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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Capital Employed
Essential Sunday reading.
For the latest issue we have the pleasure of interviewing Dave Waters from Alluvial Capital Management to discuss his new venture Tactile Fund LP.
https://t.co/sxHRN0ZwhR https://t.co/dCXPUH9VDi
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AkhenOsiris
RT @EricJhonsa: IMO, there's too much focus on what DeepSeek spent to develop its models (clearly far more than $6M, esp. for R1) and not enough on how their open-sourced advances (which OpenAI, $META, $GOOG, etc. will likely adopt) could make cutting-edge reasoning models far more accessible.
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AkhenOsiris
If DeepSeek had decided to "hand off" their model to a Singapore-based proxy, the reaction in the West would have been interesting to see.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on Amazon $AMZN US
Thesis: Amazon is poised for growth and profitability through retail margin expansion, a rapidly growing advertising business, and the continued dominance of Amazon Web Services (AWS).
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/HVvQAqTG0b
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Representative Warren Davidson has introduced legislation to require the CBO to make publicly available the models used for bill cost estimates.
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/W2nE9P9C4B
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Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi made $3.6M in the stock market this week, per our estimates.
We estimate that she is now worth $270M. https://t.co/VC70DyLCGH
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Startup Archive
Keith Rabois: “I tell founders not to worry about runway. Worry about lift.”
“If you think about lift in a plane context, a company is only valuable if you achieve lift. Runway is a tactic for achieving lift, and you may need to extend the runway so that you have more time to get lift. But unless you’re actually achieving lift with that extra time, it doesn’t help you.”
Keith continues:
“I hate when a founder is like, ‘I want to raise this much money because it gives me two years runway.’… That is a stupid way to think about your fundraising.”
Instead, founders should ask themselves what they need to achieve to achieve lift, and then work backwards from that.
When Keith invests at Khosla Ventures and Founders Fund, they write internal memos about the three key risks to the company. Usually you can’t achieve all three in one financing, so founders should be asking themselves, What’s the most important inflection? And then structure their financing to achieve that.
Keith advises founders that it’s ok to let their runway go very low if they feel like they’re approaching lift:
“A lot of founders get very bad advice like ‘Oh, you need to have this much runway or you won’t be able to raise money from strength.’ That’s nonsense. If you have traction - if you hit a viral coefficient of 1 with three months of runway - almost every VC on the planet knows how to invest in that company, and it will not be a problem.”
Video source: @khoslaventures (2024)
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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🧴 Procter & Gamble $PG
💊 Johnson & Johnson $JNJ
💳 American Express $AXP
🦾 Intuitive Surgical $ISRG
⚙️ Texas Instrument $TXN
📱 Verizon $VZ
🏦 Charles Schwab $SCHW
⚡ GE Vernova $GEV
and more!
https://t.co/Lse7X9FRRn
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Alluvial on Zegona Communications $ZEG LN
Thesis: Zegona Communications is a turnaround investment poised to transform Vodafone Spain into a profitable telecom powerhouse within the next 2-3 years.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/PDmx9kHXA6
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InsideArbitrage
Brightcove $BCOV announced that the HSR Waiting Period for its merger with Bending Spoons expired on January 8, 2025. https://t.co/lfptdXtozK
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Startup Archive
Jensen Huang: “VCs don’t invest in business plans”
When asked for advice on business plans and raising venture capital, Jensen tells the student audience at Stanford:
“VCs don’t invest in business plans… They invest in great people. And so the question is: do they trust you? Your reputation matters. Your history matters.”
He explains that a one of the key reasons Sequoia wrote the initial check into NVIDIA was because he had done great work with Andy Bechtolsheim, the founder of Sun.
Jensen also argues that you need to have a vision that’s “sufficiently large to invest in.” Because of the nature of the businesses VCs invest in, the odds of success are rather low.
“If they need to put in $10 million and the market is only $20 million, they’ll never get that $10 million back with a reasonable return.”
But market size is secondary to people:
“You might have to reinvent yourself over time, and if you want to reinvent yourself, you need to have great people. That’s why great people are so important.”
Video source: @StanfordOnline (2011)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Bell AM on GMO Payment Gateway $4689 JP
Thesis: GMO Payment Gateway is a promising investment opportunity due to its strong growth history and favorable market conditions for cashless payments in Japan.
(Extract from their November letter) https://t.co/VtHkqQxuRd
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InsideArbitrage
Barnes Group Inc. $B announced that its shareholders voted to approve for their acquisition by funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management $APO at the company’s Special Meeting of shareholders . The transaction is expected to close before the end of Q1 2025.
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: We just received text from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene's "Gulf of America" bill.
See below: https://t.co/eM1YCj4v1U
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AkhenOsiris
RT @SaaSletter: 👀 Quick excerpts from MS Thematics “Uncovering Alpha in AI's Rate of Change” (64 pages)
- notable + growing importance of AI to Financial Sector
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Ahmad Jivraj
Interesting stocks to add your research list
Didn’t realize life 360 was a$3.5B company!
Tired of hearing about the same stocks over and over?
Here are 10 small-cap stocks flying under the radar that you probably haven’t heard of before: 👇🏻🧵
1) $TBBB
• Market cap: $3.5B
Tiendas 3B is a rapidly growing discount grocery chain in Mexico, targeting cost-conscious consumers with a no-frills, high-value approach. Its business model focuses on offering essential goods at competitive prices, leveraging streamlined operations and efficient supply chains.
With a strong presence in underserved markets and growing consumer demand for affordable options, Tiendas 3B is well-positioned to capitalize on demographic trends and economic pressures. Its focus on small-format stores allows for expansion in urban and rural areas with lower overhead costs, providing significant room for growth and margin expansion.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Remember how many accounts were calling $CELH a steal & an excellent opportunity most of last year?
$CELH is down -52% in the past year & -73% from its highs 📉
After its large drop, now you rarely see $CELH posts with the same frequency
I wonder why that is 🤷🏽♂️ https://t.co/FeeQrAOGcU
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AkhenOsiris
BREAKING: India to release SuckDeep as the race for commoditized AI heats up
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on MGM Resorts $MGM US
Thesis: MGM Resorts is transforming its business model by prioritizing luxury experiences and global expansion, making it a leader in the hospitality sector.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/DZB2MTTsOC
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: “All past declines look like an opportunity, all future declines look like a risk”
— Morgan Housel 🗣️📚
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App Economy Insights
🔥 Mega Earnings Week Ahead!
What are you watching?
• Monday: $LVMH, $SOFI, $T.
• Tuesday: $BA, $GM, $LMT, $SAP, $SBUX.
• Wednesday: $ASML, $IBM, $LRCX, $META, $MSFT, $NOW, $TMUS, $TSLA.
• Thursday: $AAPL, $APPF, $CMCSA, $INTC, $KLAC, $LUV, $MA, $SNY, $TEAM, $UPS, $V.
• Friday: $ABBV, $CVX.
Visualize all the key insights in our newsletter!
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on Meta (META) $META US
Thesis: Meta is a dominant force in global advertising, leveraging its extensive platform reach, AI advancements, and innovations in wearables to drive long-term growth.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/iNcAVFxahT
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Investment professionals generally advise against market timing, but I advocate for patience in selecting individual stocks, waiting for the market to offer exceptional opportunities with quality compounders
Looking back at 2024, here are 8 examples where my timing paid off🧵
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InsideArbitrage
$RPRX Royalty Pharma shares rise 5% pre-market as the company announces transformative step in its evolution with the acquisition of its external manager and $3 billion share repurchase program - Equals 25% of its current market cap of $11.64 billion!
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InsideArbitrage
Quanterix $QTRX to Acquire Akoya Biosciences $AKYA in an All-Stock Deal for $286.34 Million -
🧬Akoya shareholders will receive 0.318 shares of Quanterix common stock for each share of Akoya common stock they own.
🧬Akoya is valued at about $3.73 per share, representing a premium of 40.23% from the stock’s last close.
🧬The deal is expected to close in Q2 2025.
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InsideArbitrage
RT @business: Mars is borrowing the equivalent of $1 billion through privately-placed bonds, sources say, as it begins to repay bank loans it took out to help buy foodmaker Kellanova https://t.co/Aur9U4jQo2
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Hidden Value Gems
Some stock commentary from Terry Smith's 2025 Letter 🧵👇
New positions: $ATLKY $TXN
Sold: $DGE.L $MKC $AAPL
"Atlas Copco is a Swedish industrial company which makes compressors, vacuum equipment, electrical and pneumatic tools and which has three characteristics which we find attractive:
➡️it outsources much of the manufacturing so making it capital light which enhances returns;
➡️it is highly decentralised with over 600 operating entities which have considerable autonomy in addressing their local market; and
➡️there is a controlling stake held by the Wallenberg family vehicle which should lead to good long-term decision-making since they have been in business for 151 years this year."
1/9
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Evaluating a company solely by its return on invested capital isn’t sufficient.
The best companies to invest in are those operating in markets that are expanding.
This is crucial because growth opportunities amplify the advantages of high returns on invested capital.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Arquitos CM on Liquidia $LQDA US
Thesis: Liquidia is poised to capture at least 50% market share due to its more tolerable drug and patented manufacturing process, significantly increasing its profit potential.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/VgcF05IK4Y
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sports by Q1 2025. Announced Chief AI Officer, Behshad Behzadi, who previously helped spearhead AI initiatives at Google $GOOGL. Brazil legalized sports betting last December and sports book licenses will be awarded this summer – this will be a large sports betting market (think ~$5-6bn GGR in next few years). Asia opportunity in India and Japan. African countries like Nigeria, South Africa, and Ghana. Confident in MLB partnership and should continue to have 3 of the 4 major US sports leagues under their umbrella (Genius has the NFL). NBA contract is off to a great start – a lot left to unlock with the NBA. Advertising continues to be an opportunity – programmatic and paid social – ranks as one of top global advertisers in online betting and casino space. Ads is just one of the many ways to profitably leverage their massive datasets for the benefit of customers.
Anyone looking to ramp on this name should chat with Ryan Sigdahl at Craig Hallum. He’s the best on the street and a class act. - Radnor Capital tweet