4
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Nine Republicans just voted with House Democrats to allow proxy voting by new parents in Congress.
Speaker Mike Johnson just announced that the House isn't holding any more votes this week: https://t.co/F2F1hw1nAR
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
Germany just sent 5,000 troops to be stationed on NATO's eastern flank, in Lithuania.
This is its first permanent foreign troop deployment since World War II.
Last year, we noticed a US politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
The stock is now up 151% since: https://t.co/1yeGq69GOe
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed dropped -10% year-over-year last week to the lowest in 4 years.
Over the last 3 years, job postings have declined -33%.
As a result, available vacancies are just 8% above pre-pandemic levels.
Additionally, NEW job postings have dropped -40% since February 2022 to near the lowest since December 2020.
Data provided by Indeed has been a leading indicator for the BLS-provided job openings data, suggesting more weakness ahead.
The labor market is deteriorating.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Q1 2025 was a tough quarter for US stocks:
The S&P 500 underperformed global stocks by 9.6 percentage points in Q1, the biggest quarterly margin since 2009.
The S&P 500 dropped -4.6% in Q1 2025, the most since Q2 2022.
At the same time, the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US gained +5.0%.
This is a sharp reversal from Q4 2024 when the S&P 500 outperformed global stocks by 10 percentage points, the most since 2008.
Market sentiment has rapidly shifted as recession concerns have surged.
Brace for another volatile quarter.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
WOW.
The Atlanta Fed has just revised their Q1 2025 GDP estimate lower AGAIN, to -3.7%.
Adjusting for gold imports and exports, the Atlanta Fed now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Just 2 months ago, they saw GDP growing by +3.8% in the same period.
The revision was due to recent economic data which has shown a slowdown in spending.
Is the Atlanta Fed calling for a recession?
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Bond investors are worried:
The 2-year breakeven inflation rate has jumped to 3.27%, the highest since the March 2023 Banking Crisis.
In other words, the market expects inflation to exceed 3.0% over the next 2 years.
The 2-year inflation breakeven has more than DOUBLED since the "Fed pivot" of September 2024.
This all comes as long-term inflation expectations have risen to 4.1%, the highest since 1993.
Americans’ 1-year inflation expectations have surged from 2.6% to 5.0% in under 3 months, reaching their highest level since November 2022.
A recession is becoming more likely.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
tweet
App Economy Insights
RT @VoronoiApp: March's Most Popular Creator ✏️
@EconomyApp breaks down the finances of the world's biggest companies—including the Magnificent Seven—through stunning visuals 🖥️
Explore all their work on Voronoi: https://t.co/nbryO7VNB6 https://t.co/Xtsp4Wzpde
tweet
Investing visuals
$GOOGL is down 🔻25% since its February peak.
Meanwhile:
🔹Cloud is growing 30%
🔹Free cash flow is up 214%
🔹Has $73 Bln cash (pre-Wiz acquisition) https://t.co/qrEWb3sHJz
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
RT @JP_Money_95630: @KobeissiLetter Trade the Trend!
@KobeissiLetter @TKL_Adam Appreciate your info and analysis!
It's helpful when making my setups. https://t.co/jri0HAuBjs
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
Something to keep an eye on:
The Senate will vote later today on a resolution to reverse Trump's tariffs on Canada.
It will be DOA in the House, but I'm hearing that some Republican Senators may vote for it.
tweet
Capital Employed
RT @capitalemployed: 42 ‘fresh-off-the-press’ stock pitches we’ve enjoyed reading in the past two weeks 👇
https://t.co/Kh4IdyFBpa https://t.co/pd9uS5vcZV
tweet
AkhenOsiris
Tariff State of the Union
Negotiate First:
- India
- Australia
- Brazil
Retaliate First:
- Canada
- EU
- China
- Mexico
Need to Think:
- South Korea
- Japan
All roads lead to negotiation eventually, even Canadians are talking with US, but just noting the kneejerk reactions.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raise car prices in response to his 25% tariff, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/zCpPc51Vm3
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Leading indicators point to a further inflation rise:
The US manufacturing input price index jumped to ~65 points in March, the highest in 31 months.
The last time we saw the index just high, CPI inflation stood at 8.5%, the third-highest reading since the 1980s.
At the same time, the services input prices index rose to 60 points, the highest level in 18 months.
Input costs across both goods and services sectors surged at their fastest pace in 23 months.
Inflation is back on the rise.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
The US economic policy uncertainty index hit its highest level in history, how did the market perform following previous spikes?
Following the 2020 uncertainty surge, the S&P 500 rallied +63.3% over the next 12 months.
The second-highest return was seen after February 2009 when the market gained +50.3%.
On the other hand, in the wake of economic policy uncertainty spikes in 2001 and 2008, the market dropped -17.0% and -9.4%, respectively.
In most occurrences, however, the S&P 500 saw double-digit returns within a year.
High policy uncertainty usually provides long-term buying opportunities.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Lindsey Graham has introduced legislation which would impose significant sanctions on Russia if they re-invade Ukraine after a peace deal.
It already has 50 cosponsors, 25 from each party.
tweet
Finding Compounders
Another great piece by Michael Burry
- Finding Value in Fast Food(1998)
Here he analyses Tricon Global- now known as Yum Brands
He goes through analysing Spin Offs- what should we look for? https://t.co/JjrYBOBxhD
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The White House says President Trump has "made up his mind" on tariffs which will likely be announced on April 2nd at 4 PM ET.
These tariffs will officially go live beginning on Thursday, April 3rd.
We will breaking it all down as the announcements are made.
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
Just sent out my piece on Evolution to the Premium subscribers. Focusing on the downside risks and regulatory changes.
Off to Madrid tomorrow for the Value Spain conference, and then 10 days in Tenerife ✈️🌴
$EVO.ST $EVVTY https://t.co/R0aBOSVc7E
tweet
Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: Market’s sleeping on this cash machine - $PYPL
PayPal $PYPL at a 12.3% FCF yield is REALLY REALLY hard to ignore...
This means you are getting a 12% return on your dollars invested annually if they did not grow at all. PayPal can use this cash flow to pay dividends, reinvest into the business, pay down debt or do buybacks.
They are doing LOADS of buybacks right now and at this cheap of a valuation it's very value-accretive.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Mexico's President says their response to US tariffs will be announced on Thursday, April 3rd.
It's officially "reciprocal tariff" week:
President Trump has called Wednesday "Liberation Day" with 20%+ tariffs coming on up to 25+ countries.
US tariffs will impact $1.5+ TRILLION worth of imports by the end of April.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/WnaIVcApl0
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Department of Justice is seeking the death penalty for Luigi Mangione in the UnitedHealth CEO murder case. https://t.co/yjpuC53Hf0
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Newsmax, $NMAX, a cable-news media stock, is now up from $10 to $190 in 24 hours, up +1,800%.
All as the S&P 500 falls into a correction and the Magnificent 7 near bear market territory.
What is happening here? https://t.co/QlcsIvlX0g
What prompts a cable-news media stock to rise +800% in one day?
Newsmax, $NMAX, now up from $10.00 to $97.80 in 1 day. https://t.co/0RXLDYOS2S
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Yesterday marked one of our strongest ends to a quarter yet:
Throughout Q1 2025, we increased short exposure into most rallies of 3% or more on the basis of WEAKER sentiment.
This concluded with a large PUT position taken at on March 26th when the S&P 500 traded at 5780.
As shown below, one of our premium members was able to capitalize on a -280 POINT drawdown in 4 trading days.
With the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index now 70% above 2008 levels, Q2 2025 is going to be incredibly volatile.
Furthermore, most down days have come with ORDERLY selling, so far.
We have NOT seen capitulation yet.
@KobeissiLetter Trade the Trend!
@KobeissiLetter @TKL_Adam Appreciate your info and analysis!
It's helpful when making my setups. https://t.co/jri0HAuBjs
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi
tweet
Investing visuals
The four stages of every investor’s journey. Beware the loud voices echoing from mount stupidity. https://t.co/zk2BOFcNyf
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Institutional capital is pouring into gold:
In a recent Bank of America survey, 58% of fund managers said gold performs best in a trade war.
This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin.
Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.
It's truly a historic time in the market.
The modern day gold rush:
Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.
In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.
What is gold telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/JcEgjnWpgL
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
The modern day gold rush:
Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.
In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.
What is gold telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/JcEgjnWpgL
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
US debt crisis is set to get even worse:
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a record 156% in 2055, according to the CBO's latest forecast.
This is up from 154% estimated in January 2025 projections.
The CBO assumes nominal US GDP will grow to $88.4 trillion by 2055.
Meanwhile, total federal debt held by the public is set to reach a whopping $138.0 trillion.
The worst part?
This forecast assumes the US avoids a recession during this entire period.
What happens if the economy enters a recession?
tweet