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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Stock Analysis Compilation
Focus CM on Kingsgate Consolidated Limited $KCN AU
Thesis: Kingsgate is an undervalued Australian gold mining company poised to generate significant cash flow from its recently reopened Chatree mine in Thailand, forecasting robust production and profitability in the coming years.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Capital Employed
FRESH OFF THE PRESS 🔥
Investor interview #107 with Sam and Joel from Chess Capital.
They provide a fantastic breakdown of two UK small caps there bullish on. 👇
https://t.co/O64YwQslhE https://t.co/vW4zExKZmI
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Patient Capital Management on IAC Inc. $IAC US
Thesis: IAC Inc. is poised for value creation through strategic asset spin-offs and an attractive valuation that highlights untapped potential in its private holdings.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/Hx4xa1cNCS
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
I think it’s time for investors to begin appreciating $AMZN earnings & margin expansion potential
Historically, EPS wasn’t the best way to value $AMZN, but now it trades for slightly less than ~40x TTM (FY 24 EPS of $5.15), likely growing at ~20% a year for the next few years 💸
Amazon $AMZN Q4 2024 Report 🗓️
✅ Revenues: $187.8B (+10% YoY)
✅ Operating Income: $21.2B (+60% YoY)
✅ Net Income: $20.0B (+88% YoY)
☁️ AWS Revenue: $28.7B (+19% YoY)
💸 Ads Revenue: $17.3B (+18% YoY) https://t.co/JddBGLylqZ
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Amazon $AMZN Q4 2024 Report 🗓️
✅ Revenues: $187.8B (+10% YoY)
✅ Operating Income: $21.2B (+60% YoY)
✅ Net Income: $20.0B (+88% YoY)
☁️ AWS Revenue: $28.7B (+19% YoY)
💸 Ads Revenue: $17.3B (+18% YoY) https://t.co/JddBGLylqZ
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Heartland Value Fund on Delek US Holdings, Inc. $DK US
Thesis: Delek US Holdings, Inc. is substantially undervalued at $17 with an estimated worth of $31 per share, driven by potential recovery in diesel demand and strategic management actions.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/R9EGsFnnR6
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Aristotle Core Equity on GE Aerospace $GE US
Thesis: GE Aerospace is poised for strong growth in its commercial engine business, aiming for $10 billion in annual operating profit by 2028 and significant returns to shareholders.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/gvoUWZyBeG
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Startup Archive
Elon Musk: “Be useful… Stuff doesn’t need to change the world to be good.”
Sam Altman asks Elon what he would work on today if he was 22 and looking to have a big impact.
Elon responds:
“First of all, I think if somebody is doing something that is useful to the rest of society, I think that’s a good thing… Stuff doesn’t need to change the world to be good.”
In college, Elon thought the five most important things to work on were making life multi-planetary, accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, the internet, genetics, and AI. But he did not expect to be involved in all of those things.
“At the time in college, I thought helping with electrification of cars was how I would start out. And then I put [pursuing a PhD at Stanford] on hold to start an Internet company in 1995 because there does seem to be a time for particular technologies… and I wasn’t entirely certain the technology I’d be working on [in the PhD program] would actually succeed. You can get a doctorate on many things that ultimately do not have a practical bearing on the world. I really was just trying to be useful. That’s the optimization. What can I do that would actually be useful?”
When Sam asks what the best way for someone to be useful is, Elon responds:
“Whatever the thing is that you’re trying to create—what would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect? So that’s why I think something that makes a big difference but affects a small or moderate number of people is great. As is something that makes even a small difference but affects a vast number of people… The area under the curve would actually be roughly similar for those two things.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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InsideArbitrage
Globus Medical $GMED Acquires Nevro $NVRO in an All-Cash Transaction for $250 Million :
⚕️As per the terms of the agreement, Globus Medical will acquire all shares of Nevro for $5.85 per share, representing a 16.53% premium from the stock’s last close.
⚕️The completion of the transaction is expected in the late second quarter of 2025.
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Tim Burchett just said:
"I agree with @AOC. Members of Congress should not be allowed to trade individual stocks."
We have not seen Burchett or AOC buy any stocks while in Congress.
Neither of them have any individual stocks in their portfolios. https://t.co/dyJtanbiZK
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InsideArbitrage
RT @Reuters: Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida met with his Honda counterpart Toshihiro Mibe to tell him he wants to scrap their memorandum of understanding to discuss a possible merger, one person with knowledge of the matter said https://t.co/QB5KzWD8Ec
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InsideArbitrage
Staffing 360 $STAF held a special meeting of stockholders on February 3, 2025 -
The meeting was held to vote on two proposals: approving the Planned Merger with Atlantic International $ATLN and approving the option to adjourn the meeting.
The majority approved the Adjournment Proposal, and the meeting was then adjourned to February 10, 2025.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Since hitting my target accumulation price, shares of MercadoLibre $MELI have rallied +15%
This is a bit unfortunate as I would’ve preferred for $MELI stock to continue declining & reach an even lower level so I could add another tranche of shares https://t.co/NggebbFgsC
$MELI traded below my target accumulation price of $1,700 for less than 48 hours 🎯 https://t.co/QUeCkbQz0z
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Aoris on Sherwin-Williams $SHW US
Thesis: Sherwin-Williams is the world's largest paint and coatings company with a dominant market share in the US professional painters segment and exclusive supply agreements with major home builders.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/abGbRu8lDk
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
After properly assessing the company’s overvaluation, here’s a brief update on $MANH
Using 2027 EPS estimate of $5.85:
45x P/E: $263.25💵 … ~14.5% CAGR
40x P/E: $234.00💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
35x P/E: $204.75💵 … ~1.0% CAGR
I’d have to assume >40x given today’s estimates which leaves me with no margin of safety
While it is an excellent business, I’d likely get more interested in $MANH closer to $170💵 where I could reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming a 35x multiple
10 months ago I shared my analysis on $MANH suggesting it was overvalued at $257💵
I suggested revisiting the stock at $179💵
Despite a strong run, $MANH just plummeted -23% post-Q4 earnings 📉
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price”
#stocks #investing
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InsideArbitrage
Veritas Is Said in Talks to Acquire Data Firm Dun & Bradstreet $DNB - Bloomberg
📊The private equity firm is talking to banks about financing a potential take-private of the Jacksonville, Florida-based company.
📊The deal under discussion would value Dun & Bradstreet at or around its current market capitalization of about $5.4 billion.
📊Options that Dun & Bradstreet is considering also include separating its finance and risk unit from the sales and marketing business. It’s talking to potential strategic buyers for those assets.
Dun & Bradstreet $DNB confirmed that it has received inbound interest from third parties and has retained Bank of America $BAC to assist with those inquiries.
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App Economy Insights
$GOOG $NFLX YouTube ads alone outpaced Netflix’s total revenue in Q4.
But here’s the real twist:
👉 When you factor in Subscriptions (TV, Premium, Music, NFL Sunday Ticket), YouTube’s total revenue is ~1.5x Netflix’s. 👀🍿
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App Economy Insights
$AMZN Amazon Q4 FY24:
• Revenue +10% Y/Y to $187.8B ($0.5B beat).
• Operating margin 11% (+4pp Y/Y).
• FCF $38B TTM.
• Q1 Guidance: ~$153B ($5B miss).
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +19% Y/Y to $28.8B.
• Operating margin 37% (+7pp Y/Y). https://t.co/o8X8UXRGQ8
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Hidden Value Gems
Surprised by the third most popular answer 🙂
If you use ChatGPT to summarise earning calls of your portfolio companies (instead of listening/reading transcripts), you probably hold too many stocks. Do you agree?
- Yes
- No
- I am ChatGPT/DeepSeek etc
- I dont understand the Q
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App Economy Insights
$GOOG Google Cloud visualized https://t.co/SiAwMhuVII
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Novo Nordisk $NVO Reports a Strong Q4✅
✅Rev*: $12.26B vs $11.34B (est) | +28% YoY
✅EPS*: $0.91 vs $0.83 (est) | +28% YoY
*In USD
**Full Year results below (in DKK) 👇🏽 https://t.co/HpH9orVsHK
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Representative Andy Ogles has proposed legislation to use USAID funding to fund deportations.
Follow here for updates. https://t.co/pgfTy63Kio
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InsideArbitrage
Online Payments Firm Paysafe $PSFE Weighs Sale After Getting Takeover Interest - Bloomberg
💰Paysafe is working with a financial adviser as it explores options.
💰Paysafe is also studying the potential disposal of non-core assets that could take place before the sale of the company.
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $OLN has just reported purchasing $203K of the company's stock, his first insider purchase since taking over as CEO last March.
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Hidden Value Gems
Makes me think whether #Kering really has a moat or just sells expensive (high-margin) stuff with a hit-or-miss approach.
Was on my Luxury Goods watchlist, but the difference with the ones like Richemont, LVMH and Hermes is huge. https://t.co/SWbPqQM2UJ
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InsideArbitrage
RT @business: Nissan is seeking out a new partner as it prepares to end negotiations to form a joint holding company with Honda, people familiar with the matter said. https://t.co/xB23Vk3Jro
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Capital Employed
Another batch of excellent Q4 2024 letters just added.
Including excellent letters from...
@Whit_Huguley
@dsmoak98
@HorizonKinetics
108 letters in total now.
This is a treasure trove of insights and potential ideas… 👇
https://t.co/Dndl7wcMwK https://t.co/7mQM7SnLeq
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $MBX has just reported purchasing $535K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 6%.
This is the first insider trade he has reported since the company had its IPO last September.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Another reputable & successful hedge fund just made one of their biggest adds to their holdings — a stock I suggested was attractive 💸
The stock?
$TMO 🔬
As of the latest 13F filing, William Von Mueffling increased Cantillon’s $TMO position by ~16% https://t.co/DJ50oVx6SZ
Two months ago I stated:
“I’d be more interested in $TMO closer to $500💵 (8% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a margin of safety”
$TMO traded at my target price for less than 24 hours 📈 https://t.co/r2awaMkY7L
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𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet