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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
InsideArbitrage
Outsourcing Firm Conduent $CNDT Fields Buyout Interest - Reuters
✴️Conduent is exploring a sale after receiving acquisition interest.
✴️Conduent is working with a financial adviser on its talks with potential acquirers, which include private equity firms.
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New Insider Purchase
A director of $LFUS has just reported purchasing $4.1M of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 32%.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over 4 years.
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Quiver Quantitative
We sent out a notification on Pelosi's purchase of Tempus AI call options in January.
$TEM has now risen 115% since her trade. https://t.co/Ghjrs9B9QZ
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: $GOOG Google Cloud visualized https://t.co/SiAwMhuVII
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @Chichuel07: @DimitryNakhla Bro we need a subscription plan 😂.
Jokes aside, your account is a gold mine👍
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Rogue Funds on ASP Isotopes $ASPI US
Thesis: ASP Isotopes is poised for significant market impact with its undervalued medical isotope business, strong margins, and unique production capabilities in Silicon-28.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/k45Zy3OeMM
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @skhetpal: 90% of US banks use FICO scores to decide who gets a loan.
That's helped the stock rise over 2,000% in the past 10 years.
Here’s how FICO built a near-monopoly: https://t.co/f1kTAF5RTn
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InsideArbitrage
The InsideArbitrage Friday Wrap is out!
"Spencer Rascoff to Lead Match Group Turnaround "
👉Full Article link in the final tweet.
🧵1/10 https://t.co/ZSe8LUE7ZS
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Stock Analysis Compilation
O'Keefe Stevens on Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) $DFIN US
Thesis: Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) is a leading provider of compliance and regulatory solutions with a strong focus on recurring revenue growth and robust market positioning, despite facing short-term challenges.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Startup Archive
Peter Thiel on the biggest lesson he learned in 10+ years of venture capital
Thiel explains how his biggest miss as a VC (not doing Facebook’s full Series B) led to a key insight:
“Once something works, people often underestimate it. And when things aren’t working, they underestimate how much trouble they’re in.”
When he backtested Founders Fund’s portfolio, he found that every time a company had a big up-round led by a smart investor, it was always a good idea to do your pro rata. And it was almost always a bad idea in a down- or flat-round.
In fact, the steeper the up-round, the cheaper it was.
His biggest miss of the last decade was not doing the full Series B at Facebook. It was a 12x up-round in eight months.
“It was the steepest up-round in that amount of time in any company we’ve been involved in. And in retrospect, that was perhaps also the cheapest… And I think one of the reasons it was so underpriced was that… even the people on the inside often underestimate how much things have changed… You have these subtle but very important points where somehow the leverage and dynamics shift very powerfully and they tend to get very underestimated.”
Video source: @twistartups @jason (2015)
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Quiver Quantitative
Wow.
Back in November, we reported extensively on a suspicious purchase of Viasat stock by a member of Congress.
$VSAT is now up 53% since our reports.
It's up another 11% today after releasing earnings.
Look at this: https://t.co/WtWIuBTSOr
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Occasionally, your window of opportunity to buy shares of excellent stocks is very small ⌛️
Being prepared & having price targets ready is key. Here are a few examples from my past suggestions:
$MELI <$1700<48<$255<48<$500<24<$82 | 1 week & + 10% since📈
___
you can find these posts below 🧵
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Hidden Value Gems
Just received my copy of the @_inpractise book. Exciting reading ahead! https://t.co/K5o7l3USg0
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InsideArbitrage
Immedica Pharma completed the tender offer to purchase all outstanding shares of common stock of Marinus Pharmaceuticals $MRNS for $0.55 per share.
Immedica expects to complete the acquisition of Marinus on February 11, 2025.
Immedica Pharma to Acquire Marinus Pharmaceuticals $MRNS in Cash Deal Worth $151 Million -
🧬Immedica, through a subsidiary, will initiate a tender offer to acquire all the outstanding shares of Marinus common stock for a cash purchase price of $0.55 per share.
🧬The offer represents a premium of 48.65% from the stock’s last close.
🧬The deal is expected to close in Q1 2025.
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Startup Archive
RT @BoredElonMusk: But number go up ⬆️ I don’t understand why this didn’t succeed.
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke explains Goodhart’s law and why he doesn’t like KPIs or OKRs
“Goodhart’s law is real. The moment a metric becomes a goal, it’s no longer a useful metric… No metric by itself is a complete heuristic for a complex business. There’s a million different tensions in a company, and you can’t keep all of them in harmony by optimizing for one thing.”
For this reason, Shopify doesn’t use KPIs or OKRs. But as Tobi explains, this doesn’t mean they don’t value data and metrics.
“We are extremely data informed. We have invested enormous amounts of money and time into systems that give us basically everything at our fingertips… But what Shopify attempts to do is just not over-fit for what’s quantifiable.”
People love optimizing for highly-quantifiable things because there’s immediate gratification that comes from seeing a number go up. But Tobi thinks that the most important aspects of a product are rarely quantifiable:
“The overlap of the most valuable things you can do with a product and the things that happen to be fully quantifiable are like maybe 20%. Which leaves 80% of a value space unaddressable by the people who only look at quantifiable things.”
He continues:
“Shopify is comfortable with unquantifiable things like taste, quality, passion, love, hate… The sort of deep satisfaction that a craftsperson feels when they’ve done a job well is actually a better proxy if you allow it to be.”
They then have robust analytics systems that tell the company if something’s wrong or a new rollout breaks something.
“We think about it as a cockpit for a pilot. The decisions are still made by pilots, and we think this leads to better results… I think there needs to be more acceptance in business of unquantifiable things… And then metrics take a support function.”
Video source: @lennysan (2025)
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
“Peloton sales surge..”
“Peloton soared 350% & here’s why the stock will keep rising..”
Since these headlines? -95% 📉
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$PTON is a prime example why investors should look beyond sensational headlines & focus on businesses that exhibit quality fundamental characteristics 💵 https://t.co/RxWPwRJsls
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Rowan Street on Shopify $SHOP US
Thesis: Shopify is expected to achieve revenue and gross profit growth exceeding 20% annually over the next two years, with strong operational cash flow, offering the potential for respectable double-digit annual returns despite high valuation multiples.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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App Economy Insights
Choose your fighter
$AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $GOOG https://t.co/MkQdjFHdi5
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth surpassed $225B, thanks in part to a bold decision:
He. Didn’t. Sell.
In 2005, Viacom offered Mark $750M for FB
Later that year Yahoo offered $1B
He refused both offers
Today, $META is worth $1.81T💰 https://t.co/d1MOhMCq06
$META has now traded green for 14 consecutive days, the longest winning streak in its history and one of the greatest stretches of all-time! https://t.co/vOKQrWWjKK
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A crucial investing insight: don’t confuse stock price volatility with fundamental business changes 🧘🏽♂️
As Pulak Prasad eloquently notes in “What I Learned About Investing From Darwin,” it’s the fundamentals that ultimately drive long-term success 🎯 https://t.co/Zsz59EfQOM
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InsideArbitrage
$AME AMETEK announces 👇👇
🔸A new $1.25 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization that replaces the prior $1 billion plan (May 2022) of which $590 million remain
🔸11% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.31 from $0.28 per share
🔸Appoints Isabel S. Wells as Vice President, Information Technology and Chief Information Officer
🔸Appoints William P. Callahan Vice President and General Manager, Aerospace & Defense Division
🔸 Recent Q4 2024 results - missed both revenue (by $58.16M) and EPS (by $0.17) estimates
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Who said big tobacco is dead? Philip Morris $PM just reported 52.9% YoY growth in ZYNs 📈
✅Rev: $9.71B vs $9.44B (est) | +7% YoY
✅EPS: $1.55 vs $1.50 (est) | +14% YoY https://t.co/kPYzSnBW0D
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Startup Archive
RT @karrisaarinen: It's all about the care. Someone needs to care to make something good.
You cannot set goals or measure it. You need to hire people who care and give them the time and space to care.
Love that more CEOs, including public company CEOs talk about this! @tobi
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke: It’s impossible to make great products if you don’t give a sh*t
“Every product in the world, at the end of the day, is simply a reflection of how much the people who created it gave a sh*t… It is not possible to make great products if the people who work on it do not give a sh*t about the product.”
Tobi continues:
“I actually think this is a very important role for product leaders: To make sure that the team gives a sh*it… The product leader has to give a sh*t. Do not engage in work on a product that you don’t care about.”
Tobi believes anyone who wants to build great products has two roles:
1. “You have to understand the thing that’s being done better than everyone else.”
2. “You’ve got to be exothermically infectious with actually caring about this thing because just that one thing alone will make a 10x better product. It’s crazy how much of a change this makes.”
Video source: @lennysan (2025)
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Investing visuals
Amazon $AMZN had a decent quarter but a relatively weak guide. Here's a full breakdown of $AMZN after its Q4 2024 results👇 https://t.co/KoTjKjVTtJ
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Quiver Quantitative
We recently released a dashboard that tracks government payments to publicly traded companies.
You can now get alerts on large payments through our app.
https://t.co/056O12gsUA
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InsideArbitrage
Turn/River Capital To Take SolarWinds $SWI Private for $4.4 Billion -
▫️SolarWinds will be acquired by Turn/River Capital in an all-cash transaction for $18.50 per share, representing a premium of 23.09% from the stock’s last close.
▫️The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025.
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InsideArbitrage
$PIPR announces a $150 million (~3% of its current market cap) share repurchase program following the recent special dividend announcement
Muted Share Repurchase Activity: No repurchases in 2023 & 2024 - Instead, has been diluting its shares outstanding by 6% over the last 2 years
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Startup Archive
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke: It’s impossible to make great products if you don’t give a sh*t
“Every product in the world, at the end of the day, is simply a reflection of how much the people who created it gave a sh*t… It is not possible to make great products if the people who work on it do not give a sh*t about the product.”
Tobi continues:
“I actually think this is a very important role for product leaders: To make sure that the team gives a sh*it… The product leader has to give a sh*t. Do not engage in work on a product that you don’t care about.”
Tobi believes anyone who wants to build great products has two roles:
1. “You have to understand the thing that’s being done better than everyone else.”
2. “You’ve got to be exothermically infectious with actually caring about this thing because just that one thing alone will make a 10x better product. It’s crazy how much of a change this makes.”
Video source: @lennysan (2025)
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 2 years ago, when $ELF traded at $104, I predicted a potential 30-40% downturn 📉
Since then, the stock trades -37% lower 🎯 https://t.co/ttf7scPOm4
On June 6, 2023 I stated: “I wouldn’t be surprised to see $ELF trade 30-40% lower if the fundamentals don’t substantially improve”
$ELF is now down -16% since
“In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine. But in the long run, it is a weighing machine” — Ben Graham 🗣️ https://t.co/CZcMcvJpa9
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InsideArbitrage
Alumis $ALMS to Acquire Acelyrin $SLRN in an All-Stock Deal :
💊Under the terms of the agreement, Acelyrin stockholders will receive 0.4274 shares of Alumis common stock for each share of Acelyrin common stock owned. The deal is valued at $2.82 per share, representing a 48.42% premium from the stock’s last close.
💊The transaction is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2025. Post completion, Alumis stockholders will own about 55% of the combined company, while Acelyrin stockholders will hold about 45%.
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