4
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
AkhenOsiris
RT @RadnorCapital: Caught up with Sport Radar $SRAD this morning. Thesis intact. It doesn't appear that declining NBA viewership is having any negative impact on the business and they continue to be very happy with the contract and opportunity to provide more solutions to leagues and sportsbooks (4sight streaming, alpha odds, etc.). I could also make the argument that declining viewership incentivizes leagues to invest more in fan engagement, which is a core mission / competency of Sport Radar.
Interesting how the narrative around NBA vs. MLB has shifted over the last couple of years. I'd imagine they continue to ebb and flow.
I'd also note that the NBA is one of many leagues Sport Radar does business with globally. Sport Radar $SRAD reported this morning, and the stock is up ~10%. They are the leading provider of data and analytics to the sports ecosystem (most importantly sports betting books). Think of it as a “picks and shovels” play on the growth of online sports betting / fan engagement globally.
I’ve been long this stock for a couple of years, and it has done nothing – my blended cost is just under $10 (stock currently ~$10.45). You would have been better off putting your money in the S&P 500 and forgetting about it (I recommend this to young investors with time on their side). Also, important to note that being early is often indistinguishable from being wrong. So do your own work.
So why has the stock of a rule of 40 (revenue growth rate + profit margin > 40%) company trading <10x60% of the company is owned by insiders: Canada Pension Plan, Tehcnology Crossover, and Radcliff. If you’re a PM, its just easier to express a bullish view on sports / betting by owning Draft Kings (again, I like them both). Sport Radar is a more complicated story, with a much lower float, and it hasn’t gone anywhere in a couple of years (no bid) – so why bother?
My best guess (again, I’ve been wrong) is that sentiment around this stock mimics what Draft Kings was a couple years ago – people thought Draft Kings was a decent business but would never be a good stock because they would never get leverage on their massive customer acquisition costs. Draft Kings is up ~4x since that narrative was popular.
Bull case math for Sport Radar suggests 2026 revenue could be ~$1.5-1.6bn (vs. street ~$1.3-1.4bn) and almost $400mm EBITDA (vs. street ~$300mm). I get there using a ~20% revenue CAGR (which we have visibility into given the contracted nature of their business) and a ~25% EBITDA margin (low end of their 25-30% long term target). So even if we don’t get multiple expansion (which I find hard to believe, given the upside to numbers), the stock should theoretically compound with earnings growth >20%.
A few other thoughts from the call…
Revenue grew +28% y/y and EBITDA +29% y/y in Q1, despite elevated sports rights costs. US revenue grew +65% (~25% of total) and rest of world +19% (~75% of total). Raised full year guidance (although by less than the beat, but this is conservatism – the current CFO wants the new CFO to have a low bar when he starts in June). Also $5-6mm of project costs moved from Q1 to rest of the year. As confident as ever with operational structure and margin trajectory. NRR (net retention rate – basically the growth from existing customers minus churn) accelerated to 116%, from 111% in Q4 2023. Announced intention to commence share repurchases under $200mm authorization in the next trading window – they agree that their stock is undervalued. Strong balance sheet with ~$275mm net cash and generating substantial free cash flow. Excited about Alpha Odds product – new AI-driven odds technology that has helped operators boost profits, most notably by an average of ~15% during this years UEFA championship qualifiers. Alpha Odds is currently live in soccer, but they plan to launch soon with tennis and basketball, before adding 3 more [...]
AkhenOsiris
Imagine everyone in the world was as easy to convince as Ivan? 😂
tweet
AkhenOsiris
$ZS CEO Chaudhry just finished speaking at Needham Growth Conference
"From budget and spend point of view, I see no concern on the cyber budget side of it. In fact, cyber is becoming more and more critical. It's not just on CISO's mind, it's CIO's mind, it's on board's mind, it's audit committees mind as well. Most customers we talk to and I talk to lots of them, the cyber budget are generally flat to maybe up 5% or 10%. They have been going up. Most cases, they're up to some degree. Now IT budgets, some of these IT budgets are flat. And some may have gone up, but in many cases, customers are asking for how do reduce cost. And some of the money may be getting redirected towards some of the Al projects. So we see pressure on the IT side of it not on the cyber side of it. What we are able to do in that situation? Think of this diagram. If I can start showing the picture and say, Mr. Customer, can take out these 6 products in Q1, these 3 in Q2, these 7, 3rd quarter and 4th quarter and create a spreadsheet table showing net cost savings, that story is very compelling.
And we end up saving a lot of money, that's how we get the deals done. Now think of this as essentially consolidation and simplification. Of course, some vendors like to talk about platformization and all this stuff. This is essentially consolidation."
tweet
Investing visuals
Duolingo $DUOL A.K.A. "The Money Bird": its paying user growth over time is top notch👌 https://t.co/MeMU4H6aI9
tweet
App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: 🎮 Could Tencent buy Ubisoft?
Bloomberg reported that the Chinese giant may pursue a buyout or take the company private.
The stock is nearly 90% off its 2021 high.
Who else could step in? 👇
https://t.co/hyCc7Jx3NW
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Asset Fund on Welltower $WELL US
Thesis: Welltower Inc. is well-positioned to capitalize on robust growth opportunities in the senior housing industry, with potential for earnings to more than double over the next five years due to favorable demographics and strategic management initiatives.
(Extract from their Q3 letter)
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: @RepBrandonGill just introduced the “REMAIN in Mexico Act”.
It would re-instate Trump’s “Migrant Protection Protocols”.
Follow here for updates. https://t.co/XASDo1wZ5k
tweet
InsideArbitrage
Arch Resources $ARCH and CONSOL Energy $CEIX announced that their shareholders have approved all proposals related to the pending merger of the two companies. The transaction is expected to close on January 14, 2025. Post-completion, the combined company will be renamed "Core Natural Resources, Inc." and its common stock is expected to begin trading on the NYSE under the symbol "CNR" on January 15, 2025.
tweet
Startup Archive
Sam Altman on how he thinks about OpenAI competitors
“I won’t say we totally ignore competitors. I think everybody pays a little bit of attention and there’s some value. It can give you some inspiration. But… I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about it. We’re just trying to figure out the next paradigm and the next great idea. If other people want to chase to where we are right now, I don’t think that’s going to be a great strategy.”
Sam continues:
“Once you know that something is possible and roughly how to do it, it always gets copied quickly. That’s not the hard part. The hard part is figuring out what it is and doing it first when you don’t know it’s possible. So we’ll keep doing that, and other people will keep copying where we’ve been.”
OpenAI controversy aside, I think this is genuinely good advice for any founder worrying about competitors copying their idea. If your competitors can copy you, you probably need to set more ambitious goals.
Perhaps Elon Musk put it best when he said:
“Patents are for the weak… They don’t actually help advance things. They just stop others from following you.”
Video source: @HarvardHBS (2024)
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
Quite unexpected results.
Thank you for voting ! 🙏
Something I have started considering and was wondering what smart people were doing.
Are you thinking of relocating to save on costs & taxes, improve lifestyle and other reasons?
- Yes
- No
- I have just relocated
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
China is the second best country in terms of improving consumer sentiment, ahead of US...just flagging this survey by AlixParnters https://t.co/C1fbbEohfz
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: Democratic Senator Jon @ossoff has announced that he will vote for the Laken Riley Act. https://t.co/uGew9AfY3b
tweet
InsideArbitrage
.
🚂 $GBX Greenbrier Reports Strong First Quarter Results; Renews $100 million share repurchase authorization (~5% of current market cap)
Q1 Highlights:
💵 Net earnings: $55M ($1.72/share) on $876M revenue
📈 EBITDA: $145M (16.6% of revenue)
🚛 Lease fleet growth: +1,200 units to 16,700; utilization ~99%
🚂 New railcar orders: 3,800 units worth $520M; backlog: 23,400 units ($3.0B)
💰 Dividend declared: $0.30/share, payable Feb 19, 2025 (43rd consecutive)
🔄 Share repurchase: $100M authorization extended to Jan 2027
CEO: “Greenbrier achieved impressive results in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, delivering exceptional bottom-line performance and ROIC within our long-term range. The ongoing expansion of the lease fleet and the resulting recurring revenue is very encouraging. Our strong aggregate gross margin for the quarter was driven by a product mix weighted to more profitable railcar types and continued optimization in our manufacturing processes and capacity. We continue to streamline our business with the combination of our Manufacturing and Maintenance Services segments into one reportable segment, part of a strategic organizational alignment that commenced one year ago.”
https://t.co/mftI470QZS
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Just caught a penny stock purchase from Representative Laurel Lee.
Her spouse bought stock in a company called TuHURA Bio, $HURA, on November 25th.
It rose 87% in the four days following the trade.
Seeing what I can find on this - follow here for updates. https://t.co/WxnBQVW1Rx
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Can’t wait to start reading these two books, feel like a kid on Christmas Morning🎁 https://t.co/5la1fSAKLu
tweet
AkhenOsiris
Adweek: Agencies Are Spending More on TikTok Ads This Year Despite US Ban Uncertainty
One agency executive, speaking anonymously to protect industry relations, plans to increase the agency’s TikTok spend by 20%–30% this year. DigiShopGirl Media will increase spend by between 15%–18% over the year, according to CEO Katya Constantine. At VML, clients are boosting their yearly influencer budgets on TikTok by 30-50%. Some brands are committing for the entire year, while others are focusing on the first half of the year or maintaining a steady stream of ad-hoc campaigns throughout, according to Mae Karwowski, CEO of Obviously, VML’s influencer marketing agency.
U.S. ad spend on TikTok is projected to surge 57% YoY in the first two months of 2025, according to ad data firm Guideline, based on forward booking data from agency partners for upcoming campaigns. And TikTok has been growing: Since 2020, TikTok has posted an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 118%, rising from 2% to 20% of total U.S. social ad spend, per Guideline.
“TikTok is still pushing agencies and brands to commit to increased YoY spend through up-front deals, and they are still selling up-front media placements well into 2025,” the first agency executive said. “TikTok has confirmed in writing, although not in contracts, that they will honor refunds for reserved inventory if the app is shut down.”
The first agency, which established its contingency plan in November last year and plans to implement it by the end of January, is advising brands to reinvest 80% of their TikTok ad budget, spanning performance, ecommerce, and brand marketing, to other channels.
For commerce-focused brands, this reserved budget may shift to platforms like Amazon and Pinterest Shopping. Full-funnel marketing dollars are likely to flow to OTT streaming platforms like Hulu and ESPN under Disney’s portfolio, while performance ad dollars will shift toward Instagram Reels.
Already, 5% of the agency’s clients have begun redirecting budgets away from TikTok since last year.
At DigiShopGirl, the contingency plan involves reallocating 90% of TikTok’s performance ad dollars to Reels, YouTube Shorts, and, to a lesser extent, Snapchat, particularly for brands targeting U.S.-based consumers.
tweet
AkhenOsiris
$ZS CEO Chaudhry at Needham Growth Conference on AI Monetization:
Q: At a high level for these Gen Al offerings that you guys have, are we at a significant enough volume with your customers at this point to start thinking about what that associated uplift to the deal value is at this time?
A: So it is still early stage from a volume point of view. We want that traction is in the right direction. When we add our Al based technology to some of our bundles, we're able to get the bundled price up in the 20% range.
So we are not trying to say I need to lead in as a separate Al product. Because Al is making things smarter. The example I gave ZDX for Copilot, customers see distinct value, that's where they get ready to give more.
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Real Estate Fund on Vornado Realty Trust $VNO US
Thesis: Vornado Realty Trust is poised for growth due to its well-located portfolio and improving office market fundamentals in New York City.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/JM4TLAjzMc
tweet
InsideArbitrage
🚨 $LUV Leadership changes at Southwest Airlines
Two longtime executives, Tammy Romo, Chief Financial Officer, and Linda Rutherford, Chief Administration Officer, are retiring on April 1, 2025, after more than three decades with the airline.
- Tammy joined Southwest Airlines in 1991 and became Chief Financial Officer in 2012.
- Linda joined Southwest in 1992 as a Public Relations Coordinator and worked her way up to become Chief Administration Officer.
- Southwest will begin a search for Romo's replacement.
tweet
Startup Archive
21 year old Mark Zuckerberg explains why he isn’t worried about competition from Google
When asked if he was worried about Google eventually competing against Facebook in a 2005 guest lecture at Harvard, a 21 year old Mark Zuckerberg gave the following reply:
“I think that one of the cool things about this time in technology is that individuals are leveraged and able to do way more than they had really ever been able to do before… Instead of worrying about who’s the big player and what Google is going to do next? You can just get a lot of stuff done.”
He points out that Facebook was able to scale to 300,000 users and 400 million page views per day with just 50 people and servers that cost only $100 per month. Meanwhile Google was doing 250 million page views a day with hundreds of thousands of machines and 5,000 employees.
Mark argues:
“The most important thing is to have smart people. As technology becomes more generic and less expensive, the leverage point becomes the people.”
Mark believed that if he could recruit more intelligent people, Google’s resource advantage wouldn’t matter. He also believed Facebook’s small size was an advantage:
“When you’re a small company, then you can be really nimble and get a lot of stuff done, and there’s relatively little bureaucracy. So if you have smart people who can take advantage of that to build cool things, then that’s a [big advantage].”
Video source: @cs50 (2005)
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: Something I have started considering and was wondering what smart people were doing.
Are you thinking of relocating to save on costs & taxes, improve lifestyle and other reasons?
- Yes
- No
- I have just relocated
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: The House is about to vote on the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act.
It would impose sanctions on ICC officials who investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute any protected person of the US and its allies.
Here's a summary of the bill text: https://t.co/lIfDDvYTcT
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: @SenEricSchmitt just introduced legislation that would require agencies to repeal 3 existing regulations before issuing a new one.
Follow here for updates. https://t.co/ruUESU5DLv
tweet
Ahmad Jivraj
Wanna escape the corporate trap?
Learn to invest wisely
Achieving true work/life balance requires escaping the corporate trap.
Here are 5 ways you can escape at any point in your career:
(thread)
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron International Growth Fund on Contemporary Amperex Technology $2319 HK
Thesis: China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd. is a leading dairy company in China expected to gain market share and enhance shareholder returns, benefiting from stabilizing raw milk prices and attractive valuation amid skepticism towards consumer stocks.
(Extract from their Q3 letter)
tweet
Capital Employed
FRESH OFF THE PRESS 🔥
Investor interview #105 with @john_khabbaz from Phoenician Capital.
John discusses his background as an entrepreneur, why he chose public markets over private equity, 2 stocks he's bullish on + much more...
https://t.co/IhmHn5Hl55 https://t.co/sAivdi8GC3
tweet
InsideArbitrage
🚨 $SPHR Sphere Entertainment appoints Robert Langer as EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, effective Jan 13, 2025.
🏰📺 Langer brings 25+ years of leadership experience from Disney, including CFO roles at Disney ABC Television and Disneyland Resort.
💡 Sphere Entertainment, is renowned for its Sphere Las Vegas venue, launched in Sept 2023. It also operates MSG Networks $MSGN featuring regional sports & entertainment networks + MSG+ streaming.
💼 Compensation Highlights for Langer:
Base salary: $1M/year 💵
Annual bonus: 100% of base salary 🎯
Long-term awards: $1.7M+ annually 🏆
$SPHR Sphere Entertainment announces CFO David F. Byrnes is leaving the company and will commence a search for a new CFO.
▶️Mr. Byrnes will continue in his current role for an interim period to ensure a smooth transition.
▶️Byrnes has been with Sphere since December 2023 and previously served as CFO of MSG Entertainment.
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Why "Expensive" Stocks Can Be a Bargain: A Tale of ROIC and EPS Growth 💸
I asked Grok to show why stocks that seem pricey may be great investments if their Returns on Invested Capital (ROIC) and EPS growth rates justify their premium
Here’s how Grok explained it 👇🏽 https://t.co/tJEWuXl7bt
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Polen Capital on Booz Allen Hamilton $BAH US
Thesis: Booz Allen Hamilton is a trusted management and consulting firm for U.S. government clients, expected to deliver low-teens earnings growth and mid-teens returns through its strategic services and recent price weakness.
(Extract from their Q3 letter)
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Opportunity Fund on Tesla $TSLA US
Thesis: Tesla is leveraging its extensive data, advanced computational power, and significant investments in AI to lead in autonomous driving and humanoid robotics markets.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/NdDN3aAwwd
tweet