7
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
soken
RT @dme_363: The 100 men training for the gorilla
https://t.co/jV2t0qN1Px
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is interesting:
The bull-bear spread in the AAII survey has dropped to -34 points, near the lowest since the 2022 bear market low.
This marks a 50+ point decline over the last few weeks.
In the recent survey, 55.6% of respondents were bearish over the next 6 months, with just 21.9% expressing bullish sentiment.
However, their asset allocation to stocks has fallen just 3 percentage points, to 67%, which is a historically elevated reading.
To put this into perspective, during the 2020 pandemic, stock allocation fell to ~55%.
In other words, individual investors have barely sold any stock despite being extremely bearish.
Retail investors are still heavily invested.
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The All-In Podcast
Google has a Gemini Problem, and Chamath has a plan to fix it 📈
On E225, the besties discussed how Google can cut ChatGPT's lead over Gemini without killing its $200B/year search ads business.
@DavidSacks:
"I think the problem that Google has with respect to ChatGPT, is Gemini is not getting the usage, and ChatGPT is just growing like crazy."
"If you look at how these models perform according to the benchmarks, Gemini is actually really good, but they have not caught up on the usage side."
@friedberg:
"Chamath, you're the CEO of Google, you've got a $200B run rate search ad business."
"What's the right integration of Gemini such that you don't massively disrupt the search ad business overnight?"
"Or do you not care and you're just gonna do it? I think that's the conundrum (Google) is dealing with."
@chamath:
" The more difficult question is, what does the integration look like?"
"They're already inserting Gemini in all kinds of uncomfortable ways."
"So for example, if you use Gmail, or if you use Google Workspace, what happens today is all these random Gemini pop-ups come up all over the place."
"That is an implementation that happened at way too junior a level by people that have no product taste."
"And if you use the products every day, it would be hard for you to disagree with me."
@DavidSacks:
" The Google homepage, would you replace that with an AI chatbot?"
@chamath:
" No. Here's what I would do: I would first go to the critical other points that are around, that today do not cannibalize the blue links."
"If you look at the traffic patterns, almost as a Sankey diagram, the real thing you should be looking at here is where are the entry points into Google that then result in a clickable link."
"And what it would show you is that there are certain places that are highly de-optimized today for revenue generating events."
"They happen as a byproduct, but they don't happen as the use case."
"So in that example, you would put Gmail as a critical place, the Google one subscription, and there's like five or six other places."
"That's where I would put Gemini as the front door and start to habituate 300 to 500 million people a week in using that."
"I think then you can figure out over time how much money you can make from all of that, or how it directs derivative revenue, and figure out what to do with Google dot com last."
"But my point is, the experience in Gmail should be done today."
"The experience in YouTube should be done today."
"The experience in Google one should be done today."
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Finding Compounders
The biggest mistakes real estate investors make
By John T Reed https://t.co/HaRqGWA5Vz
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Finding Compounders
Here are some highlights from a Lou Simpson interview
He answers on the differences between him and Warren Buffett and the factors he looks for when he is worried an investment might blow up https://t.co/mnEiwkxIoy
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The Kobeissi Letter
Gold continues to make history:
Gold prices have outpaced the S&P 500 by 32.6 percentage points year-to-date, the most since at least 1975.
This has surpassed the record of ~26.0 percentage points for the same period of the year during 2020.
This comes as gold prices have rallied 26.5% while the S&P 500 has declined 6.1% so far this year.
Gold is now on track for its second consecutive year of S&P 500 outperformance.
Since the October 2022 low, gold prices have returned 102%, nearly DOUBLING S&P 500's gain of 54%.
Keep watching gold.
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The Kobeissi Letter
Market participation has been weak despite the recent rally:
The share of the S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average currently stands at just 30%.
By comparison, this year’s peak was ~57% in February.
Additionally, the share of the S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average stands at 32%.
All while the share of the Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above their 200-day average is at 36%, still HALF of the 2025 peak.
Market breadth has a long way to recover.
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Finding Compounders
A letter Warren Buffett wrote, in Barron’s, back when he still ran the Buffett Partnership. ( It’s the second one) https://t.co/utR6PPHzKQ
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Finding Compounders
Are these the new Warren Buffetts ?
This article was written in 2012
Are the investors mentioned still beating the market ? https://t.co/isjPjxeavZ
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soken
thinking why I invests Crypto every week for 7 years but I still broke
(that crrypto is ETH) https://t.co/bLTMqlDibl
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soken
POV: You're dying slowly and still not have 1 BTC https://t.co/dCtDs0kqDm
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Finding Compounders
Intrinsic value and Margin of Safety https://t.co/iiILSuiQf2
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Finding Compounders
This is a must read from Warren Buffett https://t.co/jsad1Nyuj1
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Finding Compounders
What it takes to excel as a fund manager https://t.co/7G0An213Db
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soken
RT @txtwerse: this is how listening to PANIC by Beomgyu feels like
cr coffee_time_corgi https://t.co/vQnE8vokiG
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: MSCI Inc $MSCI Q1 Earnings Report🎯
Rev: $745M vs $744M est✅ | +10% YoY
EPS: $4.00 vs $3.91 est ✅ | +14% YoY
___
One of the stickiest businesses in the 🌎 https://t.co/zxT9ihHP2h
Take a look at $MSCI quarterly revenue over the past 10 years (40 quarters) 🤯
1. Revenue declined in just 3/40 quarters
2. Revenue increased in 37/40 quarters
It doesn’t get more predictable than that
Keep in mind, this is Q/Q not Y/Y, which makes it even more impressive 🌐 https://t.co/i0IpRNsBA8
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter for the week of April 28th has been published and may be viewed through the link below:
https://t.co/6TDuawjZAN
The Chart of the Week for the week of April 28th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:
https://t.co/jCCx3iSLbJ
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The Kobeissi Letter
This has been one of the most volatile years in history:
The S&P 500 has seen a 2% move in either direction on 23% of trading days, or at least once a week so far this year.
This is the highest reading since 2022, when the share hit 29% for the full year.
By comparison, the long-term average has been twice a month.
According to Bloomberg, April is on track to be the third-most volatile month on record, after October 2008 and March 2020.
Volatility is here to stay.
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Hidden Value Gems
Should have read the book. Here is a good summary from Templeton Phillips.
"In his book The Art of the Deal, President Trump advocates for creating a high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability during negotiations...Those tactics aim to apply pressure through uncertainty, distractions, surprise, and confusion surrounding the objective. Moreover, President Trump expresses a willingness to leave deals open-ended and/or renegotiate them at a moment’s notice. Trump also advocates for starting negotiations with extreme positions (e.g., 145% tariffs on Chinese exports), with his actual goal lying much lower and allowing both sides to claim victory if and when an agreement is achieved."
https://t.co/OYaJvidsoq
Has anyone actually read The Art of the Deal?
Probably a few clues on what to expect in the next 4 years... https://t.co/0qS4lqxNUS
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Finding Compounders
Stay on track using @gainify_io
The most DEFINING week of earnings season kicks off tomorrow.
Heavyweights reporting: $AAPL $AMZN $BKNG $BRK.A $HOOD $LLY $META $MCD $MSFT $PYPL $QCOM $SPOT $V $XOM and many others.
It’s a big one.
Stay organized — track everything at https://t.co/3KIppfqCEm https://t.co/gp2B1VPG5D
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Investing visuals
Earnings summary of past week covering $TSLA, $GOOGL, $ISRG and $NOW 👇🧵 https://t.co/JmQyW5Olzk
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Finding Compounders
Sir John Templeton
The original value investor https://t.co/0fvahORjSo
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Finding Compounders
RT @thebigideas_: A 2012 article by Greenwald where he recommends selling Apple & Amazon.
Both have since 16x
A good reminder that success in investing comes in multiple facets, value investing is not the holy grail.
A good investment is not one w/ low P/E etc… it is simply a successful prediction of future cash flows, and a business with talented allocators.
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The All-In Podcast
saturday morning special! 🚨🚨🚨
@andrewrsorkin fills in for @Jason who was in detroit watching the knicks!
-- trump rally or bessent put?
-- tariffs damaging the american brand?
-- investing in india
-- elon back at tesla
-- google's gemini problem
-- china's thorium discovery
(0:00) the besties intro andrew ross sorkin
(2:04) market bump: trump rally or a bessent put?
(18:04) are tariffs damaging the american "brand"? apple's investment in india
(38:18) balance of power politics, ukraine/russia ceasefire halted over crimea
(50:00) alphabet earnings: massive resiliency, google's gemini problem
(1:05:40) tesla jumps on elon's return, pulling back from doge
(1:18:35) science corner: china's thorium breakthrough
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Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: Even on 2026E EBITDA, $NKE trades at 2x peer multiples.
Stock's down 40% over 9M, but the bar’s still high. https://t.co/n9VzMG1jXL
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soken
RT @angelsattract: Konudan bağımsız rüyalarımda hep aynı bu şekilde havada yürüyorum. İlk defa dün bu konu üzerinde düşündüm. Hatta buraya yazacaktım vazgeçmiştim. Şimdi bu videoyu görünce şok oldum. Bunun anlamı ne bilen var mı? Ya da siz de havada yürüyor musunuz rüyanızda? https://t.co/VrB8cKrwtK
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