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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
https://twitter.com/cnbc_awaaz/status/1618804107510423552?s=52&t=QaxXptXp7Hybp52R3aRQ9g
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https://twitter.com/CNBC_Awaaz/status/1616274991284367361?t=Bq_5shcnmqa1QnexeFvJtg&s=35
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https://twitter.com/CNBC_Awaaz/status/1615948132441018368?s=20&t=gkaT57NbGrdHQF5_oIPrFQ
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MARKET: AT CROSSROADS
Nifty at “make or break” zone
Weekly expiry today, volatility likely
Nifty, Bank Nifty had good follow up yesterday
HDFC Bank has shown signs of leadership
HDFC Bank within 5% of 52-week high
From Jan 10: HDFC Bk up 4.4%, ICICI up 1%
Very big consumption numbers lined up this week
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Fed officials will keep puncturing rallies
Market has called the bluff of Fed
Market believes terminal rate is near
Nasdaq stocks still outperforming in US
Indian IT stocks still have room for rally
China opening theme on metals to continue
Only global risk factor for India is commodity surge
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Show 18150, 18100 and 18000 Puts
Show 18200, 18100 and 18300 Calls
Nifty has seen heavy Put writing
No major Call writing on Nifty now
If Put writers get stuck, Nifty can fall
SGX indicating start around 20 DEMA of 18,090
Today’s texture is “Sell on rally”, stop of 18,200
Big rally likely if Nifty closes above 18,200
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank’s price move has changed texture
Bank Nifty still relatively weak
Bank Nifty’s 20 DEMA placed at 42,581
Highest Open Interest at 42,500 Call
Bank Nifty strength likely only above 42,600
Big rally on Bank Nifty above 42,641
good morning. Really sorry I miss out these days to put setup here
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MARKET: PING PONG CONTINUES
Indian market falling on its own cues
This month: Nifty IT up 2.3%, Nifty Bank down 2%
Market’s leadership has changed to IT + Metals
Nifty once again fell from 20 DEMA
Bank Nifty failed to rally despite HDFC Bank numbers
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq gains more, crosses 100 DMA
Nasdaq on its way to test 200 DMA
Nifty IT closed marginally above 200 DMA
Nifty IT is now “Buy on dips”
((Show dual window Nifty Bank and Nifty IT intra-day))
Metal stocks likely to extend gains further
Mid and small caps in for a big post budget rally
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty Yesterday Today
10 DEMA 17,980 17,958
20 DEMA 18,090 18,077
50 DEMA 18,115 18,103
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,800-17,850
Stop loss for long trades: 17,750
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,950-18,000
Stop loss for short trades: 18,077
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is now “Sell on rally”
Fin Nifty expiry today may have impact
HDFC Bank’s reaction to nos disappointing
ICICI Bank 40 rupees away from 200 DMA
Sell zone for Bank Nifty 42,250-42,350
Safe short zone for Bank Nifty at 42,450-42,500
Stop loss for short trades at 42,600
Sorry I forgot to put setup here
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Nifty respected first leg beautifully. Second leg started slightly lower than expected but that also played out 🙏
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BIG DAY TODAY
Weekly options expiry today
All-important US inflation data today
Institutions net sellers this month
East Asian markets showing big outperformance
Most market rallies only on short covering
Nifty repeatedly testing 17,800 level
Bank Nifty showed some respite yesterday
GLOBAL CUES
Markets going into inflation with long positions
Nasdaq again leading US markets
Nasdaq has now rallied 9% from Jan lows
US 10-year yield down to 3.54, Dollar at 102.8
Indian IT stocks have shown bottoming signs
China and metals remain unbroken theme
Indian market not falling due to global cues
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about 18,000 Call writer
18,000 Call Open Interest at 1.45 cr shares
Nifty’s 10 DEMA placed at 18,022
Nifty needs to cross 18,022 for big covering
Traders can sell Nifty at 17,950-18,000 with stop of 18,022
Big resistance for Nifty at 20 DEMA of 18,125
On downside, support remains at Dec low of 17,774
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,800-17,850
Traders can buy at 17,800-17850 with stop of 17,774
All positions should be closed at 3:30 today
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty protected Dec lows by 200 points
((Show 42,200, 42,100 and 42,000 Puts and 42,200, 42,300 and 42,100 Calls))
Big resistance for Bank Nifty today at 42,400-42,500
BANK NIFTY
50 DEMA 42,401
10 DEMA 42,550
20 DEMA 42,733
MARKET: GAME OF PING PONG
For 3 days, market has trapped option writers
Nifty is in broad 17,800-18,200 range
Selling near 18,200 and buying near 17,800 working
Stop loss of 17,774 for longs and 18,251 for shorts
Bigger move only if one of the 2 levels taken out
This month: FIIs sell Rs 10,125 cr, DIIs buy Rs 6,287 cr
Jerome Powell sticks to his script on inflation
GLOBAL CUES
Dollar’s weakness continues, Dollar Index at 103
USD-INR has corrected from 83.27 to 81.78
China reopening remains big theme, Alibaba up 4%
Stocks related to China will keep doing well
Metals Index corrected to 20 DMA, may rally today
Metals now the only secular theme in markets
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty has again halted at 20 DMA and 20 DEMA
Declining 20 DMA for Nifty, rallies will be suspect
First support for Nifty: 17,856
Big support for Nifty: 17,774
If Nifty defends 17,856 short covering is possible
If 17,856 goes, need to see whether 17,774 holds
17,774-17,856 is not a good zone to add shorts
Market still in “buy on dips” and “sell on rally”
Longs need to keep strict stop loss of 17,774
Nifty’s 20 week exponential moving average at 17,810
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty closed below 10, 20 and 50 DEMA
Bank Nifty has shown signs of weakness
This month: Nifty down 1%, Bank Nifty down 2.3%
Big question: Is Bank Nifty losing leadership?
ICICI Bank now down 10%, within 4-5% of 200 DMA
ICICI Bank needs to bottom out for Bank Nifty rally
Bank Nifty made 2023 low yesterday
26 Dec low of 41,569 now Lakshman Rekha
THANK GOD ITS FRIDAY
Market action not as bad as Index suggested
Big question is if Nifty has made a double bottom
Need to see behaviour of Bank Nifty today
Bank Nifty has led the fall in last 2 days
US jobs numbers suggest more rate hikes coming
Earnings season starts next week
GLOBAL CUES
US economy going through “silent hiring”
US mkt caught between rate hike and recession fear
China emerging as the cleanest play for 2023
Hang Seng has now rallied 45% in 2 months
This week: Hang Seng is up over 7%
Metal stocks may continue to rally for next few months
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Yesterday’s low of 17,892 higher than prev low of 17,774
Nifty not a positional short till 17,774 is intact
Shorts on Nifty are working on intra-day basis
On upside, resistance seen at 18,120
If Nifty crosses 18,120, can see big short covering
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty bounced 300 points from lows
Yesterday low of 42,298 now sacrosanct
On upside, 42,800 will now act as resistance
42,500 Put has seen huge build-up
Need to see price action in ICICI Bank
If ICICI Bank falls to 200 DMA, Bank Nifty can fall more
FIRST EXPIRY OF 2023
Market was positioned for Hawkish Fed
Global markets not too negative after minutes
Nifty has been in a range of 150-300 points
Buying near 18000 and selling near 18250 working
Yesterday, shorts worked, today longs may work
Bank Nifty could lead recovery today
IT stocks may see pressure due to Microsoft factor
Microsoft CEO sees short term pressure for IT
GLOBAL CUES
Crude down, Bond yields down, Dollar Index down
All cues point to an algo trade today
Algo trade: Short IT, Buy Bank stocks
Bank Nifty likely to outperform Nifty today
Investors must add Gold, Silver in 2023 portfolio
China theme intact, Metals still have more rally left
TRADE SETUP
Institutional Flows
Institutions net sold 1847cr, highest since 11-Oct-22
FII in FNO
a. Index Futures
Longs -5457
Shorts +22046
FII positioning
Longs 36%
Shorts 64%
FIIs in Index Calls
Buying +46574
Writing +134741
FIIs in Index Puts
Buying +71743
Writing -11993
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty saw classical rejection of 20 DEMA
Traders were advised to book profit at 20 DEMA
Today’s trade is to play for short squeeze
For all longs, simple stop loss of 17,967
Buying as close to 18,020 will be best strategy
Traders can wait for dip or buy in phases
Best way to approach is via 18,050 or 18,000 Calls
If 17,967 breaks, then long trade is negated
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty likely to see big rally today
Market was positioned for a big decline
Crude’s decline to be the trigger for Bank Nifty rally
Stop loss for Bank Nifty at 42,800
Traders can wait for dip or buy in phases
Buying as close to 42,850-42,900 best strategy
Traders should add Bank Nifty from open till 42,850
No thoughts of shorting on Bank Nifty yet
Bank Nifty remains strong till above 42,400 on close
Nifty ended just 20 point short of profit booking range suggested in morning
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CLOSE TO A BREAKOUT
Nifty finally showing signs of a breakout
2 closes above 18,250 will confirm breakout
Most Index cos coming out with strong nos
Market has very firm leadership in IT
HDFC twins have added to gains from IT
ICICI Bank is only missing piece in the puzzle
Global cues strong, market pricing in 25 bps hike by Fed
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq has now rallied over 12% from Jan lows
IT Index is up over 13% from 52-week lows
IT stocks are now must have in portfolio
Market betting on peak rates, no recession
Any signs of global reversal will come from Nasdaq
IT, Nasdaq, Hang Seng ETF a good option for investors
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty High Low
Jan 18 18184 18032
Jan 19 18155 18064
Jan 20 18145 18016
Jan 23 18162 18063
Nifty is now in positional long zone
Intra-day longs not making much money
Stop loss for positional longs now at 18,100
Overnight players can hedge using Put options
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty being run single handedly by HDFC Bk
This month: HDFC Bank up 2.8%, ICICI, SBI, Kotak down 2%
Clear signs of money moving from ICICI Bank to HDFC Bank
Impossible to trade Bank Nifty intra-day
Positional stop loss for Bank Nifty now at 42,500
BIG WEEK!
Truncated week with monthly expiry
Last week before union budget
Most results have been very strong
US markets surge, led mainly by Google
FIIs continue to be big sellers in cash market
Buying after a gap up may not be best strategy
Need to see how RIL and ICICI Bk move after gap up
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Big surge in Nasdaq as Google cuts jobs
Market’s hopes: Rates peaking with no recession
IT stocks now buy on all dips
IT Index in bull mkt till its above 200 DMA of 29,114
Money may keep moving from Banks to IT
NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 18,100, 18200 and 18300 Call and 18100, 18000 and 18050 Putss))
((Show this plate again))
Nifty High Low
Jan 18 18184 18032
Jan 19 18155 18064
Jan 20 18145 18016
Nifty’s 20 and 50 DEMA both placed around 18,100
First trade on Nifty today will be on Sell side
Sell zone on Nifty: 18,125-18,150
Strict stop loss for all short trades at 18,184
Profit booking zone for short trades at 18,000-18,050
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,975-18,025
Strict stop loss for long trades at 17,950
Again HDFC Bank's strength overcoming everything else.
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STUCK IN RANGE
Nifty in 17,800-18,200 range for exactly 1 month
Since Dec 20, Nifty is closing between 17,800-18,200
Nifty IT closing near highs, Bank Nifty near lows
This month: Nifty IT up 3.5%, Bank Nifty down 1.5%
Start of curtailed monthly expiry week today
7 more full sessions before union budget
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq slipped from 50 DEMA in last hour
Nasdaq now at 20 DEMA, today’s price action important
Dollar-Rupee down from 83.26 to 81.24
Dollar Index now settled below 102
Indian market ready for big post budget rally
NIFTY OUTLOOK
“Sell on rally” worked yesterday
Today looks like a no trade zone on Nifty
Nifty’s near-term range: 18,063-18,155
Nifty’s bigger range: 18,000-18,200
Buying near 18,050 and selling near 18,200 good strategy
Once range breaks, Nifty will expand by 500-600 points
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty still relative weak
HDFC Bank has now assumed leadership
Bank Nifty needs to cross 42,600 for rally
No major downside due to HDFC Bank’s strength
For now, need to play 42,000-42,500 range smartly
MARKET: SMART TRADER’S DELIGHT
Market is rewarding smart traders
Buy on support and sell on resistance working
Market now has firm leadership in IT
((Show Nifty IT and Nifty Bank yesterday))
((Show Nifty IT and Nifty Bank over 7 days))
Nifty IT now firmly above 200 DMA
Nifty once again very close to 20 DEMA
Risk-reward not for long trades today
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Many Fed officials to address this week
Big US data today: PPI, Retail sale and IIP
Tesla leads Nasdaq higher, rest markets down
IT stocks are now firmly in “Buy on dips” mode
Money moving from ICICI Bank to Infosys
China theme is still intact
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty will open around 20 DEMA of 18,080
Nifty’s 50 DEMA places at 18,100
Sell zone for Nifty at 18,075-18,125
Stop loss for intra-day short trades at 18,150
Stop loss on closing basis at 18,208
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,900-17,950
Stop loss for short trades at 17,800
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
“Sell on rally” played out in first half yesterday
Last hour rally was purely due to Fin Nifty expiry
Bank Nifty has big resistance in 42,300-42,500 zone
42,300-42,500 is short zone, not buy zone
Stop loss for short trades at 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty is at 41,850-41,900
Again setup has played out. IT vs Banks
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NIFTY OUTLOOK
Real test of Nifty’s texture over next few days
Nifty has a cluster of moving averages ahead
Nifty Levels
10 DEMA 17,980
20 DEMA 18,090
50 DEMA 18,115
Sell zone for Nifty at 18,000-18,025
Stop loss for short trades at 18,100
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,800-17,825
Stop loss for long trades at 17,750
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see how HDFC Bank opens
Bank Nifty might open above 10 DEMA of 42,426
Big resistance for Bank Nifty at 20 DEMA of 42,653
Sell zone for Bank Nifty at 42,450-42,500
Stop loss for short trades at 42,653
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 42,300-42,325
Stop loss for long trades at 42,256
DATA VS PRICE ACTION
Every data point today is positive
US inflation print down once again
India: IIP above and inflation below expectations
Infosys: Margin miss but raises revenue guidance
Indian market has been selling off on all rallies
Today is the biggest test of market’s structure
If today’s gap up is sold, market will become very weak
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Inflation in US was 2022’s problem
Market’s view of inflation different from Fed
US bond market signaling peak rates lower than feared
Nasdaq once again leads rally
Nasdaq is now up 10% from Jan lows
Nifty IT is up 2.7% this week, Nifty Bank flat
Big risk-on rally seen in commodities
Brent Crude surges towards $84/bbl
Investors must have gold, silver this year
China, Taiwan, Hong Hong markets seeing big rally
NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 17,900 Call and Put together))
Market has shown signs of breaking range
Nifty has now opened door to 200 DMA of 17,300
Nifty’s declining 20 DMA now at 18,093
17,900-17,950 zone best for fresh shorts
Stop loss for intra-day short trades at 18,000
Stop loss for positional shorts at 18,100
Look at long trade only if Nifty sustains 18,000
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty again defended December lows
Bank Nifty no longer the leader for market
Bank Nifty is now “Sell on rally”
Sell zone for Bank Nifty at 42,350-42,450
Stop loss for Bank Nifty shorts at 42,500
Look at long trade only if Bank Nifty sustains 42,500
ICICI Bank looking to test 200 DMA
DOUBLE BOTTOM IN MARKET?
Nifty tests December low, bounces again
Market has massive shorts, covering likely
Possible to now test upper end of range again
Upper end of current range at 18,250
If today’s rally fails, will be big negative
GLOBAL CUES
US Bond yield sees massive decline
Dollar Index continues to fall
Equities, Commodities in for risk-on rally
Nasdaq led rally, IT stocks may fire today
Both IT and Banks can contribute today
NIFTY OUTLOOK
17,774 now established as near term bottom
17,774 now stop loss for all long trades
First resistance on Friday high at 18,048
Bigger covering only if Nifty sustains above 18,048
((Show 18,000 Call here))
Friday longs should book profit around 18,048
Indian market has shown signs of underperformance
Today’s trade will test Nifty’s texture of “Sell on rally”
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance for Bank Nifty at 50 DEMA of 42,428
Major resistance for Bank Nifty at 42,850-42,900
Both 10 and 20 DEMA places at 42,850-42,900
Friday low of 41,877 now most important support
((Show 42,500 Call))
Today's setup has failed miserably. Apologies.
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A SMART TRADER’S MARKET
Market respecting upper and lower zone
Buying at lows and selling at highs working
Nifty respected setup, Bank Nifty volatile
Market’s real trend will emerge from today
Volumes will now be back to normal
Most global markets will start to open now
China and metals will remain a big macro theme
GLOBAL CUES
US Bond yield inching back towards 4
Nasdaq still at risk of making lower lows
Gold and silver could outperform in 2023
Other commodities also showing rally
Indian market will have to deal with inflation
Commodity inflation can hurt domestic stocks
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support for Nifty at 18,086 (yesterday low)
Major support for Nifty at 17,967
Conservative traders can buy with stop of 17,967
Aggressive traders can buy with stop of 18,086
Profit booking zone for Nifty at 18,200-18,250
Short trade for Nifty if it rejects 20 DEMA of 18,251
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Financial Nifty expiry may impact Bank Nifty
Today’s range for Bank Nifty: 42,961-43,382
Buying near 43,050 and selling near 43,350 may work
If range is broken, then follow through possible