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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: 💳 Klarna IPO $KLAR
I spent hours reviewing the F-1 so you don't have to.
https://t.co/TWiuSIHqVL
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is concerning:
41.8% of US homeowners who sought to refinance their mortgages have received an application rejection, the highest share in over 12 years.
The percentage has QUADRUPLED since October 2023, according to the NY Fed.
Many Americans are seeking to refinance to tap into their recently accumulated housing equity.
This would help to cover rising costs of living and other debt expenses.
Lack of refinancing could at some point force people to sell their homes.
Something must give.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Global Discovery Strategy on Novonesis $NSISB DC
Thesis: Novonesis is a global biosolutions powerhouse formed from the merger of Novozym and Chr Hansen, focused on sustainable innovations in consumer products and industrial processes, with strong growth potential driven by effective commercialization and cost synergies.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Finding Compounders
Great read
Capital Cycle Analysis helps to identify investments with high and sustainable returns https://t.co/85vLuoiKpU
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The Kobeissi Letter
US consumers are pulling back spending on dining out:
Restaurant and bar retail sales dropped -1.5% month-over-month in February, the biggest decline in 2 years.
This marks the second monthly decrease out of the last three.
As a result, restaurant sales have plummeted by an -8.5% annual rate over the last 3 months, the most since Q1 2022 when GDP contracted by -1.0%.
This is a sharp decline from the high-single-digit growth seen in Q3 2024.
This comes as food inflation has been a major issue with food away from home prices rising ~30% over the last 5 years.
Dining out is officially a luxury.
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Alvin
About the lock screen blur being buggy on One UI 7, here's what I meant.
Look at the difference between the blur effects on my Galaxy S25 Ultra (One UI 7) and my S24 Ultra (One UI 6.1).
The S24U looked MILES better. That blur on the S25U is messy. https://t.co/Pe9Ks9tCl3
One UI 7 is a mess.
Not because it is bad. In fact, it is MY FAVOURITE smartphone OS/Android skin so far.
I just think it is Samsung's most chaotic OS upgrade ever.
Why?
✅ Super long delays. It will be released to older Samsung phones 6 MONTHS after other brands started their rollout phases.
✅ Some UI elements on the *stable* Galaxy S25 Series builds are so embarrassingly unpolished (the blur effects when trying to open an app using the lock screen shortcuts, the charging animations, etc.)
✅ They are still actively refining and changing up some UI elements on the Beta versions for the older Samsung phones instead of pushing them first to the S25 Series
✅ Now Bar on Samsung phones with an optical under-screen fingerprint scanner is so horribly out of place, making them unappealing to look at.
And more...
Honestly, Samsung should really take care of their consistency and readiness with One UI 8, because this is messy.
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Finding Compounders
When Entry Multiples Don’t Matter
Great piece by Andreessen Horowitz https://t.co/9C24jfK4mg
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App Economy Insights
Bloomberg reveals $GRAB has begun due diligence to acquire rival GoTo in a potential $7B+ deal.
A merger would control 60-70% of South-East Asia’s on-demand market. https://t.co/RUo8xNgS2g
$GRAB Grab Q4 FY24:
💰 GMV +20% Y/Y to $5.0B.
🏍️ Group MTUs +17% Y/Y to 44M.
• Revenue +17% to $764M ($6M beat).
• Adj. EBITDA +173% to $97M ($3M beat).
• FY25 Revenue +21% to $3.37B ($0.3B miss). https://t.co/1N2h5WyFz3
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: General Motors, $GM, has selected Nvidia, $NVDA, to build its self-driving car fleet. https://t.co/o7r9sKOHHu
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App Economy Insights
Google to acquire Wiz for $32B.
💰 $GOOG 's biggest deal ever.
👀 Wiz turned down $23B last year.
🔹Unified security across all major clouds.
🔹AI-powered threat detection & response.
🔹Integration with Google Security & Mandiant. https://t.co/ESLagCdYjK
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Quiver Quantitative
Tesla short sellers have made $16B this year, per The Financial Times.
Marjorie Taylor Greene is now down 42% on her January purchase. https://t.co/bSKBaOgQh4
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures surge as much as +100 points after February CPI inflation falls to 2.8%, lower than expected.
The S&P 500 is now up +130 points since our "short squeeze" call below. https://t.co/BIJ3911IBr
The case for a SHORT SQUEEZE:
Since February 19th, the S&P 500 has erased -$5 TRILLION in its most one-sided move since the 2022 bear market.
Total PUT option volumes have surged to a record 30+ MILLION contracts over the last 5 days.
Is a short squeeze coming?
(a thread) https://t.co/AutLiKW7Yh
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AkhenOsiris
WSJ:
Many in the business community have abandoned efforts to get the president to reverse course on trade, instead pleading with the White House for clarity on his approach, the people said.
Trump’s aggressive approach to tariffs has unnerved some Trump administration economic officials, including staff on the National Economic Council, who are concerned that tariffs and uncertainty over trade policy are tanking the stock market and fueling price increases on everything from energy to construction materials, people familiar with the matter said.
The president’s economic advisers have warned him that tariffs could hurt the market and economic growth, but he has largely been undeterred, the people said.
Lutnick has at times not fully looped in some of the president’s other economic advisers, according to people familiar with the matter, including Hassett, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and officials at the Council of Economic Advisers.
In one instance last week, Lutnick went on Fox News and announced that Canada and Mexico could soon strike a deal with the U.S. to avoid some of the 25% tariffs Trump had imposed over fentanyl trafficking. That surprised Greer and CEA staff, leaving them rushing to come up with a solution, eventually persuading Trump to grant a one-month pause on tariffs for goods that comply with a U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, according to people familiar with the matter.
Bessent has made clear to members of Trump’s team that he wants to be a principal voice on economic policy across the administration, according to people familiar with the matter.
This time, he is still interested in the markets, but is less inclined to abandon his tariff plans, though he has delayed the implementation of some duties, an administration official said.
Trump’s first-term National Economic Council director, Gary Cohn, and others at times opposed the president’s tariff proposals. This time, most of Trump’s current advisers aren’t trying to dissuade him from invoking tariffs, officials said. Instead, they are advocating for more targeted tariffs with exemptions for key sectors.
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Alvin
First X Post with the Xiaomi 15 Ultra! 👀 https://t.co/kR2Fn23iQS
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Alvin
Meet the Xiaomi 15 Ultra in this beautiful Silver Chrome colourway.
What a gorgeous looking phone. https://t.co/qCspKAG4Ah
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App Economy Insights
Google just dropped its biggest bag ever.
A $32B move to dominate cloud security.
Nearly as much as its 10 largest deals—combined. https://t.co/cEyUTLaejr
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The Kobeissi Letter
Just 63% of Americans are currently able to come up with $2,000 in the event of an unexpected need, the lowest in at least 10 years.
This percentage has declined by 9 points since February 2020, according to the NY Fed.
This comes as household debt hits record highs with pandemic-era savings have been depleted.
$2.3 trillion of accumulated savings have been spent by Americans since mid-2021.
At the same time, US household debt has risen to a record $18.0 trillion.
All while core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 46 straight months.
US consumers are struggling.
The collapse of US consumers:
Unemployment expectations in the US are now ABOVE 2020 levels and at their highest since 2008.
In 2024, a poll showed that a whopping 56% of Americans thought the US was in a recession.
Is the US set to enter a recession?
(a thread) https://t.co/iQhcQkRGUv
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The Kobeissi Letter
How often do market corrections lead to a recession in the US?
There have been 60 S&P 500 corrections including the most recent one, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
Historically, in 12% of corrections, a recession had already begun in the previous 12 months.
32% of the time a recession took place within the next 12 months.
In 56% of corrections, the US avoided an economic downturn within the next 12 months.
In other words, market corrections are only accompanied by a recession ~44% of the time.
Can we avoid a recession this time?
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Lindsell Train UK Equity Fund on Intertek $ITRK LN
Thesis: Intertek is a leading global testing and assurance company poised to benefit from increasing regulatory demands and the green transition, supported by high barriers to entry and a growing focus on quality assurance.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: A federal judge has ruled that actions taken by Elon Musk and DOGE to close USAID were unconstitutional.
Has ordered DOGE reinstate almost all of USAID's functionality. https://t.co/2AOOrroQVI
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Alvin
One UI 7 is a mess.
Not because it is bad. In fact, it is MY FAVOURITE smartphone OS/Android skin so far.
I just think it is Samsung's most chaotic OS upgrade ever.
Why?
✅ Super long delays. It will be released to older Samsung phones 6 MONTHS after other brands started their rollout phases.
✅ Some UI elements on the *stable* Galaxy S25 Series builds are so embarrassingly unpolished (the blur effects when trying to open an app using the lock screen shortcuts, the charging animations, etc.)
✅ They are still actively refining and changing up some UI elements on the Beta versions for the older Samsung phones instead of pushing them first to the S25 Series
✅ Now Bar on Samsung phones with an optical under-screen fingerprint scanner is so horribly out of place, making them unappealing to look at.
And more...
Honestly, Samsung should really take care of their consistency and readiness with One UI 8, because this is messy.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harris Global Concentrated Strategy on Sysco Corporation $SYY US
Thesis: Sysco Corporation is a high-quality foodservice distribution company benefiting from scale advantages, poised for long-term growth despite recent slowdowns in independent restaurant sales.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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The Investing for Beginners Podcast
Learning to analyze companies is like weight-lifting.
You have to put in the reps.
Once you do, you will start to develop better systems and move through the process quicker.
Here are 5 quick steps to get started down the path. 🧵⬇️ https://t.co/xagkf1oBdQ
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Alvin
Using the Sony Bravia Theatre U is so satisfying.
This neckband sounds awesome and it can be very useful for those who like to watch movies or play music but don't want to use wireless earbuds.
I would recommend using this at home, not in public. That's because people around you can hear what you're listening to, especially if they stand close to you.
I just tried it yesterday, and it does feel great and comfortable to wear!
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Alvin
Let me make this one clear for you guys.
I don't "manipulate" any of my smartphone camera tests by adjusting the exposure, colour & saturation, using filters or photographic styles, and so on.
This applies to:
1. Camera comparison between two or more phones
2. Full Review
3. When I am making a consideration for concluding how good the phone's camera is
When comparing between phones, I always use the same or equivalent modes between them just to make things fair.
But when randomly sharing photo samples from a phone, I might adjust the exposure, use some kind of filters or styles, and do some other adjustments just to show people how to take advantage of the phone's full potential.
That's because I know, most people want to take good photos using the phone that they have.
Besides, no phone is perfect. It is hard to choose only one phone as the best cameraphone right now. It depends on so many factors.
What looks good to me might not suit your preferences. What looks good to you might not suit my preferences.
That's the beauty of photography, not limited to smartphone photography.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Bitcoin surges above $84,000 as U.S. CPI inflation falls more than expected. https://t.co/aRAvNQiQOu
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: February CPI inflation FALLS to 2.8%, below expectations of 2.9%.
Core CPI inflation FALLS to 3.1%, below expectations of 3.2%.
This marks the first decline in both Headline and Core CPI since July 2024.
Inflation is cooling down in the US.
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Finding Compounders
In 2007 , David Einhorn announced Lehman as a short at the Value Investors Conference
Here is his communication with Erin Callan , the then CFO at Lehman. https://t.co/El5mNNVZ0O
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Finding Compounders
Warren Buffett’s letter to National Indemnity regarding GEICO.
He goes into GEICO’s competitive advantage and the issues GEICO was facing. https://t.co/bQV0lMllmm
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Alvin
After using the global Xiaomi 14 Ultra variant, I'm switching to the Chinese Xiaomi 15 Ultra variant.
I just want the best experience of using this phone.
Not only that it uses a 6000 mAh battery (vs 5410 mAh global), Chinese HyperOS is just better. https://t.co/AsIlE2RdPj
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