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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Stock Analysis Compilation
Middle Coast Investing on DMC Global $BOOM US
Thesis: DMC is in a special situation with a potential buyout offer, and its diversified industrial units make it a compelling opportunity, especially if management focuses on Arcadia division
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Ndt8hsUVap
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Quiver Quantitative
We published this report, when a Carvana bankruptcy looked imminent.
$CVNA has now risen 5,500% since then.
That's not a typo:
5,500% https://t.co/6zA6lgot1Z
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Investing visuals
Mastercard $MA: an overview of a great compounder👌 https://t.co/dJdMdeFm5Y
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Choice Equities CM on PAR Technology $PAR US
Thesis: PAR Technology’s expansion into new channels and strong cross-selling opportunities, combined with controlled expenses, sets it up for sustained 20% organic growth and rising EBITDA margins
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/PEO52pdtcv
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks Trading PEG <2.50x 📈
💳 visa $v (2.49x)
📲 applied materials $amat (2.33x)
✈️ booking holdings $bkng (2.29x)
🖨️ asml holding $asml (2.07x)
💿 nvidia corp $nvda (1.95x)
💵 paypal $pypl (1.73x)
🖱️ alphabet $goog $googl (1.37x)
📸 meta platforms $meta (1.33x)
📀 taiwan semiconductor $tsm (1.00x)
📦 amazon $amzn (0.82x using p/ocf)
#stocks #investing
_______
*data from finviz
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Startup Archive
Keith Rabois on what Peter Thiel taught him about promoting people
“So I actually learned from Peter Thiel back at PayPal that you only really want to promote someone when there’s a significant delta between that person’s performance and the next best person. The bigger the delta, the easier it is to promote somebody. Otherwise you’re better off leaving things flat until the gap is just unmistakable.”
The key benefit is a flatter organization with less bureaucracy. But Keith also argues that layering talented direct reports under an executive is a bad for morale:
“You’re going to demoralize them, and you’re never going to see how much upside they really have. As long as you think someone has unbounded upside, I’d be very leery of suppressing their potential.”
Video source: @imchrisvasquez (2024)
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: JD Vance now has up to half a million dollars in Bitcoin, #BTC
You can track his portfolio on Quiver https://t.co/5AQy0VJuTS
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 4 months ago I stated:
“Today at $254💵 $V appears to be ONE OF THE BEST RISK-REWARD opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $V shares rallied +22% ✅ — Also, that was essentially the lowest price that $V traded for moving forward 🎯
As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽
“As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.73x
•10-Year Mean: 28.11x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.20%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%
As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B
$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%
$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.03B
By reducing its shares outstanding 22.5%, $V increased its EPS by 29% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~3% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at an 11.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.87%) required growth rate:
2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.09 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $12.57 (13.3% YoY)
$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $351.96💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
27x P/E: $339.39💵 … ~14.5% CAGR
26x P/E: $326.82💵 … ~12.6% CAGR
25x P/E: $314.25💵 … ~10.8% CAGR
As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price
Today at $254💵 $V appears to be one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧�[...]
Stock Analysis Compilation
Choice Equities CM on Caesars Entertainment $CZR US
Thesis: Caesars’s strong brand, combined with growth in iGaming and sports betting, positions the company for sustained financial improvement, supported by a solid yield and recent refinancings
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/yrZN5eS68E
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Middle Coast Investing on Apogee $APOG US
Thesis: Apogee’s focus on margin improvement and strategic acquisitions in a fractured market, combined with its strong management, offers solid long-term growth potential
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/dipdbpxicz
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” — Warren Buffett 🗣️
$BF.B (generally a stable stock) is -50% from its highs
What happened?
Multiple compression.
It traded for >45x earnings, meanwhile EPS CAGR was 0.80% from 2020 - 2025 (using 2025E)
#stocks #investing https://t.co/DBxxUZhHxl
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Startup Archive
Former Y Combinator CEO Michael Seibel: “Don’t be fake Steve Jobs”
“A lot of people think Steve jobs is this person to emulate but they have a false picture in their heads of what Steve Jobs was. They think that he dreamed perfect ideas out of his head and into the world.”
People look at the iPhone as an example of this. But as Michael points out, they look at their iPhone today:
“Your iPhone today is f’ing magical. The first iPhone sucked in almost every way.”
The first iPhone had no 3G—even though 3G was a standard feature at the time. There was only one carrier so if you didn’t have AT&T, you had to switch carriers. The battery life was horrible and the screen cracked all the time. And there was no app store!
Everyone forgets this iPhone. And Michael agues that if you’re the person at the company who is saying “the product has to be this way” irrespective of what customers and everyone else are saying, you’re being “Fake Steve Jobs.”
“Real Steve Jobs released a sh*tty MVP that was revolutionary but still fairly sh*tty, and every year iterated it until you have the thing in your pocket right now which is pretty damn good. Real Steve Jobs iterates and talks to customers. Fake Steve Jobs just dreams and creates art. Don’t be Fake Steve Jobs.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2018)
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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals: $BRK $NVO $CVX $QCOM $ARM $ANET $SONY $MELI $PLTR $ABNB $RACE $MAR $FTNT $TTD $CPNG $SQ $YUM $HSY $NET $HUBS $TTWO $QSR $PINS $EXPE $WBD $DKNG $TOST $AFRM $DUOL $PCOR $Z $MTCH $LYFT $HIMS $DOCN
Check out the latest earnings👇
https://t.co/pixu9hIdtC https://t.co/fgkPcBZlYO
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Startup Archive
RT @justin_alb88: Self-policing the "standard" is the force multiplier any "A" player brings to an org.
Define the vision & culture you want and then seed the org w/ "A" players that align and it becomes self-sustaining.
Steve Jobs on the most important job of a CEO
“The greatest people are self-managing. They don’t need to be managed. Once they know what to do, they’ll go figure out how to do it… What they need is a common vision, and that’s what leadership is. Leadership is having a vision, being able to articulate that so the people around you can understand it, and getting consensus on a common vision.”
Steve continues:
“We wanted people who were insanely great at what they did… and the neatest thing that happens when you get a core group ten great people is that it becomes self-policing as to who they let into that group. So I consider the most important job of someone like myself is recruiting.”
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Startup Archive
Steve Jobs on the most important job of a CEO
“The greatest people are self-managing. They don’t need to be managed. Once they know what to do, they’ll go figure out how to do it… What they need is a common vision, and that’s what leadership is. Leadership is having a vision, being able to articulate that so the people around you can understand it, and getting consensus on a common vision.”
Steve continues:
“We wanted people who were insanely great at what they did… and the neatest thing that happens when you get a core group ten great people is that it becomes self-policing as to who they let into that group. So I consider the most important job of someone like myself is recruiting.”
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Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi has made $7.5M in the stock market since the election, per our estimates.
We estimate that she is now worth $262M. https://t.co/g91vXdf3Td
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App Economy Insights
$SHOP Shopify Q3 FY24
📦 GMV +24% to $69.7B ($1.9B beat).
💳 GPV 62% of GMV (+4pp Y/Y).
📊 MRR +28% to $175M.
• Revenue +26% Y/Y to $2.2B ($50M beat).
• Operating margin 13% (+6pp Y/Y).
• Q4 FY24 growth: mid-to-high-20s. https://t.co/kNX1X1I7Uk
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $CLDX just reported the purchase of ~$300K of the company's stock.
This is the first insider purchase we have ever seen him make.
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 JUST IN: New Insider Purchase
A director of $SMLR has reported the purchase of ~$1.9M of the company's stock.
The stock rose over 35% between when the trade was made (on 11/7) and when it was reported.
This is only the first insider purchase at the company in over a year.
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App Economy Insights
Why is $PLTR up 250% in 2024?
🤖 AIP bootcamps
🇺🇸 US business surge
📊 Financials visualized
🕵️ Palantir's differentiation
📈 Closer look at the valuation
Get the full breakdown 👇
https://t.co/fMhy8x52fc
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Trump has chosen Rep. Mike Waltz to be his national security advisor.
We estimate that Waltz has a net worth of approximately $10M.
He bought up to $100K of Bitcoin in 2021.
Full portfolio is up on Quiver. https://t.co/aktIZEch52
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�𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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Stock Analysis Compilation
White Brook Capital on Krispy Kreme $DNUT US
Thesis: Krispy Kreme’s expansion into major retailers and fast-food chains, combined with its renewed business model, sets it up for capital-efficient and profitable growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/9F1mVO2DPu
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Investing visuals
Tesla $TSLA is officially back in the $1 trillion club and now up 11x over the past 5 years👌 https://t.co/m6BEWW0OHv
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Senator Markwayne Mullin has violated the STOCK Act.
He JUST disclosed a July purchase of stock in a company called Stride, $LRN.
It's a for-profit education company.
Mullin sits on the Senate Committee on Education.
The stock has risen 33% since his trade. https://t.co/GEbGgOoQVM
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App Economy Insights
What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $MNDY, $GRAB, $LYV.
• Tuesday: $SHOP, $SPOT, $HD, $CART, $SE, $ONON.
• Wednesday: $CSCO, $NU, $DLO, $CYBR.
• Thursday: $DIS, $JD, $NTES, $AMAT.
• Friday: $BABA. https://t.co/mHWRU1PAga
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Guinness on Netflix $NFLX
Thesis: Netflix’s strategic focus on expanding global content and improving profitability, supported by strong subscriber growth, positions it for continued double-digit top-line growth and significant margin improvements
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/aK3KUxWiA7
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Donville Kent on Zedcor $ZDC CN
Thesis: Zedcor’s highly profitable, rapidly expanding security tower business, with 40% IRR and a large untapped market, positions it as a potential long-term compounder with massive growth potential
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/UGNxT5vgSv
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Startup Archive
RT @mikemcg0: TLDR: the most important job of the CEO is recruiting
Steve Jobs on the most important job of a CEO
“The greatest people are self-managing. They don’t need to be managed. Once they know what to do, they’ll go figure out how to do it… What they need is a common vision, and that’s what leadership is. Leadership is having a vision, being able to articulate that so the people around you can understand it, and getting consensus on a common vision.”
Steve continues:
“We wanted people who were insanely great at what they did… and the neatest thing that happens when you get a core group ten great people is that it becomes self-policing as to who they let into that group. So I consider the most important job of someone like myself is recruiting.”
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iinvested
3Q'24 Long Cast Advisers on $CCRD
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/ccjFhSPQ2v https://t.co/CprucW178r
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