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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Occasionally, your window of opportunity to buy shares of excellent stocks is very small ⌛️
Being prepared & having price targets ready is key. Here are a few examples from my past suggestions:
$MELI <$1700<48<$255<48<$500<24<$82 | 1 week & + 10% since📈
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you can find these posts below 🧵
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Hidden Value Gems
Just received my copy of the @_inpractise book. Exciting reading ahead! https://t.co/K5o7l3USg0
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InsideArbitrage
Immedica Pharma completed the tender offer to purchase all outstanding shares of common stock of Marinus Pharmaceuticals $MRNS for $0.55 per share.
Immedica expects to complete the acquisition of Marinus on February 11, 2025.
Immedica Pharma to Acquire Marinus Pharmaceuticals $MRNS in Cash Deal Worth $151 Million -
🧬Immedica, through a subsidiary, will initiate a tender offer to acquire all the outstanding shares of Marinus common stock for a cash purchase price of $0.55 per share.
🧬The offer represents a premium of 48.65% from the stock’s last close.
🧬The deal is expected to close in Q1 2025.
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Startup Archive
RT @BoredElonMusk: But number go up ⬆️ I don’t understand why this didn’t succeed.
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke explains Goodhart’s law and why he doesn’t like KPIs or OKRs
“Goodhart’s law is real. The moment a metric becomes a goal, it’s no longer a useful metric… No metric by itself is a complete heuristic for a complex business. There’s a million different tensions in a company, and you can’t keep all of them in harmony by optimizing for one thing.”
For this reason, Shopify doesn’t use KPIs or OKRs. But as Tobi explains, this doesn’t mean they don’t value data and metrics.
“We are extremely data informed. We have invested enormous amounts of money and time into systems that give us basically everything at our fingertips… But what Shopify attempts to do is just not over-fit for what’s quantifiable.”
People love optimizing for highly-quantifiable things because there’s immediate gratification that comes from seeing a number go up. But Tobi thinks that the most important aspects of a product are rarely quantifiable:
“The overlap of the most valuable things you can do with a product and the things that happen to be fully quantifiable are like maybe 20%. Which leaves 80% of a value space unaddressable by the people who only look at quantifiable things.”
He continues:
“Shopify is comfortable with unquantifiable things like taste, quality, passion, love, hate… The sort of deep satisfaction that a craftsperson feels when they’ve done a job well is actually a better proxy if you allow it to be.”
They then have robust analytics systems that tell the company if something’s wrong or a new rollout breaks something.
“We think about it as a cockpit for a pilot. The decisions are still made by pilots, and we think this leads to better results… I think there needs to be more acceptance in business of unquantifiable things… And then metrics take a support function.”
Video source: @lennysan (2025)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Focus CM on Kingsgate Consolidated Limited $KCN AU
Thesis: Kingsgate is an undervalued Australian gold mining company poised to generate significant cash flow from its recently reopened Chatree mine in Thailand, forecasting robust production and profitability in the coming years.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Capital Employed
FRESH OFF THE PRESS 🔥
Investor interview #107 with Sam and Joel from Chess Capital.
They provide a fantastic breakdown of two UK small caps there bullish on. 👇
https://t.co/O64YwQslhE https://t.co/vW4zExKZmI
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Patient Capital Management on IAC Inc. $IAC US
Thesis: IAC Inc. is poised for value creation through strategic asset spin-offs and an attractive valuation that highlights untapped potential in its private holdings.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/Hx4xa1cNCS
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
I think it’s time for investors to begin appreciating $AMZN earnings & margin expansion potential
Historically, EPS wasn’t the best way to value $AMZN, but now it trades for slightly less than ~40x TTM (FY 24 EPS of $5.15), likely growing at ~20% a year for the next few years 💸
Amazon $AMZN Q4 2024 Report 🗓️
✅ Revenues: $187.8B (+10% YoY)
✅ Operating Income: $21.2B (+60% YoY)
✅ Net Income: $20.0B (+88% YoY)
☁️ AWS Revenue: $28.7B (+19% YoY)
💸 Ads Revenue: $17.3B (+18% YoY) https://t.co/JddBGLylqZ
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Amazon $AMZN Q4 2024 Report 🗓️
✅ Revenues: $187.8B (+10% YoY)
✅ Operating Income: $21.2B (+60% YoY)
✅ Net Income: $20.0B (+88% YoY)
☁️ AWS Revenue: $28.7B (+19% YoY)
💸 Ads Revenue: $17.3B (+18% YoY) https://t.co/JddBGLylqZ
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Heartland Value Fund on Delek US Holdings, Inc. $DK US
Thesis: Delek US Holdings, Inc. is substantially undervalued at $17 with an estimated worth of $31 per share, driven by potential recovery in diesel demand and strategic management actions.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/R9EGsFnnR6
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Aristotle Core Equity on GE Aerospace $GE US
Thesis: GE Aerospace is poised for strong growth in its commercial engine business, aiming for $10 billion in annual operating profit by 2028 and significant returns to shareholders.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/gvoUWZyBeG
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Startup Archive
Elon Musk: “Be useful… Stuff doesn’t need to change the world to be good.”
Sam Altman asks Elon what he would work on today if he was 22 and looking to have a big impact.
Elon responds:
“First of all, I think if somebody is doing something that is useful to the rest of society, I think that’s a good thing… Stuff doesn’t need to change the world to be good.”
In college, Elon thought the five most important things to work on were making life multi-planetary, accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, the internet, genetics, and AI. But he did not expect to be involved in all of those things.
“At the time in college, I thought helping with electrification of cars was how I would start out. And then I put [pursuing a PhD at Stanford] on hold to start an Internet company in 1995 because there does seem to be a time for particular technologies… and I wasn’t entirely certain the technology I’d be working on [in the PhD program] would actually succeed. You can get a doctorate on many things that ultimately do not have a practical bearing on the world. I really was just trying to be useful. That’s the optimization. What can I do that would actually be useful?”
When Sam asks what the best way for someone to be useful is, Elon responds:
“Whatever the thing is that you’re trying to create—what would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect? So that’s why I think something that makes a big difference but affects a small or moderate number of people is great. As is something that makes even a small difference but affects a vast number of people… The area under the curve would actually be roughly similar for those two things.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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InsideArbitrage
Globus Medical $GMED Acquires Nevro $NVRO in an All-Cash Transaction for $250 Million :
⚕️As per the terms of the agreement, Globus Medical will acquire all shares of Nevro for $5.85 per share, representing a 16.53% premium from the stock’s last close.
⚕️The completion of the transaction is expected in the late second quarter of 2025.
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Tim Burchett just said:
"I agree with @AOC. Members of Congress should not be allowed to trade individual stocks."
We have not seen Burchett or AOC buy any stocks while in Congress.
Neither of them have any individual stocks in their portfolios. https://t.co/dyJtanbiZK
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InsideArbitrage
RT @Reuters: Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida met with his Honda counterpart Toshihiro Mibe to tell him he wants to scrap their memorandum of understanding to discuss a possible merger, one person with knowledge of the matter said https://t.co/QB5KzWD8Ec
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InsideArbitrage
$PIPR announces a $150 million (~3% of its current market cap) share repurchase program following the recent special dividend announcement
Muted Share Repurchase Activity: No repurchases in 2023 & 2024 - Instead, has been diluting its shares outstanding by 6% over the last 2 years
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Startup Archive
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke: It’s impossible to make great products if you don’t give a sh*t
“Every product in the world, at the end of the day, is simply a reflection of how much the people who created it gave a sh*t… It is not possible to make great products if the people who work on it do not give a sh*t about the product.”
Tobi continues:
“I actually think this is a very important role for product leaders: To make sure that the team gives a sh*it… The product leader has to give a sh*t. Do not engage in work on a product that you don’t care about.”
Tobi believes anyone who wants to build great products has two roles:
1. “You have to understand the thing that’s being done better than everyone else.”
2. “You’ve got to be exothermically infectious with actually caring about this thing because just that one thing alone will make a 10x better product. It’s crazy how much of a change this makes.”
Video source: @lennysan (2025)
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 2 years ago, when $ELF traded at $104, I predicted a potential 30-40% downturn 📉
Since then, the stock trades -37% lower 🎯 https://t.co/ttf7scPOm4
On June 6, 2023 I stated: “I wouldn’t be surprised to see $ELF trade 30-40% lower if the fundamentals don’t substantially improve”
$ELF is now down -16% since
“In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine. But in the long run, it is a weighing machine” — Ben Graham 🗣️ https://t.co/CZcMcvJpa9
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InsideArbitrage
Alumis $ALMS to Acquire Acelyrin $SLRN in an All-Stock Deal :
💊Under the terms of the agreement, Acelyrin stockholders will receive 0.4274 shares of Alumis common stock for each share of Acelyrin common stock owned. The deal is valued at $2.82 per share, representing a 48.42% premium from the stock’s last close.
💊The transaction is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2025. Post completion, Alumis stockholders will own about 55% of the combined company, while Acelyrin stockholders will hold about 45%.
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InsideArbitrage
Veritas Is Said in Talks to Acquire Data Firm Dun & Bradstreet $DNB - Bloomberg
📊The private equity firm is talking to banks about financing a potential take-private of the Jacksonville, Florida-based company.
📊The deal under discussion would value Dun & Bradstreet at or around its current market capitalization of about $5.4 billion.
📊Options that Dun & Bradstreet is considering also include separating its finance and risk unit from the sales and marketing business. It’s talking to potential strategic buyers for those assets.
Dun & Bradstreet $DNB confirmed that it has received inbound interest from third parties and has retained Bank of America $BAC to assist with those inquiries.
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App Economy Insights
$GOOG $NFLX YouTube ads alone outpaced Netflix’s total revenue in Q4.
But here’s the real twist:
👉 When you factor in Subscriptions (TV, Premium, Music, NFL Sunday Ticket), YouTube’s total revenue is ~1.5x Netflix’s. 👀🍿
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App Economy Insights
$AMZN Amazon Q4 FY24:
• Revenue +10% Y/Y to $187.8B ($0.5B beat).
• Operating margin 11% (+4pp Y/Y).
• FCF $38B TTM.
• Q1 Guidance: ~$153B ($5B miss).
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +19% Y/Y to $28.8B.
• Operating margin 37% (+7pp Y/Y). https://t.co/o8X8UXRGQ8
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Hidden Value Gems
Surprised by the third most popular answer 🙂
If you use ChatGPT to summarise earning calls of your portfolio companies (instead of listening/reading transcripts), you probably hold too many stocks. Do you agree?
- Yes
- No
- I am ChatGPT/DeepSeek etc
- I dont understand the Q
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App Economy Insights
$GOOG Google Cloud visualized https://t.co/SiAwMhuVII
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Novo Nordisk $NVO Reports a Strong Q4✅
✅Rev*: $12.26B vs $11.34B (est) | +28% YoY
✅EPS*: $0.91 vs $0.83 (est) | +28% YoY
*In USD
**Full Year results below (in DKK) 👇🏽 https://t.co/HpH9orVsHK
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Representative Andy Ogles has proposed legislation to use USAID funding to fund deportations.
Follow here for updates. https://t.co/pgfTy63Kio
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InsideArbitrage
Online Payments Firm Paysafe $PSFE Weighs Sale After Getting Takeover Interest - Bloomberg
💰Paysafe is working with a financial adviser as it explores options.
💰Paysafe is also studying the potential disposal of non-core assets that could take place before the sale of the company.
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $OLN has just reported purchasing $203K of the company's stock, his first insider purchase since taking over as CEO last March.
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Hidden Value Gems
Makes me think whether #Kering really has a moat or just sells expensive (high-margin) stuff with a hit-or-miss approach.
Was on my Luxury Goods watchlist, but the difference with the ones like Richemont, LVMH and Hermes is huge. https://t.co/SWbPqQM2UJ
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InsideArbitrage
RT @business: Nissan is seeking out a new partner as it prepares to end negotiations to form a joint holding company with Honda, people familiar with the matter said. https://t.co/xB23Vk3Jro
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