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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Stock Analysis Compilation
Greystone CM on Leon’s Furniture $LNF CN
Thesis: Leon’s vast real estate portfolio and strategic monetization through an IPO, combined with strong capital returns, position the company for significant value creation
(Extract from their Q3 letter, link to the analysis in SAC#63) https://t.co/ejq1GEoan3
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Ahmad Jivraj
In Crypto, network effects really are impressive => Winner take all markets on steroids.
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Quiver Quantitative
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse just disclosed selling his whole position in Tesla stock, $TSLA, just before the election.
He sold up to $350K of it.
The stock has now risen 45% in the month since his sales began.
He made several other large trades - full list up on Quiver: https://t.co/38Bx29JVGK
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Investing visuals
You can only pick one to hold for the next 10 years.
Who do you choose?🥊
Alphabet $GOOGL vs Microsoft $MSFT https://t.co/KfCrtrprEG
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Quiver Quantitative
Marjorie Taylor Greene bought Tesla stock just before the election.
$TSLA has now risen 15% since her trade. https://t.co/utjRkEf4aF
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Startup Archive
Airbnb founder Brian Chesky explains the concept of designing a 7-star product experience
As Brian points out, the status quo for the Internet is 5-star reviews. But the problem with 5 stars is that the bar is really low.
“If you rate an Uber four stars, your life might have been in danger, right?”
But in the early days of Airbnb, they wanted to design a product experience users loved so much they would tell everyone about it. They wondered:
“What if you booked an Airbnb and you didn’t leave 5 stars, but you emailed the company asking for a 6th star because the product was so you had to almost go above and beyond?”
After some brainstorming, they thought a 6th star might be if the Airbnb host picked you up from the airport.
Then they asked, what’s a 7 star experience?
“Well 7 stars, they don’t pick you up at the airport. They send a limousine, and you open the limousine door and there’s coconut water and they know you’re into surfing and there’s some surfing magazines.”
They did this all the way up to 10 stars, which they decided is Elon Musk picking you up from the airport and taking you to space.
As Brian explains:
“It’s very easy to take for granted that the 5 star experience is what people expect. But to build something people love, you need to do something more than they expect. And every moment is an opportunity to do something slightly more than people expect.”
Obviously Elon Musk won’t be able to take every Airbnb guest to space, but offering an airport pickup service might be something they could offer.
There’s also a really important point here that your product is not just a mobile app or a web page, but the whole experience — every point of contact with the customer is an opportunity to delight them.
Video source: @GreylockVC (2015)
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Hidden Value Gems
Supporting the LfL growth at $JDW.L 😀
Hard to beat those prices 👇🏼 https://t.co/U4q7YIyHAT
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Hidden Value Gems
Congrats to all who voted for Trump! Let’s hope it will be the repeat of 2016-2019, for markets at least 🚀
PS: i am definitely too far from politics, happy for the French Whale 😀
I am far away from US politics but I still cannot understand why the market is taking Trump win for granted.
Seems like a consensus view now but it is far from obvious to me 🤷🏻♂️
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Librarian Capital
Please, please vote to defeat Trump so we can go back to being an investment-content account https://t.co/uTuzGVYUdf
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Librarian Capital
This American spent 15 hours on a flight to get back to Montgomery County, PA, to vote for Harris/Walz
She's doing her part - have you done yours?
Vote!
Source: NY Times; h/t Jason Linkins https://t.co/gtghz5bZ5J
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Librarian Capital
Now on Spaces, Elon Musk saying Trump will win PA
"America PAC" saying Trump will win all battleground states and flip previously blue states
This is NOT what the data is showing
Vote! https://t.co/f3VA7FWkk5
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Ares Management $ARES US
Thesis: Ares Management’s leadership in private credit and resilience in downturns position it for growth and margin expansion in a supportive market
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/XFg5eMexHx
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Librarian Capital
This is hilarious. Elon Musk appears to not know how Google Search works ...
Community Note (proposed): "the search works because Harris is a county in Texas, which Google treats as looking for polling locations in Harris county"
When you confuse Harris County for Kamala Harris.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Wintrust Financial $WTFC US
Thesis: Wintrust Financial’s steady growth, niche premium finance expertise, and regional strength present promising intermediate-term growth opportunities.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/wXXFbrgER5
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Librarian Capital
Schroders: FT profile of new-ish CEO Richard Oldfield
"He did an “outstanding job” auditing HSBC"
"Schroders is essentially a client-facing services business and he led the client-facing activities of PwC"
My guess is he can cut costs but not improve products
$SDR
Richard Oldfield, the accountant tasked with turning round Schroders https://t.co/OMeSvG5GPs
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Startup Archive
Peter Thiel on why all trends are overrated
“I’m always skeptical of sectors and trends. People always ask me what some trends are that I see happening in the future, and I have never liked the question because I’m not a prophet and I don’t think the future is fixed in that sort of way… At this point, I think all trends are overrated… if you hear the words ‘big data’ and ‘cloud computing’, you need to run away as fast as you possibly can. Just think ‘fraud’ and run away.”
He continues:
“All these buzzwords are a tell—like in poker—that the company is bluffing and undifferentiated… We’ve heard the buzzwords before, and so if you’re the nth company in a category that’s well established, that’s problematic… Conversely, I think the things that are underrated are the ones where there are no buzzwords and it doesn’t actually fit into any pre-existing categories… Of course, the challenge is that even the people who are running these companies will describe them in terms of existing categories because that’s so much easier to do.”
One example he uses is that Google would’ve been described as a search engine in 1998. There were already 20+ search engines at the time, but the PageRank algorithm was actually the key differentiating thing. If you simply labeled it as a search engine, that would’ve obscured all of the key differences.
“Figuring out the correct way to think about things in categories for which we don’t even have the proper language is really critical.”
Video source: @twistartups @Jason (2015)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Wedgewood Partners on Motorola $MSI
Thesis: MSI’s dominance in mission-critical communication networks, combined with its expansion into higher-margin software and services, gives it a unique competitive advantage
(Extract from their Q3 letter, link to the analysis in SAC#63) https://t.co/kCXJZegOCc
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #17 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
Includes links to the Q3 letters from 1 Main Capital / Alger / ARAR Fund / Ariel Investments / Clearbridge / East72 / Ennismore / Forager / Guinness GI / Long Cast Advisers / Munro / Nightview Capital / Oakmark / Praetorian Capital / White Falcon Capital
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $CMCO stock has risen another 7% today, and is now up 15% since we reported this insider trade on Monday.
Very good timing by the $CMCO CEO!
🚨 BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $CMCO just reported the purchase of ~$1M of the company's stock.
This is the first insider purchase he has reported in over 4 years. https://t.co/HebWFHKQRS
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $META 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.44x
•5-Year Mean: 22.50x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.18%
•5-Year Mean: 3.67%
As you can see, $META appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~4% LESS in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $META is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $70.90B
•Long-Term Debt: $28.82B
$META has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 138x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 26.0%
•2020: 23.5%
•2021: 33.7%
•2022: 22.0%
•2023: 26.3%
•LTM: 30.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 20.0%
•2020: 25.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 18.5%
•2023: 28.0%
•LTM: 36.1%
$META has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $55.84B
•2023: $134.90B
•CAGR: 19.29%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $15.36B
•2023: $43.85B
•CAGR: 23.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $7.57
•2023: $14.87
•CAGR: 14.45%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 2.92B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.2%, $META increased its EPS by ~11.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 41.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% LESS in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $META has to grow earnings at an 11.72% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (11.72%) required growth rate:
2024E: $22.58 (51.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $25.21 (11.7% YoY)
2026E: $28.67 (13.7% YoY)
$META has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $META ends 2026 with $28.67 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $745.52💵 … ~13.4% CAGR
24x P/E: $688.08💵 … ~9.3% CAGR
22x P/E: $630.74💵 … ~5.0% CAGR
As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >24x earnings, a multiple above its 5-year average (22.50x), however 24x is a multiple that’s justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate, balance sheet, visionary CEO & investments in AI & LLMs
As I’ve mentioned before: “… the increased investment in future growth and necessary Al development, which has the potential to lead to better growth prospects, should be viewed with a bullish tone rather than a bearish one” — (which can lead to a sustainable re-rating over the next few years)
Mark Zuckerberg continues to execute exceptionally well, as he has always done
Today at $572💵 $META appears to be fairly valued, so those buying today won’t have a margin of safety and will be relying heavily on estimates being met
I’d consider $META a good buy ~$515💵, offering ~10.2% CAGR assuming 22x 2026 est
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Aoris on Diploma $DPLM LN
Thesis: Diploma’s focus on high-value technical solutions and efficient acquisitions positions it for consistent, double-digit growth in diverse global markets.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/IryUUiOWra
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harding Loevner on ASML $ASML NA
Thesis: While ASML’s technology remains dominant, surging valuations and signs of a semiconductor slowdown prompted us to exit and seek better growth opportunities.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/US4gwFGbxp
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Librarian Capital
No, deficit is not simply "spending tomorrow's money"
You can't think of the economy like you do a household
Deficit is also a result of unsustainable distribution
Average person is not being paid enough
Government not collecting enough taxes
Deficit spending is filling the gap https://t.co/imA9TqHSoF
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Quiver Quantitative
We just rolled out "Trump Donors" and "Kamala Donors" portfolios on Autopilot.
Here's how some of the companies did today:
TRUMP
$DJT: -1%
$TSLA: +3%
$PLTR: +23%
$HD: +1%
$SCHW: +1%
KAMALA
$NFLX: +1%
$GOOG: +0%
$MSFT: +1%
$AAPL: +1%
$PLTR: +23% https://t.co/Wz5ZmVAR4d
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @PelosiTracker_: This is how you play both sides
Last week Quiver launched two new portfolios tracking which companies' employees donated the most to Trump or Kamala campaigns
Palantir $PLTR was in both
Their CEO donated ~$1.1M
Their senior advisors donated ~$2.3M
The stock is up 22% today https://t.co/lfgeXpoCDD
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Librarian Capital
Elon Musk tweeted he voted and included a photo
Why? Could it be because people remember how, after he claimed to have voted Republican in 2022, state records showed he did not in fact vote?
Remember FSD, "funding secured", and the $1m "lottery" which was in fact fixed
Vote! https://t.co/y9bPrI6itW
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Librarian Capital
RT @joshscampbell: Haven’t registered to vote yet? Many states allow in-person registration AT the polls with proper documentation. It’s not too late.
Find your state’s rules here: https://t.co/2DrQWhFBg9 https://t.co/mOL8UTUTD6
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AkhenOsiris
RT @MikeZaccardi: We need to do this election thing more often.
A "buy everything" day! $SPY $IWM $VEU $AGG $USO $GLD $IBIT
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Trump Media stock, $DJT, has fallen 15% in the last 15 minutes.
Currently halted.
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Librarian Capital
RT @RpsAgainstTrump: Trump confirms he would give anti-vaxxer RFK Jr total control of public health agencies: “He's gonna do pretty much what he wants as far as I'm concerned. He wants health for women.”
This should scare the hell out of you. Vote! https://t.co/rUoc4rgjqK
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