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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
The All-In Podcast
Foundation Models: Who wins in 2025?
On the most recent episode, the besties discussed @Google's leap in performance with its newest Gemini model.
According to our partner @Polymarket, @Google is also the current favorite to end the year with the best-performing model, as measured by Chatbot Arena results.
It's a three-horse race between Google (38%), @OpenAI (26%), and @xai (17%)!
Which company do you think ends 2025 with the best model?
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Investing visuals
$V Q1 Earnings 🚨
• Revenue: $9.59B vs $9.55B Est.
• EPS: $2.76 vs $2.68 Est.
Stock is up +2% https://t.co/BeDT2GYVkA
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Visa $V Reports a Strong Q2 🎯
✅ Rev: $9.59B vs $9.55B (est) | +9% YoY
✅ EPS: $2.76 vs $2.68 (est) | +10% YoY
Board of directors authorized a new $30B multi-year share repurchase program https://t.co/VYxiChhXwk
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.38x
•5-Year Mean: 30.91x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.58%
•5-Year Mean: 2.92%
As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in earnings per share & ~12% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $71.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $39.72B
$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 46x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 31.0%
•2024: 29.7%
•LTM: 28.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 40.1%
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•LTM: 34.3%
$MSFT has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $86.83B
•2024: $245.12B
•CAGR: 10.93%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $27.02B
•2024: $74.07B
•CAGR: 10.61%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $2.63
•2024: $11.80
•CAGR: 16.19%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 8.40B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.47B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~12% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 69.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.4%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $1.12
•2024: $3.00
•CAGR: 10.35%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in EPS & ~12% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 14.19% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.19%) required growth rate:
2025E: $13.16 (11.5% YoY) *FY Jun
2026E: $14.95 (13.6% YoY)
2027E: $17.51 (17.1% YoY)
$MSFT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSFT ends 2027 with $17.51 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $560.32💵 … ~18.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $525.30💵 … ~15.1% CAGR
29x P/E: $507.79💵 … ~13.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $490.28💵 … ~11.5% CAGR
27x P/E: $472.77💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume a 28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential
At 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential
$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders
Although I wouldn’t want to rely on a >30x multiple, I feel comfortable accumulating $MSFT shares at ~$390💵 while relying on 28x - 29x
I consider $MSFT a steal with a large margin of safety at $350💵, where I can reasonably expect 11.7% CAGR while assuming a conservative 25x
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. <a href='https://twit[...]
Investing visuals
All eyes on $MSFT earnings tomorrow!
• Est. Revenue: $68.4B
• Est. EPS: $3.22 https://t.co/fkDHKbUXfk
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Tim Burchett just said that he hopes members of Congress are arrested for corrupt stock trades.
"Congress is hogs at the trough" https://t.co/1UrrUIu4FZ
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App Economy Insights
$SOFI SoFi's Contribution Profit by Segment. https://t.co/TZS4WDNKr2
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Investing visuals
Business breakdown of $META ahead of tomorrow’s earnings.
What are your expectations for their Q1 2025 results? https://t.co/hbRclwTThe
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Capital Employed
67 Q1 2025 fund letters now uploaded.
A superb treasure trove of insights and potential investment ideas... 👇
https://t.co/lJZP1lUdTx https://t.co/7quBKUeE5u
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The All-In Podcast
Science Corner: David Friedberg Explains Recent Mitotherapy Breakthroughs ⚡️
On E224, @friedberg broke down what mitotherapy is and how recent discoveries could unleash this treatment for many diseases:
"So mitochondria are the powerhouse of the cell."
"Every cell in our body gets its energy, which is what it uses to function, from the mitochondria."
"And so there's been a lot of research into the relationship between mitochondria and aging, and that dysfunctional mitochondria may actually be a key driver for many diseases."
"Including many cancers, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, ALS, features of autism, muscle tissues being weak, etc."
" So, as the cells get older and the mitochondria stop working, we make new mitochondria."
"But over time, the DNA degrades and the mitochondria become less effective and there are fewer functional mitochondria per cell."
Friedberg highlighted three recent papers:
1) "The power and potential of mitochondria transfer" (@nature)
-- "these folks identified and demonstrated that mitochondria can actually transfer from one cell to another"
-- " So, if you've got a cell that's got damaged, or dysfunctional mitochondria, they've identified three mechanisms by which mitochondria can move into a cell that needs more mitochondria that are working and are more functional."
-- "And as a result, it can rejuvenate or provide energy to a dysfunctional cell, which might improve dysfunctional tissue or improve disease."
2) "A human brain map of mitochondrial respiratory capacity and diversity" (@nature)
-- " this was the first mapping of the mitochondria in the human brain"
-- " what it showed was that different parts of the brain, different cells, had different amounts of mitochondria and different mitochondrial function."
-- "(This) starts to highlight how that difference in energy production in different cells in different parts of the brain may actually cause some of the things like memory loss or speech impairment,"
-- "the mitochondrial dysfunction in the brain might actually be the key driver of that aging symptomology."
3) "Organelle-tuning condition robustly fabricates energetic mitochondria for cartilage regeneration" (@nature | Bone Research)
-- " (the researchers) figured out a way to treat stem cells so that (they) would start to make an excess amount of mitochondria than they normally would make"
-- " So they created highly energetic mitochondria and they made a lot of them."
-- " the idea that we can put mitochondria into our body or into tissue in our body to heal it or repair it has been something that folks have been trying to do research around for a long time"
-- " but the limiting factor is access to enough mitochondria"
-- " so this mechanism that they developed opens up the door to this whole new therapeutic modality, a new type of therapy called mitotherapy"
Conclusion:
" ... based on the series of papers that we're seeing coming out recently, I believe (this) could end up becoming a really incredible new therapy that may ultimately lead to the treatment for many diseases that we're dealing with right now."
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Quiver Quantitative
Congress vs. The Market.
Follow here for alerts on new trades: https://t.co/t7O5QCINgc
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Mike Levin just said:
"President Trump says he would 'absolutely' sign legislation to ban congressional stock trading.
Now, the only one holding this up is Speaker Mike Johnson.
Let's make it happen." https://t.co/HcLypQrJwP
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The All-In Podcast
Megyn Kelly on the Next Batch of Politicians: "These are Congressional Kardashians" 💣
At last year's All-In Summit, @megynkelly brought the 🔥:
@chamath:
"Give us a state of politicians, post this current batch."
"What is the same? What's different?"
@megynkelly:
"I don't feel very optimistic."
@chamath:
"Okay. Is it getting worse? "
@megynkelly:
"Yeah, it's getting worse because of Instagram and AOC. That kind of person."
"Yes, her specifically, but not just her."
"These are Congressional Kardashians."
"Can I tell you something? My experience in the news business dealing with politicians leads me to believe that the people in this room, and on this stage over your two day conference, are the people we need to be looking to for our future leaders, and ideas, and to save the country."
"It's not Washington, DC."
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AkhenOsiris
$DKNG $FLUT $GENI $SRAD- 1Q Net Revenue up +34% YoY with strong growth across both iGaming (+27%) and Online Sports (+68%)- Alfonso Straffon 🇨🇷🇺🇸🇲🇽
- Positive 1Q EBITDA and underlying trends reaffirm confidence that FY 2025 will be EBITDA positive
BetMGM 1Q 2025 Business Update
prnewswire.com/news-releases…
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Stock market futures move lower as uncertainty rises with the 90-day tariff pause now 20% complete. https://t.co/XpniCuot95
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App Economy Insights
$V Visa Q2 FY25 (March quarter).
• Payment volume +8% Y/Y.
• Cross-border volume +13% Y/Y.
• Processed transactions +9% Y/Y.
• Revenue +9% Y/Y to $9.6B ($50M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS of $2.76 ($0.08 beat). https://t.co/4iUWi8JdVP
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Booking Holdings $BKNG Q1 2025 Report 🗓️
✅ Rev: $4.76B vs $4.58B (est) | +8% YoY
✅ EPS: $24.81 vs $17.30 (est) | +22% YoY https://t.co/7WUeiVYh7f
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ter.com/DimitryNakhla/status/1917294188976132579'>tweet
Читать полностью…
The All-In Podcast
David Sacks Explains How Elon Can Pullback from DOGE and Still Be Effective
On E225, @DavidSacks responded to a question on if @elonmusk was "out of @DOGE":
" I don't think he's out of DOGE. He didn't say he was out of DOGE. It was just a matter of how much time he could allocate to each thing."
"I saw this before when I was part of the Twitter transition."
"For the first three months or so, he was basically full-time at Twitter HQ learning the business down to the database level."
"I mean, every nook and cranny of that business he learned about."
"Once he felt like he had a mental model and he had the people in place that he trusted, he can move to more of a maintenance mode."
"And I think that's the only way he can manage five companies, is that he has these intense bursts where he focuses on something, gets the right people and structure in place, feels like he understands it, and then he can delegate more."
"And I think that he has reached that point with DOGE, but he was also clear that he's gonna keep doing it, because if he doesn't, there's gonna be a huge backsliding where all the corrupt interest will basically put back all this corrupt spending."
"So he's gonna stay involved. But as an SGE, he's limited to 130 days a year anyway."
"And so it makes sense for him to kind of now ration his days a little more closely."
"My sense is that DOGE is gonna continue."
"It's just that Elon is shifting to a mode where he can manage it one day a week or two days a week, as opposed to being there five days a week."
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Quiver Quantitative
This is pretty wild.
Marjorie Taylor Greene bought stock in Palantir on April 8th.
On April 17th, a $30M deal between Palantir and ICE was announced.
Greene sits on the House Committee on Homeland Security.
The stock has now risen 48% in the three weeks since her purchase. https://t.co/HDqcwJk5Jf
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Capital Employed
Best Stock Pitches newsletter hitting inboxes tomorrow.
You don't want to miss this one - so many good ideas >
https://t.co/jEccgMyfbM
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Robert Bresnahan just filed over 50 new stock trades.
They were ALL sales.
Up to a million dollars of stock sold.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/RpQFPN7w7v
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App Economy Insights
$SOFI SoFi Q1 FY25:
• Members +34% to 10.9M.
• Revenue +20% Y/Y to $772M.
• Adjusted revenue +33% Y/Y ($32M beat).
• Adjusted EBITDA +46% Y/Y to $210M.
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.06 ($0.03 beat).
• FY25 adj. revenue $3.27B ($35M raise). https://t.co/jTjBlbf8dd
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Hidden Value Gems
European banks outperforming Mag 7 since 2023. I guess the takeaways are:
1⃣ Valuation matters.
2⃣ Be careful when investing in something highly popular. https://t.co/5J7Icbw53F
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App Economy Insights
Spotted on @theallinpod! 👀🙌 https://t.co/3ahXl1JbNn
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Quiver Quantitative
Look at this.
We recently saw a US Senator buying up large amounts of stock in European companies.
$EZU has now risen 18% since we posted this report.
The market is down 6% over the same period. https://t.co/Hcb5jCJWX6
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Investing visuals
If you had bought $SOFI at its IPO price, you would now be breakeven.
Meanwhile, their membership base has grown from 1 million to 10 million. https://t.co/lIfjIXp8G1
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AkhenOsiris
ZS 52wk high in this market...took something off but impressed
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Quiver Quantitative
Senator Mark Kelly just said:
"Which members of Congress and Administration officials are getting rich off stock trades while their constituents watch their 401Ks suffer?
I don't trade stocks and neither should they. It’s time to ban it." https://t.co/Ej498L7THd
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soken
RT @CuriosidadesEU: Arte em movimento. https://t.co/fSPf352Fe7
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