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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Cory Booker just broke the record for the longest floor speech ever.
He's been standing for over 24 hours, with no bathroom breaks.
He has said that he is going to keep going for as long as he is physically able. https://t.co/TUGhS3UfmL
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AkhenOsiris
Fucknick on thin ice, per Politico:
Inside the White House, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been perhaps the biggest proponent of ”Liberation Day,” President Donald Trump’s promised unveiling of sweeping new tariffs on Wednesday. But as the day nears, the potential fallout from those tariffs may well liberate Lutnick from his role in the administration, according to half dozen people close to the White House.While Americans and much of the world brace for a possible season of pain following the imposition of the new tranche of tariffs, Trump’s orbit is ready to play the blame game should things go poorly for the White House. And all the fingers will be pointing at Lutnick, two people close to the administration, granted anonymity to discuss the private dynamics, told POLITICO.“I think people would take special pleasure in blaming him,” said one.
Lutnick spends substantial time in the Oval Office, hyping the president on his tariff strategy and “giving him bad advice — pushing more aggressive tariffs,” the person said.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains the “measured voice” advocating targeted tariffs. Trade adviser Peter Navarro has never been shy about his affection for tariffs, but he’s a known quantity and isn’t seen as shaking anything up. By contrast, Lutnick is “a new voice at the table pushing crazy shit,” in the words of the person familiar with the situation. “I don’t know anyone that isn’t pissed off at him.”
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Nine Republicans just voted with House Democrats to allow proxy voting by new parents in Congress.
Speaker Mike Johnson just announced that the House isn't holding any more votes this week: https://t.co/F2F1hw1nAR
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Quiver Quantitative
Germany just sent 5,000 troops to be stationed on NATO's eastern flank, in Lithuania.
This is its first permanent foreign troop deployment since World War II.
Last year, we noticed a US politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
The stock is now up 151% since: https://t.co/1yeGq69GOe
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed dropped -10% year-over-year last week to the lowest in 4 years.
Over the last 3 years, job postings have declined -33%.
As a result, available vacancies are just 8% above pre-pandemic levels.
Additionally, NEW job postings have dropped -40% since February 2022 to near the lowest since December 2020.
Data provided by Indeed has been a leading indicator for the BLS-provided job openings data, suggesting more weakness ahead.
The labor market is deteriorating.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
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The Kobeissi Letter
Q1 2025 was a tough quarter for US stocks:
The S&P 500 underperformed global stocks by 9.6 percentage points in Q1, the biggest quarterly margin since 2009.
The S&P 500 dropped -4.6% in Q1 2025, the most since Q2 2022.
At the same time, the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US gained +5.0%.
This is a sharp reversal from Q4 2024 when the S&P 500 outperformed global stocks by 10 percentage points, the most since 2008.
Market sentiment has rapidly shifted as recession concerns have surged.
Brace for another volatile quarter.
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The Kobeissi Letter
WOW.
The Atlanta Fed has just revised their Q1 2025 GDP estimate lower AGAIN, to -3.7%.
Adjusting for gold imports and exports, the Atlanta Fed now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Just 2 months ago, they saw GDP growing by +3.8% in the same period.
The revision was due to recent economic data which has shown a slowdown in spending.
Is the Atlanta Fed calling for a recession?
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
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The Kobeissi Letter
Bond investors are worried:
The 2-year breakeven inflation rate has jumped to 3.27%, the highest since the March 2023 Banking Crisis.
In other words, the market expects inflation to exceed 3.0% over the next 2 years.
The 2-year inflation breakeven has more than DOUBLED since the "Fed pivot" of September 2024.
This all comes as long-term inflation expectations have risen to 4.1%, the highest since 1993.
Americans’ 1-year inflation expectations have surged from 2.6% to 5.0% in under 3 months, reaching their highest level since November 2022.
A recession is becoming more likely.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
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App Economy Insights
RT @VoronoiApp: March's Most Popular Creator ✏️
@EconomyApp breaks down the finances of the world's biggest companies—including the Magnificent Seven—through stunning visuals 🖥️
Explore all their work on Voronoi: https://t.co/nbryO7VNB6 https://t.co/Xtsp4Wzpde
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Investing visuals
$GOOGL is down 🔻25% since its February peak.
Meanwhile:
🔹Cloud is growing 30%
🔹Free cash flow is up 214%
🔹Has $73 Bln cash (pre-Wiz acquisition) https://t.co/qrEWb3sHJz
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The Kobeissi Letter
RT @JP_Money_95630: @KobeissiLetter Trade the Trend!
@KobeissiLetter @TKL_Adam Appreciate your info and analysis!
It's helpful when making my setups. https://t.co/jri0HAuBjs
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Quiver Quantitative
Something to keep an eye on:
The Senate will vote later today on a resolution to reverse Trump's tariffs on Canada.
It will be DOA in the House, but I'm hearing that some Republican Senators may vote for it.
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Capital Employed
RT @capitalemployed: 42 ‘fresh-off-the-press’ stock pitches we’ve enjoyed reading in the past two weeks 👇
https://t.co/Kh4IdyFBpa https://t.co/pd9uS5vcZV
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US auto repossessions jumped 16% in 2024, to 1.73 million. the highest since 2009.
Over the last 3 years, vehicle seizures have surged by 600,000, or 53%.
This comes as consumers’ auto delinquencies have also risen sharply.
The share of subprime car borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans jumped to 6.56% in January, the most on record.
Moreover, auto loans serious delinquency rates (90+ days) hit 3.0% in Q4 2024, the highest in 14 years.
US consumers are beginning to default.
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AkhenOsiris
@RadnorCapital
Hi SRADnor, was wondering if you have any thoughts post SRAD's first ever Analyst Day. I like the 27% CAGR for EBITDA through 2027 👋
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AkhenOsiris
Israel wipes out all tariffs on US goods. Trump is winning you fools!
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The Kobeissi Letter
The US economic policy uncertainty index hit its highest level in history, how did the market perform following previous spikes?
Following the 2020 uncertainty surge, the S&P 500 rallied +63.3% over the next 12 months.
The second-highest return was seen after February 2009 when the market gained +50.3%.
On the other hand, in the wake of economic policy uncertainty spikes in 2001 and 2008, the market dropped -17.0% and -9.4%, respectively.
In most occurrences, however, the S&P 500 saw double-digit returns within a year.
High policy uncertainty usually provides long-term buying opportunities.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Lindsey Graham has introduced legislation which would impose significant sanctions on Russia if they re-invade Ukraine after a peace deal.
It already has 50 cosponsors, 25 from each party.
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Finding Compounders
Another great piece by Michael Burry
- Finding Value in Fast Food(1998)
Here he analyses Tricon Global- now known as Yum Brands
He goes through analysing Spin Offs- what should we look for? https://t.co/JjrYBOBxhD
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The White House says President Trump has "made up his mind" on tariffs which will likely be announced on April 2nd at 4 PM ET.
These tariffs will officially go live beginning on Thursday, April 3rd.
We will breaking it all down as the announcements are made.
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Hidden Value Gems
Just sent out my piece on Evolution to the Premium subscribers. Focusing on the downside risks and regulatory changes.
Off to Madrid tomorrow for the Value Spain conference, and then 10 days in Tenerife ✈️🌴
$EVO.ST $EVVTY https://t.co/R0aBOSVc7E
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Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: Market’s sleeping on this cash machine - $PYPL
PayPal $PYPL at a 12.3% FCF yield is REALLY REALLY hard to ignore...
This means you are getting a 12% return on your dollars invested annually if they did not grow at all. PayPal can use this cash flow to pay dividends, reinvest into the business, pay down debt or do buybacks.
They are doing LOADS of buybacks right now and at this cheap of a valuation it's very value-accretive.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Mexico's President says their response to US tariffs will be announced on Thursday, April 3rd.
It's officially "reciprocal tariff" week:
President Trump has called Wednesday "Liberation Day" with 20%+ tariffs coming on up to 25+ countries.
US tariffs will impact $1.5+ TRILLION worth of imports by the end of April.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/WnaIVcApl0
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Department of Justice is seeking the death penalty for Luigi Mangione in the UnitedHealth CEO murder case. https://t.co/yjpuC53Hf0
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The Kobeissi Letter
Newsmax, $NMAX, a cable-news media stock, is now up from $10 to $190 in 24 hours, up +1,800%.
All as the S&P 500 falls into a correction and the Magnificent 7 near bear market territory.
What is happening here? https://t.co/QlcsIvlX0g
What prompts a cable-news media stock to rise +800% in one day?
Newsmax, $NMAX, now up from $10.00 to $97.80 in 1 day. https://t.co/0RXLDYOS2S
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The Kobeissi Letter
Yesterday marked one of our strongest ends to a quarter yet:
Throughout Q1 2025, we increased short exposure into most rallies of 3% or more on the basis of WEAKER sentiment.
This concluded with a large PUT position taken at on March 26th when the S&P 500 traded at 5780.
As shown below, one of our premium members was able to capitalize on a -280 POINT drawdown in 4 trading days.
With the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index now 70% above 2008 levels, Q2 2025 is going to be incredibly volatile.
Furthermore, most down days have come with ORDERLY selling, so far.
We have NOT seen capitulation yet.
@KobeissiLetter Trade the Trend!
@KobeissiLetter @TKL_Adam Appreciate your info and analysis!
It's helpful when making my setups. https://t.co/jri0HAuBjs
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
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Investing visuals
The four stages of every investor’s journey. Beware the loud voices echoing from mount stupidity. https://t.co/zk2BOFcNyf
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