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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
STUNNING RALLY
Market’s momentum extremely strong
Best ever nos by Kotak, should fire Bank Nifty
Fin Nifty expiry today, need to see HDFC twins
Bank Nifty now within 2% of a life-time high
Midcap Index up 6% in April, within 3.5% of new high
Nifty IT and Infosys also ended at highs for 2 days
Reliance in focus today ahead of board meet
BIG CUES TODAY
Auto sales mixed so far
Kotak Bank reports margin of 5.7%, ROA of 3%
Ultratech nos in line, outlook very strong
Reliance meet today, stock up 10% from March lows
2-day Fed meet starts today, hugely significant
Nifty and Bank Nifty above all major resistances
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Market has rewarded positional longs handsomely
Date Nifty lows
Apr 28 17885
Apr 27 17797
Apr 26 17711
Apr 25 17716
Apr 24 17612
Apr 21 17553
Nifty’s strategy has been to trail stop to previous day low
Now stop loss is sightly deep at 17,885
Nifty closed above the first target of 18,035
Next target of 18,235 is now open on Nifty
18,200-18,250 will be good profit booking zone
For day traders, better to buy dips and keep strict stop loss
Any dip to 18,000-18,050 can be bought, stop: 17,950
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is now very close to life high
Positional longs should train stop to 42,800 now
Each and every dip should be bought on Bank Nifty
Profit booking zone: 44,000-44,150
One reaction possible around life high of 44,151
((Show 3 month and 6 month chart of Bank Nifty))
For day traders, buy zone at 43,000-43,200, stop: 42,800
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HELLO MAY
May series starts with optimism vs peak pessimism of Apr
Market not yet reached parabolic phase of euphoria
At some point in May, market will become hugely overbought
Bank Nifty is likely to hit a new high in May series
Current market most rewarding for positional traders
One last burst of big move possible in both Nifty and Bank Nifty
Other highlight of April was midcap rally, Midcap Index up 5%
MAY SERIES: CUES TO WATCH
Most important cue: Fed meeting next week
Most big midcap earnings will start from next week
Today’s nos: Ultratech, L&T Fin, M&M Fin, SBI Card
Tomorrow’s nos: Kotak, RBL Bank
Next week nos: Ambuja, Tata Steel, Chola, Godrej Prop
Next week nos: Hero Moto, MRF, Petronet, Tata Chem, TVS Motor, Bharat Forge
Political cues: Karnataka polls on May 10, results on May 13
TRADE SETUP
FIIs starting May series at 41% long
FII net shorts at 20,000 vs peak of nearly 2 lakh
((Show FII long-short chart))
Marketwide rollover very strong at 89%
Nifty rollover at 64%, Bank Nifty at 82%, Stock futures at 93%
Nifty futures Open Int at 89 lakh vs 1.53 cr at start of April
Nifty futures saw overall cut of 32% in Open Interest in series
Last time Nifty had such small Open Int was in Oct 2020
Bank Nifty futures saw overall cut of 53% in Open Interest
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s strategy is now simple: Carry with trailing stop
For now, trailing stop can be adjusted to yesterday’s low
Date Nifty lows
Apr 27 17797
Apr 26 17711
Apr 25 17716
Apr 24 17612
Apr 21 17553
Normally first day of new series is strong after good series
Next big resistance level: 18,032
Profit taking zone: 18,025-18,075
Buy zone for today: 17,850-17,900, stop: 17,790
Sell zone for strict intra-day: 18,025-18,075, stop: 18,100
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty had strong close at 43,000
Bank Nifty now 1150 points away from life high
Possible to see Bank Nifty hit new high in first/second week
45,000 is possible at some point in May series
Time to book profit in Bank Nifty at 44,500-45,000
For today, need to play a range of 43,000-43,500
Buy zone: Wait for dip after gap up, stop: first hour low
Sell zone: 43,300-43,500, stop: 43,600
EXPIRY OF APRIL SERIES
Market likely to ignore global weakness once again
Nifty has momentum, monthly high of 17,863 on target
Bank Nifty remains the leader, on course for new highs
Nifty IT will continue to cap gains of Nifty
Big day today from numbers point of view
BIG DAY: EARNINGS AND EXPIRY
Strong earnings from Bajaj Fin and Canfin Homes
Poor numbers from Coforge in midcap IT
Today’s nos: HUL, Axis, Wipro and Tech M
Expect good nos from HUL and Axis
Expect muted nos from Wipro and Tech M
Street likely to focus on domestic based cos again
Need to see the impact on RIL from NSE’s rule on demerger
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about two levels on Nifty
Levels to watch: 17,711 and 17,863
17,711 is yesterday’s low and 17,863 is series high
Nifty’s texture has been “Buy on dips”, profit booking at highs
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,750-17,800, stop: 17,700
Profit booking zone for Nifty: 17,850-17,900
If Nifty trades above 17,900, can see further covering
Can look at Call options if Nifty crosses 17,900
A 3 pm move possible, will review in Closing
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains a positional buy
Yesterday, Bank Nifty defended 42,500 and rallied over 350 points
Small resistance seen at 43,000, Heavy Call writing visible
Big move likely if 43,050 is crossed
Positional stop loss remains same at 42,250
For day traders: Buy zone at 42,600-42,700, stop: 42,450
For day trades: Profit booking zone at 42,950-43,000
If 43,050 is crossed, can look at Call options
A 3 pm move possible, will review in Closing
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My editors round table is back. I look at some fascinating data. Sure you will like it.
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https://twitter.com/moneycontrolcom/status/1649424199981596673?s=52&t=iBCkRBWLqYAieooElK7SeA
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STUCK IN A RANGE
Nifty has still not broken Monday high or low
Nifty’s battle is now about 17,574 and 17,863
Winner of this battle will take 500 points quickly
Indian market has absorbed poor results well
Higher probability of break out than break down
Reliance, ICICI Bank nos to decide near-term move
MARKET: SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTH
Nifty made higher high and higher low yesterday
Nifty ended 3 day losing streak yesterday
Date Nifty High Nifty low
Apr 17 17863 17574
Apr 18 17766 17610
Apr 19 17666 17579
Apr 20 17684 17584
Bank Nifty is almost 500 points above Monday low
Broader market has shown no signs of weakness
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty has been repeatedly defending 200 DMA
200 DMA on Nifty is rising 200 DMA
Current 200 DMA on Nifty is at 17596
Monday low of 17574 remains line in sand
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,575-17,625, stop: 17,550
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,700-17,750, stop: 17,800
Square off all positions by 3:20 today
Monday morning, market runs risk of gap up/down
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank has started to show strength once again
If HDFC Bank takes out Monday high, expect big rally
ICICI Bank nos tomorrow, positioning will be key
Bank Nifty has been much stronger than Nifty
Bank Nifty’s significant resistance at 42,567
Profit booking zone for Bank Nifty: 42,450-42,550
Aggressive traders can sell in 42450-42550 zone, stop: 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 42,050-42,150, stop: 41,950
Square off all positions by 3:20 today
Monday morning, market runs risk of gap up/down
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Thanks for all the feedback.
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Hey folks. Please watch this. It’s taken 2 hours of solid research. I am sure you will like it. Where does Infosys bottom out?
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Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have respected the buy zone and lower levels. Again a testimony that levels matter when markets get ranged
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MAKE OR BREAK SESSION
Market consolidated after Monday’s breakout
Indian market continues to ignore weak global cues
Most numbers ex of IT continue to look very strong
Domestic economy facing cos delivering stellar nos
Ex of IT, most big indices are close to life highs
Today is penultimate day of April series
If Nifty crosses yesterday high, expect fireworks
Nifty’s 200 DMA of 17,625 remains biggest support
BIG DOMESTIC TRIGGERS
Bajaj Auto and Tata Consumer post big nos
Tata Cons posts India biz growth of 15%
Tata Cons posts margin of 14.1% vs 13.4%
Bajaj Auto margins up 2.2% to 19.3%
Bajaj’s Domestic revenue grew in double digit
For both cos, domestic results better than exports
India’s economy has shown very strong resilience
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about breaking yesterday’s range
Yesterday’s high: 17,807, low: 17,716
Buy zone for today: 17,675-17,725, stop: 17,625
Sell zone for today: 17,800-17,850, stop: 17,900
Need to see how RIL and TCS move in trade today
TCS has started to show big moves recently
Ex of Infosys, most Index heavies are close to breakouts
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Approach on Bank Nifty remains a positional buy
Bank Nifty remains strong till 42,250 is held
With stop loss of 42,250, now Bank Nifty should be carried
Fin Nifty expiry damaged Bank Nifty in yesterday last hour
Another 2000 point rally has opened up on Bank Nifty now
May series may see Bank Nifty at 45,000 for first time
For day traders, buy zone at 42,500-42,600, stop: 42,400
For day traders, sell zone at 42,800-42,900, stop: 42,950
MARKET: FRESH BREAKOUT
Bank Nifty has led a fresh breakout for market
Bank Nifty can now hit new highs in May
Nifty respected both “sell” and “buy” trades yesterday
Bigger trade was generated on long side from big support
Market’s reaction to earnings has been very mature
Yesterday’s rally was broad based within Index
INDIA: DECOUPLING FROM THE WORLD
Indian market among best performing markets
This month: Midcap Index up 4%, Small Cap up 5%
Most of the global facing results are now over
Now, big results will be from domestic economy facing cos
Except IT, most sectoral indices in strong uptrend
FMCG, Cap Goods, Consumption, Infra at new high
Nifty Bank now within 3% of a new life high
Auto, Private Bank Index within 4% of life time high
Nifty IT is within 3% of 52-week low
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s low yesterday: 17,612
Nifty’s 200 DMA: 17,614
Nifty respected the sell zone first at 17,700-17,750
Nifty then respected the big buy zone of 17,575-17,625
Nifty’s close yesterday is a very significant positive
((Show 17700 Call and 17700 Put in same screen))
Next resistance for Nifty now at 17,802
Big resistance on closing basis at 17,828
17,828 was the closing high of April series
Close above 17,828 can take Nifty to 18,035 as well
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Approach on Bank Nifty was simple: Its positional buy
Bank Nifty consolidated for a week, broke out yesterday
Simple trade now on Bank Nifty is to carry
Stop loss on Bank Nifty now should be yesterday’s low
With stop loss of 42,250, now Bank Nifty should be carried
Another 2000 point rally has opened up on Bank Nifty now
Today is Fin Nifty expiry, might lead to some consolidation
May series may see Bank Nifty at 45,000 for first time
A BLOCKBUSTER MONDAY?
Spectacular nos from ICICI, stock has shorts
Reliance numbers a beat on all parameters
Reliance stock has been weak into earnings
Big relief for HDFC twins and HDFC Life
Buyback announcement from Wipro
Start of expiry week, cues very strong for breakout
If today also Nifty doesn’t break out, will be negative
BIG NUMBERS AND MARKETS
ICICI Bank
Stock has over 8% weight in Nifty
Stock has 28% weight in Bank Nifty
Stock has fallen 8% from its recent highs
Very strong nos, NIMs almost at 5% mark
Only worry: Mgmt says this margin may not be sustainable
Stock trades at very expensive valuations
Reliance
Stock has over 10% weight in Nifty
Proves the adage “old is gold”
Numbers driven mainly by O2C business
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Current 200 DMA is at 17,605
This week’s most crucial level: 17,750-17,850
Massive covering if Nifty takes out 17,850
1.68 cr shares Open Int at 17,700 Call
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,700-17,750, stop: 17,800
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,575-17,625, stop: 17,500
Need to see reaction to ICICI and Reliance today
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Highest build-up at 42,000 Put and 42,500 Call
Bank Nifty can test new highs if it holds 41,500
Bank Nifty has now seen one-week consolidation
Time to take fresh positional bet on Bank Nifty now
Bank Nifty can be bought with 41,500 stop loss
For day traders, 42,500-42,600 remains profit taking zone
Aggressive short covering will happen above 42,700
Sell trade only if Bank Nifty rejects 42,500-42,600
For any sell trade, a very strict stop loss of 42,700
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Today's high is 16 point lower than the upper end and today's low is 16 points higher than the lower end suggested in Setup. This is just to convey to people the importance of level based trading when it is working.
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FRUSTRATING WEEKLY CONTRACT ENDS
Highlight of this week has been a tight range
Market has been falling but not by a lot
A trend likely to emerge next week
This week: Nifty down 1%, Bank Nifty up 0.05%, RIL down 0.15%
This week: Nifty IT down 6%
Monday low: 17,574, yesterday low: 17,579
Current 200 DMA is at 17,587
Next week likely to be a make or break week for market
MARKET: A PATTERN?
Nifty fell from 17750 to 16950 in March
Nifty rallied from 16950 to 17828 in April first half
Nifty has fallen from 17828 to 17618 in 3 days this week
Big question: Is this again a trend reversal back to 17000?
If Nifty falls and closes below 17,500, texture will change again
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Call writers have huge conviction vs Put writers
Today’s trade is about expiry day and levels
Need to see if Call writer can defend levels
Every short trader would have put stop loss at 17,700
Every long trader would have put stop loss at 17,574
Traders need to play the range of 17,574-17,700 smartly
A 3 pm move possible, will take a view in afternoon
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is now showing some tiredness
Bank Nifty needs to fall to 41,500-41,800 for positional buying
Bank Nifty now “Sell on rally” till 42,600 is crossed
Sell zone for Bank Nifty at 42,300-42,500, stop: 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 41,900-42,000, stop: 41,800
For Bank Nifty, important to see when HDFC Bank selling ends
ICICI Bank nos on Saturday, positioning will be important
NIFTY: OPEN HIGH
Date Open High
April 17 17863 17863
April 18 17766 17766
NIFTY: INSIDE DAY
Date High Low
April 17 17863 17574
April 18 17766 17610
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see how IT and Reliance move in trade today
Reliance spoiled the move yesterday, IT recovered
Traders need to play the range smartly today
Nifty’s first range: 17,610-17,766
Nifty’s bigger range: 17,574-17,863
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,575-17,625, stop: 17,550
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,775-17,825, stop: 17,875
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is now showing some consolidation
42,400-42,500 remains profit booking zone
Aggressive traders can sell in 42,400-42,500, stop: 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 41,900-42,100, stop: 42,800
For fresh breakout, HDFC Bank needs to stop falling
ICICI Bank has also run up a lot ahead of numbers
Bank Nifty may attempt new high in May after some consolidation
EARNINGS SPOIL MOOD
Infosys and HDFC twins dragged Nifty by 155 points
Ex of Infosys and HDFC twins, Nifty up 33 points
Nifty has come back to the edge of the channel again ((Show Nifty))
Bank Nifty respected first base of 41,800 beautifully
If HDFC Bank crosses yesterday’s high, it wont look back
Strength visible in ICICI Bank, Kotak and SBI
In near-term, Bank Nifty remains the leader
FII NUMBER AND INFOSYS
Infosys saw delivery based selling of 3.1 cr shares
Value of delivery based selling at Rs 4,000 cr
FII holding in Infosys at 36%, highest in IT stocks
MF holding in Infosys at 18%, highest in IT stocks
Ex of Infosys, FIIs would have net bought
Infosys now trades at 19x but EPS growth at risk
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty violated first base, but defended second base
Yesterday’s low in Nifty hugely significant
Yesterday’s low was event driven hence very important
Nifty’s low yesterday: 17,574, current 200 DMA: 17,568
17,550-17,570 now becomes make or break zone for Nifty
Nifty’s texture of “Buy on dips” changes only on close below 17,500
For today, buy zone at 17,600-17,650, stop loss: 17,550
Yesterday’s open of 17,863 was also the high
17,863 now becomes most important resistance
Sell zone: 17,775-17,825, stop loss: 17,863
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty bounced straight from first base of 41,800
Need to see behaviour of HDFC Bank again
Kotak Bank showing some signs of taking leadership
ICICI Bank nos on Saturday, stock back above 900
Fin Nifty expiry today may impact Bank Nifty
Profit booking zone for Bank Nifty: 42,400-42,500
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 41,800-42,100
GAP DOWN IN UPTREND
Normally, gap down in uptrend is bought
Infosys ADR indicates 6-8% fall in trade today
HDFC Bank nos decent, but positioning strong
Bank Nifty much stronger than Nifty
FIIs on a buying spree in cash markets
FII short positions down to 29,000 from 1.94 lakh peak
INFOSYS, HDFC BANK: IMPACT ON MARKET
Weight of HDFC Bank in Nifty: 10%
Weight of Infosys in Nifty: 7%
If Infosys opens 7% down, will hurt Nifty by 90 pts
All of SGX Nifty’s loss is because of Infosys
Market might give benefit of doubt to HDFC Bank
Market may focus on HDFC Bk’s Balance sheet instead of P&L
HDFC Bank has 33% weight in Bank Nifty
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Dips in uptrend should always be bought
Huge build-up at 17800 Put, premium Rs 60 ((Show 17800 Put))
Best buy zone for Nifty: 17,717-17,730, stop: 17,685
17,717 and 17,730 are Nifty’s low for last 2 days
Profit taking zone for Nifty: 17,825-17,842
17,825 and 17,842 are Nifty’s high for last 2 days
For positional longs, stop loss on close: 17,655
Nifty IT is likely to keep a lid on Nifty again
Bank Nifty will have to do majority of work
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see market’s reaction to HDFC Bank
Bank Nifty extremely overbought in near-term
Need to now buy Bank Nifty on a reaction
According to options, first base for Bank Nifty at 41,800
Need to buy Bank Nifty in 41,800-41,900 zone, stop: 42,600
Positional stop loss for Bank Nifty now also at 42,600
Bank Nifty may now go through some consolidation
After consolidation, another move to 43,000 is possible