4
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
AkhenOsiris
Global in nature, will probably be spun as redundancy due to acquisitions etc, let's wait for more
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AkhenOsiris
GENI following SRAD from last week with similar fwd looking guidance on the betting space
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Donville Kent on Enterprise Group $E CN
Thesis: Enterprise Group’s Evolution Power Projects division, with 50% IRRs and exclusive technology, positions the company for significant growth and profitability in the energy and mining sectors.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/3GoX4erBvW
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Middle Coast Investing on DMC Global $BOOM US
Thesis: DMC is in a special situation with a potential buyout offer, and its diversified industrial units make it a compelling opportunity, especially if management focuses on Arcadia division
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Ndt8hsUVap
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Quiver Quantitative
We published this report, when a Carvana bankruptcy looked imminent.
$CVNA has now risen 5,500% since then.
That's not a typo:
5,500% https://t.co/6zA6lgot1Z
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Investing visuals
Mastercard $MA: an overview of a great compounder👌 https://t.co/dJdMdeFm5Y
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Choice Equities CM on PAR Technology $PAR US
Thesis: PAR Technology’s expansion into new channels and strong cross-selling opportunities, combined with controlled expenses, sets it up for sustained 20% organic growth and rising EBITDA margins
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/PEO52pdtcv
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks Trading PEG <2.50x 📈
💳 visa $v (2.49x)
📲 applied materials $amat (2.33x)
✈️ booking holdings $bkng (2.29x)
🖨️ asml holding $asml (2.07x)
💿 nvidia corp $nvda (1.95x)
💵 paypal $pypl (1.73x)
🖱️ alphabet $goog $googl (1.37x)
📸 meta platforms $meta (1.33x)
📀 taiwan semiconductor $tsm (1.00x)
📦 amazon $amzn (0.82x using p/ocf)
#stocks #investing
_______
*data from finviz
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Startup Archive
Keith Rabois on what Peter Thiel taught him about promoting people
“So I actually learned from Peter Thiel back at PayPal that you only really want to promote someone when there’s a significant delta between that person’s performance and the next best person. The bigger the delta, the easier it is to promote somebody. Otherwise you’re better off leaving things flat until the gap is just unmistakable.”
The key benefit is a flatter organization with less bureaucracy. But Keith also argues that layering talented direct reports under an executive is a bad for morale:
“You’re going to demoralize them, and you’re never going to see how much upside they really have. As long as you think someone has unbounded upside, I’d be very leery of suppressing their potential.”
Video source: @imchrisvasquez (2024)
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: JD Vance now has up to half a million dollars in Bitcoin, #BTC
You can track his portfolio on Quiver https://t.co/5AQy0VJuTS
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 4 months ago I stated:
“Today at $254💵 $V appears to be ONE OF THE BEST RISK-REWARD opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $V shares rallied +22% ✅ — Also, that was essentially the lowest price that $V traded for moving forward 🎯
As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽
“As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.73x
•10-Year Mean: 28.11x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.20%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%
As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B
$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%
$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.03B
By reducing its shares outstanding 22.5%, $V increased its EPS by 29% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~3% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at an 11.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.87%) required growth rate:
2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.09 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $12.57 (13.3% YoY)
$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $351.96💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
27x P/E: $339.39💵 … ~14.5% CAGR
26x P/E: $326.82💵 … ~12.6% CAGR
25x P/E: $314.25💵 … ~10.8% CAGR
As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price
Today at $254💵 $V appears to be one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧�[...]
Stock Analysis Compilation
Choice Equities CM on Caesars Entertainment $CZR US
Thesis: Caesars’s strong brand, combined with growth in iGaming and sports betting, positions the company for sustained financial improvement, supported by a solid yield and recent refinancings
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/yrZN5eS68E
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Middle Coast Investing on Apogee $APOG US
Thesis: Apogee’s focus on margin improvement and strategic acquisitions in a fractured market, combined with its strong management, offers solid long-term growth potential
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/dipdbpxicz
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” — Warren Buffett 🗣️
$BF.B (generally a stable stock) is -50% from its highs
What happened?
Multiple compression.
It traded for >45x earnings, meanwhile EPS CAGR was 0.80% from 2020 - 2025 (using 2025E)
#stocks #investing https://t.co/DBxxUZhHxl
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Startup Archive
Former Y Combinator CEO Michael Seibel: “Don’t be fake Steve Jobs”
“A lot of people think Steve jobs is this person to emulate but they have a false picture in their heads of what Steve Jobs was. They think that he dreamed perfect ideas out of his head and into the world.”
People look at the iPhone as an example of this. But as Michael points out, they look at their iPhone today:
“Your iPhone today is f’ing magical. The first iPhone sucked in almost every way.”
The first iPhone had no 3G—even though 3G was a standard feature at the time. There was only one carrier so if you didn’t have AT&T, you had to switch carriers. The battery life was horrible and the screen cracked all the time. And there was no app store!
Everyone forgets this iPhone. And Michael agues that if you’re the person at the company who is saying “the product has to be this way” irrespective of what customers and everyone else are saying, you’re being “Fake Steve Jobs.”
“Real Steve Jobs released a sh*tty MVP that was revolutionary but still fairly sh*tty, and every year iterated it until you have the thing in your pocket right now which is pretty damn good. Real Steve Jobs iterates and talks to customers. Fake Steve Jobs just dreams and creates art. Don’t be Fake Steve Jobs.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2018)
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AkhenOsiris
Hearing some layoffs happening at $AMD, senior level...not sure of the extent and which areas
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Pitching the stock that is the #1 biggest position in my portfolio tomorrow morning at the Starting 5 Conference. @GeoInvesting
You can find the link through this Substack: https://t.co/IPFVxGiVdj https://t.co/Vk5zr689l2
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Startup Archive
Sam Altman and John Collison explain that every startup goes through "the dark times"
Even though Open AI was recently valued at $157 billion, the journey to this point wasn’t as smooth as you might think.
As Sam Altman puts it:
“No one is as honest about how bad the early days are as they should be because it’s so embarrassing in retrospect.”
He talks through just how unpromising everything looked in the early days:
“We were this extremely ragtag group of people. We were mocked by everyone serious in the field. And we didn’t have working technical progress. We had some little things that kind of worked, but it was deeply unclear how we were going to make AGI, and we were unbelievably outgunned by Deep Mind at the time. A lot of people were like ‘why are you doing this? Deep Mind is untouchable.’… so yeah, it was pretty hard but we just kept putting one foot in front of the other. We were constantly not able to find enough money or compute or people. But you just keep going and eventually something works.”
Stripe cofounder John Collison reiterates this:
“Every company that is going to get to some scale definitely goes through a period of the dark times. If I think back to Stripe’s dark times, there was this point just after launch where the endorphins had worn off, and we had a bunch of early people leave all at once. It was very draining. You know, you lose some of your own confidence.”
What kept the Stripe founders going—besides having an idea that they were really excited about—was momentum from serving customers. When you have customers using your product, you kind of have no choice but to continue serving them.
Sam echoes this point:
“Once you have customers that you have to serve, they really pull it out of you.”
Open AI didn’t have customers and was more focused on foundational research, but to keep their sanity, they tried to set up external touch points that faked the equivalent of having customer feedback.
Video source: @stripe (2023)
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Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi has made $7.5M in the stock market since the election, per our estimates.
We estimate that she is now worth $262M. https://t.co/g91vXdf3Td
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App Economy Insights
$SHOP Shopify Q3 FY24
📦 GMV +24% to $69.7B ($1.9B beat).
💳 GPV 62% of GMV (+4pp Y/Y).
📊 MRR +28% to $175M.
• Revenue +26% Y/Y to $2.2B ($50M beat).
• Operating margin 13% (+6pp Y/Y).
• Q4 FY24 growth: mid-to-high-20s. https://t.co/kNX1X1I7Uk
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $CLDX just reported the purchase of ~$300K of the company's stock.
This is the first insider purchase we have ever seen him make.
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 JUST IN: New Insider Purchase
A director of $SMLR has reported the purchase of ~$1.9M of the company's stock.
The stock rose over 35% between when the trade was made (on 11/7) and when it was reported.
This is only the first insider purchase at the company in over a year.
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App Economy Insights
Why is $PLTR up 250% in 2024?
🤖 AIP bootcamps
🇺🇸 US business surge
📊 Financials visualized
🕵️ Palantir's differentiation
📈 Closer look at the valuation
Get the full breakdown 👇
https://t.co/fMhy8x52fc
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Trump has chosen Rep. Mike Waltz to be his national security advisor.
We estimate that Waltz has a net worth of approximately $10M.
He bought up to $100K of Bitcoin in 2021.
Full portfolio is up on Quiver. https://t.co/aktIZEch52
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�𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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Stock Analysis Compilation
White Brook Capital on Krispy Kreme $DNUT US
Thesis: Krispy Kreme’s expansion into major retailers and fast-food chains, combined with its renewed business model, sets it up for capital-efficient and profitable growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/9F1mVO2DPu
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Investing visuals
Tesla $TSLA is officially back in the $1 trillion club and now up 11x over the past 5 years👌 https://t.co/m6BEWW0OHv
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Senator Markwayne Mullin has violated the STOCK Act.
He JUST disclosed a July purchase of stock in a company called Stride, $LRN.
It's a for-profit education company.
Mullin sits on the Senate Committee on Education.
The stock has risen 33% since his trade. https://t.co/GEbGgOoQVM
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App Economy Insights
What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $MNDY, $GRAB, $LYV.
• Tuesday: $SHOP, $SPOT, $HD, $CART, $SE, $ONON.
• Wednesday: $CSCO, $NU, $DLO, $CYBR.
• Thursday: $DIS, $JD, $NTES, $AMAT.
• Friday: $BABA. https://t.co/mHWRU1PAga
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Guinness on Netflix $NFLX
Thesis: Netflix’s strategic focus on expanding global content and improving profitability, supported by strong subscriber growth, positions it for continued double-digit top-line growth and significant margin improvements
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/aK3KUxWiA7
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