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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Stock Analysis Compilation
Protean funds on Getinge $GETIB SS
Thesis: Getinge’s ECMO franchise concerns may be overblown, making it an attractive play as quality improvements and potential M&A set the stage for a turnaround
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/8kxLLlZcS9
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: Here's a round-up on all of the new insider purchases that we reported on this week:
Disclosed on 10/11: $BYRN - $28k purchase by CFO. Since then, the stock has risen 18%.
10/15: $DKL - $250k in purchases across 4 executives. Since then, the stock has fallen 1%.
10/15: $MRVL - $1m purchase by CEO. Since then, the stock has fallen 1%.
10/15: $NEOG - $200k purchase by CEO. Since then, the stock has risen 1%.
10/15: $WOR - $100k purchase by EVP/CFO. Since then, the stock has risen 2%.
10/16: $SNDA - $800k purchase by director. Since then, the stock has risen 13%.
10/17: $UPB - $1m+ purchases by 3 insiders. Since then, the stock has risen 12%.
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Quiver Quantitative
🚨 UPDATE: Nancy Pelosi has now made $24,000,000 in the stock market in 2024, per our estimates.
Here's how that compares with the rest of Congress: https://t.co/qJ0sIDo99t
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: These insiders' purchases are looking well-timed so far.
Since yesterday's market open:
$MRVL is up 2.9%
$NEOG is up 4.8%
$WOR is up 2.8%
Here are the three largest insider purchases that have already been filed this morning (as of 10am EST):
Marvell Technology, $MRVL - $1m purchase by CEO
Neogen Corp, $NEOG - $200k purchase by CEO
Worthington, $WOR - $100k purchase by EVP/CFO
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Investing visuals
$ASML after earnings review: Everything you need to know 🔍👇
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Librarian Capital
"Ryanair warns of fewer flights next summer due to Boeing aircraft delays" (FT)
"Delays in receiving planes ... have exacerbated a global shortage of new aircraft"
"Many airlines are flying older and less efficient aircraft for longer"
This can be good for $RTX aftermarket
Ryanair warns of fewer flights next summer due to Boeing aircraft delays https://t.co/Yxr2c1TbOh
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Librarian Capital
Achievement unlocked:
"Blocking the Panama Canal" (@thepanamacanal)
Block enough of Twitter's ads so that they have nothing in their inventory to show you except ads from the Panama Canal, and then blocking that one too https://t.co/MrMgk4lGcF
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Alphyn Capital Management on Brookfield Corp $BN US
Thesis: Brookfield is positioned for strong growth, with its ambitious strategy targeting a 17% annual earnings increase and expanding wealth management assets, led by new leadership
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/V4TThZhC4q
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Ahmad Jivraj
Joel Greenblatt, Columbia Business School prof returned 40% per year for over a decade.
On the first day of class, he told his students: "I am going to teach you how to take advantage of the stock market"
How you ask? Do good valuation work. And be willing to wait 2-3 years. https://t.co/o4FrZSJywJ
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Startup Archive
Jensen Huang on Elon Musk and xAI building the fastest supercomputer on the planet in 19 days
“From the moment of concept to building a massive factory, liquid-cooled, energized, permitted, in the short time that was done. That is superhuman. And as far as I know, there’s only one person in the world who could do that.”
Jensen puts the 19 days that it took xAI to build their supercomputer in Memphis into perspective:
“What they achieved is singular. It’s never been done before. Just to put it in perspective: 100,000 GPUs is easily the fastest supercomputer on the planet as one cluster. It’s a supercomputer that would take normally three years to plan, then they deliver the equipment, then it takes one year to get it all working.”
In other words, this should’ve taken at least four years, but Elon and the xAI team were able to do it in just 19 days.
Video source: @BG2Pod (2024)
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Librarian Capital
Direct Line $DLG: RWC, a shareholder vocally against the Ageas bid, raised their stake to >5% on 11-Oct https://t.co/kgCPfjTizA
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Gehlen Bräutigam Capital on The Gym Group $GYM LN
Thesis: The Gym Group is on a strong recovery path, with membership growth, profitability improvements, and operational excellence positioning it for long-term value creation
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/yo1twu86OP
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Librarian Capital
Lindsell Train's James Bulloch on Diageo:
"There’s a growing sense that the worst may be behind us with easier year-on-year comparisons likely boosting the optics of growth"
Others in the industry (like $BF.B's Lawson Whiting) have been predicting the same
$DGE $DEO https://t.co/24sdvDY3lF
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Librarian Capital
Spirax $SPX: Another investor reducing stake
Blackrock down from 9.88% to 9.14% (10-Oct)
Bad reaction to investor day week before (3-Oct)? https://t.co/JMmBWwCFuH
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Librarian Capital
France: "Exceptional contribution" for large companies (EY)
2 fiscal years after Dec-24
Based on corporate income tax (CIT)
2 sets of rates based on sales
(1) €1-3bn: 20.6% of CIT in Y1, 10.3% in Y2
(2) >€3bn: 41.2% of CIT in Y1, 20.6% in Y2
$OR, $RI in (2); $RCO in (1) https://t.co/0CpHcOD9Tb
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Startup Archive
RT @salestaxceo: The biggest risk I've taken? Starting a company.
I followed a traditional path my entire life.
I worked hard to get into a good school, grinded through college to get a good job, and eventually landed a job on Wall Street.
It was a well-trodden path—until I decided to take a detour into entrepreneurship.
It was terrifying, leaving comfort for uncertainty.
But I knew it was now or never.
There's never a "right" time to take a risk—you just have to go for it.
Success isn’t an accident. It’s a result of risk, determination, and hard work.
The real failure is not trying.
Don't get stuck in "what if." Take that risk and commit.
You might be surprised where it leads.
Sam Altman: “Most people don’t take enough risk”
“I think people have terrible risk calculus in general… almost always A) you’re wrong about what is risky and what is not risky, and B) most people don’t take enough risk—especially early in your career. Being young, unknown, and poor, is actually a great gift in terms of the amount of risk you can take.”
Sam continues:
“I think what risk actually looks like is not doing something that you will spend the rest of your life regretting… So if you really believe in something—if there’s an idea you’re super passionate about—and you take a calculated risk to start a company realizing you may forego a couple of years of steady income and maybe people call you a failure, that’s a great risk to take. And if you don’t take that risk, I think you have a very high chance that you end up regretting that.”
Sam believes most people overrate the risk of reputation damage and embarrassment from trying and failing. It’s worse to not even try:
“One really important thing to strive for in your career is to be a doer, not a talker. And the reason that people don’t do stuff is 1) it’s hard, and 2) it’s risky. And so you have these people that want to dabble in a bunch of different projects, but never be all-in on one… I think that’s really bad. I think history belongs to the doers, and I think you should take a risk and actually do something.”
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Alphyn Capital Management on Amazon $AMZN US
Thesis: Amazon is seeing strong performance in AWS and advertising, with operational improvements such as 'regionalization' driving margin expansion and long-term profitability
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/JWGRRi8UVN
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Investing visuals
Netflix $NFLX paid membership growth. Top notch👌💎 https://t.co/zbhLJY3nv8
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Investing visuals
Netflix $NFLX earnings preview (reporting on Thursday after-hours) 👇
🔹 Revenue: $9.77B (+14%)
🔹 Earnings per share: $5.13 (+37%)
Key metrics to watch 👀
🔹Payed membership additions
🔹Total streaming revenue
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Quiver Quantitative
🚨 UPDATE: We posted this report last month.
$HL has now risen 37% since the trade.
It's up another 3% today. https://t.co/B0FR0oWCUR
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #14 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
Bonhoeffer Fund / Clearbridge / Diamond Hill / Praetorian Capital / Silver Ring Value Partners / Voss Capital https://t.co/D3tMa8uIZU
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
(Tutorial) Tricky, tricky Operating Leases and their impact to Invested Capital and ROIC
$MSFT https://t.co/yQPz9cnb8B
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Capital Employed
RT @capitalemployed: 46 Top Stock Pitches (1st-15th October)💡
This is the biggest and most epic one we have published yet.
46 interesting ‘fresh-off-the-press’ stock pitches for subscribers to work through!
https://t.co/Z8N7AKZNvy https://t.co/RFrYVcoxVK
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App Economy Insights
🏦 US Banks Earnings Visualized
Dive into the details ⬇️
https://t.co/LMbCgCbsSW
🏆 $JPM Surprise Outlook
🇺🇸 $BAC Global Markets Accelerate
🏢 $WFC Fees Offset NII Pressure
👔 $MS Wealth Unit Rebounds
📈 $GS Pent-up Demand
💹 $SCHW Turning Point
🔄 $C Turnaround in Progress https://t.co/Rc0I29l0v8
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Librarian Capital
Must-read career advice for junior bankers
From 27-year IB veteran, former head of ECM at BAML
"A lot of what investment banking involves is salesmanship"
"You have to have a minimum level of competence and smarts, but it isn’t a business that rewards extreme genius"
Enjoyed speaking about the culture of working long hours on Wall Street and the City on the @FT podcast “Working It”. It’s a hot topic….
https://t.co/wocELlbWBN
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Capital Employed
Another batch of Q3 fund letters added. 45 added so far, with more to come.
Read them all here 👇
https://t.co/z8VTurKKQI https://t.co/Ng31Gaf7fG
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Librarian Capital
"UK ministers pledge crackdown on rising car insurance costs" (FT)
Ministers "instructed the (CMA) and the (FCA) to join a “task force” including industry and consumer groups"
Separately, the FCA is launching a "market study" on installment income
$ADM -2.9%, $DLG -4.3%
UK ministers pledge crackdown on rising car insurance costs https://t.co/I2TwZ66smm
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Librarian Capital
FeverTree $FEVR was one of Lindsell Train UK Equity's two biggest detractors during Q3 (price down 23%)
But Nick Train remains optimistic:
"When the good times return, we expect a further surge in Fever-Tree’s revenue growth and its share price"
(Sep-24 factsheet, 4-Oct) https://t.co/Ts65Yc1BfG
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Less than 3 months ago I suggested that $MCD appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment at $261💵
Since then, $MCD is up +18% ✅
As I stated:
“As you can see, $MCD appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >22x earnings, a multiple below its 10-year mean & a multiple that’s not too far off from 20x which is where $MCD has a history of bottoming at — implying a decent margin of safety
Today at $261💵 $MCD appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment, especially for investors looking to establish a position in a strong dividend grower with relatively low volatility” 🎯
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#stocks #investing
A sober valuation analysis on $MCD 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 21.24x
•10-Year Mean: 23.35x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.53%
•10-Year Mean: 4.07%
As you can see, $MCD appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MCD is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $838.00M
•Long-Term Debt: $37.21B
$MCD has a decent balance sheet*, a BBB+ S&P Credit Rating, & ~7x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
* $MCD owns plenty of land, with a total value of $7.08B as of Dec 2023
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 22.0%
•2020: 16.4%
•2021: 21.7%
•2022: 23.1%
•2023: 23.4%
•LTM: 25.5%
$MCD has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES🆗
•2018: $21.26B
•2023: $25.49B
•CAGR: 3.69%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $4.22B
•2023: $7.25B
•CAGR: 11.43%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.55
•2023: $11.94
•CAGR: 7.96%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 726.85M
By reducing its shares outstanding 27.3%, $MCD increased its EPS by 37.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 57.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.2%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~11% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MCD has to grow earnings at a 10.62% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (10.62%) required growth rate:
2024E: $12.01 (0.6% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $13.16 (9.6% YoY)
2026E: $14.33 (8.9% YoY)
$MCD has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MCD ends 2026 with $14.33 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $343.92💵 … ~14.2% CAGR
23x P/E: $329.59💵 … ~12.3% CAGR
22x P/E: $315.26💵 … ~10.4% CAGR
21 P/E: $300.93💵 … ~8.4% CAGR
As you can see, $MCD appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >22x earnings, a multiple below its 10-year mean & a multiple that’s not too far off from 20x which is where $MCD has a history of bottoming at — implying a decent margin of safety
Today at $261💵 $MCD appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment, especially for investors looking to establish a position in a strong dividend grower with relatively low volatility
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Librarian Capital
"Hong Kong slashes tax on spirits to boost nightlife" (FT)
"The duty rate for spirits with an import price of more than HK$200 (US$26) will be slashed from 100% to 10% for the portion of its value above that price"
This is a tax cut for super premium+ spirits only
cc $RCO $DGE
Hong Kong slashes tax on spirits to boost nightlife https://t.co/aIbSDy92Lr
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