4
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
soken
RT @SimplyBitcoinTV: “Bitcoin is pumping“ 🚀
Me with my 0.007 BTC: https://t.co/RYx70idSw0
tweet
soken
RT @habermeydani_: 2023 böyle geçti! https://t.co/wEUmX5vQhU
tweet
soken
RT @sherlock_hodles: crypto bros on their way to quit their job at Mcdonalds https://t.co/g8jsqPrKWs
tweet
Finding Compounders
François Rochon runs Giveryn Capital which has returned 15.7% annually since 1993.
Here is an article he wrote about why Timing the Market doesn’t work https://t.co/nXAimoRqGm
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Goldman Sachs says gold “could plausibly” trade around $4,500/oz by the end of 2025, implying another +38% of upside.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The 10Y Note Yield rises back above 4.50% at the open.
The bond market is in control. https://t.co/sfPGBjEWvr
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures open just 50 points higher after the “tariff exemptions” headlines. https://t.co/XSUfTM29yK
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Here's exactly what happened with tariff exemptions:
The White House published a note titled "Clarification of Exceptions Under Executive Order 14257" on April 11th.
Certain goods were apparently NEVER supposed to be subject to the "reciprocal tariffs" announced on April 2nd.
Most media outlets thought the April 11th "clarification" posted by the White House was a new list of exemptions.
But rather, these goods were never actually intended to be subject to 145% tariffs.
This also explains why "refunds" will be dated back to April 5th on these goods, essentially classifying this as an enforcement error, not a policy reversal.
On top of this, Trump is saying the "fake news" is refusing to report the truth.
But, it appears that the news and most investors, along with customs enforcement themselves, never truly understood what was being tariffed to begin with.
This was a complete misunderstanding by almost everyone involved.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
President Trump on "tariff exceptions" announced on Friday:
First, he says "there was no tariff exception announced on Friday."
Then, he says they will be subject to the "existing 20% fentanyl tariffs."
Then, he says they are "just moving to a different tariff bucket."
However, it's still very unclear:
Does this mean electronics and semiconductors are subject to 20% tariffs but not 145% reciprocal tariffs?
Maybe this can still be viewed as bullish if so?
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Honest question:
How did we go from tariffs being "refunded" back to April 5th to "there was no tariff exception announced on Friday" within 48 hours? https://t.co/ypkzuVYsWV
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says "there was no Tariff 'exception' announced on Friday."
"These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff “bucket," he says.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Reports are emerging of division at the White House.
President Trump’s “tariff exemptions” quickly transitioned to tariff reclassifications after Lutnick’s comments this morning.
Does President Trump come out and reaffirm tariff exemptions are here to stay, but risk appearing weak and internally divided?
If not, the equity market’s rally will be suppressed and yields will likely hold up.
After all, let’s not forget who everyone is still at the mercy of:
The bond market.
tweet
Finding Compounders
Remember David Sokol?
He used to be at Berkshire, he was actually the possible successor to Warren Buffett , until he resigned after a scandal.
His conduct was said to have “ violated Berkshire’s business ethics and insider trading policies.”
This was after it was found out that he had purchased shares of Lubrizol worth $10 million, shortly before recommending it to Buffett and he failed to disclose this conflict of interests when pushing for the deal.
tweet
The All-In Podcast
David Sacks: The Decades-Long Bipartisan Consensus on Free Trade was a Mistake
@DavidSacks on E223:
"We've had a bipartisan consensus in Washington for decades that unfettered free trade is a good thing."
"No matter how big our trade deficits got, no matter how rich and powerful China got, no matter how unfair the trade practices got, no matter how many millions of our jobs in factories got exported overseas, this has been the bipartisan consensus in Washington."
"And Larry, you're right that it started before the Clinton administration, and the George W. Bush administration definitely accelerated it."
"But there has absolutely been a bipartisan consensus in Washington that this sort of unfettered free trade policy was good for the country."
"Now, how do you change that? You can nitpick this and you can make all the process objections you want, but Donald Trump has changed the conversation."
"He was one of the few people, one the few public figures in America who was right about this."
"That throwing open our markets to these foreign products without thinking about the consequences was a mistake."
"I think most people today would say he was right about this."
tweet
Finding Compounders
Charlie Munger’s Principles https://t.co/7J90m8OJk6
tweet
soken
RT @OneBadDude_: Is there anything that this man can’t do? https://t.co/4wBfhaO3f0
tweet
soken
RT @OfAthenry: This guy just took the holy grail of leaks https://t.co/BtNukyf8VA
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Something doesn't add up here:
1. Trump on April 7th: Fed Chair Powell is "slow moving"
2. Bessent on April 14th: Trump Admin is thinking of successor to Powell
3. Trump on April 17th: Fed Chair Powell "will be out of there"
4. Trump on April 19th: "Studying" if he can fire Fed Chair Powell
5. Trump on April 21st: Fed Chair Powell is "a major loser"
6. Trump today: "No intention" to fire Fed Chair Powell
What changed today?
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
Tariffs on semiconductor and electronic imports were "reduced" from 145% to 20%.
Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are up just 30 points right now.
Investors have lost all confidence in this market. https://t.co/WYb57V2bZC
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Apple, $AAPL, opens +7% higher in overnight trading. https://t.co/JSW0Hurtgy
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures pare gains and fall below 5,400.
Now up just +35 points after the “tariff exemptions” this weekend.
We may see futures red by the morning. https://t.co/PdyXD4w2LL
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter for the week of April 14th has been published and may be viewed through the link below:
https://t.co/6TDuawjZAN
The Chart of the Week for the week of April 14th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:
https://t.co/jCCx3iSLbJ
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: China has officially halted shipments of several rare earth minerals to the US.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
This has to be the worst possible outcome for the bond market.
Uncertainty just hit its highest level since March 2020 and will continue to rise.
If the plan was to announce a near-term "tariff exemption" to calm bond markets, it has failed miserably.
Buckle up for a wild week.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
You can't make this up:
Saturday began with "tariff exemptions" on electronics and semiconductors being announced.
This then became refunds on all tariffs in these categories dated back to April 5th.
Which then become electronic and semiconductor tariffs that were delayed "for a month or two."
Which then became, tariffs that were simply being recategorized.
Which is now tariffs that are "just moving to a different tariff bucket," per President Trump.
President Trump just said "the fake news knows this, but they refuse to report it."
What is happening here?
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
We think the “tariff exemptions” announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary.
The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.
This is why Lutnick said tariffs on electronics will “resume in a month or two” this morning, without a predetermined timeline.
The intention was likely to allow volatility and yields to subside before ramping up pressure again.
However, Lutnick said the quiet part out loud too soon.
The exemptions, which were being perceived as almost an end to the trade war by investors, have therefore lost much of their intended effects.
As a result, reports of division within the White House are emerging, supporting this thesis.
Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown.
The bond market is king.
Reports are emerging of division at the White House.
President Trump’s “tariff exemptions” quickly transitioned to tariff reclassifications after Lutnick’s comments this morning.
Does President Trump come out and reaffirm tariff exemptions are here to stay, but risk appearing weak and internally divided?
If not, the equity market’s rally will be suppressed and yields will likely hold up.
After all, let’s not forget who everyone is still at the mercy of:
The bond market.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: There is reportedly “significant division” inside the White House over Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s comments on the temporary nature of the tariff exemptions this morning, per Fox News’ Charles Gasparino.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
POLL: Are this weekend’s events bullish or bearish for stocks over the next 2 weeks?
Comment your reasoning below.
- Bullish
- Bearish
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: The weekend began with new “tariff exemptions” on electronics and semiconductors.
This quickly transitioned to temporary exemptions before more tariffs.
Which then became a reclassification of tariffs, from “reciprocal tariffs” to “sectoral tariffs.”
The result will be a near-term rally in risky assets.
However, long-term uncertainty has only increased, with even more ambiguity around tariff policy.
We see more volatility beyond the immediate horizon.
tweet