4
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Investing visuals
Broadcom $AVGO: up 22% today and officially joined the $1 trillion club.
Over the past decade, revenue soared 11x, from $4.3B to $48.5B. A truly remarkable achievement!
Congrats to all shareholders! 🙌 https://t.co/KVuqZzTkRX
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
Thank you for voting, looks like #LVMH is by far the favourite !
If you had to buy one luxury goods stock for the next 3 years, what would it be ?
Unfortunately X allows to offer only 4 options
- LVMH
- Kering
- WOSG
- Hermes
tweet
Startup Archive
Elon Musk on his schedule building both Tesla and SpaceX
In this 2013 interview, Elon is asked what his schedule looks like running both Tesla and SpaceX simultaneously. He responds:
“So the way I generally do it is I’ll be working at SpaceX on Monday. And then Monday night fly to the Bay Area, spend Tuesday and Wednesday at Tesla. And then fly back on Wednesday night, spend Thursday and Friday at SpaceX. In the last several months, I’d fly back here on Saturday and either spend Saturday and Sunday at Tesla or spend Saturday at Tesla and Sunday at SpaceX.”
Video source: @ComputerHistory (2013)
tweet
Capital Employed
35 stock pitches we’ve enjoyed reading in the past two weeks… 👇
https://t.co/QOli1c5QWM https://t.co/yNsEQOUqnJ
tweet
App Economy Insights
$AVGO Broadcom Q4 FY24 (October quarter).
VMWare acquisition completed in November 2023 (impacting infrastructure software segment).
• Revenue +51% Y/Y to $14.1B (in-line).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.42 ($0.03 beat).
• Dividend raised by 11% to $0.59.
Q1 FY25 guidance:
• Revenue ~$14.6B (in-line).
• Adjusted EBITDA margin ~66%.
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
FPA on Concentrix $CNXC US
Thesis: Concentrix’s low valuation and cash generation, coupled with strong client retention, make it a cautious hold in the face of AI competition
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sBChwipDzR
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Some notable facts regarding $MELI 💸
Revenue CAGR (2019-2023): 58%
Revenue CAGR (2023-2027E): 26%
EPS CAGR (2023-2027E): 34%
LTM ROIC: 20.1%
LTM ROE: 42.6%
Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.67B
LT Debt: $3.04B
FFO Int Coverage Ratio: 20x
#stocks #investing https://t.co/HopoYzUpnL
tweet
Investing visuals
Alphabet $GOOGL generated $40B in cloud revenue over the past 12 months, yet it’s just 10% of total revenue.
Here’s a full breakdown 👇 https://t.co/6ZEtL0xCfL
tweet
Startup Archive
Balaji Srinivasan: “If you have runway, you’re not dead”
Balaji is asked for his thoughts on pivots and lists several examples of massive companies that pivoted from their initial idea:
• YouTube started as a dating site
• PayPal was originally built for beaming money between PalmPilots
• Slack started as a gaming company called Tiny Speck
• Opsware (sold for $1.6B) started as LoudCloud
He tells the audience:
“If you have the runway, you’re not dead. You iterate until you survive and thrive. And then you grow. And then you become big.”
Video source: @StartupGrind (2017)
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Bronte Capital on Capital One $COF US
Thesis: Capital One’s merger synergies with Discover promise years of earnings growth by bypassing Visa’s monopoly, but short-term challenges in Discover’s network remain
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/x7zUbIGvku
tweet
Investing visuals
Is $TSLA worth the premium?
With its recent all-time high, $TSLA trades at 77x price/gross profit, far above its 4-year average of 43x.
The impact of Robotaxis, Optimus and FSD on revenue remains to be seen. Do you believe $TSLA will deliver? https://t.co/KMP9ajaajD
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 18.01x
•5-Year Mean: 17.84x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.50%
•5-Year Mean: 5.85%
As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~1% LESS in earnings per share & ~23% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMAT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $9.47B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.46B
$AMAT has a great balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 35x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 24.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 43.2%
•2023: 34.2%
•LTM: 31.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.9%
•2020: 38.5%
•2021: 51.6%
•2022: 53.4%
•2023: 48.0%
•LTM: 40.6%
$AMAT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $9.07B
•2024: $27.18B
•CAGR: 11.60%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.56B
•2024: $7.49B
•CAGR: 16.98%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.07
•2024: $8.65
•CAGR: 23.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.83B
By reducing its shares outstanding 32%, $AMAT increased its EPS by 47% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% LESS in EPS & ~23% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMAT has to grow earnings at a 9.01% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (9.01%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.50 (9.9% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $10.69 (12.5% YoY)
2027E: $11.74 (9.8% YoY)
$AMAT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $AMAT ends 2027 with $11.74 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $258.28💵 … ~16.2% CAGR
20x P/E: $234.80💵 … ~12.4% CAGR
18x P/E: $211.32💵 … ~8.4% CAGR
16x P/E: $187.84💵 … ~4.1% CAGR
As you can see, $AMAT appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >20x earnings, a multiple well above its 10-year mean & on the higher end of its historical range
Of course demand for semiconductor equipment & materials is expected to see a huge increase over the next several years & this has gotten priced in, to an extent
So $AMAT could justify its current multiple if estimates continue to be fairly aggressive & the company executes (as they have over the last few quarters)
However, those looking to accumulate today leave themselves with no margin of safety — and we know how volatile semiconductors can be during times of uncertainty
Today at $171💵 $AMAT appears to be fully valued
I’d consider $AMAT a great opportunity closer to $150💵 or ~12% below today’s price .. where I can reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming 17x earnings
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
If you had to buy one luxury goods stock for the next 3 years, what would it be ?
Unfortunately X allows to offer only 4 options
- LVMH
- Kering
- WOSG
- Hermes
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Kingfisher $KGF LN
Thesis: Kingfisher’s strong cash flow generation and undervaluation, combined with disciplined capital returns, offer attractive upside post-pandemic normalization
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Wy5PBpub1T
tweet
App Economy Insights
$ADBE Adobe Q4 FY24:
• RPO +16% to $20.0B.
• Creative ARR +10% to $13.9B.
• Document Cloud ARR +23% to $3.5B.
• Revenue +11% to $5.6B ($70M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $4.81 ($0.14 beat).
FY25 revenue ~$23.4B ($23.8B expected). https://t.co/IS6BX4sqoF
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Heartland Advisors on Gates Industrial Corporation $GTES US
Thesis: Trading at a discount, Gates Industrial’s margin improvement and strong market position signal a compelling value opportunity with upside potential
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/LuIHLSKZy8
tweet
Startup Archive
RT @mikemcg0: "It may not be possible to prove that you have to work hard to do great things, but the empirical evidence is on the scale of the evidence for mortality. That's why it's essential to work on something you're deeply interested in. Interest will drive you to work harder than mere diligence ever could."
- Paul Graham, How to Do Great Work
Elon Musk on his schedule building both Tesla and SpaceX
In this 2013 interview, Elon is asked what his schedule looks like running both Tesla and SpaceX simultaneously. He responds:
“So the way I generally do it is I’ll be working at SpaceX on Monday. And then Monday night fly to the Bay Area, spend Tuesday and Wednesday at Tesla. And then fly back on Wednesday night, spend Thursday and Friday at SpaceX. In the last several months, I’d fly back here on Saturday and either spend Saturday and Sunday at Tesla or spend Saturday at Tesla and Sunday at SpaceX.”
Video source: @ComputerHistory (2013)
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Fairlight Capital on Serabi Gold $SRB LN
Thesis: Serabi Gold’s strong cash flow, production growth, and undervaluation make it a high-potential junior gold miner in an accelerating market
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/6vItEzcc4V
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The interim CEO of $PLAY has reported the purchase of ~$960K of the company's stock.
The stock had fallen 32% over the last 5 days, leading the previous CEO to resign on Tuesday.
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
Has anyone come across a study on fiscal deficits and stock market returns. Probably relevant for small economies / EMs, less so for US …or maybe it is just a matter of time ?
It definitely looks interesting- US neg 7.6% (budget deficit of GDP), Russia at just -1.9%, Portugal and Greece even better 👀
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
$TLW.L confirms it is in discussion with $KOS on all-share merger. Makes a lot of sense and would be a great deal given the overlap in assets, but it is a all-share deal which says a lot about the balance sheet and management’s views on fair values of respective shares.
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @PabloReports: Asked Rep. TIM BURCHETT (R-TN) about Trump's mass deportation plans. "If I was you, I'd look at which transit system congressmen from both sides of the aisle buy stock in," he said, adding: "That would give you a good indicator."
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Fairlight Capital on Monument Mining Limited $MMY CN
Thesis: Monument Mining combines low-cost gold production, rising profitability, and strong cash flow generation, trading at an attractive valuation of 3x forward earnings
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Dg5gnQ67rw
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
Big month for Pelosi's portfolio so far.
I’ve been writing code that lets people track politicians’ portfolios on Quiver.
Nancy Pelosi has now made $10,000,000 in the stock market in December, per our estimates.
No other member of Congress has made more than $1M: https://t.co/whmRbJIPsn
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: One month ago, we reported on a new insider purchase by the CEO of $EXAS.
The stock has been climbing slowly but steadily since then, and is now up 28% since his purchase. https://t.co/d2NZwMGAKn
🚨 BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $EXAS just reported the purchase of ~$1M of the company's stock.
This is the first insider purchase we have EVER seen at Exact Sciences. https://t.co/cuT7meWNvY
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
SouthernSun on Api Group $APG US
Thesis: APi Group’s focus on high-margin recurring services, strategic M&A opportunities, and proven management make it a compelling play in fire and life safety markets
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/PxyhkHuHwa
tweet
Startup Archive
Elon Musk on how to get people to believe in your startup
“If you think about a company, a company is a group of people that are organized to create a product or service. So in order to create such a thing, you have to convince others to join you in your effort.”
But, as Elon explains, this is hard in the beginning:
“In the beginning, there will be few people who believe in you or what you’re doing. But then over time — as you make progress — the evidence will build and more and more people will believe in what you’re doing.”
So, Elon argues, the first thing you should do when starting a company is create a good demo or mock-up so that people can really envision what it’s about.
“Try to get to that point as soon as possible, and then iterate to make it as real as possible, as fast as possible.”
A good example of this is the Tesla Roadster. Tesla debuted the concept vehicle in 2006 with a famous photograph of co-founder J. B. Straubel driving California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Tesla was a long way from mass-producing the Roadster at any level of affordability, but the demo made their vision more real and helped Tesla secure additional funding. This funding bought the company more time and resources to deliver its first 500 vehicles between February 2008 and June 2009.
Video source: @ComputerHistory (2013)
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
Has anyone done / seen store economics for $WOSG.L? Especially a breakdown of margins into product margins (markups) and store costs (salaries, rent etc).
And also how much it costs to open the store, refurbish it, pay leases etc.
So ROI on one store (roughly)?
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $UAMY has reported the purchase of ~$300K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 15%.
This is the first insider buy we have ever seen him report. A director at the company also reported a $100K purchase today.
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Mar Vista on Ametek $AME US
Thesis: AMETEK’s consistent acquisition strategy, niche market focus, and discounted valuation make it an attractive long-term growth compounder
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/m0uxE9tWyr
tweet