HAPPY NEW YEAR!
First month of new year extremely important
Big cues ahead: Earnings, budget
2023 also big year for political cues
January gives indication of global fund flows
India vs China is going to remain a big theme
India has seen 2 back to back years of FII selling
Domestic liquidity will remain strong this year too
IMPORTANT CUES ((Instead of global))
Auto sales present a mixed bag
Inflation pressure will be seen in many sectors
Need to keep an eye on commodity cues
High commodity prices are negative for India macro
Need to see growth data of Banks this week
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Friday’s short setup worked well
Nifty set to open in a very strong support zone
Friday shorts should book profit on decline
Buying in 18,000-18,050 zone has worked
Stop loss for long trades will be at 17,967
Will revisit Nifty if it breaks 17,967
Profit booking zone for longs at 18,225-18,250
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains stronger index
Bank Nifty will offer good risk-reward today
Stop loss for Bank Nifty at 42,833
If 42,833 breaches, then need to wait
Below 42,833, buy zone will be around 42,600
42,394 is Lakshman Rekha for Bank Nifty
https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1608787355619725312?t=Tjgru64G60CfzcVD2Y1A-g&s=35
Читать полностью…LAST DAY OF 2022
Very strong rally in US
Indian market had already rallied big in last hour
Year-end factors playing out in most markets
Unlikely that market will see a big decline
Real trend for markets will emerge in Jan now
Bank Nifty is in powerful “Buy on dips” mode
Domestic economy stocks will outperform in near-term
GLOBAL CUES
Big relief rally in Nasdaq yesterday from 52-w low
Indian IT stocks may see some relief rally as well
Biggest theme globally remains Chinese opening
Metals Index is up 7% this week, within 2% of life high
If Metals Index crosses highs, can add another 10% fast
Auto and FMCG stocks may cool off on commodity rally
TRADE SETUP
Nifty Put Call ratio at 1.41
Nifty Bank rollover at 86%, Nifty at 79%
FII long exposure at 57% vs 77% in December
Nifty futures at 101 point premium
Bank Nifty futures at 124 point premium
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty likely to open around 20 DEMA of 18,273
Nifty’s 20 day SMA placed at 18,378
18,273-18,378 good zone to book profit
Aggressive traders can short with 18,380 as stop
No buy trade today in gap up
Buying must be done at 18,050-18,100 now
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty back above all moving averages
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 20 DEMA of 42,930
Profit booking zone for Bank Nifty at 43,500
42,400 now Lakshman Rekha for Bank Nifty bulls
Bank Nifty will hit new highs before Nifty
FEAR FACTOR GRIPS MARKET
Market is falling under its own weight
Covid was an excuse, not a reason
Market was overbought, now oversold
Big question remains if Nifty will fall to 200 DMA
Market’s texture has been “Sell on rally”
Normally such markets bottom out in intra-day fall
GLOBAL CUES: IMPACT ON INDIA
Nasdaq is within 4-5% of 52-w low
US 10-year yield has moved to 3.75
US yield had fallen to 3.4 in early December
Market is worried about terminal rate again
Midcaps and Small Caps butchered last week
Midcaps underperform in rising rates
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First rally will most likely be sold into
Too late to take any short positions now
Nifty is sitting at a major trendline support
At some point today, Nifty might see big rally
Today’s best strategy is to wait for panic
Today, levels do not matter, market action does
Whenever panic ends, buying with 50-point stop will work
Good chance to see market close in the green today
Need to monitor market breadth
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty still remains leader for market
Too late to take any short positions now
This month: Nifty down 5.1%, Bank Nifty down 3.6%
This year: Nifty up 2.6%, Bank Nifty up 17.5%
Any recovery in market will be led by Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty can easily rally 500 points on short covering
Again, wait for panic to end before buying
Have been on leave this week but the setup has been playing out beautifully if you had positional approach. Have a good day. See you all on Monday now.
Читать полностью…https://twitter.com/_anujsinghal/status/1608790656117506050?t=-IVf3wI1NQFSMIPqc8yM0g&s=35
Читать полностью…The setup has worked beautifully again. The call was simple: to short the gap up with stop loss
Читать полностью…WEAK CUES
US markets showing signs of fresh bear market
Nasdaq already back in bear zone, close to 52-w low
Back home, test of previous low is needed to check strength
Nifty has shown signs of halting at 10 DEMA
GLOBAL CUES
Fresh 52-w closing low for Nasdaq
US Bond yield heading back towards 4
Clear worries that rate hikes will continue in 2023
Financials may continue to outperform IT
Conflicting reports emerging on Chinese front
China theme may do well in 2023
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Show 18,100 Put
Show 18,000 Put
First level to watch: 18,068
18,068 was low on Dec 22 and yesterday also
Major support for Nifty: 17,967, this week’s low
If 17,967 breaks, a retest of last week low possible
Expiry today, be very cautious with trades
Massive short covering will happen above yesterday high
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Crucial zone for Bank Nifty: 42,400-42,500
If market recovers, Bank Nifty will lead it
Buying at 42,500 with stop of 42,394 can work
If 42,394 breaks, exit all long positions
Short on Bank Nifty only if 42,394 breaks
SOFT CUES
US markets fall in low volume trade
Indian market had priced in rally in US
US 10-year yield at 3.85, fear factor back
Back home, Nifty and Bank Nifty closed near highs
Today’s dip will test market’s texture once more
GLOBAL CUES
Chinese markets continue to do well
Macro China theme will still play out
Metal and commodity stocks may extend gains
Interest rate sensitives may underperform
Nasdaq close to 52-w low, bad for Indian IT
Midcaps and Small Caps may come under pressure
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s range for Nifty: 17,967-18,150
SGX Nifty indicating open in middle of range
No trade at market opening today
Buying near 18,000 and selling near 18,130 may work
Stop for longs at 17,967 and for shorts at 18,150
((Show Nifty 18,000 Call and Put here))
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has huge support at 42,400-42,500
Buying dip with 42,400 as stop should work
If 42,400 breaks, Bank Nifty will become weak
Bank Nifty remains leader for the bulls
Any recovery in market has to be led by Banks
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty likely to test 10 DEMA of 18,230
For today, buying any small dip will work
For day longs, 17,980 will be strict stop
Yesterday’s longs should book around 18,150
Today’s longs should book from 18,200-18,230
Fresh shorting only if Nifty breaks 17,950
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first trade on Bank Nifty is to book profit
42,820-42,900 is 10 and 20 DEMA zone for Bank Nifty
After profit booking, step aside and see how it moves
Fin Nifty weekly expiry today, keep an eye on HDFC twins
Today I am very happy. So many of you have tweeted about benefitting from morning commentary 🙏
Читать полностью…TRADE SETUP
Cash Market Flows:
FII -707 Cr
DII +3399 Cr
FIIs Sell 551 Cr in Index Futures
FIIs in Index Futures
Long -570
Short +6012
FIIs in Index Futures
Long 44%
Short 56%
Nifty Put Call Ratio at 0.72
THE 20 DMA BREAK
Nifty has broken below the 20 DMA
Most major indices also below 20 DMA
Signs that market has started a correction
On Friday, 2 rallies were brutally sold into
Global picture has become murky
GLOBAL CUES: IMPACT ON INDIA
Nasdaq has shown signs of testing previous lows
Nasdaq is the leader for world equity markets
Bond yield and Dollar Index still not too bad
Indian market will again have to deal with weak IT
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s texture is now “Sell on rally”
18300, 18,400 and 18500 Calls add 1.1 cr shares
18,300-18,350 will be good zone to short
Stop loss for short trades will be around 18,441
First support for Nifty at 50 DEMA of 18,200
Major support for Nifty at 50 DMA of 18,080
Below 18,000, Nifty will have a major breakdown
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty protected 20 DEMA on close
Bank Nifty not yet a short till it holds 20 DEMA
Alert: 20 DEMA on Bank Nifty at 43,157
No trade on Bank Nifty in 43,150-43,500 band
Trades on Bank Nifty only below 43,150 or above 43,500