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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
AkhenOsiris
RT @JerryCap: It's quite amazing that they kinda know the headlines that will move the markets but when they actually talk everyone remembers how dumb they are.
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AkhenOsiris
Since Feb 18th peak, CRWD, one of the blue chip cybersec companies, has made the following moves:
$455 to $305 in 3 calendar weeks (-33%)
$305 to $385 in 2 weeks (25%+)
$385 to $320 in 10 days (-15%+)
$320 to $412 (current) in 3 weeks (30%)
Yes, it's an expensive stock so big swings should be expected, but wow!
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AkhenOsiris
Entertainment trade showing strength.
TTWO
NFLX
NTDOY
All printing ATH
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soken
sometime the winner is the one who enjoy his journey without regret
https://t.co/YV5Xb4gG2L
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soken
tariff war? why don't Bitcoin war https://t.co/9bS6OdPNww
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soken
did you buy the bottom last night?
me last night
Seal sleeping underwater https://t.co/be7C2wAoRj
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soken
RT @TrendPSPK: With 100% strike rate, All 21/21 MLAs of @JanaSenaParty will enter Assembly tomorrow, June '21' 🎯💥
@PawanKalyan garu is coming to Assembly for the first time as Deputy Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. 🔥
God's Script 🥵 https://t.co/Syh2qunet5
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The Kobeissi Letter
President Trump is now officially selling a “Trump 2028” hat, in the first sign of Trump wanting to run for a 3rd term. https://t.co/lqfMQ0o2iZ
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US utility stocks post $318 million in net outflows, also marking their 9th weekly withdrawal over the last 10 weeks.
The 4-week average of outflows reached $261 million, the highest in 5.5 years.
By comparison, the 2022 bear market high was ~$200 million, according to BofA.
This is all despite utilities outperforming the broader market this year.
The utilities sector has risen 3.5% year-to-date, beating the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100's decline of -10.2% and -13.1%.
Are utilities pricing-in a recession?
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Finding Compounders
In 1994, Jeff Bezos posted Amazon’s first job opening on Usenet
From the requirements , you can see that Jeff only wanted extra ordinary people https://t.co/fjJ9OdvmjA
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $LRCX 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 16.66x
•10-Year Mean: 20.20x
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.80%
•10-Year Mean: 5.51%
As you can see, $LRCX appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~21% MORE in earnings per share & ~23% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LRCX is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $5.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $4.48B
$LRCX has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 25x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 46.8%
•2023: 39.3%
•2024: 31.3%
•LTM: 34.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 69.8%
•2022: 74.8%
•2023: 62.3%
•2024: 45.7%
•LTM: 50.4%
$LRCX has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.61B
•2024: $14.91B
•CAGR: 12.45%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $571.55M
•2024: $4.26B
•CAGR: 22.24%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $0.44
•2024: $3.03
•CAGR: 21.28%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2019: $0.44
•2024: $0.80
•CAGR: 12.70%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.77B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.30B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~26%, $LRCX increased its EPS by ~35% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 29.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~21% MORE in EPS & ~23% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LRCX has to grow earnings at an 8.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (8.33%) required growth rate:
2025E: $3.75 (23.7% YoY) *FY Jun
2026E: $3.88 (3.6% YoY)
2027E: $4.65 (19.8% YoY)
2028E: $5.50 (18.3% YoY)
$LRCX has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $LRCX ends FY 2028 with $5.50 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
20x P/E: $110.00💵 … ~20.2% CAGR
19x P/E: $104.50💵 … ~18.3% CAGR
18x P/E: $99.00💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
17x P/E: $93.50💵 … ~14.3% CAGR
16x P/E: $88.00💵 … ~12.2% CAGR
While it’s certainly reasonable for $LRCX to trade for 18x - 20x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety
Yet, $LRCX still appears to have attractive return potential if we assume 16x - 17x, a multiple that’s justified by its excellent capital allocation, wide moat & growth rate
Moreover, $LRCX derives a large portion of its revenues from memory chip production, which is a strong growth driver for the company
~40% of revenue comes from recurring-like services, making $LRCX more predictable softening sector volatility
Today at $63💵 $LRCX appears to be a great consideration, with some margin of safety
Given its high uncertainty, I’d buy in tranches and leave some room to add more if it declines further, e.g. 1/3 at $63, 1/3 at $55, 1/3 at $50
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭�[...]
The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: I will be joining the great Charles Payne, @cvpayne, in studio today LIVE on Fox Business at 2:15 PM ET.
Will be discussing markets, tariffs, and the journey of building @KobeissiLetter.
Tune in to hear my outlook during these volatile times.
Watch LIVE at 2:15 PM ET!
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Finding Compounders
Start with buybacks in bargain hunt https://t.co/maA3alaVeF
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AkhenOsiris
RT @FundaBottom: Today, there is a rumored list of tariff exemptions for certain US products from China. We have confirmed this event with companies in the analog chip, blood products, and ethane sectors, who have received notifications from Chinese customs.
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AkhenOsiris
Do countries want anything other than soybeans?Japan weighs buying more US soybeans as part of tariff deal - Nikkei. asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trad… - FinancialJuice
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AkhenOsiris
Bashing Trump for caving has been in fashion since the 90 day pause. Shall we bash China too for this semi reprieve?
It's obvious both countries are desperate to de-escalate "discreetly". Saving face is a bitch.
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soken
RT @alifarhat79: Who did this? https://t.co/vqtte4kQcg
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soken
bull keeps bro on crypto
This was too wholesome to not share https://t.co/CcTYyKNrWc
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soken
me and bro after found 100x https://t.co/GfHmWdvJsh
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soken
RT @CamCWFL: @DailyLoud Him walking back to his team https://t.co/IacAJJWwKy
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soken
RT @TheBoysOOCC: Never forget this legendary magazine cover shoot. #TheBoys https://t.co/hWT6nS3zvn
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Investing visuals
Genuinely considering limiting replies to verified users only, getting over 10 bot replies on every post.
Should I?
- Yes
- No
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�.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says he met with China this morning.
The Nasdaq 100 rises to a new high of day, now up +2%.
The market is now up over +1% on the day on no news at all.
As we have seen multiple times this year, it almost feels like someone is front-running something right now.
We expect to see some sort of bullish announcement soon. https://t.co/MX1fpabT7e
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Finding Compounders
Chuck Akre’s interview on MasterCard and Visa back in 2012 https://t.co/FP1LB6eVrh
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