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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
AkhenOsiris
RT @ConsensusGurus: Trump should tweet one word: "LiDAR"
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The All-In Podcast
BESTIES ARE BACK! 🚨
huge week:
-- 12 day war ends in us-led ceasefire
-- how markets digested it + future of the region
-- why socialism won in nyc, what it means for the democratic establishment
-- stocks hit all-time highs completing wild turnaround
-- science corner: aging reversal out of china
-- anthropic and meta get favorable rulings on ai copyright
(0:00) bestie intros: the core four is back!
(1:38) launching all-in tequila!
(7:01) 12 day war ends in us-led ceasefire: what it means for the future of the region
(29:48) how markets digested the last few weeks in the middle east, crucial role of energy independence
(39:58) democratic socialist zohran mamdani upsets andrew cuomo in the democratic primary for nyc mayor
(1:06:02) science corner: stem cell-driven aging reversal out of china
(1:18:09) market at all-time highs after huge turnaround: bull and bear cases; next fed chair?
(1:32:49) ai copyright: anthropic and meta receive favorable rulings
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: The Senate version budget bill is now estimated to add $4.5T to the national debt.
The version passed by the House was estimated at $3.0T.
Many members said the Senate bill would need to spend LESS in order for them to vote for it.
Senate is still working on their version, will keep you posted.
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Investing visuals
Wide-moat business breakdown series:
No. 1 of 12: $ASML — the backbone of modern tech 💎
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Max Miller is introducing a bill that would require airlines to give refunds after delays of more than 2 hours.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
4 months ago I stated:
“Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵”
Since then, $INTU shares gained +40%✅
You can see more of the analysis below👇🏽 https://t.co/L5hDuaVMTh
A quality valuation analysis on $INTU 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.74x
•10-Year Mean: 33.55x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.60%
•10-Year Mean: 3.68%
As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~16% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $INTU is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.63B
$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 22x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 43.9%
•2020: 25.2%
•2021: 19.7%
•2022: 10.7%
•2023: 13.1%
•2024: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 47.4%
•2020: 41.2%
•2021: 27.5%
•2022: 15.7%
•2023: 14.1%
•2024: 16.6%
$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.24B
•2024: $16.29B
•CAGR: 14.40%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 13.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $3.49
•2024: $16.94
•CAGR: 17.11%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $0.76
•2024: $3.60
•CAGR: 16.82%
SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 284.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~2.4%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~2.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 23.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~16% MORE in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 14.37% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.37%) required growth rate:
2025E: $19.32 (14.1% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.13 (14.5% YoY)
2027E: $25.09 (13.4% YoY)
$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $INTU ends 2027 with $25.09 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $802.88💵 … ~16.1% CAGR
31x P/E: $777.79💵 … ~14.6% CAGR
30x P/E: $752.70💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
29x P/E: $727.61💵 … ~11.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $702.52💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
While it’s certainly reasonable for $INTU to trade for 32x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety
Yet, given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵
I consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $525💵, or ~27.60x NTM earnings (~7% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $525💵 I can reasonably expect ~10% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. �[...]
Investing visuals
Simply dollar-cost-average into the $QQQ is probably the easiest way to build wealth. https://t.co/w306EArOI1
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App Economy Insights
💸 How to calculate Free Cash Flow:
Start with net profit, then:
1️⃣ Add back non-cash items.
2️⃣ Subtract capital expenditures.
✅ That's it! Real cash a business can use.
Here’s Apple’s FY24 FCF as an example. 👇 https://t.co/dz4vJzZVhg
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The All-In Podcast
You Heard It Here First: John Mearsheimer Predicted the Iran/Israel/US Situation Nine Months Before It Happened ✍️✅
@MearsheimerJ at the 2024 All-In Summit:
"And Iran is the really dangerous flashpoint because as you know, the Russians are now closely aligned with the Iranians. The Chinese are moving in that direction as well."
"And if Israel gets involved in a war with Iran, we're gonna come in, in all likelihood."
"So this gets at the escalation problem."
"Now, to counter the Iranian escalation scenario, the fact is Iran does not want a war with the United States, and the United States does not want a war with Iran."
"And it's the Israelis, especially Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been trying to sort of suck us into a war because he wants us, the United States, to really whack Iran, weaken it militarily, and especially to go after its nuclear capabilities."
"Because as you well know, they are close to the point where they can develop nuclear weapons."
"So the Israelis are the ones who want us to get involved in a big war with Iran. That's the escalation flashpoint."
"And the $64,000 question is whether you think the United States and Iran kind of colluding can work together to prevent the Israelis from getting us sucked in?"
@friedberg:
"That question will be answered based on who leads the next administration."
Mearsheimer:
"Well, if you believe that it matters who leads the next administration, that's true."
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The All-In Podcast
RT @chamath: PM is awesome. Congrats Shayne.
Polymarket made @TIME’s 100 Most Influential Companies
Turns out the people want the truth https://t.co/eWq4pcNwST
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Investing visuals
12 businesses with near-impenetrable moats.
Starting tomorrow, I’ll share a one-pager breakdown on each — beginning with $ASML.
Who's your favorite?👇 https://t.co/2paYANox2A
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
1/5 Tikr recently unveiled its Valuation Model Hub, empowering investors to input data and estimate potential stock returns 💸
It’s a dynamic tool that lets you leverage current analyst estimates or craft your own projections
Let’s explore how it works with $ASML 🧵 https://t.co/KiC83Xb5Tg
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
With Nvidia $NVDA hitting all-time highs today, this is undoubtedly the chart of the day 💸
Since 2020, its Data Center revenue has soared at a 105% CAGR, driving remarkable growth
A $10K investment in $NVDA five years ago would now be worth approximately $170K 💰 https://t.co/yzJJuJvqYh
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Investing visuals
$GOOGL: Despite AI, cloud, and subscriptions, 57% of $GOOGL's business is still driven by search 🔍 https://t.co/riJDMnVxhH
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Investing visuals
Wide-Moat Business Breakdown Series
No. 2 of 12: $MSFT — The operating system of the world. But it doesn’t come cheap 🏷️
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iinvested
1Q'25 Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund on $LLY, $IOT, $KKR
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/NM0463QOZj https://t.co/ZVPAbKwncr
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Quiver Quantitative
Look at this.
We recently noticed Senator Ashley Moody buying up to $100K of Howmet Aerospace stock.
The stock has now risen 45% since her trade.
Up another 3% today: https://t.co/0XD0aXUf1v
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Investing visuals
$NFLX is absolutely unstoppable lately. It’s now a 1,000+ bagger since going public in 2002.
$10K invested would be worth $10.8 MILLION today🤯 https://t.co/hoGH6IGhsU
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App Economy Insights
🏎️ F1 The Movie is out.
So here's a look at F1 The Business. https://t.co/4QfEmZVSqL
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�𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet
Investing visuals
Which business battle would you like me to do next?
Drop your pick in the comments!
$MSFT is now trading at twice the valuation of $GOOGL despite nearly identical revenue growth🤔 https://t.co/6zLNnjkvaN
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Hidden Value Gems
UK electricity prices include costs of wind farms that are often turned off due to lack of grid in the north.
Quite a sad picture.
This is from an Octopus email I received. The chart is from IEA 👇🏼 https://t.co/4se0EPreDz
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
You know you’ve matured as an investor when the sight of stocks near all-time highs sparks a cautious “bear market” feeling of uneasiness, while a 52-week low or the onset of a bear market ignites an excited sense of opportunity 📈📉
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App Economy Insights
$NKE Nike Q4 FY25 (ending May 2025).
• Revenue -12% Y/Y to $11.1B ($380M beat).
• GAAP EPS $0.14 ($0.02 beat).
• Inventory flat Y/Y at $7.5B.
• Wholesale -9% Y/Y to $6.4B.
• Direct revenue -14% Y/Y to $4.4B.
• Greater China revenue -21% Y/Y to $1.5B. https://t.co/aFCVP8FBWw
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase at $BTBT
The CEO has just reported purchasing $1.5M of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 55%.
This is the first insider purchase that has been reported at the company in over 4 years.
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Senator Elissa Slotkin just called for a ban on cellphones in all K-12 classrooms.
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Sean Casten has introduced a constitutional amendment that would add twelve U.S. Senators, elected in a national vote.
The stated goal is to have outcomes that better align with election results.
Would you support this?
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Quiver Quantitative
Last May, we noticed a U.S. politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
Rheinmetall stock has now risen 269% since we posted this report.
The stock is up another 6% today.
BREAKING: Representative Susie Lee just bought stock in the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, $RNMBY.
She is the first U.S. politician we have seen buy Rheinmetall stock.
Lee sits on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction. https://t.co/hiNwf8AsRK
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App Economy Insights
$AVGO Broadcom Q2 FY25 (April quarter).
• AI revenue +46% Y/Y to $4.4B.
• Revenue +20% Y/Y to $15.0B ($30M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.58 ($0.01 beat).
Q3 FY25 guidance:
• Revenue ~$15.8B (slight beat).
• Adjusted EBITDA margin ~66%. https://t.co/bLRcXJalCv
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