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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Quiver Quantitative
Almost missed this:
Rep. Maria Salazar has bought stock in Antero Resources, $AR.
This is the first time we have seen Salazar buy the stock.
It's a hydrocarbon exploration company, with huge natural gas reserves.
Salazar sits on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. https://t.co/HetntDfmNO
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Investing visuals
Intel’s stock $INTC is up 14% in the past week, thanks to some major deals. However, the company has faced ongoing challenges for some time.
Do you think $INTC will be able to turn the tide? 🔁 https://t.co/5yJjrNKypq
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App Economy Insights
🌎 12 Global Titans in 40 Visuals.
☁️ Cloud Wars.
💉 GLP-1 Boom.
⚙️ NVIDIA's Surge.
💰 Buffett's Portfolio.
📊 Advertising Trends.
Visualize all the Q2 insights. 👇
https://t.co/HDpQv4CcnX
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Librarian Capital
Apologies to Bill Ackman: I was unfair about him
Turns out he was going to complain about Disney to the Southeastern Conference, an American college athletic conference, not the Securities & Exchange Commission
(joke)
h/t dw_cheek at the other place https://t.co/tViTFVVbFf
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Librarian Capital
Donald Trump: "The SEC ... for political reasons, delayed us for an inordinate amount of time, therefore hurting the stock very badly?"
Bill Ackman: "The SEC understands the importance of the US securities market ... it is one of the most non-partisan of our government agencies" https://t.co/uyWHe1uLAY
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Librarian Capital
Societe BIC $BB makes pens, lighters & razor blades
Market cap €2.6bn
At least 2 of these 3 categories are in structural decline
But share price is "only" flat in the past 5 years
If you bought at 2019 year-end (at €62), you would have made ~18% in~5 years, all from dividends https://t.co/ZdpRfZEmgB
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Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #88 https://t.co/IgdbzVe7gx
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: “An investor should act as though he had a lifetime investment decision card with just twenty punches on it.”
— Warren Buffett 🗣️
#stocks #investing 👇🏽
Warren Buffett's quote highlights the importance of discipline and patience in investing. By limiting ourselves to just 20 “punches” or investment decisions, we're forced to be extremely selective and focus on only the most exceptional opportunities.
This mindset helps investors avoid:
• Diversification for its own sake, which can lead to mediocre returns
• Emotional decisions driven by FOMO or short-term market volatility
• Over-trading, which can result in lower overall performance
By adopting this approach, investors can:
• Develop a deeper understanding of their investments, leading to more informed decisions
• Cultivate patience, allowing them to wait for the right moments to invest
• Build a concentrated portfolio of high-quality businesses with strong potential for long-term growth
Ultimately, Buffett's quote encourages us to think like business owners, not traders.
By being highly selective and patient, we can increase our chances of achieving outstanding returns and building long-term wealth
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Hidden Value Gems
Interesting charts: US mid-caps (S&P 400) are as cheap as small-caps (S&P 600) but are more profitable.
h/t @FT https://t.co/Z1hvLIeXx9
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AkhenOsiris
The "China stimulus bazooka" prediction has been around as long as the "NVDA is done" prediction (since around $400 share price). Maybe both will happen soon!
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Librarian Capital
I am trying out new options on earnings call transcripts
What do people recommend?
(replies are open below)
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Ahmad Jivraj
From humble beginnings to global entertainment powerhouse, here are 10 historical facts about $NFLX
1. Netflix was founded in 1997 by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph. The idea allegedly came to Hastings after he was charged a $40 late fee for a VHS rental of "Apollo 13".
2. Initially, Netflix's business model was based on DVD rentals by mail. They launched their website in 1998 with about 925 titles available for rent.
3. Netflix's iconic red envelopes for DVD mailings were chosen because they stood out in the mail and were easy for customers to recognize.
4. The company introduced its subscription model in 1999. By 2003, they had over one million subscribers.
5. Netflix's first attempt at streaming was in 2007 with "Watch Now". The initial offering allowed subscribers to watch about 1,000 movies and TV shows on their computers.
6. In 2010, Netflix made a crucial pivot by expanding internationally, first to Canada. This marked the beginning of its global expansion strategy.
7. Netflix began producing original content in 2013 with "House of Cards". This political drama was the first online-only series to receive major Emmy nominations.
8. The term "Netflix and chill" entered popular culture around 2014-2015. Originally meant literally, it quickly became a euphemism for "romantic encounters" :)
9. In 2017, Netflix introduced an interactive storytelling format with "Puss in Book: Trapped in an Epic Tale", allowing viewers to make choices that influence the story.
10. Netflix has a unique corporate culture. They have a famous "keeper test" - managers are encouraged to ask themselves if they would fight to keep an employee if they were to quit.
The company's story is marked by bold decisions, technological innovation, and a willingness to disrupt both their own business model and the entertainment industry at large.
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Quiver Quantitative
We recently posted this report.
It seemed notable to us that a GOP lawmaker was buying stock in a renewable energy company.
$CWEN has now risen 26% since then. https://t.co/h46tJYALcK
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Librarian Capital
Someone much more witty than me recently tweeted:
"I don’t know what [x] is but the worst people keep blabbering on and on so it must be retarded"
This is very true, and also works well on stocks
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Quiver Quantitative
🚨 BREAKING: Senator Elizabeth Warren has called for JPOW to cut rates by 75bps this week: https://t.co/qaRMwl6i1m
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Librarian Capital
RT @beckpeterson: No better evidence of a shadow ban than the fact that this story is going viral on LinkedIn https://t.co/JYjM5JVf3A
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Capital on Glaukos Corporation $GKOS US
Thesis: Glaukos is set to revolutionize glaucoma treatment with its innovative iDose device, capturing a significant share of a large, underserved market
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/Y4aIsg2SGY
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Librarian Capital
"Vikram Kumar’s Hedge Fund Kuvari to Return External Capital" (Bloomberg)
"His hedge fund has posted 9% annualized return before fees since its debut in 2013, he said"
BEFORE fees!
"Assets have shrunk below $1bn from a peak $2bn"
Hedge fund Kuvari Partners is preparing to return all external capital as its founder Vikram Kumar turns the investment firm into a family office https://t.co/KAymQ2lcih
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 20.09x
•5-Year Mean: 17.67x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.12%
•5-Year Mean: 5.97
As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~12% LESS in earnings per share & ~30% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMAT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $9.10B
•Long-Term Debt: $6.16B
$AMAT has a great balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 32x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 24.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 43.2%
•2023: 34.2%
•LTM: 30.5%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.9%
•2020: 38.5%
•2021: 51.6%
•2022: 53.4%
•2023: 48.0%
•LTM: 43.9%
$AMAT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.51B
•2023: $26.52B
•CAGR: 13.44%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $0.43B
•2023: $7.59B
•CAGR: 33.25%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.59
•2023: $8.05
•CAGR: 29.86%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.22B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.84B
By reducing its shares outstanding 31%, $AMAT increased its EPS by 45% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 29.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% LESS in EPS & ~30% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMAT has to grow earnings at a 10.05% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (10.05%) required growth rate:
2024E: $8.52 (5.9% YoY) *FY Oct
2025E: $9.79 (14.8% YoY)
2026E: $11.09 (13.3% YoY)
$AMAT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMAT ends 2026 with $11.09 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $266.16💵 … ~18.8% CAGR
22x P/E: $243.98💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
21 P/E: $221.80💵 … ~11.6% CAGR
20x P/E: $221.80💵 … ~9.1% CAGR
18x P/E: $199.62💵 … ~3.8% CAGR
As you can see, $AMAT appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >21x earnings, a multiple well above its 10-year mean & on the higher end of its historical range
Of course demand for semiconductor equipment & materials is expected to see a huge increase over the next several years & this has gotten priced in, to an extent
So $AMAT could justify its current multiple if estimates continue to be fairly aggressive & the company executes (as they have over the last few quarters)
However, those looking to accumulate today leave themselves with no margin of safety — and we know how volatile semiconductors can be at times of uncertainty
Today at $187💵 $AMAT appears to be slightly rich
I’d reconsider $AMAT closer to $160💵 or ~14% below today’s price .. where I can reasonably expect ~11.8% CAGR while assuming 18x earnings
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Librarian Capital
Is calling the SEC the HF billionaire version of swatting? https://t.co/v4AoINJi3s
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Librarian Capital
$HAYPP: Based on our tweets*, do you think we are:
(* We had studiously avoided tweeting about it until 6-Sep, except copying it once on an Altria tweet in Jul)
- Long Haypp actually
- Bullish intellectually
- Short outright
- Bearish intellectually
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Librarian Capital
British American Tobacco management changes
Kingsley Wheaton Chief Strategy & Growth Officer (CS&GO) job abolished; to be Chief Corporate Officer (newly created)
Luciano Comin to be Chief Marketing Officer (Wheaton's old job until CS&GO job was created in Sep-22)
$BATS $BTI https://t.co/CA934t1A6W
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Hidden Value Gems
US vs Europe stock markets by sector weights and differences in capital investments. US is much about Tech than Europe.
via @WSJ https://t.co/y9loYAG6OV
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Quiver Quantitative
Not often that you see clips like this.
Matt Gaetz agreeing with Elizabeth Warren: https://t.co/bVRUgwMMqm
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Equam on KLX $KLXI US
Thesis: KLX offers a strong recovery play in the oil and gas sector, with recent business improvements and reduced leverage positioning it well for future growth despite current market challenges
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/jo5t0Au4ay
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Librarian Capital
Diageo: EBIT margin now ~3% below pre-COVID (32%)
Margin fell to 30% in FY20-21 w/ COVID channel shift
Travel Retail and On Trade were higher margin
Margin recovered to 31% in FY22-23 with re-opening
Down to 29% in FY24 with inflation, LAC sales decline
$DGE $DEO https://t.co/HqehAElCgB
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Capital on TSMC $TSM US
Thesis: TSMC is set to lead the next wave of AI-driven chip demand, capitalizing on its dominant position and unmatched technology to deliver sustained growth
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/HWYo0gdSIZ
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harris Associates on Etsy $ETSY US
Thesis: Etsy presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity as it continues to expand internationally and recapture growth momentum, offering significant upside following its recent sell-off
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/uXiRE1OaTg
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Librarian Capital
"Governor Tim Walz, he put a 95% tax on ZYN"
95% is the standard tax rate for all tobacco products in Minnesota (subject to certain $ minimums), including moist snuff, cigarettes and vapes, so this merely puts nicotine pouches on the same footing $PM $MO
https://t.co/8ExWJbjKfT https://t.co/czacnCz0Gd
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Calculating ROIC Contest (Tutorial):
$GIS in <90 seconds https://t.co/ilpa004b37
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