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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
Today's close is also important. Its now 3 days of back to back fall
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Today: Nifty respected what I call "Plan your trade and then trade your plan"
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Good morning. If you miss out on youtube, follow me on Insta at _anujsinghal where I have put short videos of market strategy
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MIXED CUES TODAY
Market fell yesterday under its own weight
Bank Nifty impacted by dividend, Fin Nifty expiry
FIIs continue to buy big, DIIs turn sellers
Global markets nervous on US debt ceiling issue
Market likely to provide fresh entry today
US CUES VS INDIA CUES
S&P 500 closed below 20 DEMA
S&P 500 very close to 200 DMA
Nasdaq still very strong, above all averages
Fund managers see a correction around month-end
Indian market has so far ignored US market fall
If S&P falls below 200 DMA, will be tough to ignore
Any correction in India will be buying opportunity
RBI now has fire power to be dovish in next policy
Consumption, NBFC stocks have seen huge rally
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support for Nifty at 18,223 (10 DEMA)
Big support zone for Nifty at 18,100-18,200
Buy zone for Nifty: 18,200-18,240 on stability
Stop loss for all long trades: 18,100
First resistance zone at 18,380
Big resistance level: 18,450
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty facing resistance at high of 44,151
2 days in a row Bank Nifty has retreated from highs
Bank Nifty extremely overbought, some correction healthy
Bank Nifty is now a buy only if it closes above 44,151
Bank Nifty runs the risk of a double top at previous high
Best buy zone for fresh positional longs: 42,928-43,500
10 DEMA placed at 43,500 and 20 DEMA at 42,928
All strategies will be given there
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For some of my videos follow me on Instagram _anujsinghal
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I am back with some fascinating data.
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https://www.youtube.com/live/gG021oRlRgA?feature=share
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IT LED RALLY LIKELY TODAY
US inflation data raises hopes of Fed pivot
Even if no cut, rate hikes may be done in US
IT stocks will see an end to valuation de-rating
Ex of Infosys, most IT results have been decent
Possible to see Bank Nifty consolidate a bit
Nifty can have a big rally if it crosses 18,420
Broader market likely to have a strong day today
FII MOMENTUM: VERY STRONG
In last 10 days, FIIs have bought Rs 18,000 cr of equities
Average run rate of Rs 1800 per day in last 10 days
Most of the buying in consumer and financial names
Midcap Index may attempt all-time high today/tomorrow
Today’s big cue will be market’s reaction to US inflation
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
If Fed pause is confirmed, money will move to EMs
FII momentum can pick up to over Rs 3,000 cr/day
Need to see if US can avoid recession
IT stocks will be good portfolio bets in next 2-3 months
Indian market can go through a melt up in near-term
NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 18,300 and 18,350 Call in 1 plate))
Big question: Will 18,350 Call writer panic today?
Nifty has some resistance in 18,380-18,420 zone
Nifty’s texture so far has been “Buy on dips”
Today’s trade is to buy half at open and add half on dips
For adding, a dip of 18,250-18,300 would be the range
Profit booking should be done if Nifty halts at 18,420
If Nifty doesn’t halt at 18,420, carry positions till expiry
Stop loss for all long positions: 18,212 (Yesterday’s low)
Keep an eye on large cap IT stocks for momentum
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty successfully defended yesterday’s stop of 42,800
Bank Nifty may underperform Nifty in first half today
Bank Nifty has strong resistance in 43,500-43,700 zone
Better to focus on Nifty today than Bank Nifty
No major trade in Bank Nifty today except 3 pm move
Will look for 3 pm move in Closing show
BACK TO BASICS
Friday and Monday offset each other
Market getting ready to test new highs again
Already at new high: Autos, FMCG, CPSE, Infra, Cap Goods
Within 1-2% of highs: Fin Services, Midcap, Nifty Bank
Ex of IT, most Indian indices already at record highs
FII momentum intact, huge cash inflow chasing momentum
BIG DELIVERY BUYING
Stock Del (Rs cr)
HDFC 1100
HDFC Bank 850
Bajaj Fin 625
ICICI Bank 450
Reliance 600
Tata Motors 500
Maruti 400
M&M 300
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is to buy the dip and add on all dips
First buy zone: 18,200-18,250
Add zone on further dip: 18,170-18,200
Stop loss for all longs: 18,150
((Show 18,200 Put here))
Profit taking zone for today: 18,350-18,400
If 18,420 is crossed, next level to watch: 18,660
No thoughts of shorting till 18,100 is holding
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
“Buy on dips” trade is back on Bank Nifty
First buy zone: 43,000-43,100
Add zone on further dips: 42,900-43,000
Stop loss for all longs: 42,780
Profit taking zone: 43,600-43,700
If 43,700 is crossed, next level to watch: all time high
No thoughts of shorting till 42,780 is holding
https://twitter.com/_anujsinghal/status/1655758629801431044?s=20
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THE DAY AFTER THE SHOCK
Market was due for one round of selling
Friday’s move would have pulled weak hands out
Friday’s fall was essentially technical, due to HDFC twins
Ex of HDFC twins, market was not too bad
Thursday’s high has now established near-term ceiling
Need to see how Bank Nifty behaves today
Possible to see Nifty and Bank Nifty test 20 DEMA
THE HDFC IMPACT!
HDFC twins accounted for 172 of 186 point Nifty fall
HDFC stock below 20 DEMA, close to 50 DEMA
HDFC Bank below 20 and 50 DEMA, close to 100 DEMA
Delivery selling of Rs 1600 cr in HDFC
Delivery selling of Rs 3000 cr in HDFC Bank
Total delivery selling of Rs 4600 cr in two stocks
Expected outflow due to MSCI factor was Rs 1200-1500 cr
Big question is how much more will HDFC twins fall?
NIFTY OUTLOOK
The day after big red bar can get very volatile
Every rally today will be vulnerable to selling
First support level for Nifty: 18,000
Big support level for Nifty: 17,885
Exit all longs if Nifty starts to break 17,885
Day traders need to see first 30 minutes of trade
If Nifty is stable, try to buy with stop of 17,990 (10 DEMA)
Sell trades will initiate if Nifty starts to fall
For any sell trades, stop loss will be first hour high
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty closed below 10 DEMA of 42,900
Big support at 20 DEMA of 42,333
If 42,333 starts to break, exit all positional longs also
Need to see first hour of trade in Bank Nifty after huge red bar
First hour high and low should be the two markers today
Buy zone: 42,450-42,600, stop loss: 42,333 (20 DEMA)
Sell will initiate if rally starts to fail
For sell trades, first hour high will be the stop loss
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Slipped right from sell zone after gap up, respected the stop and exactly went to first support zone (profit taking level)
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HAS MARKET TURNED?
First back to back fall in Nifty since Apr 18
Bank Nifty closed below crucial support of 43,800
Nifty and Bank Nifty showing signs of 20 DEMA test
If today’s gap up is sold into, texture will turn weak
Second half of earnings season showing some poor nos
Weekly expiry today, this contract has belonged to Call writers
BIG CUES TODAY
Weekly expiry today with heavyweight numbers
ITC and SBI nos today, both make big moves on nos
For SBI, all eye will be on the provisioning numbers
For Nifty, heavy Call writing at 18,200-18,300 range
On Bank Nifty, heavy Call writing at 43,600-43,800 range
Today’s closing is going to be extremely important
NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Nifty 18200 and 18250 Call in 1 plate))
Big resistance zone from options: 18,241-18,270
Big resistance zone technically: 18,309 (Yesterday’s high)
Sell zone for today: 18,241-18,270, stop: 18,309
First support zone for Nifty: 18,115 (yesterday’s low)
Big support level for Nifty: 18,050 (20 DEMA)
Buy zone for Nifty: 18,100-18,150, stop: 18,050
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
((43600 and 43800 Call in 1 plate))
Big resistance zone from options: 43,812-43,900
Big resistance zone technically: 43,993 (Yesterday’s high)
Sell zone for today: 43,812-43,900, stop: 44,000
First support zone for today: 43,446 (Yesterday’s low)
Support zone from options data: 43,460
Buy zone for today: 43,500-43,600, stop: 43,446
For all positional longs, trailing stop at close below 43,450
https://www.youtube.com/live/aaJu86Q3ZO8?feature=share
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22vSyVQ_adM
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Please join me on CNBC Awaaz Youtube channel from today.
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NERVOUS 90s
Indian markets getting very close to life highs
Nifty 3%, Midcap 1.4% and Nifty Bank 0.8% away from peak
Auto, FMCG, Cap Goods, Fin Svcs, Infra already at new highs
FIIs continue to buy, no sell number since Apr 26
Last 10 days: Total net buying of Rs 20,000 cr in Indian stocks
Average net buying of Rs 2,000 cr/day
Weekend numbers mostly very strong
BIG WEEK FOR MARKETS
India inflation cools to 18-month low
RBI’s pause now looks a master stroke
Some nervousness today due to Karnataka results
Manner of Congress victory will raise some doubts about 2024
US markets continue to show fatigue and tiredness
Huge nos this week: ITC, SBI, Bharti and Divi’s
18th May likely to be extremely important day for market
Expiry on 18th with nos of SBI and ITC
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today is a day to work with level based trading
Both “buy on dips” and “sell on rally” may work
First support zone: 18,200-18,250
Bigger support zone: 18,100-18,200
Trade is to buy the first dip and add in support zone 1
Stop loss for longs at 18,100 (low of support 2)
First resistance zone: 18,300-18,350
Bigger resistance zone: 18,400-18,450
Profit booking to be done at first resistance zone
Sell trade if Nifty rejects first resistance zone
Stop loss for all Sell trades: 18,450 (high of resistance 2)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains the leader, trade is “Buy on dips”
Trade is to buy at open and add more on dips
Stop loss for all long trades today at 43,400
Profit booking zone: 44,000-44,100
All time high of 44,151 will be the biggest resistance
If Index closes above 44,151, move to 45,000 will begin
No thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty till 43,000 is intact
https://twitter.com/_anujsinghal/status/1657758230167293952?s=52&t=iBCkRBWLqYAieooElK7SeA
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https://twitter.com/cnbctv18news/status/1656983387499032576?s=52&t=iBCkRBWLqYAieooElK7SeA
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https://www.youtube.com/live/dlWefwZ98XY?feature=share
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MARKET: GAME OF PING PONG
Nifty Open: 18,303
Nifty high: 18,344
Nifty low: 18,229
Nifty close: 18,264
MARKET: GAME OF PING PONG
Day Nifty
May 4: +166
May 5 -187
May 8 +195
May 9 +1.6
ITC, SBI and ICICI Bank intra-day
MARKET: IMPORTANT DAY
Nifty trading in last big congestion zone
Midcap and Bank Nifty very close to 52-w highs
FII momentum remains very strong
Karnataka elections today, exit polls in evening
Domestic numbers continue to look very strong
Earnings season to enter last stage now
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Heavy Call writing yesterday at 18,300 and 18,350
((18,300 and 18,350 Call))
Congestion zone for Nifty: 18,347-18,378
Big short covering likely if Nifty crosses 18,378
If Nifty closes above 18,420, no resistance till 18,600
Buy zone for today: 18,200-18,250, stop: 18,150
Sell zone for today: 18,300-18,350, stop: 18,380
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 43,400, 43,500 and 43,600 Call))
Heavy Call writing in 43,400-43,600 zone
Big resistance zone: 43,512-43,659
Support zone: 42,800-43,000
Need to see behaviour of ICICI Bank and SBI today
Buy zone: 43,100-43,200, stop loss: 42,950
Profit taking zone: 43,450-43600
Shorts will open only if Bank Nifty slips below 42,800
Please report this handle @_anujisinghal on twitter as fake.
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WEEKLY EXPIRY PLUS FED OUTCOME
Market now believes US fed will pause but not cut
Big drop in US bond yields, Dollar Index approaching 100
India’s macros look strong if Crude continues to tumble
Better to focus on domestic economy stocks again
Nifty’s texture remains “Buy on dips” till 17,885
Big domestic nos today: Hero Moto, HDFC, TVS Motor, Dabur, UB, Tata Power
FEAR IN US, GREED IN INDIA
US markets going through a huge turmoil in regional banks
Big question: Can Indian market stay immune?
Possible that Indian markets continue to chart own way
After some profit taking, market can attempt a fresh high in May
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trading range: 17,980-18,210
Maximum Open Interest at 18,000 Put and 18,200 Call
Traders need to play the Nifty range smartly today
Buy zone: 17,985-18,050, stop loss: 17,950
Sell zone: 18,135-18,185, stop loss: 18,210
If Nifty trades above 18,210, need to chase via Calls
If Nifty trades below 17,950, need to chase via Puts
For positional longs, stop loss of 17,885 remains same
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trading range: 43,100-43,500
Traders need to play the range smartly today
Buy zone for today: 43,000-43,100, stop loss: 42,900
Sell zone: 43,450-43,550, stop loss: 43,600
If 43,600 is crossed, need to chase via Calls
For positional longs, 42,800 remains the stop loss
HUGELY SIGNIFICANT DAY
Big day for global market, Fed’s rate decision today
If Fed hikes to 5.25%, will match highest of this century
Indian market will pre-empt Fed in last 30 minutes of trade
Positional longs can book profit and re-enter tomorrow
Taking any trades home today has some amount of gamble
Bank Nifty showed some signs of tiredness yesterday
Nifty IT’s contra rally will be tested over next couple of days
BIG NEWS IN AVIATION
Go First files for bankruptcy, IPO process was on
Go First news comes when aviation enjoying best period
Indigo rallied yesterday, may gain more today
Wadia group cos like Britannia in focus
Big impact on Bombay Burmah, holds 36% stake in Go
GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Indian market has decoupled from US market
Unless US market collapses, India won’t hurt much
Q1 might be more challenging for IT than Q4
Anecdotally, US recession leads to big rally in India
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Book all positions if Nifty starts to break 18,050
Monday’s big rally had disturbed logical stop loss
Logical stop loss for positional longs at 17,885
Buy zone at 18,000-18,050 if Nifty is stable
Very strict stop loss of 17,950 for intra-day longs
Book all positions at 3:20, take a fresh view tomorrow
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Fin Nifty expiry impacted Bank Nifty yesterday
Crucial day for Bank Nifty today
First support zone for Bank Nifty: 43,100-43,250
Major support for Bank Nifty: 42,800-43,000
No thought of shorting till 42,800 is breached
Buy only if Bank Nifty stabilizes in support 1 or support 2
Very strict stop loss of 42,800 for intra-day and positional longs
Book all positions at 3:20, take a fresh view tomorrow
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