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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
The Kobeissi Letter
President Trump on March 6th: "I'm not watching the stock market.
President Trump today: https://t.co/h0kkwDShrG
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The Kobeissi Letter
Retail investors are becoming even more bearish:
The share of individual investors expressing bearish sentiment over the next 6 months in the AAII survey hit 61.9%, the most since March 2009.
This is also the 3rd-highest reading since the survey began in 1987.
By comparison, the 2022 bear market peak was 60.8%.
AAII Bearish Sentiment has been above 55.0% for 6 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since the 1990s.
This has surpassed the previous 5-week streaks during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2022 bear market.
Market sentiment has rarely been this pessimistic.
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AkhenOsiris
On some planet, far far away...Stephanie Link and Jim Lebenthal were fully invested going into Liberation Day announcement.
Ok, ok, I'm kidding...the planet is not far, it's Earth and this is real...so they have no capital to deploy in this nasty tape and are forced sellers essentially.
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AkhenOsiris
Reuters:
Cambodia is facing tariffs of 49% that will hurt its garment and footwear industries and promise to crush hopes that it could attract investment relocating from other countries in the region.
It is a "very, very serious situation for the economy," said a Cambodia-based investment consultant who declined to be identified.
There is "nothing that Cambodia can offer as a negotiating tool, and will be at the back of a very long queue," he added.
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Investing visuals
It might feel very uncomfortable, but days like today are the best time to add to your favorite stocks.
Did you do some buying today? https://t.co/1uQsi0fRIl
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The Kobeissi Letter
The most shocking part about President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" day:
The fact that tariffs were imposed on 185 countries AT ONCE and the news was not leaked in advance is incredible.
This is likely the largest wave of tariffs imposed by the US in history, and markets had no idea it was coming.
In fact, after the initial announcement of 10% baseline tariffs, stocks RALLIED because markets thought "that was all."
Then, when President Trump picked up the poster as shown below, stocks erased $2 trillion in minutes.
We are truly witnessing history.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The results of our below poll are extremely interesting.
The MAJORITY of the 50,000 votes currently support President Trump's tariffs.
POLL: Do you support President Trump's tariffs?
Explain your reasoning in the comments.
- Yes
- No
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Finding Compounders
Using Mathematics to Make Money by Jim Simons https://t.co/5XIoPJpRs5
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Quiver Quantitative
Senator Bernie Moreno just said:
"I would go out and buy stocks today...there's no reason that Apple stock should be down." https://t.co/WdeUYxyP4K
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Canadian Prime Minister Carney says Canada will impose 25% tariffs on all vehicles imported from the U.S. that are not compliant with the USMCA trade deal.
We just witnessed history:
After "Liberation Day" tariffs, the weighted-average US tariff rate has jumped to a whopping 29%.
Not even the Smoot-Hawley Act during the 1930s Great Depression saw tariff rates this high.
Are you ready for what's next?
(a thread) https://t.co/kOLjN5xNnj
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Finding Compounders
The Home Page of a $1Trillion conglomerate https://t.co/INvFzQ7HlU
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Cory Booker just broke the record for the longest floor speech ever.
He's been standing for over 24 hours, with no bathroom breaks.
He has said that he is going to keep going for as long as he is physically able. https://t.co/TUGhS3UfmL
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AkhenOsiris
Fucknick on thin ice, per Politico:
Inside the White House, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been perhaps the biggest proponent of ”Liberation Day,” President Donald Trump’s promised unveiling of sweeping new tariffs on Wednesday. But as the day nears, the potential fallout from those tariffs may well liberate Lutnick from his role in the administration, according to half dozen people close to the White House.While Americans and much of the world brace for a possible season of pain following the imposition of the new tranche of tariffs, Trump’s orbit is ready to play the blame game should things go poorly for the White House. And all the fingers will be pointing at Lutnick, two people close to the administration, granted anonymity to discuss the private dynamics, told POLITICO.“I think people would take special pleasure in blaming him,” said one.
Lutnick spends substantial time in the Oval Office, hyping the president on his tariff strategy and “giving him bad advice — pushing more aggressive tariffs,” the person said.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains the “measured voice” advocating targeted tariffs. Trade adviser Peter Navarro has never been shy about his affection for tariffs, but he’s a known quantity and isn’t seen as shaking anything up. By contrast, Lutnick is “a new voice at the table pushing crazy shit,” in the words of the person familiar with the situation. “I don’t know anyone that isn’t pissed off at him.”
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump comments on the stock market's reaction and says "it's going very well" and the "market is going to boom."
We just witnessed history:
After "Liberation Day" tariffs, the weighted-average US tariff rate has jumped to a whopping 29%.
Not even the Smoot-Hawley Act during the 1930s Great Depression saw tariff rates this high.
Are you ready for what's next?
(a thread) https://t.co/kOLjN5xNnj
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AkhenOsiris
I'm convinced that even if Jamie Dimon was in the administration, he'd be spouting the exact same b.s. as Lutnick, Bessent, etc. on tv today.
Joining the admin makes you highly regarded. Your education reverts to that of a toddler.
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AkhenOsiris
Yes, Xi can control this 😂Lutnick: "20% China tariff would drop if Xi offers fentanyl cuts"- Consensus Media
I see you Apple -8%
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AkhenOsiris
Before the tariff barrage started a few weeks ago, there was still a camp that thought they would be used as a threat only and never put on 😂
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AkhenOsiris
Actually seeing a cpl of upgrades this morning, Block and Zscaler...get the fack outta here 😂
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Investing visuals
$NVDA is down 🔻30% from its January high.
Meanwhile:
🔹Revenue is growing 70%
🔹Free cash flow is up 125%
🔹It is trading at its lowest valuation in 6 years https://t.co/itUeqKKIti
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Finding Compounders
Peter Lynch on when to sell https://t.co/LJsbEKIFb0
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Investing visuals
$AMZN, $MSFT & $GOOGL: Why a long-term perspective matters. https://t.co/waFKJe7jTe
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The All-In Podcast
Bryan Johnson lays out deceptive practices by the food industrial complex
@bryan_johnson:
"There was a law passed by California that said, 'Baby food providers have to disclose heavy metals in their foods.'"
"So it went into effect January 1. So we go to Gerber's website. I can't find heavy metals results anywhere."
"And then I realized, my VPN's on, and I'm coming from a server outside of California."
"They've IP blocked it to California only origination, and they hide it."
@friedberg:
"No way. Wow."
@Jason:
"These (companies) are nefarious."
Bryan:
"It's really not good."
Friedberg:
" The system needs to be challenged and whatever's left will get hardened and whatever shouldn't be there will get blasted away and that's it."
Jason:
"But you gotta name and shame."
"That's the thing that really pisses me off. You gotta name and shame in order for them to do what's right."
Thanks to our partners for making this happen:
-- @gemini: https://t.co/inOdTdXC9i
-- @function: https://t.co/j1Z6TZUJka (use gift code ALLIN100 for $100 off membership - limited to the first 1K listeners)
-- @niagenplus: https://t.co/n6kmd4PgAN
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Canada just announced its response to the new US tariffs. https://t.co/xlxjy7g9hr
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The Kobeissi Letter
TECH STOCKS TODAY:
1. AppLovin, $APP: -13%
2. Robinhood, $HOOD: -12%
3. Apple, $AAPL: -9%
4. Amazon, $AMZN: -9%
5. Tesla, $TSLA: -8%
6. Broadcom, $AVGO: -8%
7. Meta, $META: -8%
8. Nvidia, $NVDA: -7%
9. AMD, $AMD: -6%
10. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -4%
The S&P 500 has now erased over $2 TRILLION today and the Russell 2000 is in bear market territory.
The Nasdaq 100 is just 2% away from entering its first bear market since 2022.
Truly a historic day in the market.
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The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: It's not every day you see oil prices trading -8% lower.
Oil markets are pricing-in a recession and OPEC is hiking production into it.
That's one way to get inflation down... https://t.co/ExQRsfhrQY
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US auto repossessions jumped 16% in 2024, to 1.73 million. the highest since 2009.
Over the last 3 years, vehicle seizures have surged by 600,000, or 53%.
This comes as consumers’ auto delinquencies have also risen sharply.
The share of subprime car borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans jumped to 6.56% in January, the most on record.
Moreover, auto loans serious delinquency rates (90+ days) hit 3.0% in Q4 2024, the highest in 14 years.
US consumers are beginning to default.
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AkhenOsiris
@RadnorCapital
Hi SRADnor, was wondering if you have any thoughts post SRAD's first ever Analyst Day. I like the 27% CAGR for EBITDA through 2027 👋
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AkhenOsiris
Israel wipes out all tariffs on US goods. Trump is winning you fools!
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