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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
The All-In Podcast
Antonio Gracias Breaks Down SHOCKING Immigration Data 🤯
On E222 of All-In, @AntonioGracias joined to break down recent revelations that his @DOGE team uncovered while working at @SocialSecurity:
THE DISCOVERY:
"We mapped the system from enumeration, that's how you get your number, all the way to the end, went to the offices and saw how the offices operate."
"And in that process, one of our engineers found this data called Enumeration Beyond Entry."
"It had this giant ramp to it, and that just jumped out at us."
"And we're like, okay, what is that? So we dug into it."
"What happened was this program was designed for people that we want to let in, like the CARE Program, which is the Afghans. They would be in this number."
"What jumped out at us wasn't that this is here, because it has legitimate use."
"It's the growth. Why did it grow this fast?"
"That's what we dug into."
"What we find here is that a legitimate program was... the word I use is abused."
THE PROCESS:
"They allowed people that were illegals at the border to come in legally."
"They were giving people, at times, notices to appear."
"And what that allows you to do is come in the country, and then you're scheduled a court date, which is like six years out."
"Six years out is the average, by the way. It could be longer than that."
"And while you're waiting for your court date, you could fill out an asylum application."
"Once the application's in, you can file another form, 765, to get a work authorization."
"Once you get that, you get a 766 and we automatically send you a social security card in the mail."
"No interview at all."
"That is the majority of the growth you see in these numbers."
THE SHOCKING DATA:
"We found that every benefit program we looked at was being accessed by these people."
"1.3M of them are on Medicaid right now, today."
"And by the way, it's just ramping, it's just starting."
"And we looked at voter rolls and we found that thousands of them were registered to vote in a handful of states."
"And then we went even further with those friendly states and found that many of those people had actually voted."
"It was shocking to us. And if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes, I wouldn't believe it."
"And this is the tip of the iceberg."
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AkhenOsiris
Stop advertising this shit to us and pick up the damn phone with your other trump lickers and tell himVix spiking. Highest fear level since covid. Now things start to break. The danger w shock therapy approaches in complex systems - it’s impossible to model the negative reflexivity. Time to make some deals & move on before we cause a recession & lose support for tax reform.😮📉 - Brad Gerstner
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AkhenOsiris
Trump and his ancient retarded cronies are skating to where the puck was...40 yrs ago.
Let's bring menial labor back to the US and stifle the high margin, high intellect tech industry.
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AkhenOsiris
IPOs shelvedShould Discord, Klarna shelve IPO plans until calmer markets? - AkhenOsiris
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AkhenOsiris
Based on the newsflow today on the heels of back-to-back massive market losses (this is all over mainstream news, Main St is scared):
- Bessent might be willing to show some fucking spine according to Fox News
- Trump touts Vietnam conversation
- as per @markflowchatter , tech leaders to visit Trump
I would think the risks this weekend are greater to the upside (unlike the past 8 wks, weekend news was always chest thumping and rhetoric). Let's see.
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AkhenOsiris
All the comments about stability in his department were essentially saying Trump henchmen are toddler-like retardsWhether you agree with his policy stance or not the only adult in the room is Powell. - Q-Cap
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Germany is considering withdrawing $124 billion worth of gold from US reserves after President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. https://t.co/RnByoPt4wl
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: JP Morgan says they expect a US recession in 2025 after this week's events. https://t.co/2bM9cX96XV
It's official:
The Nasdaq 100 is in a bear market following a -6% drop today, the largest drop since March 2020.
US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19th with recession odds ABOVE 60%.
What does it all mean? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/NMOqfmKyyP
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Dow futures extend losses in after hours trading, now down -2,400 points on the day.
Nasdaq 100 futures are down over -1,200 points for a -6.5% drop.
Next week is going to be incredible. https://t.co/nAcyfL0BEY
It's official:
The Nasdaq 100 is in a bear market following a -6% drop today, the largest drop since March 2020.
US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19th with recession odds ABOVE 60%.
What does it all mean? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/NMOqfmKyyP
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Quiver Quantitative
UPDATE: Before the tariffs were announced, Senator Tommy Tuberville closed out his position in Apple stock.
$AAPL has now fallen 20% since then.
Follow here for alerts on when he buys back in. https://t.co/N8xRkIBcyj
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Attempted S&P 500 rally into the close fails, stocks fall to a new low of the day with the index now down -5.8%. https://t.co/ROBT0PekEw
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The All-In Podcast
Chamath's Three Takeaways from Liberation Day 🇺🇸
1) Trump will go through with the tariffs, don't expect a grand capitulation
-- "Trump has had a 40-year view on tariffs."
-- "They're going to go through with this and they're going to see it through."
-- "I don't think you're going to see this grand capitulation."
2) The White House is okay with short-term volatility in the stock market
-- Remember Bessent's quotes on "Main Street over Wall Street" and re-ordering the international trading system
3) Bond yields are down, which will save us hundreds of billions this year
-- "We have $6T we need to finance in the next nine months."
-- "So the singular goal, in my opinion, of the White House, has been move the 10 year as aggressively and as quickly as possible."
-- As of yesterday... you were kissing 4%."
-- "If it had gone in the other direction, 30 or 40 basis points, and it touched 5%, you're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of extra money that would not have been found, that would've had to be printed."
-- "Irrespective of what you think you know, or what you think you like about tariffs, we should all have a moment where we exhale because the long end of the curve is giving us a respite in a storm."
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The Kobeissi Letter
RT @KobeissiLetter: The "World War 3" of Trade Wars Has Begun:
Americans are waking up to the first MAJOR tariff retaliation against President Trump.
China has announced 34% tariffs on ALL US goods with the S&P 500's 2-day losses now at -$3.5 TRILLION.
Here's what just happened.
(a thread) https://t.co/snIbLMV24D
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The Kobeissi Letter
Signs of a bear market:
CNBC sends their first all-caps push notification since March 2020. https://t.co/Fy6lzoRb3v
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The Kobeissi Letter
Here's the real question:
President Trump says China was charging the US 67% tariffs BEFORE his reciprocal tariffs were announced.
Then, President Trump charged China a 34% tariff rate on Wednesday.
Today, China tariffs all US goods by 34%, and assuming this is on top of the 67% claimed by Trump, that's a total of 101%.
What does Trump do now?
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AkhenOsiris
RT @novy_williams: Oct. 2021: @VividSeats goes public, stock has struggled
June 2022: @Seatgeek calls off reverse merger
April 2023: @Seatgeek files confidential IPO docs (hasn't happened)
Apr. 2025: @StubHub hits pause on IPO
What's up with these ticket companies? hollywoodreporter.com/busine…
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AkhenOsiris
I miss that wonderful time in history (4 wks ago) when tariffs were purely a negotiating tactic, and if actually enacted, 10-15% at most.
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AkhenOsiris
Sometime in the year 2100:
Ask AI: What was the market's biggest exogenous shock in the last 100 years?
Answer: Believe it or not, it was when an old orange idiot called Donald Trump took office in 2025. He was able to replicate and in some cases outdo the bear markets due to subprime mortgages, terrorist attacks, and a global pandemic. The speed of the drawdown due to Trump's retarded reciprocal tariff proposals was exacerbated in large part because almost all market participants were caught offsides.
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AkhenOsiris
Maybe a Freudian slip, but Powell just called the current situation "like other crises" when discussing if he chatted with other central bank colleagues
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AkhenOsiris
This 😥
Time to make up and adjust formula 🤦🏼♂️If you update that fantastic tariff formula for the Vietnam removing tariffs.. the tariff for Vietnam remains exactly the same in that math.. - Random Muppet
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Fear & Greed Index closed the week at 4, Extreme Fear.
There has rarely ever been a time in recent history with more fear in the market. https://t.co/VaPjODwwmR
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: China cancelled a deal to sell TikTok to the US this week after President Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs." https://t.co/GnWxOsFK1x
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The Kobeissi Letter
It's official:
The Nasdaq 100 is in a bear market following a -6% drop today, the largest drop since March 2020.
US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19th with recession odds ABOVE 60%.
What does it all mean? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/NMOqfmKyyP
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 ends the week down -9.1% in its largest weekly drop since March 2020, erasing -$4 TRILLION of market cap.
Today marked the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's worst day since March 2020. https://t.co/h02V2tzMR7
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Senator Ted Cruz, a well known Trump supporter, speaks out against tariffs, says they could cause a "bloodbath" for Republicans in next year's midterm elections. https://t.co/RQAC2jw1qf
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 is attempting a rally into the final 30 minutes of trading for the week.
Can bulls get some relief? https://t.co/PNEl8YSfZZ
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The Kobeissi Letter
The U.S. stock market has officially erased $10 trillion since January 20th. https://t.co/oqHc4530h9
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Hidden Value Gems
Every crisis brings an opportunity. Companies that could benefit from the US reshoring. Just high-level ideas without valuation considerations:
1. Industrial Equipment & Construction
Caterpillar $CAT – Heavy machinery for construction and mining
Emerson Electric $EMC – Automation and industrial equipment
Eaton Corporation $ETN – Power management, electrical systems
Rockwell Automation $ROK – Factory automation and control systems
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2. Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC)
Fluor Corporation $FLR – Engineering and construction for industrial projects
Jacobs Solutions $J – Engineering, design, and consulting for infrastructure
KBR Inc $KBR – Industrial and government project contractor
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3. Building Materials & Steel
Nucor Corporation $NUE – Steel production, strong US presence.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) – US-based steel producer
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) – Aggregates and materials for construction
Vulcan Materials $VMC – Concrete and construction aggregates
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4. Industrial REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts)
They benefit from increased demand for logistics, warehouses, and manufacturing space:
Prologis $PLD – Warehouses and industrial logistics properties
Rexford Industrial Realty $REXR – Focused on Southern California industrial properties
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5. Automation & Robotics
More expensive labor in the US incentivizes automation investments:
ABB Ltd $ABB – Robotics and automation (dual-listed: NYSE and Swiss)
Teradyne $TER – Industrial automation and robotics systems
Autodesk $ADSK – Design software for manufacturing and construction
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6. Domestic Manufacturing & Suppliers
Companies likely to gain from localizing supply chains:
3M $MMM – US-based industrial conglomerate
Illinois Tool Works $ITW – Diversified industrial products with US base
Parker Hannifin $PH – Motion and control technologies, mostly US-based
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now down -6% on the day and 1% away from a 15 minute trading halt.
If a halt does NOT occur before 3:25 PM ET, there is no halt mechanism into the close.
Between 3:25 PM ET and 4:00 PM ET, markets CANNOT be halted. https://t.co/1xpBNLTAC6
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