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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
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MARKET: IN THE ZONE!
Nifty and Bank Nifty close to major breakouts
Strong Bears will try to fight the breakout attempts
Nifty needs one final push to break away from channel
Bank Nifty has paused for 2 days, remains the key
Financial Nifty weekly expiry today
NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 17600 Put and 17700 Call together))
Option writers zone: 17,510-17,790
Market’s texture is still “Buy on dips”
Chasing gap ups or momentum not advisable
Buy zone: 17,550-17,600, stop: 17,510
Sell zone: 17,675-17,725, stop: 17,790
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has paused for 2 days now
Today, keep an eye on how Kotak Bank moves
If gap up sustains in Kotak, can help Bank Nifty
Important levels for Bank Nifty: 40,500-40,600
50 DMA for Bank Nifty placed at 40,600
Positional stop loss for Bank Nifty longs at 40,500
Buy on dips, with stop loss of 40,600
If no major dip, then first hour low becomes stop loss
TEST FOR MARKETS
((Start with Nifty Trendline))
FII shorts down by 90,000 from peak
Midcaps have started to participate in rally
Bank Nifty has taken back leadership
Big question: Can the Nifty finally break the channel?
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
US Fed minutes will be most important
Bond market assuming Fed close to peak
Nasdaq has moved back in a solid uptrend
Nifty IT at a very crucial level of 20 DEMA
This week most crucial for Nifty IT
Can IT stocks survive recession worry in US?
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty negated forming a major death cross
Nifty has rallied nearly 750 points from lows
Texture has changed to “Buy on dips”
Nifty’s broad range by options: 17,430-17,770
Stop for positional longs: 17,430
Stop for positional shorts: 17,770
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,500-17,550, stop: 17,430
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,650-17,700, stop: 17,770
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty trading above all major moving averages
Bank Nifty traders now need to trail stop loss
Trailing stop loss for Bank Nifty now at 40,500
Bank Nifty may even attempt all-time high in May
Buying Bank Nifty in every panic now best strategy
Good morning. I am on leave this week. Back next Monday.
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EXPIRY OF A TERRIBLE SERIES
March series ends today, has been painful series
Nifty down over 500 pts but pain in midcaps bigger
Nifty has repeatedly taken support at 16,850-16,900
Big question: How much of 84% shorts will FIIs carry?
March series will also mark the end of FY23
Many traders hopeful new financial year will start better
52-W HIGH/LOWS
Group 52-w high 52-w low
A 2 112
B 11 312
Others 46 292
Total 59 716
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Expiry day today, need to play range smartly again
For last 2 days, market has beautifully respected levels
Today also, level based trading should work
Total premium of 17000 Call and 16900 Put at Rs 75
Range for expiry: 16,825-17,075
Sell zone: 17,000-17,050, stop loss: 17,100
Buy zone: 16,875-16,925, stop loss: 16,800
A sharp 3 pm move is possible, will analyse data in closing
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Combined premium of 39500 Call and Put at Rs 350
Broad range of Bank Nifty: 39,150-39,850
Trading range of Bank Nifty: 39,325-39,775
Bank Nifty slightly stronger than Nifty
“Buy on dips” working but selling seen at 200 DMA
Buy zone: 39,400-39,500, stop loss: 39,300
Sell zone: 39,650-39,750, stop loss: 39,800
NIFTY: MAKE OR BREAK
((Chart))
2 days of back to back expiry days start today
Monthly expiry tomorrow, trend is very weak
Yesterday, 5 minutes were enough to spoil entire day
Market’s texture “Sell on rally” till 17,225
Shorts will cover only if 17,225 crossed with volumes
Nifty not reflecting the true pain in the market
Market breadth has been extremely poor
Yesterday, Advance/decline was at 1:4
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Banking fears ease in US but market not convinced
Nasdaq closed at day’s low, Dow closed off highs
Dollar Index has eased, Rupee has been strong
Need to see if FII flows turn back to India
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is to try and play yesterday’s range
Today’s first Nifty range: 16,918-17,091
Sell zone: 17,050-17,100, stop loss: 17,150
Buy zone: 16,900-16,950, stop loss: 16,828
If 16,828 starts to break, press big shorts
If 17,225 starts to cross, press big longs
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Fin Nifty’s expiry may impact Bank Nifty moves
((Show 39,500 Call and 39,500 Put))
Combined premium of 39,500 Call and Put at Rs 500
Bank Nifty’s broad range seen at 39,000-40,000
Smaller range for Bank Nifty at 39,250-39,700
Buy zone: 39,300-39,400, stop loss: 39,225
Sell zone: 39,550-39,685, stop loss: 39,765
39,765 also represents the 200 DMA
HUGE WEEK FOR BANK NIFTY
Bank Nifty made a weekly inside Bar last week
Bank Nifty poised for a big 1500-2000 points move
Previous week’s range: 38613-40690
Nifty repeatedly defending 16,800 as last line of defence
Broader market has seen lot of pain
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq has climbed over all moving averages
Big differential between Nasdaq and Nifty IT
Nifty IT below all major moving averages
US 10-year yield has slipped further to 3.38
At some point, IT stocks will become great bargain
For now IT stocks remain “Sell on rally”
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Recent low of 16,828 now Lakshman Rekha for bulls
Break of 16,750-16,800 will lead to a bigger fall
On upside, need to cross 17,225 to force short covering
Any rally to 17,150-17,200 will be used to add shorts
Sell zone today: 17,150-17,200, stop: 17,240
Buying to be done only if Nifty shows stability
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance on Bank Nifty: 39,767
39,767 is Friday high and 200 DMA
Major resistance on Bank Nifty: 40,201
40,201 is last week’s high
Sell zone: 39,700-39,900, stop loss: 40,100
Buy zone: 39,200-39,400, stop loss: 38,940
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D DAY FOR MARKETS
One of the most important days of the year
US Fed outcome and language will be the key
Most markets trading with hope ahead of Fed decision
Indian markets finally sustained a rally yesterday
Rally likely to continue in the first half today
In second half traders need to take a bold call
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq is up 6.5% in last 7 sessions
Nifty IT is down 5% in last 7 sessions
Nasdaq is pricing in a pause soon from Fed
Nifty IT is pricing in major Banking debacle in US
Best case scenario for market is 25 bps hike today
Dollar Index and Bond yields have cooled further
NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Nifty 6-month channel))
Nifty now in a very crucial zone
Big resistance lined up between 17,145-17,225
Strong shorts will cover only on close above 17,225
Strong bears will add shorts in 17,100-17,200 zone
Above 17,225, Nifty has no resistance till 17,500
On downside, first support at yesterday’s low of 17,016
Biggest support for Nifty at 16,750-16,800
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
ICICI Bank, Axis Bank had very strong follow through
Bank Nifty has shown strong closing in last 2-3 days
Bank Nifty’s texture has become “Buy on dips”
Stop loss for Bank Nifty longs now at 39,366 (Yesterday’s low)
Big resistance for Bank Nifty now at 40,200
Biggest decision today will be whether to carry longs or not
If carrying longs overnight, hedge via Put options
BEMAUSAM BARSAAT!
Maharashtra: Crops spread over 66,000 hectares destroyed
Marathwada and Nashik are most affected regions
Rural demand might be in for a big hit this year
Stocks like M&M have collapsed in last one month
BIG EVENTS AHEAD
FOMC meet begins today, 25 bps priced in
Market’s 2 outliers: Pause or 50 bps rate hike
Fin Nifty’s weekly options expiry today
GLOBAL CUES: IMPACT ON INDIA
Russia Index, Crude indicating good news on Russia-Ukraine front
Crude’s decline will be eventually a big positive for India macro
Dollar Index and Bond yields have cooled off
Rupee has been strong despite record FII selling
Need to see if Nifty IT bottoms out or not
Wipro at 52-w low, Infosys and TCS almost there
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Market selling off in first half, recovering in last hour
Texture remains “Sell on rally” and cover at lower levels
Sell zone today: 17,066-17,146, stop loss: 17,185
17,066 is yesterday’s open and high level
17,146 is Friday’s intra-day high
17,185 represents max pain of Call writer at 17000 and 17100
Covering zone for Nifty shorts: 16,800-16,850
Almost every long trader has stop loss at 16,800
High risk that 16,800 will break decisively
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
ICICI Bank, Axis Bank led late recovery
Need to see how these 2 stocks react today
Bank Nifty has been rejecting 200 DMA repeatedly
Current 200 DMA at 39,650
Sell zone: 39,550-39,750, stop loss: 39,915
39,915 represents high of March 15
Covering zone for shorts: 38,900-39,100
Buying will resume only if Index sustains above 40,000
THANK GOD ITS FRIDAY
Global markets showing some signs of relief
Big question remains if this is a Lehman moment
Back home, important to see TCS stock today
Market has given enough hints of big correction
16,750-16,800 zone is most critical zone
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Big rally in Nasdaq, ended at day’s highest point
Nasdaq back above 10,20 and 50 DEMA
Nifty IT has not moved in line with Nasdaq recently
Market worried about BFSI segment for IT cos
Big decline in US Bond yields is a big positive
NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 6 month channel chart again))
Every long trader has kept stop loss at 16,750-16,800
Good chance that Nifty will eventually hit stop losses
Nifty has fallen 10% from top but has been slow grind
For today, need to see first hour high and low
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,100-17,150, stop loss: 17,225
Buy trades need to keep first hour low as stop loss
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has become extremely weak
Needs to cross 39,700 to negate bearishness
Sell zone: 39,400-39,500, stop loss: 39,700
Buy trades need to keep first hour low as stop loss
SHORT COVERING DAY?
Global markets showing signs of selling exhaustion
Back home, Bank Nifty defending crucial levels
This is not the zone to take fresh short positions
Bigger money will be now made on upside
On larger time frame, 16,800 is a great level to buy
Broader market has now good value in individual stocks
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Bitcoin up over 20% in 2 days
Dollar Index cools off, Rupee resilient
Nasdaq managed to close above 10 DEMA
Nifty IT oversold, a big bounce is due
Fed’s next week’s meeting now most important
TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 2,121.94 Cr in Cash (7,024.22 - 4,902.28 Cr)
FII Net Sell 3,086.96 Cr in Cash (6,737.37 - 9,824.33 Cr)
FII in F&O
#Date: Mar 14, 2023 #Source: NSE
FII Net Sell 1,480 Cr in Index Futures
FII positioning
Long: 13%
Short: 87%
Nifty PCR at 0.69 vs 0.71
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s “Sell on rally” texture has worked well
First gap up might again see some selling
The most important level today: 17,181
If Nifty starts trading above 17,181, exit shorts
Above 17,181 and 17,242, Nifty can see huge covering
Traders must respect screen and levels today
Any longs should have first hour low as stop loss
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
The most important level today: 39,785
If 39,785 is rejected, go short
If 39,785 is crosses, go long
Risk-reward in individual Banks turning favourable
Investors must use this dip to top up
BIG MACRO CHEER
RBI proven right, inflation data vindicates pause
Rates have peaked in India, close to peak in US
Interest rate pause is valuation positive for equities
Markets always moves 6 months ahead of economy
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank likely to lead a big Bank Nifty rally now
Bank Nifty on course for new all-time high
IT stocks will also fully price in a recession by this quarter
TCS NUMBERS AND IT
TCS numbers prove market’s worries were right
IT stocks are very close to 52-week lows
Biggest negative in TCS commentary is uncertainty
Next 3 months will lead to good bargain in IT stocks
Trading wise, IT will keep a lid on Nifty in near-term
Market’s leadership in near-term will remain with Banks
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Simple trade today: “Buy the gap down”
Buy even if there is no Gap down, add on dip
Stop loss to follow for day traders: 17,700
Weekly expiry today, momentum firmly with bulls
17800, 17850 and 17900 Call
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Keep an eye on HDFC Bank, close to life high
Bank Nifty is now headed towards all-time high
Best approach is to keep trailing stop loss
Near-term traders can trail stop to previous day’s low
Last remaining resistance: 41,577-41,731
41,577-41,731 represent Feb and March closing highs
BIG DAY OF TRADE
Global markets buy time ahead of FOMC minutes
Minutes of first FOMC meet since the banking crisis
Back home, Bank Nifty fires after 2-day pause
IT stocks nervous ahead of TCS nos, commentary
FIIs cover shorts again, net shorts down 80,000 from peak
Big question: Can the Nifty make final push out of channel?
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Bitcoin is now past the $30,000 mark
Bitcoin has now almost doubled from lows
A bitcoin rally is normally always followed by equities
Global asset classes now firmly pricing in Fed pause
Bigger trigger is if and when will Fed start cutting rates
Today’s CPI print in the US most important to watch
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty has made a major double bottom at 16,800
Nifty is now getting ready to test 18,000 plus
Last remaining resistance zone at 17,750-17,800
“Buy on dips” till 17,500 is respected on close
For day traders, buy zone at 17,650-17,700, stop: 17,600
For day traders, profit booking zone at 17,775-17,800
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s approach now should be positional
Bank Nifty is getting ready for new all-time highs
Last remaining resistance: 41,577-41,731
41,577-41,731 represent Feb and March closing highs
Stop loss for positional traders now at 40,800
“Buy on all dips” is working in Bank Nifty
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TRADING VS INVESTING
Trading trend “Sell on rally”
Great time for investors to buy good stocks
Indian Banks not impacted by the global crisis
Lehman moment was the best time to buy Indian Banks
Mkt very oversold, a trading bounce also due
Need to protect 16,800 to avoid bear market
((Show the Nifty 6 month channel here))
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Swiss national bank throws lifeline to Credit Suisse
Current issue in US, European Bank is systemic risk
Nifty IT at “Make or break” zone ((Show 6 month chart))
Money will flow to stronger economies once crisis over
Indian economy among more resilient ones
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty yesterday fell from Call writer’s conviction zone
Yesterday’s high of 17,211 was middle of 17,181 and 17,242
For today, the 2 levels to watch: 17,054 and 17,123
Middle point of 17,054 and 17,123 at 17,088
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,054-17,123, stop loss: 17,150
Buy on Nifty only if it sustains above 17,211
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
((39200, 39300 and 39400 Call))
((38800, 38700 and 38600 Put))
Bank Nifty made a very strong bearish bar
Sell zone for Bank Nifty: 39,300-39,400, stop: 39,500
Buy on Bank Nifty only once confidence returns
GREED VS FEAR
Best times to enter market is during fear
Any fall due to global reasons is great entry opportunity
Big fall in US bond yields is positive for equities
In near-term, panic and sentiment may drive prices
No reason for Indian Banks to fall in line with US
Advise to retail: Don’t stop SIP, do top up investing
Traders should respect screen and act accordingly
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Massive decline in Bond yields across tenors
Nasdaq yesterday bounced to 20 Week Moving Avg
Nifty IT just 370 points above 200 DMA
Good time to start accumulating IT stocks again
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Risk-reward not in favour of fresh shorts
Selling on Nifty has to be done on rallies
Nifty now “Sell on rally” till 17,440 is taken out
Alert: 17,440 is the 200 DMA on Nifty
Buy zone for risk takers: 17,050-17,100
Stop loss for contra longs: 17,000
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty at a “Make or break” level
Bank Nifty closed right at 200 DMA yesterday
Bank Nifty’s low yesterday almost same as budget day low
Aggressive traders can try a contra long trade today
First hour low has to be stop loss for any long trade