sclojure | Unsorted

Telegram-канал sclojure - Offshore

4

https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09

Subscribe to a channel

Offshore

Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨Major gains on insider purchases by director at $RNAC

🔹 Oct 2: ~$95.8k purchase
🔹 Oct 3: ~$2.4M purchase
🔹 Oct 4: ~$1.83M purchase

📈 $RNAC stock is up ~34% since the buying started https://t.co/tasVnmGSWI
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Element Fleet $EFN CN

Thesis: Element Fleet's capital-light model and strong earnings growth potential make it a robust play in the fleet management space.

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/8O8vIENjqB
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Librarian Capital
Your periodic reminder that posting your stockpicks (and going on podcasts) can be harmful to returns

Nick Sleep: "Evangelism is not healthy"

An investor doing so may "subconsciously rob himself of his objectivity and the option to change his mind"

(Nomad letters, 2004)

PS. Why talking abut stock picks is bad. "Evangelism is not healthy". "In publicly disclosing his stock picking commitments, does the investemnt mgmr. subtly and no doubt subconsciously rob himself of objectivity and the option to change his mind?". Nick Sleep won't like FinTwit! https://t.co/HqEr5YBIt8
- Librarian Capital
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #13 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
Artemis Finds / Artisan Partners / Bonsai Partners / Broyhill AM / Clearbridge / Cooper Investors / Guinness GI / Harding Loevner / Hardman Johnston / Harris Associates / McElvaine Value Fund / Orbis / Pender / TCW / Third Point / YCG Investments
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
~6 months ago I suggested that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment at $446💵

Since then, $MSCI shares have rallied +35% ✅

As I stated in my analysis:

“Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety

Today at $446💵 my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment”

#stocks #investing

A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.33x
•10-Year Mean: 34.93x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.64%
•10-Year Mean: 3.37%

As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $519.31M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.50B

$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.80x FFO Interest Coverate

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%

RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)

*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt

$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $913.36M
•2023: $2,528.92M
•CAGR: 10.72%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1,213.27M
•CAGR: 15.75%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.60M

By reducing its shares outstanding 34.2%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51.9% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 53.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 44.6%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 14.67% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.67%) required growth rate:

2024E: $14.84 (9.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.07 (15.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (13.6% YoY)

$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $620.48💵 … ~14.6% CAGR

31x P/E: $601.09💵 … ~13.2% CAGR

30x P/E: $581.70💵 … ~11.9% CAGR

29x P/E: $562.31💵 … ~10.5% CAGR

28x P/E: $542.92💵 … ~9.1% CAGR

As you can see, $MSCI appears to have double-digit return potential if we assume >29x earnings, a level of fundamental support (first green line in P/E chart) & a level below its 10-year average multiple of 34.93x

Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety

Today at $446💵 my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment

Knowing that $MSCI could trade down a bit more (closer to 25x as you’ll see in second green line in P/E chart) I would piece into the position

In other words, if I wanted to allocate 5% to $MSCI, I’d likely look to initiate a 3% - 3.5% allocation & leave room to add more & make it 5% if we see $MSCI trade between $380💵 - $400💵

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Stock Analysis Compilation
Diamond Hill on Starbucks $SBUX US

Thesis: Starbucks’ global scale, resilient earnings growth, and undervaluation in China make it an attractive investment opportunity.

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/BvRMc1fVUN
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Librarian Capital
"Spirax: Focus on Self-Help, Lower for Longer After Investor Day?"

The market has reacted badly to last week’s $SPX investor day, but we think the pessimism is overblown

https://t.co/pk4drk4hFr https://t.co/gAZQRC9Yz0
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Librarian Capital
A stock crashing no more proof of someone on Fintwit being a promoter than a patient dying is proof of a doctor not being medically trained

The work is hard; bad things happen
Instead of outcomes, measure quality of the work

That's not to say Fintwit doesn't have many promoters
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
ROIC to measure Capital Allocation?

Why you should be careful (Tutorial) https://t.co/qf7DRFvCt7
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Ahmad Jivraj
Joel Greenblatt returned 40% per year for 20 years...
Here's is how he evaluates cash on the balance sheet

Let's assume a company has $5/share in cash on it's balance sheet. https://t.co/UFvoZYCi8r
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #104 https://t.co/GtDffzmFhf
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Librarian Capital
At soon-to-be-private Hargreaves Lansdown $HL, interest income ("Cash") has been their largest revenue line for two years in a row

HL business model is arguably sticky with mutual funds, ISAs, older & richer customers etc. https://t.co/sfGO7eQ8Rs
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Fujitsu $6702 JP

Thesis: Fujitsu’s push towards digitizing Japan’s economy and its shareholder-friendly initiatives position it for strong future profitability.

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/8RIbLCjtF8
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Hidden Value Gems
Interesting analysis: Price hikes was the key driver for like-for-like growth at Luxury Goods post COVID.

But now high prices have become a headwind with many brands introducing cheaper products, driving average price down.

"Q2 saw a 3% decline in the average selling price of luxury products and a 6% decline in the price of handbags, according to Bernstein."

"Not all brands will be equally affected. Hermès, which combined restraint with desirability, managed to push through an 8 to 9% increase in the first two months of the year."
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Librarian Capital
Spirax $SPX has grown EBIT more than Rightmove $RMV over the past 8 years, though ~½ the difference materialized in 2016 when GBP fell (after EU referendum), and the gap will narrow further in 2024

(We hold both, with more SPX than RMV) https://t.co/CFEniuqA93

Rightmove $RMV vs. Spirax $SPX: Which company's products are more mission-critical to customers?
- Rightmove
- Spirax
- Librarian Capital
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

App Economy Insights
Teens Survey by Piper Sandlers (Fall 2024):

👫 14K US teens surveyed
💰 Spending up 6% Y/Y

Insights:
📱 87% own an iPhone
👟 Nike shed 4pp in footwear
🤳 TikTok's lead expands +2pp
🍗 Chick-fil-A tops restaurants
🍿 Netflix & YouTube still far ahead https://t.co/NGhO42YTMu
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Librarian Capital
Arthur Gallagher $AJG - look at that straight line ... https://t.co/oJK5Lh747T
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

App Economy Insights
💣 US DOJ considers a Google break-up.

🚫 Limiting default search deals
🤖 Restrictions on AI-related products
🔓 Opening up APIs and ranking signals
🔎 Splitting Chrome and Android from Search

$GOOG We cover the possible impact here.👇
https://t.co/vcMGNBzlPM
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Stock Analysis Compilation
Silver Ring Value Partners on International Game Technology $IGT US

Thesis: IGT's stable lottery business, significant cash reserves, and attractive dividend yield offer a compelling undervalued opportunity, with limited downside risk.

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/LEGLW1C4Qi
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $STTK has risen another 10% this morning, now up 22% since their CEO's stock purchase on Monday

🚨Insider Trading Alert

Shattuck Labs Inc, $STTK, sees large insider buy:

🔹CEO: ~$44,220 purchase on Oct 7
🔹Largest insider purchase by the CEO in 3+ years

Shares are up 14.16% today since the purchase https://t.co/MNxQ02E2zA
- Insider Radar
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Investing visuals
Palantir $PLTR is on track to becoming a $100 billion company 🔥

But with sky-high expectations and a stretched valuation, the question is: can $PLTR live up to it? What do you think?👇 https://t.co/8uKuZU6D03
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Quiver Quantitative
WTF.

We recently posted this report on a suspicious purchase of Arcadium Lithium stock by a US Senator.

It was just announced that another mining company is in talks to acquire Arcadium.

The stock has skyrocketed, up 30% this morning. https://t.co/WoZ050yfQa
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Quiver Quantitative
🚨 BREAKING: Marjorie Taylor Greene just disclosed up to $120K of new stock purchases.

Purchases include:

- Applied Materials, $AMAT
- ASML Holdings, $ASML
- Lam Research, $LRCX
- Dell
- JP Morgan
- Costco

Full trade list up on the Quiver site. https://t.co/aXOnMbVo3d
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
7 Quality Stocks Trading <peg 2.25* 💵

🖨️ asml holding $asml (2.19x)

✈️ booking holdings $bkng (2.03x)

🤖 nvidia $nvda (1.78x)

💸 paypal $pypl (1.71x)

📸 meta platforms $meta (1.68x)

🩻 elevance health $elv (1.42x)

🖱️ alphabet $goog (1.32x)

#stocks #investing

*finviz
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Startup Archive
Twitter founder Jack Dorsey on the 12 habits that will make you a better leader

Jack reads the following from The Score Takes Care of Itself by former 49ers coach Bill Walsh:

1. Be yourself. “You must be the best version of yourself that you can be... If you’re faking it, you’ll be found out.”
2. Be committed to excellence. “At all times, in all ways, your focus must be on doing things at the highest possible level.”
3. Be positive. “There is a constructive place for censure and highlighting negative aspects of a situation, but too often it is done simply to vent and creates a barrier between you and others.”
4. Be prepared. “Good luck is a product of good planning.”
5. Be detail-oriented. “Organizational excellence evolves from the perfection of details relevant to performance and production.”
6. Be organized. “You must think clearly with a disciplined mind, especially in regard to the most efficient and productive use of time and resources.”
7. Be accountable. “Excuse making is contagious. Answerability starts with you. If you make excuses so will those around you.”
8. Be near-sighted and far-sighted. “Keep everything in perspective while simultaneously concentrating fully on the task at hand… All efforts and plans should be considered not only in terms of short-run effect, but also in terms of how they impact the organization long term.”
9. Be fair. “I believe your value system is as important to success as your expertise… Be clear in your own mind as to what you stand for. And then stand up for it.”
10. Be firm. “I would not budge one inch on my core values, standards, and principles.”
11. Be flexible. “Consistency is crucial, but you must be quick to adjust to new challenges that defy the old solutions.”
12. Believe in yourself. “To a large degree, a leader must ‘sell’ himself to the team. This is impossible unless you exhibit self-confidence.”
13. Be a leader (bonus). “You must know where you’re going and how you intend to get there... You must be able to inspire and motivate through teaching people how to execute their jobs at the highest level. You must care about people and help those people care about one another and the team’s goals. And you must never second-guess yourself on decisions you make with integrity, intelligence, and a team-first attitude.”

Jack also walks through the 10 things leaders SHOULD NOT do:

1. Exhibit patience, paralyzing patience.
2. Engage in delegating—massive delegating—or conversely, engage in too little delegating.
3. Act in a tedious, overly cautious manner.
4. Become best buddies with certain employees.
5. Spend excessive amounts of time socializing with superiors or subordinates.
6. Fail to continue hard-nosed performance evaluations of longtime—”tenured”—staff members, the ones most likely to go on cruise control, to relax.
7. Fail to actively participate in efforts to appraise and acquire new hires.
8. Trust others to carry out your fundamental duties.
9. Find ways to get out from under the responsibilities of your position, to move accountability from yourself to others—the blame game.
10. Promote an organizational environment that is comfortable and laid-back in the misbelief that the workplace should be fun, lighthearted, and free from appropriate levels of tension and urgency.

And lastly, he shares six points from how General Patton ran his army during World War I:

1. Remember that praise is more valuable than blame
2. Use every means before and after combat to tell troops what they’re going to do and what they have done
3. Discipline is based on pride in the profession of arms, on meticulous attention to details, and on mutual respect and confidence
4. Officers must assert themselves by example and by voice
5. General officers must be seen in the front line during action
6. There’s a tendency for the chain of command to overload junior officers by excessive requirements in the way of training and reports

Video source: @ycombinator (2013)
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Stock Analysis Compilation
Bonhoeffer Fund on Vistry $VTY LN

Thesis: Vistry’s partnership model and strong operational growth make it an attractive homebuilder with significant upside potential

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/3DQBhiBFaW
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Librarian Capital
"US weighs Google break-up in landmark antitrust case" (WSJ)

"Potential remedy set out by DoJ on Tue"
"Shares of $GOOG were little changed"
"Final witness lists to be filed by 20-Dec"
Judge aims to hand down decision by Aug-25

US weighs Google break-up in landmark antitrust case https://t.co/MiGvPSCTPY
- FT Technology News
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Capital Employed
Interesting idea from @RohanSoor on Boat Rocker Media $TSX.BRMI

Trades below net cash with valuable B/S assets despite historical profitability, a lower-risk content strategy going forward, and potential buybacks.

Full write-up here 👇

https://t.co/jXeHNDvac9
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Hidden Value Gems
What do you think about Vistry?

$VTY.L
- A one-off, buy
- A serious issue, sell
- Not involved
- Still doing work
tweet

Читать полностью…

Offshore

Capital Employed
Interesting read from Seraya Investment letter.

'The great China rally of late September – still underway – may well become one of the great ‘positioning unwinds’ of the decade.'

https://t.co/2asJO9a2Qh?
tweet

Читать полностью…
Subscribe to a channel