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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
Replugging yesterday piece. Share it if you like it.
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https://twitter.com/moneycontrolcom/status/1603720556452331520?t=D8yPMQKbI-THd8e96JQayA&s=35
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https://twitter.com/_anujsinghal/status/1600864437753499648?t=EwY65C0KY5XhwWY2wgyUaw&s=35
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SIGNS OF GLOBAL CORRECTION
Nasdaq showing signs of entering fresh correction
Most of the good news from elections priced in
Market’s focus will now be on next week’s FOMC meet
Market’s visibility of terminal rate has been disturbed
Possible to see Nifty test the 20 DEMA
GLOBAL CUES
Brent, Dollar and Bond yield all in favour
Fresh geopolitical risks from Russia-Ukraine
China to make efforts for attracting FDI
Need to see how Chinese markets move
China market has far more valuation comfort
Will funds shift from India to China?
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty closed below 10 DEMA after defending it for 2 days
Market’s texture in near-term is now “Sell on rally”
Nifty may now slip to 20 DEMA zone of 18,440
Stop loss for shorts will be yesterday’s high of 18,668
Short trade will have conviction only if Bank Nifty weakens
18600, 18650 and 18700 Call
18600, 18700 and 18650 Put
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty again defended its 10 DEMA of 43,040
Bank Nifty’s 20 DEMA placed at 42,627
No trade zone for Bank Nifty currently
Bank Nifty in broad range of 42,800-43,300
Need to see behaviour of HDFC Bank today
GLOBAL WORRY VS LOCAL CHEER
US market down but exit polls good for mkt
All eyes now on tomorrow’s monetary policy
China market down, may help Indian mkt
Bank Nifty may outperform vs Nifty now on
Fin Nifty weekly expiry today
GLOBAL CUES
Interest rate worries are back in the US
Nasdaq has started to underperform again
Old economy stocks may outperform again
Big question remains if Nasdaq has reversed
Brent’s decline augurs very well for Bank Nifty
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s near-term range defined by yesterday’s high and low
Yesterday’s low: 18,591 and high: 18,728
For buy trades, 18,591 is Stop loss
For short trades, 18,728 is Stop loss
Buy zone for Nifty 18,600-18,640
Need to see Nifty IT’s behaviour after gap down
If Nifty IT recovers, Nifty will rally
For positional longs, 18,550 remains Lakshman Rekha
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty may test all-time highs soon
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 43,200
Accumulate zone for Bank Nifty at 43,000-43,100
For Bank Nifty longs, stop loss now at 42,800
Fin Nifty’s weekly expiry today
BIG WEEK FOR MARKETS
Exit polls of Gujarat today
RBI MPC decision on Wednesday
Gujarat results and weekly expiry on Thursday
Market’s structure remains “Buy on dips”
Mid and Small Caps likely to extend gains
GLOBAL CUES
Friday’s reaction to jobs data very positive
Inflation worries no longer hurting market
Even in US, texture now is “Buy on dips”
10-year Bond yield in US gives up all gains
Brent crude prices inch up
China’s reopening could help commodity stocks
Global cues positive for IT, negative for Banks
NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 18700, 18750 and 18800 Call))
Major Call writing visible at 18,700-18,800
First resistance for Nifty at 18,815
Big resistance for Nifty at 18,900
Nifty’s first support level at 18,600
Big support for Nifty at 18,550
Nifty may continue to outperform Bank Nifty
Broader markets better to trade than Index
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Straddle writing seen at 43,000
43,000 Call and Put combined prem at Rs 540
Bank Nifty has wide range of 42,500-43,500
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 42,800
Sell zone for Bank Nifty at 43,200
THE FRIDAY FACTOR
Sharp recovery in US after first hour fall
The big trade in India now remains in IT
PB Fintech’s block deal today will sail through
Bank Nifty may continue to underperform
Mid and Small Caps are in for a massive rally
GLOBAL CUES
US 10-year bond now below 20, 50 and 100 DMA
US 10-year bond yield can slip to 200 DMA of 3.25
US 10-year bond yield now at 3.54 vs peak of 4.34
Nasdaq closed above 100 DMA, next target 200 DMA
Nifty IT trading above all major moving averages
Brent crude has risen to $87/bbl
Nifty IT set to extend gains vs Bank Nifty
NIFTY OUTLOOK
18800, 18850 and 18900 Call
18800, 18500 and 18600 Put
Nifty’s first level to watch: 20 DEMA of 18,742
Nifty’s big support zone now at 50 DEMA of 18,620
Buying zone at 18,750-18,800
Stop loss for intra-day longs at 18,730
Stop loss for positional longs at 18,620
No thoughts of shorting till 18,620
Reliance and IT stocks should help Nifty
Bank Nifty may drag Nifty at highs
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Yesterday’s high was 43,515
Yesterday 43,500 was suggested as profit booking zone
43,500 now remains resistance for Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty is extremely overstretched
10 DEMA on Bank Nifty at 42,872
20 DEMA on Bank Nifty at 42,350
Fresh Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 42,800
Bank Nifty morning setup profit booking level: 43,500. Day's high: 43,515, now at 43,150!!!!
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SANTA JEROME POWELL!
Jerome Powell’s speech fuel massive rally
Nasdaq leads rally, cryptos join in
Market only focusing on moderation part of speech
Powell also said bigger question still is how much more hike
US markets are now back in bull market territory
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Yesterday, 18,700 Call writers were mauled
Today’s move will be about 18,800 Call writer
18,800 Call has 78 lakh OI, premium Rs 23
First move will be taking profit from longs
Bigger move possible if Nifty crosses 18,850
Today’s big move is likely in Nifty IT
Playing via IT stocks a better strategy today
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty may see profit taking at 43,500
Most things in markets are simple.
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EVENT DRIVEN MARKETS
GDP data in evening
Fed Chairman Powell to speak today
RBI policy next week
Gujarat polls end next week
Yesterday’s market action disappointing
GLOBAL CUES
US yield, Brent up, Dollar Index flat
On margin, global cues are negative
India has been ignoring weak global cues
Not many willing to pre-empt Powell speech
Powell’s speech last time led to big decline
TRADE SETUP
Cash Market Flows:
FII +1242 Cr
DII -744 Cr
FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy +340 Cr
Long +5000
Short +1400
FIIs in Index Futures
Long 73%
Short 27%
Nifty PCR at 1.27 vs 1.28
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Risk-reward not favourable for fresh buying
First base zone for Nifty at 18,550
Bigger support zone for Nifty at 18,450
Buying between 18,450-18,550 better strategy
Call writing has shifted to 18,700, premium Rs 27
If Nifty crosses 18,730, will lead to big rally
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Show 43,000 Call
Show 43,200 Call
Bank Nifty remains very strong
Bank Nifty not even testing 5 or 10 DEMA
FOMC: FEDERAL OPEN MOUTH COMMITTEE?
James Bullard says something Bullard would say
Market nervous about more rate hikes than expected
“Buy on dips” has worked out so far
Profit taking at all time high is perfectly normal
Mid and small caps have started a fresh rally
GLOBAL CUES
No major impact from Fed on Dollar or US bond yields
Marginal impact on Crude, up to $84/bbl
China’s pain is India’s gain, FII flows may pick up
Clear signs of ETF buying returning to India
TRADE SETUP
Cash Market Flows
FII +936 Cr
DII +88 Cr
Reliance saw delivery volume of Rs 1825 cr
FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy +1414 Cr
Long +15800
Short +700
FII Longs in Index Futures
Nov 24 77%
Nov 25 71%
Nov 28 73%
Nifty Put Call ratio at 1.28 vs 1.17
Intra-day Put Call ratio went to 1.45
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about 18,500 Put writer
18,500 Put has 1.05 cr Open Interest, prem Rs 50
First level to watch on Nifty is 18,450
Once again, first trade will be to Buy the dip
18,400-18,450 best add zone with 18,350 as stop
For positional longs, stop loss remains at 18,250
No thoughts of shorting till 18,250
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s first support at 42,800
Buying at 42,800 has worked so far
Stop loss for Bank Nifty longs at 42,500
No thoughts of shorting till 42,500
Fin Nifty expiry may have impact on Bank Nifty
Look at Nifty IT and IT stocks
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I say this because markets give you second dip on such days
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First trade has played out
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https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1603709035655532544?t=rxj4cgPY_WsWQ_FRjpumOg&s=35
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https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1603709035655532544?t=LbQ_M_TpviYH1b1IaaNluA&s=35
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Today, keep Nifty levels in mind but look at Bank Nifty as a trade. Its set to outperform Nifty
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https://twitter.com/moneycontrolcom/status/1598651392566362112?t=u5xFKFVvNlOuaTNWlBjBXQ&s=35
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What a move!!! Write this again: "Never short a dull market"
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Never short a dull market!!!
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Markets gave a full toss today
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Now traders should stay nimble and trail stop or book proft
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THE CHINA FACTOR
China’s pain is normally India’s gain
ETFs may again shift from China to India
Indian market closed at all-time highs
Crude’s decline, Dollar Index to help India
“Buy on dips” remains the only trade so far
GLOBAL CUES
India stands out as cleanest shirt in laundry
Indian market enjoying best of cues from global mkt
Crude, Dollar, US Bond yields and China all lower
China’s troubles will have impact on commodities
Low commodity prices extremely good for India
TRADE SETUP
Nifty futures at 133-point premium
FII long exposure near all-time high
Nifty Put call ratio at 1.17
FII cash volumes low but buying resumes
Need to see if ETFs chase India again
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to track 2 levels in first hour today
On Nifty spot, Friday low of 18445 important
On Nifty futures, SGX Nifty low will be key
First trade will be to buy with stop loss of 18,350
18,350-18,400 will be good zone to add to longs
If Nifty trades below 18,350, need to get out of longs
For positional longs, stop loss now up to 18,250
No idea of shorting till 18,250 is gone
Nifty IT will be the first Index to show reversal
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Massive Call writing at 43,000 on Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty faces resistance from 43,000-43,300
Buy zone for Bank Nifty will be at 42,800
Stop loss for Bank Nifty will be at 42,500
No idea of shorting till 42,500 is gone