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A place for the Singapore investment community to share information, research and updates.
OUE REIT divests Lippo Plaza Shanghai for $357.4 mil; all remaining assets in Singapore
Read: https://link.theedgesingapore.com/zJnJy1E7Y5oHx4JC8
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected
CNBC’s Rick Santelli joins 'Squawk Box' to break down the November PCE inflation data.
CNBC Television (Youtube)
New York Fed President John Williams: The economy is in a very good place
CNBC’s Steve Liesman and New York Fed President John Williams join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, state of the economy, 2025 outlook, and more.
CNBC Television (Youtube)
Don't see any major media consolidation in 2025, says LightShed's Rich Greenfield
Rich Greenfield, LightShed Partners partner and co-founder, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the two live Christmas day NFL games by Netflix, impact on advertising and subscriber growth, state of the streaming industry, M&A outlook, fate of TikTok, and more.
What I have Learned from CapitaLand Ascott Trust’s Presentation
https://www.thesingaporeaninvestor.sg/2024/11/12/what-i-have-learned-from-capitaland-ascott-trusts-presentation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-i-have-learned-from-capitaland-ascott-trusts-presentation
CNBC Television (Youtube)
Sen. Mullin on government funding fight: A short-term clean CR is probably the closest path forward
Sen. MarkWayne Mullin (R-Okla.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of negotiations on Congress to avert a government shutdown, whether a bipartisan bill can be reached to fund the government, and more.
Key Highlights from EC World REIT’s Q3 and 9M FY2024 Results
https://www.thesingaporeaninvestor.sg/2024/11/12/key-highlights-from-ec-world-reits-q3-and-9m-fy2024-results/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=key-highlights-from-ec-world-reits-q3-and-9m-fy2024-results
3 Singapore REITs that Invest Solely in European Properties
https://www.thesingaporeaninvestor.sg/2024/11/26/3-singapore-reits-that-invest-solely-in-european-properties/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=3-singapore-reits-that-invest-solely-in-european-properties
The Business Times (Youtube)
Singapore government addresses NRIC privacy concerns amid public anxiety
At a joint press briefing on Thu (Dec 19), the government apologised for policy missteps regarding the use of NRIC numbers on the BizFile portal, and said that revamps were in place to balance transparency and privacy.
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos on 2025 outlook: Out of the cyclical storm, into the policy fog
Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management chief market strategist for Americas, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, what to make of the recent volatility, impact of the Fed's interest rate decision, 2025 outlook, and more.
Italy fines OpenAI 15 million euros over privacy rules breach
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/italy-fines-openai-over-chatgpt-privacy-rules-breach-4819041
CNBC Television (Youtube)
Why Nike is making Tiffany McGhee's holiday "nice" list
Pivotal Advisors' Tiffany McGhee discusses the potential for more market volatility going into the new year, following the Fed's hawkish shift and shutdown drama in Washington, plus highlights why she believes Nike is attractive post-earnings.
Swiss bank watchdog blundered on Credit Suisse, report finds
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/swiss-bank-watchdog-blundered-credit-suisse-report-finds
CNBC Television (Youtube)
Nike is setting a very low bar for its turnaround plan, says TD Cowen's John Kernan
John Kernan, TD Cowen managing director and retail analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Nike's turnaround plan, the challenges facing new CEO Elliott Hill, and more.
FLCT’s manager appoints Ng Wah Keong as new CFO
Read: https://link.theedgesingapore.com/cdCB4Ne78uqsmXZv6
Follow us on: @theedgesg
CNBC Television (Youtube)
New York Fed President John Williams: Monetary policy continues to be restrictive
CNBC’s Steve Liesman and New York Fed President John Williams join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, state of the economy, 2025 outlook, and more.
The Edge Singapore
US stocks turn volatile as risk free rate hit 2024 high https://t.co/UTLaHOSO1y
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
New Hampshire Gov. Sununu: Don't mind that Elon Musk is in the middle of government funding fight
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the government funding fight, whether states are prepared in the event of a government shutdown, and more.
US stocks turn volatile as risk free rate hit 2024 high
Read: https://link.theedgesingapore.com/QHVTARyptUSgG1mE8
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Dollar set for third straight weekly gain after inflation data, Fed rate cut
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/dollar-set-third-straight-weekly-gain-after-inflation-data-fed-rate-cut-4818006
CNBC Television (Youtube)
Surprised how much influence Elon Musk and Trump already have on government: Tenacity's Ben Narasin
Ben Narasin, Tenacity Venture Capital founder, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the influence of Elon Musk in the incoming Trump administration, Musk's impact on D.C. policy, long-term relationship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, and more.
United Hampshire US REIT: What You Need to Know about the Necessity Retail REIT
https://www.thesingaporeaninvestor.sg/2024/11/18/united-hampshire-us-reit-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-necessity-retail-reit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=united-hampshire-us-reit-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-necessity-retail-reit
The Business Times (Youtube)
Singapore government addresses NRIC privacy concerns amid public anxiety
At a joint press briefing on Thu (Dec 19), the government apologised for policy missteps regarding the use of NRIC numbers on the BizFile portal, and said that revamps were in place to balance transparency and privacy.
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The Business Times (Youtube)
Market Focus Daily: Friday, December 20, 2024
SK Hynix completes deal (https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/telcos-media-tech/sk-hynix-completes-deal-us958-million-us-chips-grant-loan) for US$958 million in US chips grant, loan; Indonesia weighs deep cuts to nickel (https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/indonesia-weighs-deep-cuts-nickel-mining-boost-prices) mining to boost prices; China’s hottest stock, Pop Mart, (https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/lifestyle/chinas-hottest-stock-pop-mart-rockets-370-craze-collectibles) rockets 370% on craze for collectibles.
Synopsis: Market Focus Daily is a closing bell roundup by The Business Times that looks at the day’s market movements and news from Singapore and the region.
Written and hosted by: Emily Liu (emilyliu@sph.com.sg (mailto:emilyliu@sph.com.sg) )
Recording engineer: Chai Pei Chieh
Produced and edited by: Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
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CNBC Television (Youtube)
House Speaker Johnson's future depends on whether Trump expresses support for him: Axios' Mike Allen
Axios co-founder Mike Allen joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of negotiations for a government funding bill, whether a bipartisan deal can be reached to avert a government shutdown, fate of House Speaker Mike Johnson, influence of Elon Musk, and more.
CNBC Television (Youtube)
Michter’s Distillery's Joe Magliocco on the threat of tariffs, state of spirits industry
Joe Magliocco, Michter’s Distillery president and Chatham Imports president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the threat of tariffs on U.S. distillers, state of the spirits industry, changes in consumer behavior, and more.
CNBC Television (Youtube)
CFRA: It's time to take a pause on Nike
CFRA analyst Zachary Warring discusses Nike's latest results, and the tough road ahead laid out by new CEO Elliott Hill to turn the business around.
CNBC Television (Youtube)
Short: The current shutdown drama foreshadows the difficulties ahead in 2025
Marc Short, former White House legislative affairs director and chief of staff to Vice President Pence, says this week's shutdown drama in Congress foreshadows how hard it will be to pass any meaningful tax legislation next year.
The Edge Singapore
FLCT’s manager appoints Ng Wah Keong as new CFO https://t.co/x64pLnjRv1
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There is a fair bit of volatility in the markets these few days. I will try to explain what I think it is and what might happen.
As most know, Jerome Powell cut interest rate on Wednesday night by 25 basis points but based on what was said, it indicates lesser rate cuts. The whole presentation did not present a clear message and gives an impression that those voting are more worried about recession.
Markets do not like uncertainty and the prospect of higher rates, will eventually affect the economy, profit margins, earnings per share, current fixed income securities in the market.
Markets are forward looking and therefore start pricing in these new pieces of information.
Prior to key events such as FOMC meeting, the markets are pretty hedged most of the time. This means that those who are worried about the performance of their portfolio would have bought put or insurance protection in one way or other. Market dealers are the people on the other side selling these protection. Their job (as they say) is to remain market neutral and so would hedge their (market makers) positions accordingly.
When the event risk is cleared (the Fed message is conducive to the market), the portfolio managers sell off their puts. The market makers, taking the other side of the trade, don't have to hedge so much, would buy back their short SP500 position.
Options market is getting bigger and bigger and this Dec will be one of the biggest options expiry ever.
When the market dealers buy back the short position, the market will shoot up.
Options amplified the move.
After that, usually the market is pinned. Pinning means you see the SP500 price movement to be very small. like one day up 0.2%, or down 0.3%. The market will be pinned close to the highest demand for call options. For example 6050. If no external force, the market cannot go higher, if the market gets sell down, there is a natural force (by the market makers) that will buy up those sell down.
Markets won't go down and won't go up. Pinned.
These natural balancing forces happen during positive Gamma.
But that is not what we see in this December.
During this December, the event was not what the market anticipated. This is what the put protection is for.
The market went lower.
If the market goes below a certain strike prices, instead of positive Gamma, we faced negative Gamma.
In a negative Gamma regime, the force is not balancing. When the market goes down, more people buy puts, when more people buy puts, the market maker short more (instead of buy the futures) to hedge their position.
Remember what happen to Gamestop? this is the reverse game stop.
Perhaps the clearest case study is during Covid period. In a short span of one option expiry window 20 Feb 20 , the market went down swiftly in one direction... until the next option expiry window in 20 Mar 20. Then, with positive news and no more options forces, markets can take off in Mar 20.
I have not check my sources, but I got a feeeling we are in this regime. We seen one more day of red despite starting green yesterday, and if we look at the futures, it does not look good.
So when will all this stop?
When options expire.
So when is the next major options expiry? Tonight and end of the year.
But what will happen next week? I don't know.
We will lose these forces, but the markets are always pricing in new information and if there are new positive information, markets are free to correct upwards. But if there are even more negative news, markets will go down.
So WTF Kyith how is this suppose to help me?
Well it is to kind of explain what we could be seeing so that it looks logically to you. But what you are suppose to be doing is based on your investment strategy or your financial plan. That I cannot guide you.Some of your time frames are different.
They always say the end of the year got Santa Rally because forces such as what I talked about are set up in such a way at the end of the year. The difference is that year by year, the environment context is different.