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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 JUST IN: New Insider Purchase
The Chairman of the Board at $SEDG just reported the purchase of ~$2.1M of the company's stock.
This comes after the stock has fallen ~87% YTD. https://t.co/uAbN3Hx3AF
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Cleabridge on Tenet Healthcare $THC US
Thesis: Tenet Healthcare’s strategic focus on offsite surgical centers and divestiture of non-core assets positions it for profitable growth, driven by strong management and shifting industry dynamics.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/hfQTGVGDyV
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $EXAS just reported the purchase of ~$1M of the company's stock.
This is the first insider purchase we have EVER seen at Exact Sciences. https://t.co/cuT7meWNvY
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Startup Archive
The advice from Paul Graham that helped Airbnb find product/market fit
“Paul Graham gave us a series of advice that probably changed our business for ever… He basically said: ‘It’s better to have 100 customers that love you than a million customers that just sort of like you.’”
Airbnb founder Brian Chesky continues:
“If you have 100 people who absolutely love your product, they’ll tell 100 people, and they’ll tell 100 people, and this thing will grow virally. In fact, almost all movements in history have grown this way as well—there are deeply passionate followers and they grow it, and they’re customer advocates.”
He contrasts this to the general wisdom in Silicon Valley of: “I need to build this app. It needs have this viral coefficient. I need to get millions of people to use it. And they need to like it enough to share it.”
Brian argues that this is the wrong way to think about building a great product. And once they stopped worrying about millions of people, it was totally freeing.
At this moment, the Airbnb founding team decided to get 100 people to love them, they would do things that don’t scale:
“Getting 100 people to love you means you need to meet them and understand their problem. We would fly during Y Combinator from Mountain View to New York and we would go door to door and meet with everyone of our hosts and literally live with them.”
This was a huge inflection point for the company.
“And once you have 100 people, you just focus on figuring out how to scale that. It’s a totally different intellectual problem to scale something 100 people love than to figure out [how to get 1 million people who like you to love you]. And that was the turning point for us.”
Video source: @GreylockVC (2015)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Munro on Vertiv $VRT US
Thesis: Vertiv is set to double its earnings as AI-driven demand for advanced data centers surges, making it a critical partner for tech giants and hyperscalers worldwide.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/aFlYvY147V
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Hidden Value Gems
Should be an exciting reading on some of Buffett’s early investments. We are all keen to learn the method of generating 50% returns annually!
Thank you for writing this book, @brettgardner_10 🙌
cc @Investbythebook https://t.co/p2yFdlWHY0
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #18 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
Includes links to the Q3 letters from Alta Fox / Aoris / Aristotle / Choice Equities CM / Clearbridge / Conestoga / Donville Kent / Greenlight / Greystone CM / Guinness GI / Harding Loevner / Massif Capital / Middle Coast Investing / Munro / Oakmark / Third Point / Tidefall Capital / Wedgewood Partners / White Brook Capital
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative María Salazar has bought more stock in Antero Resources, $AR.
Antero Resources is an oil and natural gas company.
Salazar started buying stock in the company back in August.
We have not seen any other politicians trade the stock in over two years. https://t.co/SrbA9MycKx
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$SAVE files for bankruptcy, to be expected 📉
#stocks #investing
WHY YOU SHOULD AVOID INVESTING IN AIRLINES ⚠️
First, let’s take a look at the last 5-year returns of 4 major airlines:
1) $AAL -67% (American Airlines)
2) $UAL -32% (United Airlines)
3) $JBLU -63% (JetBlue)
4) $DAL -34% (Delta)
Why do airlines post such poor results for investors? It’s simple. On average, here are the economics of the sector:
COST OF CAPITAL: ~8%
RETURN ON CAPITAL (ROIC): ~4%
Would you want to own a business that pays $8 just to receive $4 in return?
Of course not. Airlines BLEED MONEY EVERY DAY.
As Warren Buffett asserted in his 2007 Shareholder Letter $BRK.B $BRK.A:
“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think AIRLINES ... The airline industry's demand for capital ever since that first flight has been insatiable.
Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it. And I, to my shame, participated in this foolishness when I had Berkshire buy U.S. Air preferred stock in 1989.”
#stocks #investing
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Choice Equities CM on Hain Celestial Group $HAIN US
Thesis: Hain Celestial’s new management is driving a turnaround with a focus on organic growth and profitability in the natural products sector, positioning the company for strong future gains
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/TwI6bG3Bnb
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Investing visuals
$AXON is quietly turning into a software powerhouse, growing as fast as high-flyers like Crowdstrike $CRWD and Palantir $PLTR.
This company deserves more attention. https://t.co/I4hXP5hxv1
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AkhenOsiris
RT @heartbreakout: Does the gap between $nvda and $amd shrink as we move from training to more inference? I’ve heard differing opinions. Anyone have a view?
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AkhenOsiris
Global in nature, will probably be spun as redundancy due to acquisitions etc, let's wait for more
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AkhenOsiris
GENI following SRAD from last week with similar fwd looking guidance on the betting space
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Donville Kent on Enterprise Group $E CN
Thesis: Enterprise Group’s Evolution Power Projects division, with 50% IRRs and exclusive technology, positions the company for significant growth and profitability in the energy and mining sectors.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/3GoX4erBvW
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App Economy Insights
$TCEHY Tencent Q3 FY24:
Revenue +8% Y/Y to RMB167B ($23B).
🎮 Gaming +13%
💬 Social Networks +4%
📢 Marketing Services +17%
💳 Business +2%
Weixin/WeChat: 1.38M MAU (+3% Y/Y). https://t.co/WOXPX2vt6H
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
When to add Line Item to ROIC Calculator (Tutorial):
Invested Capital for $WMT https://t.co/0HhdAs1Che
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: John Thune has been elected as Senate Majority Leader.
Thune has a net worth of $700K, per our estimates.
We have seen him trade stock just once while in office - a 2022 sale of $IRT. https://t.co/Aqx63YFqif
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Investing visuals
Spotify $SPOT 🎵 vs. Netflix $NFLX 🍿
Whose your favorite?
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Investing visuals
Palantir $PLTR seems like an unstoppable rocket ship, hitting new all-time-highs📈
The market’s now betting on 30% FCF growth for the next 10 years. Let’s see how it all plays out 🤷♂️ https://t.co/y4aR3IJhN7
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Investing visuals
Spotify $SPOT delivery a strong Q3 and really turned on the cash printer lately. Here's everything you need to know👇 https://t.co/RPVPDm7ee3
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $SMLR has risen over 6% this morning, and is now up 8% since an insider purchase was reported yesterday https://t.co/JbaCFvvUdr
🚨 JUST IN: New Insider Purchase
A director of $SMLR has reported the purchase of ~$1.9M of the company's stock.
The stock rose over 35% between when the trade was made (on 11/7) and when it was reported.
This is only the first insider purchase at the company in over a year.
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Quiver Quantitative
When you don't even make a million dollars in the market in a day: https://t.co/Vg7OaTiZt1
Asked Pelosi how she’s doing.
“Terrible,” she said
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: 3 large new insider purchases
Rockwell Automation, $ROK - $2m purchase by CFO
Heidrick & Struggles, $HSII - $230k purchase by CEO
Highpeak Energy, $HPK - $240k purchase by CEO
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Quiver Quantitative
Congress net worth leaderboard at market close.
Pelosi is one of the few winners in the stock market today. https://t.co/z94oIvGCy3
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Stock Analysis Compilation
White Brook Capital on Wayfair $W US
Thesis: Wayfair is well-positioned to capitalize on a housing recovery and is expected to thrive even in the face of potential tariffs, with strong free cash flow generation ahead
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/atuIC0sSXh
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AkhenOsiris
RT @SaaSletter: 🤔 Quick take: With @theinformation "OpenAI Shifts Strategy as Rate of ‘GPT’ AI Improvements Slows" (h/t @steph_palazzolo) receiving a *lot* of attention this weekend ->
The early returns on AI ROI, *suggest* that *current* models are *sufficient* to justify the levels of AI enthusiasm in a *B2B* context.
See studies from @ICONIQGrowth, Morgan Stanley, ETR, Bain - see attachment.
Beyond ROI, I would note that some of the factors noted in The Information article (like a data wall) do not necessarily map to B2B use cases (i.e. corporations have stores of data to use that are not available to rate of progress for ChatGPT style models). Further, the quality improvements in open source models is a *very* positive development for long-term viability of AI in B2B settings.
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AkhenOsiris
Hearing some layoffs happening at $AMD, senior level...not sure of the extent and which areas
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Pitching the stock that is the #1 biggest position in my portfolio tomorrow morning at the Starting 5 Conference. @GeoInvesting
You can find the link through this Substack: https://t.co/IPFVxGiVdj https://t.co/Vk5zr689l2
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Startup Archive
Sam Altman and John Collison explain that every startup goes through "the dark times"
Even though Open AI was recently valued at $157 billion, the journey to this point wasn’t as smooth as you might think.
As Sam Altman puts it:
“No one is as honest about how bad the early days are as they should be because it’s so embarrassing in retrospect.”
He talks through just how unpromising everything looked in the early days:
“We were this extremely ragtag group of people. We were mocked by everyone serious in the field. And we didn’t have working technical progress. We had some little things that kind of worked, but it was deeply unclear how we were going to make AGI, and we were unbelievably outgunned by Deep Mind at the time. A lot of people were like ‘why are you doing this? Deep Mind is untouchable.’… so yeah, it was pretty hard but we just kept putting one foot in front of the other. We were constantly not able to find enough money or compute or people. But you just keep going and eventually something works.”
Stripe cofounder John Collison reiterates this:
“Every company that is going to get to some scale definitely goes through a period of the dark times. If I think back to Stripe’s dark times, there was this point just after launch where the endorphins had worn off, and we had a bunch of early people leave all at once. It was very draining. You know, you lose some of your own confidence.”
What kept the Stripe founders going—besides having an idea that they were really excited about—was momentum from serving customers. When you have customers using your product, you kind of have no choice but to continue serving them.
Sam echoes this point:
“Once you have customers that you have to serve, they really pull it out of you.”
Open AI didn’t have customers and was more focused on foundational research, but to keep their sanity, they tried to set up external touch points that faked the equivalent of having customer feedback.
Video source: @stripe (2023)
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