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A place for the Singapore investment community to share information and updates
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New York Fed President John Williams: Monetary policy continues to be restrictive
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The Edge Singapore
US stocks turn volatile as risk free rate hit 2024 high https://t.co/UTLaHOSO1y
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US stocks turn volatile as risk free rate hit 2024 high
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Dollar set for third straight weekly gain after inflation data, Fed rate cut
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The Business Times (Youtube)
Singapore government addresses NRIC privacy concerns amid public anxiety
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The Business Times (Youtube)
Market Focus Daily: Friday, December 20, 2024
SK Hynix completes deal (https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/telcos-media-tech/sk-hynix-completes-deal-us958-million-us-chips-grant-loan) for US$958 million in US chips grant, loan; Indonesia weighs deep cuts to nickel (https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/indonesia-weighs-deep-cuts-nickel-mining-boost-prices) mining to boost prices; China’s hottest stock, Pop Mart, (https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/lifestyle/chinas-hottest-stock-pop-mart-rockets-370-craze-collectibles) rockets 370% on craze for collectibles.
Synopsis: Market Focus Daily is a closing bell roundup by The Business Times that looks at the day’s market movements and news from Singapore and the region.
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House Speaker Johnson's future depends on whether Trump expresses support for him: Axios' Mike Allen
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
Michter’s Distillery's Joe Magliocco on the threat of tariffs, state of spirits industry
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
CFRA: It's time to take a pause on Nike
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
Short: The current shutdown drama foreshadows the difficulties ahead in 2025
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The Edge Singapore
FLCT’s manager appoints Ng Wah Keong as new CFO https://t.co/x64pLnjRv1
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There is a fair bit of volatility in the markets these few days. I will try to explain what I think it is and what might happen.
As most know, Jerome Powell cut interest rate on Wednesday night by 25 basis points but based on what was said, it indicates lesser rate cuts. The whole presentation did not present a clear message and gives an impression that those voting are more worried about recession.
Markets do not like uncertainty and the prospect of higher rates, will eventually affect the economy, profit margins, earnings per share, current fixed income securities in the market.
Markets are forward looking and therefore start pricing in these new pieces of information.
Prior to key events such as FOMC meeting, the markets are pretty hedged most of the time. This means that those who are worried about the performance of their portfolio would have bought put or insurance protection in one way or other. Market dealers are the people on the other side selling these protection. Their job (as they say) is to remain market neutral and so would hedge their (market makers) positions accordingly.
When the event risk is cleared (the Fed message is conducive to the market), the portfolio managers sell off their puts. The market makers, taking the other side of the trade, don't have to hedge so much, would buy back their short SP500 position.
Options market is getting bigger and bigger and this Dec will be one of the biggest options expiry ever.
When the market dealers buy back the short position, the market will shoot up.
Options amplified the move.
After that, usually the market is pinned. Pinning means you see the SP500 price movement to be very small. like one day up 0.2%, or down 0.3%. The market will be pinned close to the highest demand for call options. For example 6050. If no external force, the market cannot go higher, if the market gets sell down, there is a natural force (by the market makers) that will buy up those sell down.
Markets won't go down and won't go up. Pinned.
These natural balancing forces happen during positive Gamma.
But that is not what we see in this December.
During this December, the event was not what the market anticipated. This is what the put protection is for.
The market went lower.
If the market goes below a certain strike prices, instead of positive Gamma, we faced negative Gamma.
In a negative Gamma regime, the force is not balancing. When the market goes down, more people buy puts, when more people buy puts, the market maker short more (instead of buy the futures) to hedge their position.
Remember what happen to Gamestop? this is the reverse game stop.
Perhaps the clearest case study is during Covid period. In a short span of one option expiry window 20 Feb 20 , the market went down swiftly in one direction... until the next option expiry window in 20 Mar 20. Then, with positive news and no more options forces, markets can take off in Mar 20.
I have not check my sources, but I got a feeeling we are in this regime. We seen one more day of red despite starting green yesterday, and if we look at the futures, it does not look good.
So when will all this stop?
When options expire.
So when is the next major options expiry? Tonight and end of the year.
But what will happen next week? I don't know.
We will lose these forces, but the markets are always pricing in new information and if there are new positive information, markets are free to correct upwards. But if there are even more negative news, markets will go down.
So WTF Kyith how is this suppose to help me?
Well it is to kind of explain what we could be seeing so that it looks logically to you. But what you are suppose to be doing is based on your investment strategy or your financial plan. That I cannot guide you.Some of your time frames are different.
They always say the end of the year got Santa Rally because forces such as what I talked about are set up in such a way at the end of the year. The difference is that year by year, the environment context is different.
CNBC Television (Youtube)
Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected
CNBC’s Rick Santelli joins 'Squawk Box' to break down the November PCE inflation data.
CNBC Television (Youtube)
New York Fed President John Williams: The economy is in a very good place
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
Don't see any major media consolidation in 2025, says LightShed's Rich Greenfield
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What I have Learned from CapitaLand Ascott Trust’s Presentation
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
Sen. Mullin on government funding fight: A short-term clean CR is probably the closest path forward
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Key Highlights from EC World REIT’s Q3 and 9M FY2024 Results
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The Business Times (Youtube)
Singapore government addresses NRIC privacy concerns amid public anxiety
At a joint press briefing on Thu (Dec 19), the government apologised for policy missteps regarding the use of NRIC numbers on the BizFile portal, and said that revamps were in place to balance transparency and privacy.
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos on 2025 outlook: Out of the cyclical storm, into the policy fog
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Italy fines OpenAI 15 million euros over privacy rules breach
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/italy-fines-openai-over-chatgpt-privacy-rules-breach-4819041
CNBC Television (Youtube)
Why Nike is making Tiffany McGhee's holiday "nice" list
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Swiss bank watchdog blundered on Credit Suisse, report finds
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
Nike is setting a very low bar for its turnaround plan, says TD Cowen's John Kernan
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FLCT’s manager appoints Ng Wah Keong as new CFO
Read: https://link.theedgesingapore.com/cdCB4Ne78uqsmXZv6
Follow us on: @theedgesg
By right, this Dec FOMC is suppose to a market friendly message, all hedges go off, markets rally nicely in december. Then after options expiry, we have a good correction of those 10-15% in Jan.
So now like that what happen?
I don't know man. This is as far as I know liao.
Hope you find this entertaining or useful.
I need to get back to my work. Sian.