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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
At what price is Mastercard $MA a buy? Well, it depends on your required rate of return* 👇🏽
1️⃣ Starting Price $490 🟠
31x P/E:$600.16💵 … ~10.05% CAGR
30x P/E: $580.80💵 … ~8.46% CAGR
29x P/E: $561.44💵 … ~6.83% CAGR
___
2️⃣ Starting Price $470 🟡
31x P/E:$600.16💵 … ~12.12% CAGR
30x P/E: $580.80💵 … ~10.49% CAGR
29x P/E: $561.44💵 … ~8.83% CAGR
___
3️⃣ Starting Price $450 🟢
31x P/E:$600.16💵 … ~14.32% CAGR
30x P/E: $580.80💵 … ~12.66% CAGR
29x P/E: $561.44💵 … ~10.97% CAGR
___
*Assumptions: Fiscal Year ending in 2026, using 2026 EPS Estimate of $19.36 🧮
#stocks #investing
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Startup Archive
Paul Graham: “In the best startups each founder is king of their own domain”
Paul gives Apple as an example:
“Woz was not a super forceful person, but he did not let Steve Jobs change anything about the Apple I computer. There was one thing [Jobs] wanted to change. I think fewer expansion slots. And Woz said no. Steve Jobs knew where the limits were.”
He continues:
“Woz didn’t give a damn about the business stuff, so Steve Jobs was off selling the thing and Woz built it. They were each masters of their own domain. That’s the model that works. That’s how you have multiple people who are each extremely effective without stepping on one another’s toes.”
Video source: @twistartups @Jason (2014)
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Investing visuals
Pepsi Earnings update✨
🔹Revenue: $23.32B vs est. $23.8B (miss🔴)
🔹EPS: $2.31 vs est. $2.30 (slight beat🟢)
🔹Unchanged FY EPS guidance
Shares are down -1% in pre-market trading 📉
CocaCola $KO will report Q3 2024 on October 23.
An iconic business battle: Pepsi $PEP vs. CocaCola $KO 🥊 Who’s your pick?
❤️ Like for Pepsi $PEP
🔁 Retweet for CocaCola $KO
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Librarian Capital
Not pump & dump, Saudi SWF & Nintendo edition
$NTDOY
How it started . . .
How it's going. https://t.co/LGkfU9tmLN
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Hidden Value Gems
I am excited to announce the launch of the third Investment Masterclass. I will share:
➡️How I apply my unique investment method in practice to generate above-average returns
➡️Where to find new investment ideas
➡️Practical application of critical valuation tools and methods
➡️Portfolio management (position weights, taking profits and dealing with losers)
➡️How to avoid typical investment mistakes
Participants will receive a complimentary Investment Analysis package (proprietary Excel templates for valuation and financial analysis and an Investment Checklist).
Register today to secure your place and receive an early-bird discount 👇🏽
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Librarian Capital
$HAYPP shares now 30%+ down from 3-Sep peak https://t.co/EflCOfE1jq
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Librarian Capital
Spirax $SPX price & valuation snapshots (Evenlode)
"Significant valuation de-rating (from 45x to 23x)"
"Operational headwinds" include "Covid-related destocking at Watson-Marlow’s biopharmaceutical customers, and the global downturn in industrial production demand" https://t.co/J1TfRon8AO
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Librarian Capital
"China Slaps Levy on European Brandy" (Bloomberg)
"Importers will have to pay a deposit of as much as 39% of the value of brandy ... The document specifically mentioned European spirits makers controlled by Remy Cointreau SA and Pernod Ricard SA"
$RCO -7%, $RI -3.5%
China imposed a levy on brandy from the European Union, escalating a trade dispute days after the bloc’s decision to boost tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles https://t.co/4Eb5zraS2G
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Hidden Value Gems
Great piece by @paulg on whether you should follow your passion: “When To Do What You Love”
🧵👇🏼
1️⃣ “If your main goal is to make money, you can't usually afford to work on what interests you the most. People pay you for doing what they want, not what you want. But there's an obvious exception: when you both want the same thing. For example, if you love football, and you're good enough at it, you can get paid a lot to play it.”
1/6
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Hidden Value Gems
“[Unlike] inverting and the disinverting yield curves, and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), S&P 500 operating forward earnings has been a remarkably useful guide. We've often observed that it doesn't anticipate recessions, but it is a very good coincident indicator of actual EPS when the economy is expanding.”
@yardeni on leading economic indicators
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harris Associates on Embotelladora Andina $ANDINAB CI
Thesis: Despite political headwinds, Andina’s stable earnings growth and strong market position in Latin America’s refillable bottle space present a unique value opportunity.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/NYu7QUP3PL
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Third Point on Intercontinental Exchange $ICE US
Thesis: ICE’s powerful AI potential, combined with its dominant market position, presents a compelling long-term growth and value re-rating opportunity.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/x44kYgpndd
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Librarian Capital
Weekly Update: trying this out next Monday (14-Oct)
https://t.co/mJT2dePHtQ
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨Insider Trading Alert
New Fortress Energy Inc, $NFE, sees major insider buy:
🔹CEO: ~$49,999,993 purchase on Oct 1
Largest insider purchase in 5 years
The shares traded up 5.4% last Friday, but have dropped 4.5% this morning https://t.co/NE75u9uHCZ
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Investing visuals
✨New: Investing Visuals is now on Instagram! ✨
Get a quick look at all my visuals in one place. Follow me there: @investingvisuals
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Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #103 https://t.co/vGPdXzLDu9
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Librarian Capital
Hypothesis: Elon Musk is just another promoter
Through this, he's raised capital & kept valuations high
Tesla & SpaceX had some real successes because they are in low-return industries stunned by other capital, and Musk did buy some good talent
But there is nothing else there
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Librarian Capital
Pepsi $PEP FY24Q3
Q3 revenue +1%, EBIT +6%, EPS +5% (all ex-FX)
"Subdued category trends in N America"
Beverages NA vol. -3%, revenue +1% organic
Fritzo NA volume -1.5%, revenue -1% organic
FY24 outlook
Revenue +LSD organic (was 4%)
Core EPS up "at least 8%" ex-FX (unchanged) https://t.co/lEOf0cfVHC
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Hidden Value Gems
I am excited to announce the launch of the third Investment Masterclass. I will share:
➡️How you can apply my investment method in practice to generate solid returns
➡️Where to find new investment ideas
➡️Practical application of critical valuation tools and methods
➡️Portfolio management (position weights, taking profits and dealing with losers)
➡️How to avoid typical investment mistakes
Participants will receive a complimentary Investment Analysis package (proprietary Excel templates for valuation and financial analysis and an Investment Checklist).
Register today to secure your place and receive an early-bird discount 👇🏽
tweet
Librarian Capital
How to use headlines to frame an issue, FT and political donations edition
Unite gave £573.9k to 88 Labour MPs
FT headline: "Unite gives more than £500,000 to Labour MPs"
Arden gave £46.8k to 39 Labour MPs*
FT headline: "Arden funded 1 in 10 Labour MPs"
* as candidates https://t.co/G0Oaw3p6hf
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Librarian Capital
Vistry $VTY vs. inflation:
"Within our Partnerships model we have fixed revenue agreements ... We pass an element of cost risk to our subcontractors, including a sensible level of cost contingency and / or fixed price allowances to cover some level of inflation" (2023 annual) https://t.co/Eo49uvNZKM
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Librarian Capital
Imperial Brands $IMB FY24 pre-close
"Trading in line with expectations"
Tobacco & NGP revenue growth "strengthened" ex-FX
Gained share in US; lost in Germany, UK
FY25 capital return £2.8bn (FY24: £2.4bn)
£1.25bn buybacks
£1.5bn dividends (40.08p x 2)
Quarterly payments in FY26 https://t.co/GFzJ7w1YNk
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Hidden Value Gems
$GKP.L to pay $20m interim dividend and launch $10m buyback, around 8% total shareholder returns. This comes on top of $15m interim dividend in July and $10m buyback earlier this year. https://t.co/0rz9fZ1tOj
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Hidden Value Gems
Missed this @WSJ article on BNSF hiring Ed Harris, the 74-year old railroad veteran who is best known for precision scheduling.
“The strategy aims to cut costs in part by running trains on tighter schedules, removing excess equipment, and trying to get more cargo on a return trip rather than having a train return empty.”
The main conclusion is that BNSF has room for improvement as it keeps underperforming: ‘23 operating earnings down 14% vs 8% decline at $UNP
$BRK.B
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN
Mizuho:
"We recently completed our quarterly AWS customer survey with a leading channel partner. Key points: (1) Increased investments in workload migration as regional banks raised their estimates from $40bn to $60bn over the next 5 years; (2) Enterprise customers are committed to Gen-AI investments; (3) Spending forecast for AWS in FY24 was raised from 22% to 25% YoY growth due to further improvements in core consumption. With that in mind, we have increased conviction on AWS acceleration and our above-the-Street revenue growth forecast of 20% for FY24. While we are positive structurally, the stock could be range-bound near-term due to potential revisions of Kuiper and normalization of margins at AWS. Maintain AMZN at Outperform, $240PT."
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Quiver Quantitative
Robinhood's Chief Legal Officer, Dan Gallagher, is reportedly favored to replace Gary Gensler, if Trump is elected.
We have seen Gallagher, and other Robinhood executives, donate thousands of dollars this election cycle.
Track live on Quiver. https://t.co/BB7uNpYiRm
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Quiver Quantitative
🚨 Elon Musk's America PAC has been ramping up spending.
We estimate that $11M has already been spent so far this month.
Here's where that money has been going 🧵 https://t.co/2ZIIBkqAAf
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Argenx $ARGX US
Thesis: Argenx’s Vyvgart presents a significant growth opportunity, with blockbuster potential in multiple autoimmune conditions, making it a biotech leader to watch.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/NQwu4yLQgZ
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Quiver Quantitative
This is wild.
We posted a report on a suspicious purchase of Fair Isaac stock by Representative Josh Gottheimer in May.
$FICO has now risen 67% since the trade.
It's a credit scoring service.
Gottheimer sits on the House Financial Services Committee. https://t.co/7F5IfVNXac
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
2 Ways to Check your WACC vs ROIC Calculations (Tutorial)
$JACK https://t.co/P7PY1gZWQu
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