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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Investing visuals
How the worlds most valuable company makes its money🍏🫰 https://t.co/5X0iiFob0U
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Senator Richard Blumenthal has proposed legislation to require the President to publish reasons for pardons.
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/LKsjbAupPk
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Platinium AM on Rheinmetall $RHM GR
Thesis: Rheinmetall is poised to benefit from increased European defense spending driven by political pressure and public support, as it is projected to hold 50% of the continent's ammunition capacity by 2026.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/B0gz9ZAzT0
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Capital Employed
RT @capitalemployed: FRESH OFF THE PRESS 🔥
Investor interview #106 with Dave Waters from @alluvialcapital
We discuss his new venture Tactile Fund LP,
diversification, currency debasement, AI,
2 stocks that are in the fund + much more. 👇
https://t.co/sxHRN0ZwhR https://t.co/D0lOOXvtbm
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Capital Employed
Essential Sunday reading.
For the latest issue we have the pleasure of interviewing Dave Waters from Alluvial Capital Management to discuss his new venture Tactile Fund LP.
https://t.co/sxHRN0ZwhR https://t.co/dCXPUH9VDi
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AkhenOsiris
RT @EricJhonsa: IMO, there's too much focus on what DeepSeek spent to develop its models (clearly far more than $6M, esp. for R1) and not enough on how their open-sourced advances (which OpenAI, $META, $GOOG, etc. will likely adopt) could make cutting-edge reasoning models far more accessible.
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AkhenOsiris
If DeepSeek had decided to "hand off" their model to a Singapore-based proxy, the reaction in the West would have been interesting to see.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on Amazon $AMZN US
Thesis: Amazon is poised for growth and profitability through retail margin expansion, a rapidly growing advertising business, and the continued dominance of Amazon Web Services (AWS).
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/HVvQAqTG0b
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Representative Warren Davidson has introduced legislation to require the CBO to make publicly available the models used for bill cost estimates.
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/W2nE9P9C4B
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Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi made $3.6M in the stock market this week, per our estimates.
We estimate that she is now worth $270M. https://t.co/VC70DyLCGH
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Startup Archive
Keith Rabois: “I tell founders not to worry about runway. Worry about lift.”
“If you think about lift in a plane context, a company is only valuable if you achieve lift. Runway is a tactic for achieving lift, and you may need to extend the runway so that you have more time to get lift. But unless you’re actually achieving lift with that extra time, it doesn’t help you.”
Keith continues:
“I hate when a founder is like, ‘I want to raise this much money because it gives me two years runway.’… That is a stupid way to think about your fundraising.”
Instead, founders should ask themselves what they need to achieve to achieve lift, and then work backwards from that.
When Keith invests at Khosla Ventures and Founders Fund, they write internal memos about the three key risks to the company. Usually you can’t achieve all three in one financing, so founders should be asking themselves, What’s the most important inflection? And then structure their financing to achieve that.
Keith advises founders that it’s ok to let their runway go very low if they feel like they’re approaching lift:
“A lot of founders get very bad advice like ‘Oh, you need to have this much runway or you won’t be able to raise money from strength.’ That’s nonsense. If you have traction - if you hit a viral coefficient of 1 with three months of runway - almost every VC on the planet knows how to invest in that company, and it will not be a problem.”
Video source: @khoslaventures (2024)
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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🧴 Procter & Gamble $PG
💊 Johnson & Johnson $JNJ
💳 American Express $AXP
🦾 Intuitive Surgical $ISRG
⚙️ Texas Instrument $TXN
📱 Verizon $VZ
🏦 Charles Schwab $SCHW
⚡ GE Vernova $GEV
and more!
https://t.co/Lse7X9FRRn
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Alluvial on Zegona Communications $ZEG LN
Thesis: Zegona Communications is a turnaround investment poised to transform Vodafone Spain into a profitable telecom powerhouse within the next 2-3 years.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/PDmx9kHXA6
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InsideArbitrage
Brightcove $BCOV announced that the HSR Waiting Period for its merger with Bending Spoons expired on January 8, 2025. https://t.co/lfptdXtozK
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Startup Archive
Jensen Huang: “VCs don’t invest in business plans”
When asked for advice on business plans and raising venture capital, Jensen tells the student audience at Stanford:
“VCs don’t invest in business plans… They invest in great people. And so the question is: do they trust you? Your reputation matters. Your history matters.”
He explains that a one of the key reasons Sequoia wrote the initial check into NVIDIA was because he had done great work with Andy Bechtolsheim, the founder of Sun.
Jensen also argues that you need to have a vision that’s “sufficiently large to invest in.” Because of the nature of the businesses VCs invest in, the odds of success are rather low.
“If they need to put in $10 million and the market is only $20 million, they’ll never get that $10 million back with a reasonable return.”
But market size is secondary to people:
“You might have to reinvent yourself over time, and if you want to reinvent yourself, you need to have great people. That’s why great people are so important.”
Video source: @StanfordOnline (2011)
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
It’s earnings season & here are the stocks I’m following this week 🗓️
Mon 1/27
☀️ $SOFI
🌖 $BRO
Tue 1/28
☀️ $BA $LMT
🌖 $CB $SBUX $SYK
Wed 1/29
☀️ $ASML $ADP $MSCI $NDAQ $DHR
🌖 $TSLA $MSFT $META $LRCX $CP
Thu 1/30
☀️ $MA $TMO $SHW $TSCO
🌖 $AAPL $V $KLAC
Fri 1/31
☀️ $ABBV
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$BF.B stock trades at its lowest multiple in >10 years🥃
2025-2027 EPS CAGR estimate of +7.5% 📊
Assuming $BF.B stock ends 2027 w $2.07E in EPS, here’s its return potential:
22x - 14.4% CAGR
21x - 14.1% CAGR
20x - 11.7% CAGR
19x - 9.2% CAGR
18x - 6.7% CAGR https://t.co/XFfYimGhIu
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Startup Archive
Marc Andreessen: Revolutionary technologies were often viewed as “trivialities” or “jokes”
“If you read history, the great innovations of the past are now well understood as being very important. In almost every case, they were not widely understood as such at the time. In fact, I would assert that they were often actually viewed as trivialities or jokes.”
He gives three examples:
1. The telephone. “When Thomas Edison was first working on the telephone, the assumption of the use case motivating his early work was the idea that telegraph operators needed to be able to talk to each other. It was considered implausible that you would have a system that would let any ordinary person pick up the telephone and talk to another person - that was clearly impossible… Completely missing the larger opportunity.”
2. The Internet. “I have personal experience with this one. The Internet was laughed at. It was heaped with scorn from 1993 to 1997-98. In fact, those of you who were in the industry at the time will remember the New York Times had a reporter on staff named Peter Lewis… I’m convinced he was specifically hired by the editors to just write negative stories about the Internet. It was all he did, and it was always the Internet was never going to be a consumer medium. The Internet is not nearly as big as these people think. Nobody is ever going to trust the internet for e-commerce.”
3. The car. “The car was absolutely viewed as a triviality and a toy when it first emerged. In fact, J.P. Morgan himself refused to invest in Ford Motor Company with the response that it’s just a toy for rich people, which is in fact what it was at the time. If you had one of the first cars, you had to be a rich person. You had to have a driver. You often actually had to also have a stoker with your early cars to keep the engine going. And then you also had to travel with a full-time mechanic because the thing would break down every three miles.”
Marc concludes:
“The great innovations of the present, I believe, are virtually guaranteed to be viewed as trivial and to be viewed as jokes. I think history 50 to 100 years from now will enshroud them in legend. In our time, they won’t be recognized as such. Of course, in the future, when they become legends, our descendants will themselves have their own trivial innovations to laugh at.”
Video source: @MilkenInstitute (2013)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Platinium AM on Galderma $GAL SW
Thesis: Galderma is our largest single holding, showing strong growth in injectable aesthetics and skincare, with the potential for significant earnings boost from its newly approved eczema drug, Nemolizumab, set to launch in 2025.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Ahmad Jivraj
Interesting stocks to add your research list
Didn’t realize life 360 was a$3.5B company!
Tired of hearing about the same stocks over and over?
Here are 10 small-cap stocks flying under the radar that you probably haven’t heard of before: 👇🏻🧵
1) $TBBB
• Market cap: $3.5B
Tiendas 3B is a rapidly growing discount grocery chain in Mexico, targeting cost-conscious consumers with a no-frills, high-value approach. Its business model focuses on offering essential goods at competitive prices, leveraging streamlined operations and efficient supply chains.
With a strong presence in underserved markets and growing consumer demand for affordable options, Tiendas 3B is well-positioned to capitalize on demographic trends and economic pressures. Its focus on small-format stores allows for expansion in urban and rural areas with lower overhead costs, providing significant room for growth and margin expansion.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Remember how many accounts were calling $CELH a steal & an excellent opportunity most of last year?
$CELH is down -52% in the past year & -73% from its highs 📉
After its large drop, now you rarely see $CELH posts with the same frequency
I wonder why that is 🤷🏽♂️ https://t.co/FeeQrAOGcU
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AkhenOsiris
BREAKING: India to release SuckDeep as the race for commoditized AI heats up
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on MGM Resorts $MGM US
Thesis: MGM Resorts is transforming its business model by prioritizing luxury experiences and global expansion, making it a leader in the hospitality sector.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/DZB2MTTsOC
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: “All past declines look like an opportunity, all future declines look like a risk”
— Morgan Housel 🗣️📚
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App Economy Insights
🔥 Mega Earnings Week Ahead!
What are you watching?
• Monday: $LVMH, $SOFI, $T.
• Tuesday: $BA, $GM, $LMT, $SAP, $SBUX.
• Wednesday: $ASML, $IBM, $LRCX, $META, $MSFT, $NOW, $TMUS, $TSLA.
• Thursday: $AAPL, $APPF, $CMCSA, $INTC, $KLAC, $LUV, $MA, $SNY, $TEAM, $UPS, $V.
• Friday: $ABBV, $CVX.
Visualize all the key insights in our newsletter!
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on Meta (META) $META US
Thesis: Meta is a dominant force in global advertising, leveraging its extensive platform reach, AI advancements, and innovations in wearables to drive long-term growth.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/iNcAVFxahT
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Investment professionals generally advise against market timing, but I advocate for patience in selecting individual stocks, waiting for the market to offer exceptional opportunities with quality compounders
Looking back at 2024, here are 8 examples where my timing paid off🧵
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InsideArbitrage
$RPRX Royalty Pharma shares rise 5% pre-market as the company announces transformative step in its evolution with the acquisition of its external manager and $3 billion share repurchase program - Equals 25% of its current market cap of $11.64 billion!
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InsideArbitrage
Quanterix $QTRX to Acquire Akoya Biosciences $AKYA in an All-Stock Deal for $286.34 Million -
🧬Akoya shareholders will receive 0.318 shares of Quanterix common stock for each share of Akoya common stock they own.
🧬Akoya is valued at about $3.73 per share, representing a premium of 40.23% from the stock’s last close.
🧬The deal is expected to close in Q2 2025.
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InsideArbitrage
RT @business: Mars is borrowing the equivalent of $1 billion through privately-placed bonds, sources say, as it begins to repay bank loans it took out to help buy foodmaker Kellanova https://t.co/Aur9U4jQo2
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