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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
AkhenOsiris
Smallcap trade is dead because *gasp*, the economy is stronger than we thought 😥
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Quiver Quantitative
Hindenburg Research just shorted Roblox stock and called it a “hellscape for kids”
Nancy Pelosi owns $160K of Roblox stock, per our estimates.
This could be interesting. https://t.co/BlOSaQfnHq
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨Insider Trading Alert
Shattuck Labs Inc, $STTK, sees large insider buy:
🔹CEO: ~$44,220 purchase on Oct 7
🔹Largest insider purchase by the CEO in 3+ years
Shares are up 14.16% today since the purchase https://t.co/MNxQ02E2zA
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Quiver Quantitative
Wisconsin's Senate race is now a toss-up.
The GOP challenger, Eric Hovde, might be the first member of WallStreetBets in Congress.
He had capital gains of up to $2M from GameStop, $GME, last year.
He had gains of up to $3.1M from $AMC.
He also traded stock in Bed, Bath, and Beyond and PacWest Bank.
It looks like he has sold almost all of his GameStop and AMC stock.
We estimate that his net worth is ~$320M.
You can track politicians' portfolios live on Quiver.
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Librarian Capital
"Google ordered to open Android to app store rivals after court loss" (FT)
$GOOG cannot:
Pay dev. to launch app 1st or only in Play Store
Force customers to use in-house billing system
Strive revenue share deals with mobile makers to pre-install Play Store or not install rivals https://t.co/w0wvQDXwmq
Google ordered to open Android to app store rivals after court loss https://t.co/zxN2EMG0Fk
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Quiver Quantitative
Canada just released images of a UFO shot down over Alaska last year. The object appears to be a small balloon with a payload, with similarities to the Chinese spy balloon over the US in 2023.
With more objects being sent into space daily, incidents like this will rise, and the need for reliable tracking is growing fast.
BlackSky ( $BSKY ) is one company that is trying to meet this demand. Earlier this year, they secured a multi-million dollar Department of Defense contract to track space objects in real time.
They recently raised $40 million through a share offering, diluting existing shareholders and lowering their market cap to $75 million. It should be noted that competition in the satellite imagery space is growing, making it tough for companies to stand out.
We’ll be keeping an eye on this. Follow along here for updates.
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Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi has made $1.6M in the stock market so far this morning, per our estimates: https://t.co/R3D1nDye4o
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Third Point on Corpay $CPAY US
Thesis: With Corpay's B2B Payments segment set to surpass fuel cards and consistent double-digit growth, this undervalued high-margin juggernaut could deliver significant returns.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/4vLNcah4dd
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Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #103 https://t.co/vGPdXzLDu9
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Librarian Capital
Hypothesis: Elon Musk is just another promoter
Through this, he's raised capital & kept valuations high
Tesla & SpaceX had some real successes because they are in low-return industries stunned by other capital, and Musk did buy some good talent
But there is nothing else there
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Librarian Capital
Pepsi $PEP FY24Q3
Q3 revenue +1%, EBIT +6%, EPS +5% (all ex-FX)
"Subdued category trends in N America"
Beverages NA vol. -3%, revenue +1% organic
Fritzo NA volume -1.5%, revenue -1% organic
FY24 outlook
Revenue +LSD organic (was 4%)
Core EPS up "at least 8%" ex-FX (unchanged) https://t.co/lEOf0cfVHC
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Hidden Value Gems
I am excited to announce the launch of the third Investment Masterclass. I will share:
➡️How you can apply my investment method in practice to generate solid returns
➡️Where to find new investment ideas
➡️Practical application of critical valuation tools and methods
➡️Portfolio management (position weights, taking profits and dealing with losers)
➡️How to avoid typical investment mistakes
Participants will receive a complimentary Investment Analysis package (proprietary Excel templates for valuation and financial analysis and an Investment Checklist).
Register today to secure your place and receive an early-bird discount 👇🏽
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Librarian Capital
How to use headlines to frame an issue, FT and political donations edition
Unite gave £573.9k to 88 Labour MPs
FT headline: "Unite gives more than £500,000 to Labour MPs"
Arden gave £46.8k to 39 Labour MPs*
FT headline: "Arden funded 1 in 10 Labour MPs"
* as candidates https://t.co/G0Oaw3p6hf
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Librarian Capital
Vistry $VTY vs. inflation:
"Within our Partnerships model we have fixed revenue agreements ... We pass an element of cost risk to our subcontractors, including a sensible level of cost contingency and / or fixed price allowances to cover some level of inflation" (2023 annual) https://t.co/Eo49uvNZKM
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Librarian Capital
Imperial Brands $IMB FY24 pre-close
"Trading in line with expectations"
Tobacco & NGP revenue growth "strengthened" ex-FX
Gained share in US; lost in Germany, UK
FY25 capital return £2.8bn (FY24: £2.4bn)
£1.25bn buybacks
£1.5bn dividends (40.08p x 2)
Quarterly payments in FY26 https://t.co/GFzJ7w1YNk
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AkhenOsiris
Hurricane Dimon:
- Crypto is bullshit
- AI is very real
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Librarian Capital
Asset mgmt. businesses are driven by AUM
Alpha's only one of many ways to get AUM
Ideas pitched by promoters often crash, because they are typically bad stockpickers
But they may have made the right decision in which skill to develop
That said, you don't have to listen to them
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Broyhill AM on Baxter $BAX US
Thesis: Baxter’s durable portfolio and expected 4-5% organic growth present a significant re-rating opportunity, as the stock is trading at a substantial discount to peers.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/8HpT74g7Vz
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Librarian Capital
Hypothesis: $IWG is leveraged bet on non-prime office
Only unwanted properties sign with IWG
No scale advantage beyond city-level
So tough competition, tight margins
Downside partly limited by SPVs
For IWG to make money, rent must rise more than what their own leases priced in https://t.co/XOgpl72foU
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Elastic $ESTC US
Thesis: Elastic’s robust AI-driven solutions and flexible platform make it a promising bet in the evolving AI and data analytics landscape
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/GOsMY9SfS4
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App Economy Insights
🛡️ Cybersecurity Earnings
Earnings season revealed AI tailwinds across all layers of the tech stack:
🤖 Chips $NVDA $AMD
☁️ Cloud $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG
📱 Applications $META $CRM $ADBE
Now, cybersecurity has become one of the most impacted categories. 👇
https://t.co/hqyautS6Xt
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Investing visuals
Meta $META keeps hitting new highs lately. Here's everything you need to know at a glance👇 https://t.co/cYIl2UxcqS
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
At what price is Mastercard $MA a buy? Well, it depends on your required rate of return* 👇🏽
1️⃣ Starting Price $490 🟠
31x P/E:$600.16💵 … ~10.05% CAGR
30x P/E: $580.80💵 … ~8.46% CAGR
29x P/E: $561.44💵 … ~6.83% CAGR
___
2️⃣ Starting Price $470 🟡
31x P/E:$600.16💵 … ~12.12% CAGR
30x P/E: $580.80💵 … ~10.49% CAGR
29x P/E: $561.44💵 … ~8.83% CAGR
___
3️⃣ Starting Price $450 🟢
31x P/E:$600.16💵 … ~14.32% CAGR
30x P/E: $580.80💵 … ~12.66% CAGR
29x P/E: $561.44💵 … ~10.97% CAGR
___
*Assumptions: Fiscal Year ending in 2026, using 2026 EPS Estimate of $19.36 🧮
#stocks #investing
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Startup Archive
Paul Graham: “In the best startups each founder is king of their own domain”
Paul gives Apple as an example:
“Woz was not a super forceful person, but he did not let Steve Jobs change anything about the Apple I computer. There was one thing [Jobs] wanted to change. I think fewer expansion slots. And Woz said no. Steve Jobs knew where the limits were.”
He continues:
“Woz didn’t give a damn about the business stuff, so Steve Jobs was off selling the thing and Woz built it. They were each masters of their own domain. That’s the model that works. That’s how you have multiple people who are each extremely effective without stepping on one another’s toes.”
Video source: @twistartups @Jason (2014)
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Investing visuals
Pepsi Earnings update✨
🔹Revenue: $23.32B vs est. $23.8B (miss🔴)
🔹EPS: $2.31 vs est. $2.30 (slight beat🟢)
🔹Unchanged FY EPS guidance
Shares are down -1% in pre-market trading 📉
CocaCola $KO will report Q3 2024 on October 23.
An iconic business battle: Pepsi $PEP vs. CocaCola $KO 🥊 Who’s your pick?
❤️ Like for Pepsi $PEP
🔁 Retweet for CocaCola $KO
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Librarian Capital
Not pump & dump, Saudi SWF & Nintendo edition
$NTDOY
How it started . . .
How it's going. https://t.co/LGkfU9tmLN
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Hidden Value Gems
I am excited to announce the launch of the third Investment Masterclass. I will share:
➡️How I apply my unique investment method in practice to generate above-average returns
➡️Where to find new investment ideas
➡️Practical application of critical valuation tools and methods
➡️Portfolio management (position weights, taking profits and dealing with losers)
➡️How to avoid typical investment mistakes
Participants will receive a complimentary Investment Analysis package (proprietary Excel templates for valuation and financial analysis and an Investment Checklist).
Register today to secure your place and receive an early-bird discount 👇🏽
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Librarian Capital
$HAYPP shares now 30%+ down from 3-Sep peak https://t.co/EflCOfE1jq
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Librarian Capital
Spirax $SPX price & valuation snapshots (Evenlode)
"Significant valuation de-rating (from 45x to 23x)"
"Operational headwinds" include "Covid-related destocking at Watson-Marlow’s biopharmaceutical customers, and the global downturn in industrial production demand" https://t.co/J1TfRon8AO
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Librarian Capital
"China Slaps Levy on European Brandy" (Bloomberg)
"Importers will have to pay a deposit of as much as 39% of the value of brandy ... The document specifically mentioned European spirits makers controlled by Remy Cointreau SA and Pernod Ricard SA"
$RCO -7%, $RI -3.5%
China imposed a levy on brandy from the European Union, escalating a trade dispute days after the bloc’s decision to boost tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles https://t.co/4Eb5zraS2G
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