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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
41,200 is almost here on Bank Nifty
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Nifty profit booking was suggested at 18,118 with selling at 18130 and stop of 18,150. Today
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EQUITIES VS MONEY MARKET: WHO IS RIGHT?
US Bond yields surge further to 3.8
US equities continue to rally, especially Nasdaq
Nifty managed to close above 18,000
Nifty IT is now in a very strong uptrend
Reliance + IT led in first half, Banks joined in second
MSCI postpones Adani weight cut decision
Big question: Can the market now make new highs?
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq on verge of negating double top again
Nifty IT is now leading the charge for bulls
((Show Nifty IT 6 month chart))
Roku surges 11% after reporting loss of $1.70/sh vs est of $1.72/sh
New age stocks are now going to lead for near future
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty now trading above all major moving averages
Existing longs should now keep stop loss at 50 DEMA of 17,935
Fresh buy zone at 17,950-17,975
New longs should keep 20 DEMA of 17,871 as stop loss
Profit booking zone for Nifty at 18,118
Fresh selling zone at 18,100-18,130, stop loss: 18,150
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Level to watch: 50 DEMA of 41,811
If Bank Nifty trades above 41,811 can see short covering
All short trades must keep tight stop loss of 42,000
Need to see SBI’s behaviour today
A sharp 3 pm move is possible today in Bank Nifty
I am on leave today so you won’t see me on tv.
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Both swings have played out today. First on downside and now on upside and exactly from same levels.
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It's already played out though 🙏
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Sorry missed putting setup
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Lets see rest of the day
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GLOBAL VS LOCAL CUES
Global cues weak but local cues strong
SBI, ITC post very strong numbers
FM tells Awaaz: SBI, LIC’s Adani exposure no concern
Strong US jobs data stokes concerns of more rate hikes
Dollar Index surges, Brent crude down
IT may fall and Banks may rally again today
ADANI SAGA: WHAT NEXT?
SBI says Adani exposure at 0.88%
Axis Bank also clarifies on exposure
Good to see proactive approach by Banks
Market is ready to now move ex of Adani
Adani group stocks could see volatility
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
US jobs report may puncture the IT rally
Nifty IT has still not negated a major double top
Last top on IT: Dec 1 high of 31,227 and close of 31,120
Nifty IT has now recovered exactly 50% of entire decline
Nifty IT: Next support at 20 DMA of 29,500
Metals theme is losing sheen, need to watch China
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty will now see weakness only below 17,405
For today, Nifty in no trade zone
Nifty’s fresh rally only on close above 18,200
17700, 17600 and 17500 Puts
18200, 18100 and 18000 Calls
Nifty Bank will have to lead any rally for market
Nifty FMCG can be other pocket of strength
Nifty may not get much support from IT stocks
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has recovered over 4% from expiry day low
Bank Nifty now in a clear “Buy on dips” mode
Next resistance for Bank Nifty at 41,600
If 41,600 is sustained, even 42,000 is possible
42,000 would be a good zone to book profit
42,000 Call has highest Open Int, tough to take out
Join me on live twitter space.
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https://www.youtube.com/live/o0IZ5SH7nJE?feature=share
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MARKET: JUDGEMENT DAY!
Market has all positive cues today
Fed hikes 25 bps, says disinflation started
Adani FPO cancelled, will there be covering?
Budget largely seen positive with no tax hikes
Nifty IT is set to extend leadership
Big question is now around Bank Nifty
ADANI SAGA: MARKET IMPACT
Adani finally withdraws its FPO
Big question now is what happens to shorts
Point to remember: Shorting in both equity, bonds
Time has come for all Banks to make a statement
Indian Banks must disclose their exposure to group
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Meta up 17% in after hours trade
IT stocks will now rally even on small positives
Nasdaq has now negated a major double top
Nasdaq successfully defends 200 DMA
Nifty IT has been trading above 200 DMA
((Show me Nasdaq and Nifty IT 1 year chart))
TRADE SETUP
Institutional Flows
FII bought 1785cr on 1st Feb 2023
1st buy after selling 24k cr in previous 7 sessions
Largest buy since 11-Nov-22
Institutions net bought
01-Feb-23 +2,315cr
Highest since 23-Dec-22
First signs of FII covering shorts in FNO market
Covered 7171 shorts, shorts still at 81%
Change in OI on index Futures- Feb 2023 contract!
Nifty -1%
Nifty Bank -10%
Nifty PCR at 0.70 vs 0.80
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s move is now all about 200 DMA
Nifty low: 17,353, current 200 DMA: 17290
Nifty protected 200 DMA by just 63 points
First test of 200 DMA is normally defended
If there is second test of 200 DMA, its broken
Nifty will have huge support from Nifty IT
This year: Nifty IT up 5%, Nifty Bank down 8%
Market’s texture remains sell on rally
Nifty’s texture changes only on close above 18,000
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s move directly linked to Adani stocks now
If Adani sees short covering, Banks will see covering
If Adani stocks fall again, Bank Nifty will fall again
Crucial level to defend: Yesterday’s low of 39,490
Major support level: 200 DMA of 38,764
Bank Nifty is likely to have 500-1000 point swings
No stop loss will work in Bank Nifty in day trading
NIFTY: LOWER HIGHS, LOWER LOWS
Day High Low
Jan 24 18201 18078
Jan 25 18100 17846
Jan 27 17884 17493
Jan 30 17709 17405
BANK NIFTY: LOWER HIGHS, LOWER LOWS
Day High Low
Jan 24 43078 42615
Jan 25 42733 41540
Jan 27 41417 40148
Jan 30 40789 39419
BAZAR KE BADE SAWAL
Kya Adani ka FPO poora bharega?
Kya market ka sentiment buri tarah bigad chuka hai?
Kya budget ko le kar market mein koi dar hai
FIIs itni selling kyun kar rahe hain? ((Show FII bars here))
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq at very crucial make or break levels
If Nasdaq avoids double top, can rally 10% more
Indian IT stocks still showing “Buy on dips” trend
Chinese PMI at 50.1 vs est of 49.8
China theme is still to play out fully
FIIs selling in India, buying in East Asia
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty holding 200 DEMA on close
Nifty holding 200 DMA on intra-day basis
Alert: 200 DEMA at 17600 and 200 DMA at 17300
Yesterday’s low was just 100 points higher than 200 DMA
((Show the Nifty lower high and lower low plate again))
Nifty needs to make higher low to soothe nerves
Post budget rally possible if no change in tax and fed hikes by 25
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Very strong buying in Banking stocks in last hour
ICICI Bank, SBI led the recovery of last hour
Yesterday’s low now meaningful for Bank Nifty
Need to see post budget behaviour of Bank Nifty
“Buy on dips” and “Sell on rally” both working
((Show Bank Nifty lower low plate again here))
THE NAME IS BOND!
US bond yield surges further to 3.88
Equities were ignoring Bond mkt so far
Equities fall in line with bonds, rate hike fears back
Big question: Will Indian market see “Buy on dips”?
Nifty still not decisively out of the bearish channel
Market’s texture will depend on how IT stocks behave
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Need to watch Nasdaq’s move from here
Nasdaq will give first signs of fresh move
Nasdaq still comfortably above 20 and 50 DEMA
Nifty IT likely to lead decline in first hour
Any sign of recovery will be first seen in Nifty IT
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Profit booking zone for shorts: 17,950-17,975 ((Yesterday’s but zone))
First support for Nifty: 50 DEMA of 17,939
Major support for Nifty: 20 DEMA of 17,885
Buying close to 50 DEMA with 20 DEMA as stop may work
Need to see stability in Nifty IT before buying
Stability in Nifty IT will be first sign of buying
Buy zone for Nifty: 17900-17950
Stop loss for longs: 17,875
Sell zone for Nifty: 18,075-18,100, stop loss: 18,150
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty rejected 50 DEMA of 41,800
Bank Nifty closed just above 20 DEMA of 41,600
Bank Nifty has been the weak pocket of market
“Sell on rally” is working in Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty can now slip to 100 DEMA of 41,200
https://www.youtube.com/live/qJebACPirKw?feature=share
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Hope people had good trades
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Both Nifty and Bank Nifty approaching profit booking zone for agressive trades
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NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty closed right at the 20 DMA and 20 DEMA
Last time Nifty had a strong 20 DMA halt
20 DMA halt is a very powerful concept
Last time, Nifty fell 600 points from 20 DMA halt
((Show 17800 Call and 17800 Put in same plate))
17800, 17700 and 17650 Put
No major Call writing till 18000
Aggressive trader can sell with strict stop loss of 17,950
Profit booking zone for shorts at 17,750
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,700-17,750
Stop loss for long trades at 17,650
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty trading between important moving averages
10 DEMA at 41,356 and 20 DEMA at 41,647
Big banks showing some signs of fatigue
Aggressive traders can sell with stop loss of 41,800
Profit booking zone for shorts at 41,300
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 41,250-41,300
Stop loss for long trades at 41,000
Mkt reaction quite mature so far.
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STUCK IN A RANGE
Nifty directionless but signs of bottom in place
Nifty needs to close above 17,850 to force upmove
IT stocks could be ready for a fresh upmove
Reliance acting as a big problem for the market
Global cues positive, Adani factor has subdued now
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq has bounced from 10 DEMA after 2-day fall
Nifty IT also very close to 10 DEMA after recent fall
IT stocks might lead in first half of the day
Banks will decide second half after the RBI policy
Dollar Index, Bonds showing signs of more rate hikes
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Very strong Call writing at 17,800, prem Rs 56
Nifty has struggled to cross 17,850
Bigger rally will happen only if Nifty closes above 17,850
Put writing seen at 17700 and 17500
Nifty will become very weak below 17,635
Below 17,635 a test of 17,500 is also possible
Nifty IT should help in first hour of trade today
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty needs to be seen pre and post policy
All trades on Banks should be exited before 10 am
Fresh trades on Bank Nifty only after RBI policy
Bank Nifty largely in 41,000-42,000 range
SBI’s move post numbers has been disappointing
Market lacks a trigger to break the range
First trade of "Buy on dip" on Banks and weakness in IT played out
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https://twitter.com/cnbctv18news/status/1621478566876839936?s=52&t=aCVCRlJFtPMFJBxTuxuXRA
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https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1vOxwMeAqzNGB
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THANK GOD ITS FRIDAY
Markets finally looking at some relief rally
Yesterday was first sign of stability ex of Adani group
Today’s biggest cue will be the SBI press conference
Market needs some assurances from SBI on Adani exposure
Nasdaq leading world market, yesterday’s move was priced in
Banks can have a big rally today, SBI will be key
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq is now leading a fresh bull market
Nifty IT is at the cusp of negating a major double top
Last top on IT: Dec 1 high of 31,227 and close of 31,120
Nifty IT has now recovered exactly 50% of entire decline
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Budget day high and lows are aberrations
Imp data points: Jan 30 low and Jan 31 high
First resistance for Nifty: Jan 31 high of 17735
First support for Nifty: 17446
Major support for Nifty: Jan 30 low of 17405
Buy on dips and sell on rally both should work
Need to see how Bank Nifty moves today
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty recovered over 2% from day low yesterday
Level based trading will not work on Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty unlikely to settle down immediately
Clear trend on Bank Nifty could emerge next week
There can be short covering if first hour high is taken out
https://twitter.com/_anujsinghal/status/1620611585831215104?s=52&t=y2Tk1isS8EG_aFK_wqQllA
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https://twitter.com/CNBC_Awaaz/status/1619982071652569090?s=20&t=6PBNpz2fe2WnpIOcX1t1NA
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