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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Quiver Quantitative
RT @PabloReports: JUST IN: @AOC asked about congressional stock trading surrounding Trump's tariff announcements ... tells reporters there is bipartisan support for legislation to ban trading, even if GOP-led House won't investigate flagrant cases. https://t.co/UGrrEn0yq6
We've already reported on some congressional stock purchases before the announcement of the tariff pause.
@AOC seems to be suggesting that there may be more: https://t.co/yNjJq2hP3u
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Quiver Quantitative
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson just gave out a free stock tip to reporters: https://t.co/Gbe2HFH5Be
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The Kobeissi Letter
The market is now realizing that we still have:
1. 10% baseline tariffs on all countries globally
2. 25% tariffs on automobile imports to the US
3. 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum tariffs
4. 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico
5. 145% tariffs on imports from China
This list also does not include all retaliatory tariffs imposed on the US.
The 90-day pause in "reciprocal tariffs" does not even temporarily end the trade war.
The trade war is in full swing still.
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Ro Khanna just introduced the "Drain the Swamp Act".
It would ban lobbyists from giving gifts to administration officials.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The White House says that tariffs on China are now at a total of 145%.
The U.S. imported $439 billion from China in 2024.
We now know Trump's TOP economic priority:
For weeks, President Trump said there would be NO tariff delay, even as stocks erased $12+ TRILLION.
Then, the bond market BROKE and a 90-day tariff pause was implemented 12 hours later.
Keep watching bonds.
(a thread) https://t.co/M3AltQqjee
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Finding Compounders
Learn to say No https://t.co/vCet06DGOd
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Investing visuals
$QQQ closed +12.2% yesterday. Outperforming 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2022 in a single day. https://t.co/eeKmSs5Vf6
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures extend losses to -125 points despite weaker than expected inflation data.
Markets think the recently strong jobs report and cool inflation data gives Trump the “green light” to continue the trade war. https://t.co/mFOsdatOKP
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Core CPI Inflation in the US just fell below 3.0% for the first time since March 2021 🇺🇸 https://t.co/cQbrxGy1cp
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Hidden Value Gems
It has happened 👇🏼
Prada Strikes $1.4 Billion Deal for Versace https://t.co/jqUv3xlzN4
Not bad for $CPRI if the deal goes through.
Prada close to offer €1.5B for Versace (20% of Capri's Sales and negative contribution to earnings). Versace has been loss-making for the past 3 quarters. Should be highly accretive for $CPRI.
Capri bought Versace for €1.85B in 2018, its recent asking price was €3B.
“Everyone is looking” at Versace - Miuccia Prada.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @novy_williams: Oct. 2021: @VividSeats goes public, stock has struggled
June 2022: @Seatgeek calls off reverse merger
April 2023: @Seatgeek files confidential IPO docs (hasn't happened)
Apr. 2025: @StubHub hits pause on IPO
What's up with these ticket companies? hollywoodreporter.com/busine…
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AkhenOsiris
I miss that wonderful time in history (4 wks ago) when tariffs were purely a negotiating tactic, and if actually enacted, 10-15% at most.
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AkhenOsiris
Sometime in the year 2100:
Ask AI: What was the market's biggest exogenous shock in the last 100 years?
Answer: Believe it or not, it was when an old orange idiot called Donald Trump took office in 2025. He was able to replicate and in some cases outdo the bear markets due to subprime mortgages, terrorist attacks, and a global pandemic. The speed of the drawdown due to Trump's retarded reciprocal tariff proposals was exacerbated in large part because almost all market participants were caught offsides.
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AkhenOsiris
Maybe a Freudian slip, but Powell just called the current situation "like other crises" when discussing if he chatted with other central bank colleagues
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now 2% away from triggering its first circuit breaker since March 2020. https://t.co/uT9zFv9Yq5
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Dow losses accelerate to -1,550 points on the day, on track for the 7th largest daily point decline in history. https://t.co/ef5iuYztSs
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Gold extends surge toward $3200/oz as U.S. equity markets decline.
The Dow is now down over -1,300 points on the day. https://t.co/pYnon3HnnY
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100’s decline accelerates to -4.3% as the White House says tariffs on China are at 145%. https://t.co/rp4xW5euXz
We now know Trump's TOP economic priority:
For weeks, President Trump said there would be NO tariff delay, even as stocks erased $12+ TRILLION.
Then, the bond market BROKE and a 90-day tariff pause was implemented 12 hours later.
Keep watching bonds.
(a thread) https://t.co/M3AltQqjee
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
We now know Trump's TOP economic priority:
For weeks, President Trump said there would be NO tariff delay, even as stocks erased $12+ TRILLION.
Then, the bond market BROKE and a 90-day tariff pause was implemented 12 hours later.
Keep watching bonds.
(a thread) https://t.co/M3AltQqjee
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: S&P 500 losses accelerate, now down nearly -3% on the day. https://t.co/GUEX2KNQsu
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Finding Compounders
Seth Klarman on Risk and Productive Worrying https://t.co/D4Uw7hb22E
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Inflation in the US is now down 60 basis points in 3 months. https://t.co/xeWfmv5oh3
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: March CPI inflation FALLS to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.5%.
Core CPI inflation FALLS to 2.8%, below expectations of 3.0%.
This marks the 2nd straight monthly decline in Headline and Core CPI inflation.
Inflation has cooled down despite the trade war.
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The All-In Podcast
Antonio Gracias Breaks Down SHOCKING Immigration Data 🤯
On E222 of All-In, @AntonioGracias joined to break down recent revelations that his @DOGE team uncovered while working at @SocialSecurity:
THE DISCOVERY:
"We mapped the system from enumeration, that's how you get your number, all the way to the end, went to the offices and saw how the offices operate."
"And in that process, one of our engineers found this data called Enumeration Beyond Entry."
"It had this giant ramp to it, and that just jumped out at us."
"And we're like, okay, what is that? So we dug into it."
"What happened was this program was designed for people that we want to let in, like the CARE Program, which is the Afghans. They would be in this number."
"What jumped out at us wasn't that this is here, because it has legitimate use."
"It's the growth. Why did it grow this fast?"
"That's what we dug into."
"What we find here is that a legitimate program was... the word I use is abused."
THE PROCESS:
"They allowed people that were illegals at the border to come in legally."
"They were giving people, at times, notices to appear."
"And what that allows you to do is come in the country, and then you're scheduled a court date, which is like six years out."
"Six years out is the average, by the way. It could be longer than that."
"And while you're waiting for your court date, you could fill out an asylum application."
"Once the application's in, you can file another form, 765, to get a work authorization."
"Once you get that, you get a 766 and we automatically send you a social security card in the mail."
"No interview at all."
"That is the majority of the growth you see in these numbers."
THE SHOCKING DATA:
"We found that every benefit program we looked at was being accessed by these people."
"1.3M of them are on Medicaid right now, today."
"And by the way, it's just ramping, it's just starting."
"And we looked at voter rolls and we found that thousands of them were registered to vote in a handful of states."
"And then we went even further with those friendly states and found that many of those people had actually voted."
"It was shocking to us. And if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes, I wouldn't believe it."
"And this is the tip of the iceberg."
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AkhenOsiris
Stop advertising this shit to us and pick up the damn phone with your other trump lickers and tell himVix spiking. Highest fear level since covid. Now things start to break. The danger w shock therapy approaches in complex systems - it’s impossible to model the negative reflexivity. Time to make some deals & move on before we cause a recession & lose support for tax reform.😮📉 - Brad Gerstner
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AkhenOsiris
Trump and his ancient retarded cronies are skating to where the puck was...40 yrs ago.
Let's bring menial labor back to the US and stifle the high margin, high intellect tech industry.
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AkhenOsiris
IPOs shelvedShould Discord, Klarna shelve IPO plans until calmer markets? - AkhenOsiris
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AkhenOsiris
Based on the newsflow today on the heels of back-to-back massive market losses (this is all over mainstream news, Main St is scared):
- Bessent might be willing to show some fucking spine according to Fox News
- Trump touts Vietnam conversation
- as per @markflowchatter , tech leaders to visit Trump
I would think the risks this weekend are greater to the upside (unlike the past 8 wks, weekend news was always chest thumping and rhetoric). Let's see.
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AkhenOsiris
All the comments about stability in his department were essentially saying Trump henchmen are toddler-like retardsWhether you agree with his policy stance or not the only adult in the room is Powell. - Q-Cap
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