4
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Quiver Quantitative
The continuing resolution is now 116 pages, a reduction of over 90% from the previous 1,547 pages.
Two more iterations, and this could be a one-pager.
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
Text for the new continuing resolution was just released.
Down to just 115 pages, as opposed to 1,500 yesterday.
Currently working on analyzing it, looking for changes from the old proposal.
Will report back later.
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Parnassus on Atlassian $TEAM US
Thesis: Atlassian’s industry-leading software and cloud migration provide a strong foundation for long-term growth and margin expansion
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/dx06YPFRgD
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
Representative Dan Crenshaw has made just 33 trades while in office.
He hasn't disclosed any trades in over a year.
However, he has made a few of the most well-timed trades we've seen.
Here his five most profitable transactions: https://t.co/H5TteGlwur
tweet
App Economy Insights
$ACN Accenture Q1 FY25 (Nov. quarter):
• Revenue +9% Y/Y to $17.7B ($0.6B beat).
• EPS $3.59 ($0.20 beat).
• New bookings +1% Y/Y to $18.7B.
• AI bookings $1.2B (vs. $1.0B in Q4 FY24).
FY25 guidance:
• Revenue up to +7% Y/Y fx neutral. https://t.co/FrEuYGzzoI
tweet
InsideArbitrage
📢 $DLTR Dollar Tree appoints Michael C. Creedon, Jr. as CEO effective immediately.
Creedon had been serving as the interim CEO since November 3, 2024"
$DLTR Dollar Tree CFO Jeff Davis steps down but will stay on through the fiscal 2024 Form 10-K filing. The company has begun an external search for his replacement.
This comes just a month after CEO Rick Dreiling’s departure due to health challenges. 👔💼
💼 Leadership Search On: The board is hunting for new CFO and CEO candidates, considering both internal and external options.
💸 Strong Q3 Results: Sales rose 3.6% to $7.57B (beating $7.45B estimates).
Same-store sales were up 1.8%.
Adjusted EPS of $1.12/share beat expectations by $0.05.
💡 Sales Guidance Update: Dollar Tree raised its full-year sales outlook to $30.7B–$30.9B, adding $100M to the low end.
📉 The stock, down ~50% YTD, saw a 5% premarket jump to $76.15 after the earnings and CFO resignation news.
🏪 Family Dollar Strategy Under Review: A potential sale, spin-off, or other disposition of the chain is on the table. No timeline yet, but ~670 underperforming stores have already been closed.
1/2 "- InsideArbitrage
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Pender Fund on Howard Hughes $HHC US
Thesis: Howard Hughes’ undervalued real estate assets and strategic review offer an asymmetric opportunity for short-term gains
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/pQUVTZIGcS
tweet
Investing visuals
Clash of the Classics: Pepsi $PEP vs. CocaCola $KO. Who would you pick? https://t.co/gMGhTGWFqW
tweet
InsideArbitrage
Soho House $SHCO received an offer from a new third-party consortium to acquire the company for $9.00 per share.
✴️The offer is conditioned on certain significant shareholders, including Soho's Executive Chairman, Ron Burkle, and The Yucaipa Companies, rolling over their equity interests as part of the transaction.
✴️ The Board has formed an independent Special Committee to evaluate the offer.
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Riverwater Partners on Uranium Energy Corp $UEC US
Thesis: Uranium Energy Corp. stands to benefit from clean energy demand, supply constraints, and geopolitical diversification
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sE6FkgMvmA
tweet
Startup Archive
Elon Musk on the most important lesson he learned at PayPal
“The initial thought with PayPal was to create an agglomeration of financial services. So you’d have one place where all of your financial services needs would be seamlessly integrated and work smoothly. And then we had a little feature for email payments. And whenever we’d show the system off to someone, we’d show the hard part — the agglomeration of financial services, which was quite difficult to put together. Nobody was interested. Then we’d show people email payments, which was actually quite easy, and everybody was interested.”
Elon continues:
“I think it’s important to take feedback from your environment. You want to be as closed-loop as possible. And so we focused on email payments and really tried to make that work. And that’s what really got things to take off. But if we hadn’t responded to what people said, then we probably would not have been successful. So it’s important to look for things like that and focus on them when you see them and correct your prior assumptions.”
tweet
Investing visuals
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a red day like this. Did you pick up shares of your favorite companies? 💸 https://t.co/Un9ORrLTX4
tweet
InsideArbitrage
🏘️ $TPH Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. Announces $250 Million Stock Repurchase Program (7% of its current market cap) which succeeds the Dec 2023 plan
🏠 Under this plan, the homebuilder repurchased 1.2 million shares in Q4 at an average price of $41.57, totaling $50 million, and 3.96 million shares YTD at $36.97, totaling $146.6 million
🏠 It has been consistent with share repurchases, reducing shares outstanding by 25+% in the last 4 yrs!
tweet
ce: $362.5M
Emergency Forest Restoration Program, Assistance for emergency forest restoration: $356.5M
Fisheries Disaster Assistance, Fishery resource disaster relief: $300.0M
Payments to States for the Child Care and Development Block Grant, Expenses for child care services: $250.0M
Payments to States for the Child Care and Development Block Grant, Expenses related to major disasters: $250.0M
International Boundary and Water Commission, United States and Mexico,Construction expenses: $250.0M
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Operations, Research, and Facilities,Repair and replacement of observing assets and mapping services: $244.0M
Department of Homeland Security Coast Guard Procurement, Construction, and Improvements,Expenses related to consequences of disasters: $210.2M
State, Private, and Tribal Forestry,Forest Health Protection assistance for spruce budworm outbreak: $208.0M
Department of the Interior Indian Affairs Bureau of Indian Education Education Construction, Expenses related to natural disasters: $153.0M
Department of Defense Other Procurement, Air Force,Expenses related to consequences of Typhoon Mawar: $129.7M
Department of Defense Procurement, Procurement of Ammunition,Army,Expenses related to consequences of Hurricane Helene: $125.1M
Department of Homeland Security Coast Guard Operations and Support, Expenses related to Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse and other disasters: $102.5M
Family Housing Operation and Maintenance, Navy and Marine Corps,Expenses related to Typhoon Mawar: $102.2M
State and Tribal Assistance Grants, Hazardous waste financial assistance and solid waste management activities: $95.0M
Department of Defense Operation and Maintenance, Space Force,Expenses related to consequences of certain hurricanes and Typhoon Mawar: $90.2M
District of Columbia—Federal Payment for Emergency Planning and Security Costs in the District of Columbia, Costs associated with the Presidential Inauguration: $90.0M
State and Tribal Assistance Grants, Clean Water State Revolving Funds capitalization grants: $85.0M
National Forest System, Funding for shaded fuel breaks construction and maintenance: $75.0M
Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation, Water and Related Resources,Expenses related to natural disasters: $74.5M
Department of Defense Research, Development,Test and Evaluation,Airforce,Expenses related to consequences of Typhoon Mawar: $69.3M
Forest Service Operations, Expenses for wildfires and natural disasters: $68.1M
Federal Prison System Buildings and Facilities, Necessary expenses related to consequences of major disasters: $64.8M
State and Tribal Assistance Grants, Water emergencies address funds under Safe Drinking Water Act: $60.0M
Department of Energy Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Expenses related to damages caused by natural disasters: $60.0M
Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management Management of Lands and Resources, Expenses related to natural disasters: $58.1M
Corps of Engineers—Civil Mississippi River and Tributaries, Expenses related to Corps projects caused by natural disasters: $50.0M
Department of the Interior National Park Service Historic Preservation Fund, Expenses related to natural disasters: $50.0M
Safe Drinking Water Act Amendment, Increase funding for various drinking water programs: $50.0M
Buildings and Facilities, Emergency expenses for agricultural research facilities: $42.5M
Medical Facilities, Expenses related to Hurricanes Milton and Helene and other disasters: $41.7M
Department of Defense Research, Development,Test and Evaluation,Army,Expenses related to consequences of severe storms: $41.4M
Department of Defense Procurement, Space Force,Expenses related to consequences of Typhoon Mawar: $38.0M
Recycling Infrastructure and Accessibility Program, Funding to improve recycling accessibility in underserved communities: $30.0M
Family Housing Construction, Navy and Marine Corps,Expenses related to Typhoo[...]
Quiver Quantitative
We've been writing code to track government spending.
Here's an update on how much money publicly traded companies have received from public awards in 2024.
Per our estimates:
1. UnitedHealth Group: $18.5B
2. Lockheed Martin: $16.1B
3. Boeing: $13.7B
4. Leidos Holdings: $8.81B
5. General Dynamics: $7.75B
6. McKesson: $7.35B
7. Booz Allen Hamilton: $7B
8. Northrop Grumman: $6.89B
9. L3Harris Technologies: $5.62B
10. Fluor Corp: $5.35B
11. Huntington Ingalls: $4.49B
12. Science Applications International: $3.98B
13. Raytheon: $3.49B
14. Resideo Technologies: $3.2B
15. Accenture: $2.98B
16. CACI International: $2.92B
17. Merck: $2.87B
18. Parsons: $2.43B
19. General Electric: $1.62B
20. Sanofi: $1.56B
21. Textron: $1.3B
22. Pfizer: $1.28B
23. AT&T: $1.21B
24. Cencora: $1.16B
25. International Business Machines: $1.13B
26. CGI Inc: $1.1B
27. Maximus: $1.08B
28. Fedex: $954M
29. GEO Group: $954M
30. Charter Communications: $913M
31. Oracle: $888M
32. Tetra Tech: $845M
33. KBR: $841M
34. Valero Energy: $799M
35. Oshkosh: $773M
36. BP: $622M
37. Aecom: $576M
38. ICF International: $561M
39. Olin Corp: $546M
40. Cardinal Health: $491M
41. Brown & Brown: $489M
42. Palantir: $441M
43. CoreCivic: $416M
44. US Foods Holding: $385M
45. A-Mark Precious Metals: $375M
46. Verizon Communications: $368M
47. Microsoft: $365M
48. ASGN: $362M
49. Nelnet: $321M
50. Caterpillar Inc: $299M
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
The new continuing resolution appears to have removed almost all of the items specifically called out by @elonmusk.
- No pay raise for Congress
- No transfer of the RFK stadium land
- No "justice-involved individuals" and "individuals experiencing homelessness" language changes
- No Global Engagement Center extension
- No section on "Pandemic Preparedness and Response"
Still working on reading through the details - follow here for updates.
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
There will reportedly be a vote held in a few hours on a new GOP proposal with a:
- 3 month continuing resolution
- Suspension of debt limit till January 2027
- $110B in disaster relief
- Extension of farm bill
- NO raise for Congress
Do you support this deal?
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
CAGR Estimates of Quality Compounders 📈
🫱🏼🫲🏻 MercadoLibre $MELI *
•15% @ 36x
•12% @ 34x
🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG **
•14% @ 24x
•12% @ 23x
💿 Advanced Micro Devices $AMD *
•14% @ 22x
•9% @ 20x
🖨️ Applied Materials $AMAT **
•13% @ 20x
•11% @ 19x
📠 ASML Holding $ASML **
•13% @ 28x
•11% @ 27x
🤖 Nvidia $NVDA *
•12% @ 30x
•9% @ 28x
💵 PayPal $PYPL *
•14% @ 21x
•12% @ 20x
💳 Visa $V **
•12% @ 30x
•9% @ 28x
___
* Fiscal Year (FY ending 2026 / Jan 2027)
**FY ending 2027
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Hamilton Lane $HLNE US
Thesis: Hamilton Lane’s dominant position in private market data and discretionary asset management drives its growth amid rising investor demand
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/bKBE1kpSfN
tweet
InsideArbitrage
📢 $LW Lamb Weston Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results; Board Approves $250 Million Share Repurchase Authorization Increase and Increases Quarterly Dividend; Updates Fiscal Year 2025 Outlook
🥔Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Highlights
GAAP Results as Compared to Second Quarter Fiscal 2024:
◦Net sales declined 8% to $1,601 million
◦Income from operations declined 94% to $19 million
◦Net income declined $251 million to a loss of $36 million
◦Diluted EPS declined $1.73 to a loss of $0.25
•Non-GAAP Results as Compared to Second Quarter
🥔Fiscal 2024:
◦Adjusted Income from Operations(1) declined 41% to $178 million
◦Adjusted Net Income(1) declined 55% to $95 million
◦Adjusted Diluted EPS(1) declined 54% to $0.66
◦Adjusted EBITDA(1) declined 25% to $282 million
•Paid $51.6 million in cash dividends to common shareholders
🥔Updated Fiscal 2025 Outlook
•Net sales of $6.35 billion to $6.45 billion
•GAAP net income target of $330 million to $350 million, and Diluted EPS target of $2.30 to $2.45
•Adjusted EBITDA(1) of $1,170 million to $1,210 million
•Adjusted Net Income(1) target of $440 million to $460 million and Adjusted Diluted EPS(1) target of $3.05 to $3.20
tweet
InsideArbitrage
🎯The InsideArbitrage C-Suite Transitions is out!
$HR Healthcare Realty’s Management Overhaul – C-Suite Transitions
1/7 https://t.co/rW5J2Tr19c
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO boasts a stellar record of EPS growth over the long haul 📈
Pre-pandemic, it saw revenue increase in 14 of 15 years ✅
Post-boom normalization has been a challenge, but 2024 looks set for a growth resurgence 🧬
#stocks #investing https://t.co/vWgDBKQYj2
tweet
Capital Employed
What stock are you super bullish on as head into 2025? 🐂
tweet
InsideArbitrage
Teoxane said in a 13D filing that it believes that the acquisition of Revance $RVNC by Crown Laboratories for $3.10 per share undervalues the company and that the consummation of the merger is not in the best interests of its stockholders.
tweet
InsideArbitrage
Capital One $COF announced it received approval from the Office of the Delaware State Bank Commissioner on December 18, 2024, to complete its acquisition of Discover Financial $DFS.
Capital One anticipates that the transaction will close in early 2025, subject to the approval by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Diamond Hill on Allfunds $ALLFG NA
Thesis: Allfunds’ structural growth drivers and exchange-like platform make it an undervalued leader in European fund distribution
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/vsfR81Cf53
tweet
InsideArbitrage
$GO Grocery Outlet has appointed Christopher M. Miller as EVP & CFO, effective January 6, 2025. Miller joins from Shamrock Foods, where he served as CFO since January 2023. He will report to Eric J. Lindberg Jr., who has been serving as Interim President & CEO since October 2024. 📈
💼 Compensation Package
Base Salary: $550K 💵
Target Bonus: 60% of base salary 💰
Signing Bonus: $100K 🎉
Equity: Annual grants worth 200% of salary (60% PSUs, 40% RSUs) + $400K RSUs as a new hire grant 📊
🔄 Transition Details
Lindsay E. Gray will step down as Interim CFO on January 6, 2025, after serving in the role since February 2024. She will continue as SVP, Accounting & Principal Accounting Officer. 🤝
This follows the resignation of RJ Sheedy in October, which led to Lindberg stepping in as Interim CEO. The company is actively searching for a permanent CEO. 🚀
The stock is down nearly 41% since last year.
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
Working on using AI to break down the 1,500 page continuing resolution into something more digestible.
Here's a long list of some of the spending outlined within the resolution:
Emergency expenses related to losses of revenue and production of crops: $30.8B
FEMA Disaster Relief Fund, Funding for major disasters: $29.0B
Community Development Fund, Funding for disaster recovery and resilience activities: $12.0B
Emergency Relief Program, Funding for repair damages resulted from cargo ship Dali: $8.1B
Department of Defense—Procurement—Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy,Columbia Class Submarine (AP): $6.0B
Department of Defense—Procurement—Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy,Virginia Class Submarine program and workforce wage improvements: $5.7B
Capital Improvement and Maintenance, Expenses for wildfires and natural disasters: $3.5B
Department of Defense—Procurement—Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy,Columbia Class Submarine: $2.9B
National Forest System, Expenses related to the consequences of wildfires and natural disasters: $2.5B
Department of the Interior National Park Service Construction, Expenses related to natural disasters: $2.3B
Small Business Administration Disaster Loans Program Account, Cost of direct loans for disaster assistance: $2.2B
Office of the Secretary, Assistance to producers of livestock and related losses: $2.0B
State and Tribal Assistance Grants, Safeguarding drinking water facilities affected by natural disasters: $1.8B
Economic Development Assistance Programs, Economic adjustment assistance related to flood mitigation, disaster relief, long-term recovery, and restoration of infrastructure in disaster areas: $1.5B
Department of Homeland Security Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon Fire Assistance Account, Funding for fire assistance: $1.5B
Department of Defense Operation and Maintenance, Navy,Expenses related to consequences of various hurricanes and severe storms: $1.5B
State and Tribal Assistance Grants, Clean Water State Revolving Funds capitalization grants: $1.2B
Military Construction, Navy and Marine Corps,Expenses for Typhoon Mawar consequences: $1.1B
Emergency Watershed Protection Program, Emergency expenses for watershed protection: $920.0M
Department of Defense—Operation and Maintenance—Defense-Wide, Risk reduction and modification of National Security Systems: $913.4M
Department of Defense Operation and Maintenance, Airforce,Expenses related to consequences of certain hurricanes and Typhoon Mawar: $912.8M
Emergency Conservation Program, Assistance for emergency conservation: $828.0M
Corps of Engineers—Civil Flood Control and Coastal Emergencies, Expenses to prepare for flood and hurricane disasters: $745.0M
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Construction and Environmental Compliance and Restoration, Repair and replacement of NASA facilities damaged by natural disasters: $740.2M
Corps of Engineers—Civil Construction, Emergency expenses to address natural disasters: $700.0M
Department of Commerce—National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—Procurement, Acquisition and Construction,Acquisition schedule for Geostationary Earth Orbit: $625.0M
Department of the Interior United States Fish and Wildlife Service Construction, Expenses related to natural disasters: $500.0M
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Procurement, Acquisition and Construction,Repair and replacement of observing assets and acquisition of hurricane hunter aircraft: $499.0M
Military Construction, Air Force,Expenses for Typhoon Mawar consequences: $487.3M
Department of Defense Operation and Maintenance, Army,Expenses related to consequences of severe storms and hurricanes: $451.9M
Rural Development Disaster Assistance Fund, Rural development disaster assistan[...]
Stock Analysis Compilation
Stock Analysis Compilation #67 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
50 stock pitches from the best hedge funds & newsletters :
$ADBE $ALCO $AMAT $ASPI $BOC $CHGG $CPNG $FAST $GOOGL $HIMS $INTU $JBI $K $KSS $TREE $LULU $MBUU $META $PLTR $QSR $REVG $CRM $IOT $SRPT $NOW $TBLA $ZTS and many more
tweet