lines doing the real heavy lifting. What matters isn’t the existence of hedge funds, but how heavily market liquidity now depends on short term, secured borrowing.
What’s Actually Happening Here
Hedge funds don’t just take investor capital and buy things. They layer financing on top with margin loans, repos, and synthetic leverage through derivatives to amplify positions. And this isn’t small. Hedge fund gross notional exposures is above $33T, up nearly 2.5x since 2013, with a lot of that growth concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and interest rate derivatives, the kind of terrain where leverage and basis trades thrive. It also notes leverage is about 2.5x for the industry overall, but it’s dramatically higher where it matters most with the largest funds running leverage north of 18x, with the next tier closer to 10x.
Why This Matters For The Real Economy
In calm markets, this can look like a feature where hedge funds can help tighten mispricings, add liquidity, and deepen markets. The problem is the same thing that makes it efficient also makes it fragile because short term funding can disappear fast. When repo terms tighten, when margins jump, when volatility spikes, this isn’t let’s think it through. It’s sell what you can, cut risk, meet the call. And because hedge funds are major participants in the Treasury and dollar repo markets, that stress can leak straight into the price of money for everyone else in yields, spreads, credit conditions, and confidence.
My View
This chart is about where the system’s sensitivity lives right now. When leverage is increasingly financed through repo and prime brokerage, the weak point becomes the plumbing…funding terms, haircuts, counterparty risk, and forced deleveraging. Banks sit right in the middle of that as prime brokers and counterparties and they can get hit when things go wrong, Archegos is a clean example of how quickly losses can appear. That’s how a Wall Street leverage chart turns into a Main Street issue…through asset fire sales, counterparty stress, and pullbacks in intermediation that tighten financial conditions when the economy can least afford it.
Hedge funds often augment their investment positions using leverage. The leverage sources can be divided into three categories: prime brokerage, repo, and other secured borrowing. Prime brokerage and repo borrowing have increased rapidly over the past few years, as shown in this chart. https://t.co/ep6ItQTBlh
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Dave McCormick just filed up to $200K in new Bitcoin purchases.
McCormick sits on the Senate Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/0tZvw4A7mC
tweet
AkhenOsiris
This article brought to you by Butts https://t.co/ux9Kso9AuG
tweet
EndGame Macro
M2 Hit A Record, But The Rate Of Change Is Slowing
Yes, M2 just hit a record. That sounds like liquidity is everywhere but that’s not how this works.
M2 is a level. It’s the accumulated stock of cash like balances sitting in the system that includes deposits, savings and money funds. Over long stretches, that number almost always rises. Bigger economy, higher nominal prices, more financial plumbing. That’s the baseline.
The mistake is treating the level like it’s the driver. Markets don’t move on the amount of money, they move on the change in momentum of money.
The Rate Of Change Is What Actually Moves Markets
When you look at it year over year, M2 is up about +4.3% YoY as of November 2025 but once you adjust for inflation, real M2 is only up about +1.5% YoY. That’s a turnaround from the contraction phase, but it’s not a surge.
More importantly, the acceleration already happened. The sharp positive impulse, the moment when money growth flipped from deeply negative to positive is behind us. Since then, the growth rate has been decelerating, not reaccelerating.
That matters because markets tend to react strongest at inflection points. The first derivative of growth turning positive gave you relief. The second derivative of growth speeding up or slowing down tells you whether risk appetite should expand or contract.
Right now, that second derivative is flattening. Money is growing, but less enthusiastically each month.
Think of it like the system took its foot off the brake. It didn’t step on the gas.
Why This Isn’t Easy Money In Practice
In a healthy expansion, rising money supply shows up as higher velocity. Cash moves. It gets spent, invested, levered, recycled. That’s when asset prices broadly inflate.
That’s not what’s happening now.
Instead, money is accumulating defensively. It’s sitting in money funds, T-bills, short duration instruments. It’s being used to refinance debt, roll maturities, absorb losses, and rebuild buffers. The velocity side of the equation is still weak.
This is why you can have…
• record M2,
• rising delinquencies,
• weak consumer sentiment,
• higher bankruptcies,
• and fragile risk markets
all at the same time.
The money exists, but it’s being treated like insurance, not fuel.
Historical Context Matters Here
When M2 growth explodes like in 2020 it overwhelms everything. Velocity spikes, risk appetite explodes, correlations tighten, and almost all assets rise together.
But when M2 growth merely stabilizes after a contraction, the system behaves very differently. That pattern shows up in late cycle and post crisis periods where policymakers are trying to prevent collapse, not engineer a boom.
This looks much closer to damage control liquidity than expansionary liquidity.
My View
Record M2 doesn’t mean the system is flush. It means the system is cautious.
The growth rate turning positive tells you the tightening phase is over. The growth rate slowing tells you the easing phase is defensive, not aggressive.
For this to turn into a true risk on environment, you’d need to see…
• reacceleration in M2 growth,
• rising velocity,
• improving credit quality,
• and willingness to take balance sheet risk again.
Until then, money will keep piling up without circulating.
The cash is there.
The confidence is not.
BREAKING: US M2 money supply rises another +4.3% YoY in November 2025, to a record $22.3 trillion.
This marks the 21st consecutive monthly increase.
Money supply is now $400 billion above the March 2022 peak.
Since 2000, money in circulation has grown at an average rate of +6.3% per annum.
Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted M2 rose +1.5% YoY in November, marking its 15th-straight monthly increase.
The US Dollar's purchasing power is deteriorating.
tweet
EndGame Macro
Silver Is Repricing In A Fractured World
Silver at $76 is the kind of move you see when a market quietly changes roles. For years, silver was ignored, dead money unless inflation dominated the headlines. Then, around early February 2025, its behavior changed.
That timing matters. February marked a clear turn in trade policy. New tariffs on China weren’t framed as a short term negotiating tactic, but as part of an emergency posture. That signaled a more permanent break in how global trade would function. Markets didn’t wait for full escalation. Behavior adjusted first.
Silver didn’t explode overnight. It simply stopped falling. Higher lows held. Pullbacks got bought. That was the regime shift. The vertical move everyone’s reacting to now came later, when thin liquidity met forced buying and silver did what it always does, it moved fast and violently.
What confirms this isn’t just paper positioning is Shanghai silver trading above $82 while COMEX sits at $76. When China is willing to pay a real premium, that’s not speculation, it’s physical demand showing up where price sensitivity matters most.
Why China Matters
Put yourself in China’s position.
You’re running a massive and still growing trade surplus. Relations with the West are openly hostile, sanctions risk is real, and the old assumption that surplus capital safely recycles into Western assets is breaking down.
Now look at home. China’s property market, the main store of household wealth is no longer a one way bet. Prices are falling, confidence is damaged, and leverage is unwinding. Real estate is no longer the default place to park savings.
So the question becomes where do you preserve wealth in a deflationary environment?
Capital controls limit outbound flows. Trust in foreign financial assets is weaker. Domestic property is declining. In deflation, leverage fails and growth assets disappoint. That leaves tangible, liquid assets outside the credit system. Gold is the first choice. Silver becomes the spillover.
This isn’t just central banks. It’s households. And in deflation, flows don’t rotate smoothly, they surge. In a market as small as silver, persistence shows up in price quickly.
The Global Layer
This isn’t only a China story.
Globally, silver’s industrial demand keeps accelerating. Solar installations are hitting records across China, Europe, and the U.S. EVs and charging infrastructure add steady demand. Silver gets consumed, it doesn’t come back in a market that’s been in structural deficit for five straight years.
India adds another leg. Despite record prices, physical imports surged again in late 2025. Festival demand and investment buying pulled metal east. Mine supply is flat. Recycling can’t close the gap. Shanghai premiums and backwardation aren’t anomalies, they’re signs of physical metal being absorbed worldwide.
Why Tariffs Are The Accelerant
Tariffs don’t spike prices by themselves. They change behavior.
Once companies and households believe supply chains are becoming less reliable and inputs may cost more later, they stop trusting just in time systems and start buying ahead. Demand gets pulled forward. Spot markets tighten quietly then suddenly.
Tariffs also weaken the old surplus recycling loop. In a deflationary world, when that loop breaks, financial assets deflate first. Hard assets benefit. Gold absorbs the conservative flow. Silver absorbs the reflexive one.
The Part People Forget
This isn’t a simple inflation hedge. It’s deflation colliding with deglobalization, policy easing, broken capital recycling, industrial demand, and physical scarcity.
Silver overshoots. It snaps back. That doesn’t negate what’s happening, it’s how silver behaves when trust, not growth, is being repriced.
BREAKING: Silver prices extend gains to +6% on the day, now at a record $76/oz.
Silver is now on track for its largest monthly gain since December 1979. https://t.co/6pZgLG60OX - The Kobeissi Letter tweet
memenodes
My Bank account vs My crypto wallet https://t.co/35FabtDHlK
tweet
memenodes
men only want one thing https://t.co/QkdSw3K7Jv
tweet
EndGame Macro
More Sellers, Fewer Buyers And a Market That Can’t Clear
Buyers didn’t suddenly lose interest in owning homes. They lost the ability to make the monthly payment work. At these prices and these rates, the math just doesn’t clear so buyers step back. That’s why the buyer line keeps sliding. It’s not panic. It’s affordability.
Sellers are a different story. Many are listing because life forces it with job moves, divorces, rising taxes and insurance, aging in place becoming expensive. But most are still anchored to 2021–22 prices, when everything felt easy. So listings rise without matching demand, and the gap blows out.
Why This Isn’t A Crash… Yet
Historically, when housing gets stuck like this, the first adjustment isn’t a national collapse. It’s a grind. Volume dries up before prices do. Homes sit longer. Sellers cut quietly. Concessions creep in. Rate buydowns replace price cuts. Some listings get pulled and relisted months later.
Back in 2008 credit broke and forced selling flooded the market. Today, inventory is still well below crisis levels, distressed sales are rare, and years of underbuilding put a floor under prices…at least for now.
Behavior has shifted faster than pricing.
Where Trump’s Comments Actually Fit
Trump is saying the quiet part out loud that housing is caught between two competing realities. Homeowners want prices to stay high because that’s their net worth. Younger buyers need prices and payments to come down to get in.
Those goals are in conflict. And when he talks about lower rates, a new Fed chair, even floating housing as an “emergency,” while also saying he doesn’t want to knock prices down, that’s the tell.
If the plan is lower rates, keep prices up, you’re not fixing housing. You’re trying to restore affordability without letting the asset deflate. That can work for a while, but it usually turns into a loop where prices stay sticky, payments ease a bit, demand comes back… and the market tightens again.
My View
This gap means housing is shifting from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market in behavior, not yet in pricing.
The real breaking point isn’t the headline number of sellers versus buyers. It’s the labor market. If jobs hold, this becomes a long, frustrating grind with regional repricing and real (inflation adjusted) declines. If jobs crack, the standoff turns into forced selling and that’s when the price floor finally gives way.
For now, this chart isn’t screaming collapse. It’s quietly telling you the old housing playbook is broken and the next one hasn’t been written yet.
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Housing Market
Home Sellers now outnumber Buyers by 530,000, the largest gap ever recorded 🤯
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $NFLX 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.42x
•5-Year Mean: 34.87x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.61%
•5-Year Mean: 2.41%
As you can see, $NFLX appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~15% MORE in earnings per share & ~8% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NFLX is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $9.32B
•Long-Term Debt: $14.46B
$NFLX has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 13x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 18.2%
•2022: 14.9%
•2023: 18.5%
•2024: 24.3%
•LTM: 29.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 38.0%
•2022: 24.5%
•2023: 26.1%
•2024: 38.4%
•LTM: 42.9%
$NFLX has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUE✅
•2019: $20.16B
•2025E: $45.09B
•CAGR: 14.36%
FREE CASH FLOW❌➡️✅
•2019: ($3.14B)
•2025E: $9.18B
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $0.41
•2025E: $2.54
•CAGR: 35.52%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 4.38B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.26B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~3%, $NFLX increased its EPS by ~3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 29.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 24.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~15% MORE in EPS & ~8% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NFLX has to grow earnings at a 15.21% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.21%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.54 (28% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $3.24 (28% YoY)
2027E: $3.91 (20% YoY)
$NFLX has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $NFLX ends 2027 with $3.91 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $125💵 … ~15.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $121💵 … ~13.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $117💵 … ~12.0% CAGR
29x P/E: $113💵 … ~10.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $109💵 … ~8.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $105💵 … ~6.3% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume a >29x multiple for $NFLX to have attractive return potential
At 29x earnings $NFLX has ok CAGR potential
At 30x $NFLX has attractive return potential without assuming any multiple expansion
$NFLX remains the content king — with unmatched scale, global reach, & pricing power
With a long runway ahead & shares modestly undervalued, I consider $NFLX an attractive consideration today at $93💵 (with little margin of safety)
I consider $NFLX a strong consideration with a large margin of safety at $82💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 27x
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.
𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
tweet
memenodes
that one girl you see at airport once and never again https://t.co/FZ5WBdCer6
tweet
memenodes
me celebrating a +5% up after a -69% down https://t.co/n182IJAMbh
tweet
memenodes
Crypto Hodlers if there was an award for not taking any profits https://t.co/qvk3bmhuux
tweet