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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
App Economy Insights
$AMZN Amazon Q3 FY24:
• Revenue +11% Y/Y to $159B ($1.6B beat).
• Operating margin 11% (+3pp Y/Y).
• FCF $48B TTM.
• Q4 Guidance: ~$185B ($1.3B miss).
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +19% Y/Y to $27.5B.
• Operating margin 38% (+8pp Y/Y). https://t.co/9Euz13z3Bs
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $SEPN stock has now risen 12% on the day after this insider purchase, which we flagged last night https://t.co/3mUHBgtTvl
🚨 Massive New Insider Purchase
Ra Capital Management, who has a board seat at $SEPN, just reported the purchase of $75M of the company's stock.
This comes shortly after the company's IPO, which happened last Friday.
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Quiver Quantitative
Here's how politicians did in the stock market this month.
Track their portfolios on Quiver: https://t.co/4mHiGk0QzY
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Stock Analysis Compilation
1 Main Capital on ParkerVision $PRKR
Thesis: PRKR's potential multi-billion-dollar win against Qualcomm, supported by compelling evidence, and its upcoming cases against tech giants offer a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for exponential gains.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/aBqNueaBDI
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Investing visuals
Microsoft $MSFT after earnings summary: https://t.co/mx2zAvWx6y
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Investing visuals
On red days like today: zoom out. https://t.co/Sg9VMn4hwA
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Librarian Capital
Diageo: 1st sighting of "Spiced Gold" RTD ad (N London)
RTD with Captain Morgan rum + Pepsi Max; 5% abv
UK launch happened a month ago (25-Sep)
Potentially inspired by Jack & Coke RTD
Jack Daniel's whiskey + Coca Cola
$DGE $DGE $BF.B $PEP $KO https://t.co/zUkQ1r0ZzB
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Startup Archive
Peter Thiel explains why entrepreneurship is not a good direct goal
“I don’t think there’s anything about entrepreneurship per se that is good.”
He recounts talking to a friend who said he wanted to be an entrepreneur in 5-10 years.
“That’s like saying I want to be rich or I want to be famous… It’s not good as a direct goal. If you have that as your sole goal, you’re unlikely to really succeed.”
In Thiel’s view, the right reason to become an entrepreneur is to work on an important problem nobody else is working on.
Video source: @Forbes (2014)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Timesquare CM on Timee $215A JP
Thesis: Timee’s efficient platform for short-term job seekers and gig workers has made it a market leader in Japan, positioning it well for growth.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/c6RGB3C00d
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Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: One of Hidden Value Gems Premium members asked us if we knew a talented analyst who could help them with financial research. They are a family office with a five-year history focused on well-managed compounders in protected niches. You can see the full description and contact details below.👇
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Patient Capital Management on Precigen $PGEN US
Thesis: Precigen's PRGN-2012 program offers promising therapeutic potential, with strong leadership and clinical progress, positioning the company for significant growth in the gene therapy space.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/5LUpD5OxoO
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Heartland Advisors on New Gold $NGD US
Thesis: New Gold's improved production efficiency, reduced costs, and strong financial flexibility position it for significant growth, supported by insider buying and attractive valuation.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/cMCUM9aXCg
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App Economy Insights
🔥 Earnings season is heating up!
Catch up with 20 earnings visualized. 📊
Get the full report 👇
https://t.co/LEROzNc3hP
🥤 $KO
☁️ $SAP
🌐 $IBM
🧑💻 $NOW
📶 $TMUS
📱 $VZ
📞 $T
🛰️ $LMT
🛩️ $BA
⚙️ $TXN
🧠 $LRCX
🇫🇷 $SNY
📦 $UPS
💳 $FI
💼 $MCO
🚗 $GM
🛩️ $LUV
🛫 $AAL
🦷 $ALGN
🏡 $APPF
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Librarian Capital
Tobacco $BATS $BTI Spaces discussion in 20 minutes
Apparently people prefer to talk about $PM instead
Please vote
- British American Tobacco
- Philip Morris
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Librarian Capital
Happening in 30 minutes:
British American Tobacco discussion
$BATS $BTI $PM $MO $IMB
https://t.co/zfndjwxV1S
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Librarian Capital
We downgraded Altria $MO to Neutral on 26-Apr
MO shares up ~8% today, now up 24% L6M
Philip Morris $PM up 40% L6M, better (even w/ div.)
But gap has narrowed, the sector rallied right after we gave up on MO (but long $BATS)
I still think we were right
Update coming later today https://t.co/0h6uQmAq5K
"Altria: Gradually, Then Suddenly? Downgrade to Neutral"
$MO revenues, EPS fell in Q1
Cigarette vol. again fell 10%
Oral Tobacco grew modestly
NJOY volume fell q/q, FDA ineffectual
IQOS enters US in May, can scale in 2025
8.7x P/E, 9% Dividend, but risk of loss
See profile link
$PM $BATS $BTI
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Why is $IDXX down -40% from its highs?
Multiple compression.
Be cautious of hefty multiples not supported by strong earnings growth.
80x for a business forecasted to grow earnings at <15% annually for next several years … not the most optimal investment
#stocks #investing https://t.co/kctlejqkz3
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Librarian Capital
RT @John_Hempton: Shows what I understand... I went to bed having read the Regeneron results. Soft beat from a company that doesn't guide much anyway.
Dupixent shooting the lights out (as expected), the Eylea franchise flat against strong competition but high dose growing almost thirty percent.
Solid double digit earnings growth that should continue for some time.
I wake up. Stock off ten percent. News fit around the stock price move.
It is a big position for me, so this hurts, but if someone can explain the market angst I would like it.
DMs are open.
$REGN
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Librarian Capital
Real business people support Harris/Walz. Vote!
I voted for @KamalaHarris without hesitation. When it comes to policy and personal integrity, the contrast could not be clearer, and I hope undecided voters with a history of supporting candidates in both parties join me. https://t.co/BpMWe9Hx6u https://t.co/HvVLkh9dCU
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $IDXX 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 49.45x
•10-Year Mean: 48.50x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.86%
•10-Year Mean: 1.99%
As you can see, $IDXX appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive about the same in earnings per share & FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $IDXX is a high-quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $331.70M
•Long-Term Debt: $619.22M
$IDXX has a strong balance sheet, reflected by its 18.10x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 48.2%
•2019: 44.0%
•2020: 42.1%
•2021: 53.9%
•2022: 43.1%
•LTM: 44.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: (1,195.6%)
•2019: 507.5%
•2020: 143.6%
•2021: 112.6%
•2022: 104.6%
•LTM: 92.8%
$IDXX has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2012: $1.29B
•2022: $3.37B
•CAGR: 10.07%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2012: $164.79M
•2022: $394.15M (LTM is $679.78M)
•CAGR: 9.11%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2012: $1.57
•2022: $8.03
•CAGR: 17.72%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2012 Shares Outstanding: 112.31M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 83.95M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~25.2%, $IDXX increased its EPS by ~33.6% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 59.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 22.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $IDXX has to grow earnings at a 24.73% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2025 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (24.73%) required growth rate:
2023E: $9.86 (22.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2024E: $11.00 (11.6% YoY)
2025E: $12.59 (14.5% YoY)
$IDXX has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $IDXX ends 2025 with $12.59 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
50x P/E: $629.50💵 … ~9.2% CAGR
47x P/E: $591.73💵 … ~5.9% CAGR
44x P/E: $553.96💵 … ~2.5% CAGR
As you can see, even we’d have to assume a >50x P/E just for $IDXX to compound at an attractive rate, an assumption that leaves us with no margin of safety & risk of multiple compression offsetting the benefits of earnings growth
I am not interested in $IDXX at $527💵
Instead, I’d likely consider $IDXX closer to $422💵 (~20% lower from today’s price) which just gets $IDXX near 40x earnings, a level of strong fundamental support as you’ll see in the P/E chart (first photo)
$IDXX reports earnings Monday Before Market Open (February 5, 2024)
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Alger on AppLovin $APP US
Thesis: AppLovin's AI-driven ad tech platform offers robust growth as it leverages data and network effects to dominate mobile gaming and expand into new segments.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/mTtVuoRgJ6
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Librarian Capital
RT @OpenSecretsDC: Building America's Future, the pro-Trump dark money group links to Elon Musk, has ramped up its campaign of Facebook ads posing as a pro-Kamala Harris group called “Progress 2028” with misleading claims about the Democratic candidate’s platform. https://t.co/hHeUTtdzHX
NEW: An initiative called Progress 2028 appears to be Kamala Harris' liberal counter to the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025.
But our investigation reveals Project 2028 is actually run by a dark money network boosting Donald Trump. https://t.co/Uaqs0kYQ3b
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Hidden Value Gems
Missed this. The new CEO of Prosus will receive $100mn worth of shares in Prosus and Naspers if the market cap of Prosus hits $168bn by mid-2028 and stays there for a year.
$PRX.AS $NPN.JO $TCEHY https://t.co/x3GaNvtn8l
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Hidden Value Gems
Europe and UK still look very attractive, at least according to GS. Hard to disagree. https://t.co/pd34WrCM0S
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Platinium on Shinhan $SHG US
Thesis: Shinhan’s shareholder-friendly reforms, including increased payouts and stock buybacks, make it an attractive investment with a low valuation and strong return potential.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/cvFzu8eeRA
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Librarian Capital
"Philip Morris: Picking Up Speed in Q3; Still Cheap at 20x P/E"
$PM's multi-year compounding will likely continue even after a 54% gain in the past year
cc: $MO $BATS $BTI $IMB
https://t.co/AyU25dmeEk https://t.co/WqqSFnpHAU
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Appalaches Capital on Coupang $CPNG US
Thesis: Coupang’s dominant position in e-commerce, combined with its growing user base and long-term revenue growth potential, makes it a strong investment despite short-term volatility and low profitability.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/QCQqbLEmqU
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Startup Archive
RT @FitzDoud: ‘Job to be done’
You can tell Bezos read Christensen.
Jeff Bezos: “You don’t understand my audience”
When Charlie Rose asks him if the iPad is a “Kindle killer” in this 2012 interview, Jeff gives an incredible response:
“It’s a very different product, and I can give you an example. If I came to you and said: ‘Charlie, I love your show, but we’ve got to sex it up. We need fast cuts and vicious arguments between your guests.’ You would rightly say to me: ‘Jeff, I love you man, but you don’t understand my audience. We have a cerebral conversation here. It’s what we do, and it’s how we’re differentiated.’”
He continues:
“When people come to me and say: ‘You’ve got to have full-motion video and color on the Kindle.” I say: ‘Why? You think Hemingway is going to pop more in color?’… You don’t understand my audience.”
Jeff explains that his vision for the Kindle is a purpose-build device for reading where no tradeoffs have been made—every single design decision is optimized for reading.
And knowing exactly who his audience is gave him conviction in the Kindle team’s design decisions—even when everyone at the time was saying that the iPad would crush them.
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Librarian Capital
He is for Trump https://t.co/ALZk1CPkYT
Christian nationalist pastor Joel Webbon thinks the 19th Amendment (women vote) should be repealed, arguing that women should get their voice from their fathers, husbands, brothers or uncles: “This is the Christian position”
https://t.co/qki23ykfTh
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