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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Stock Analysis Compilation
Pender Fund on Calian Group $CGY CN
Thesis: Calian’s diversified operations and strategic capital allocation offer strong long-term growth potential amid short-term headwinds
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/VP6FIgrAbo
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InsideArbitrage
Prosus Acquires Despegar $DESP for $1.7 Billion in Cash Deal -
🏖️Each outstanding share of Despegar will be converted into the right to receive $19.50 per share in cash, representing a 33.11% premium from the stock’s last close.
🏖️Once the transaction is complete, expected in Q2 2025, Despegar will become a private company.
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Investing visuals
What's so special about $HIMS?
I've looking into the company but fail to see what durable competitive advantage they have. Can someone enlighten me? https://t.co/OQoUid2cAo
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InsideArbitrage
Nissan and Honda $HMC sign memorandum of understanding to consider business integration -
🚗The MOU is to start discussions and considerations toward a business integration between the two companies through the establishment of a joint holding company.
🚗Smaller Mitsubishi Motors, in which Nissan is a top shareholder, was also considering joining the MOU.
🚗Nissan and Honda aim to become a world-class mobility company with sales revenue exceeding 30 trillion yen and operating profit of more than 3 trillion yen.
🚗The companies aim to wrap up talks around June 2025 and then set up a holding company by August 2026.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
RS Investments on Northern Oil and Gas $NOG US
Thesis: Northern Oil and Gas’ capital-efficient model and superior returns position it to thrive across diverse commodity price environments
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/gph1KIhsuB
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Markwayne Mullin has bought up to $250,000 of the iShares Eurozone ETF, $EZU.
It is comprised of equities from countries that use the Euro.
This is the first time we have seen a member of Congress buy it.
Mullin sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee. https://t.co/89L77ufXrr
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InsideArbitrage
$KR enters into a $5 billion accelerated share repurchase agreement (ASR) under its recently announced $7.5 billion share repurchase authorization
Final settlement under the ASR agreements is expected to occur by 3Q of Kroger's FY 2025
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Quiver Quantitative
The House has voted against the new continuing resolution:
174 Yeas
235 Nays
Chip Roy (R) said:
“To take this bill and congratulate yourself because it’s shorter in pages, but increases the debt by $5T, is asinine”
https://t.co/u7v9EN6Jqo
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Quiver Quantitative
The continuing resolution is now 116 pages, a reduction of over 90% from the previous 1,547 pages.
Two more iterations, and this could be a one-pager.
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Quiver Quantitative
Text for the new continuing resolution was just released.
Down to just 115 pages, as opposed to 1,500 yesterday.
Currently working on analyzing it, looking for changes from the old proposal.
Will report back later.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Parnassus on Atlassian $TEAM US
Thesis: Atlassian’s industry-leading software and cloud migration provide a strong foundation for long-term growth and margin expansion
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/dx06YPFRgD
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Dan Crenshaw has made just 33 trades while in office.
He hasn't disclosed any trades in over a year.
However, he has made a few of the most well-timed trades we've seen.
Here his five most profitable transactions: https://t.co/H5TteGlwur
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App Economy Insights
$ACN Accenture Q1 FY25 (Nov. quarter):
• Revenue +9% Y/Y to $17.7B ($0.6B beat).
• EPS $3.59 ($0.20 beat).
• New bookings +1% Y/Y to $18.7B.
• AI bookings $1.2B (vs. $1.0B in Q4 FY24).
FY25 guidance:
• Revenue up to +7% Y/Y fx neutral. https://t.co/FrEuYGzzoI
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InsideArbitrage
📢 $DLTR Dollar Tree appoints Michael C. Creedon, Jr. as CEO effective immediately.
Creedon had been serving as the interim CEO since November 3, 2024"
$DLTR Dollar Tree CFO Jeff Davis steps down but will stay on through the fiscal 2024 Form 10-K filing. The company has begun an external search for his replacement.
This comes just a month after CEO Rick Dreiling’s departure due to health challenges. 👔💼
💼 Leadership Search On: The board is hunting for new CFO and CEO candidates, considering both internal and external options.
💸 Strong Q3 Results: Sales rose 3.6% to $7.57B (beating $7.45B estimates).
Same-store sales were up 1.8%.
Adjusted EPS of $1.12/share beat expectations by $0.05.
💡 Sales Guidance Update: Dollar Tree raised its full-year sales outlook to $30.7B–$30.9B, adding $100M to the low end.
📉 The stock, down ~50% YTD, saw a 5% premarket jump to $76.15 after the earnings and CFO resignation news.
🏪 Family Dollar Strategy Under Review: A potential sale, spin-off, or other disposition of the chain is on the table. No timeline yet, but ~670 underperforming stores have already been closed.
1/2 "- InsideArbitrage
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Pender Fund on Howard Hughes $HHC US
Thesis: Howard Hughes’ undervalued real estate assets and strategic review offer an asymmetric opportunity for short-term gains
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/pQUVTZIGcS
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InsideArbitrage
Fund 1 Investments, which currently owns 10.6% of Destination XL $DXLG, has made a non-binding proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Destination XL that it does not already own, offering $3.00 per share in cash.
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Startup Archive
Marc Andreessen on Mark Zuckerberg’s founder “superpower”
“There are certain fields in which you really get to see somebody’s core personality. You get to see their core attributes, their core virtues, their core vices, and their core weaknesses. And it’s really only under situations of extreme stress where you really get to see that.”
Startups is one of those fields, and Marc points to Mark Zuckerberg as someone who handles extremely stressful situations well:
“A great superpower that Mark Zuckerberg has that is probably not well-understood enough is he does not get emotionally upset in stressful situations. He is able to maintain an analytical frame of mind even when other people would be bursting into tears and hiding under the table. And I’ve seen that many, many times… I’ve been involved almost for 20 years and we’ve been through almost everything good and bad, and I have literally not once seen him raise his voice.”
Marc explains why he believes this ability to keep your cool and maintain control of your emotions is such an important quality:
“Generally the thing that happens before a company goes down is the team cracks internally. The founders turn on each other. The management team dissolves. And so a big part of it with these things is just like: Can you keep the team together? If you can keep the team together then most these companies can battle through most things. I’ve seen just as many incredible last minute saves, rescues, and turnarounds as I have screaming disasters. And so, there is reason for optimism going into even the dark times.”
Video source: @ChrisWillx (2024)
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InsideArbitrage
Hyatt $H Evaluates Strategic Options, Including Potential Acquisition of Playa Hotels $PLYA -
🛎️Hyatt entered into an exclusivity agreement with Playa Hotels & Resorts, granting Hyatt a 45-day period during which Playa Hotels agrees not to engage in discussions or negotiations with any other party.
🛎️Hyatt is exploring various strategic options for its investment in Playa Hotels. These include submitting a proposal to potentially acquire most or all of Playa Hotels’ assets or stock.
🛎️Hyatt has engaged consultants and advisors and may seek outside capital or collaborate with other parties.
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Hidden Value Gems
In my latest Investment Notes I highlight Stella Jones (TSX:SJ) - a leading producer of wooden electricity poles, growing at a double-digit rate with 17-18% EBITDA margin. Trades at 12.6x PE.
Stock is down 5.5% YTD on softer demand this year, likely temporary given huge infrastructure spending ahead.
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InsideArbitrage
$EXPE Expedia Group appoints Scott Schenkel as CFO, effective Dec 30, 2024.
Julie Whalen remains CFO until the transition.
Schenkel’s previous roles include Interim CEO (2019-2020) and CFO (2015-2019) at eBay.
Compensation
Scott Schenkel will receive an annual base salary of $1M. He will also receive a $3M signing bonus on his start date, followed by an additional $2.2M signing bonus on December 15, 2025, contingent on his continued employment.
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Startup Archive
Patrick Collison on what most startups get wrong pre-product/market fit
“The main thing that I think companies screw up at the pre-product/market fit stage is speed of iteration. If you have some kind of meaningful—albeit perhaps small—initial set of users and you’re rapidly iterating in response to their feedback and observed behavior, I think that’s a really good spot to be in… You should be doing everything you can to tighten that feedback cycle.”
Patrick believes most startups get this wrong when it comes to hiring — either they hire the wrong people or they hire too many people. Hiring isn’t just expensive financially, but it often makes you move slower. You have to onboard them, get them up to speed, and then there’s a persistent communication and alignment tax that scales quadratically with more team members.
Patrick believes the ultimate arbiter for a new hire should be, “Will we be more responsive to what we’re learning about our users given the presence of this additional person?”
Empirically the “optimally responsive” team for a pre-product/market fit startup seems to be 2-10 people who are all either building the product or talking to users.
Video source: @ycombinator (2018)
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InsideArbitrage
🚛 $FDX FedEx shares surged ~8% after hours as the logistics operator 👇👇
📦Unveils plans to ✂️ spin off FedEx Freight in a tax-free separation, forming 2 independent public companies; Expected to be executed within the next 18 months
📦CEO: “This is the right time to pursue a separation as we respond to the unique dynamics of the LTL market. Through this process, we will unlock value for our Freight business and position FedEx to create even greater value for stockholders.”
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
My favorite time to deploy capital 🧘🏽♂️
You know the saying: “Be fearful when others are greedy & greedy when others are fearful”
Warren Buffett 🗣️"
JUST IN 🚨: Extreme Fear returns to the Stock Market 👻😱 - We did it 🫡🫂 "- Barchart
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Quiver Quantitative
The new continuing resolution appears to have removed almost all of the items specifically called out by @elonmusk.
- No pay raise for Congress
- No transfer of the RFK stadium land
- No "justice-involved individuals" and "individuals experiencing homelessness" language changes
- No Global Engagement Center extension
- No section on "Pandemic Preparedness and Response"
Still working on reading through the details - follow here for updates.
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Quiver Quantitative
There will reportedly be a vote held in a few hours on a new GOP proposal with a:
- 3 month continuing resolution
- Suspension of debt limit till January 2027
- $110B in disaster relief
- Extension of farm bill
- NO raise for Congress
Do you support this deal?
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
CAGR Estimates of Quality Compounders 📈
🫱🏼🫲🏻 MercadoLibre $MELI *
•15% @ 36x
•12% @ 34x
🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG **
•14% @ 24x
•12% @ 23x
💿 Advanced Micro Devices $AMD *
•14% @ 22x
•9% @ 20x
🖨️ Applied Materials $AMAT **
•13% @ 20x
•11% @ 19x
📠 ASML Holding $ASML **
•13% @ 28x
•11% @ 27x
🤖 Nvidia $NVDA *
•12% @ 30x
•9% @ 28x
💵 PayPal $PYPL *
•14% @ 21x
•12% @ 20x
💳 Visa $V **
•12% @ 30x
•9% @ 28x
___
* Fiscal Year (FY ending 2026 / Jan 2027)
**FY ending 2027
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Hamilton Lane $HLNE US
Thesis: Hamilton Lane’s dominant position in private market data and discretionary asset management drives its growth amid rising investor demand
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/bKBE1kpSfN
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InsideArbitrage
📢 $LW Lamb Weston Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results; Board Approves $250 Million Share Repurchase Authorization Increase and Increases Quarterly Dividend; Updates Fiscal Year 2025 Outlook
🥔Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Highlights
GAAP Results as Compared to Second Quarter Fiscal 2024:
◦Net sales declined 8% to $1,601 million
◦Income from operations declined 94% to $19 million
◦Net income declined $251 million to a loss of $36 million
◦Diluted EPS declined $1.73 to a loss of $0.25
•Non-GAAP Results as Compared to Second Quarter
🥔Fiscal 2024:
◦Adjusted Income from Operations(1) declined 41% to $178 million
◦Adjusted Net Income(1) declined 55% to $95 million
◦Adjusted Diluted EPS(1) declined 54% to $0.66
◦Adjusted EBITDA(1) declined 25% to $282 million
•Paid $51.6 million in cash dividends to common shareholders
🥔Updated Fiscal 2025 Outlook
•Net sales of $6.35 billion to $6.45 billion
•GAAP net income target of $330 million to $350 million, and Diluted EPS target of $2.30 to $2.45
•Adjusted EBITDA(1) of $1,170 million to $1,210 million
•Adjusted Net Income(1) target of $440 million to $460 million and Adjusted Diluted EPS(1) target of $3.05 to $3.20
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InsideArbitrage
🎯The InsideArbitrage C-Suite Transitions is out!
$HR Healthcare Realty’s Management Overhaul – C-Suite Transitions
1/7 https://t.co/rW5J2Tr19c
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO boasts a stellar record of EPS growth over the long haul 📈
Pre-pandemic, it saw revenue increase in 14 of 15 years ✅
Post-boom normalization has been a challenge, but 2024 looks set for a growth resurgence 🧬
#stocks #investing https://t.co/vWgDBKQYj2
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