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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
Good chance of new highs tomorrow now. Rememeber India only market in green.
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If Nifty closes above 18,825 then all time high tomorrow
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I will be henceforth putting special videos on Instagram only and not on twitter. So follow me on Insta at @_anujsinghal
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Bank Nifty!!! As soon as 43,850 broke it became weak
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THE CHINA FACTOR
Second straight day of rate cut by China Central Bank
Clear signs China going all out to revive economy
Big question: Will funds shift from India to China?
Need to keep an eye on commodity prices from here
HAWKISH PAUSE FROM FED
Fed pauses but keeps door open for rate hikes
MARKET: WHAT NEXT?
Market’s focus will now move to monsoon
Nifty should hit all-time high in next few days
Bank Nifty struggling due to technical factors in HDFC Bank
Record date soon for HDFC Bank-HDFC merger
Broader market still has big room for rally from here
Focus on Nifty Junior, still 2000 points off highs
Nifty IT at 200 DMA, make or break zone for big stocks
Metal stocks should have another field day today
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today is weekly expiry, respect Options zone
Options zone: 18,670-18,780
Today’s range for first half: 18,670-18,780
Short covering likely if Nifty starts to cross 18,780
If Nifty sustains above 18,780, can buy 18,800 Call
At lower levels, first support at yesterday's low of 18,690
Buy zone: 18,690-18,720, stop loss: 18,670
If Nifty rejects 18,780, can sell with stop loss of 18,800
A sharp 3 pm move likely, will revisit in Closing
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Low conviction on Bank Nifty due to various factors
HDFC Bank, Kotak weak, block deal in Axis Bank today
Show 44000 Call and 44000 Put in same plate
Today’s first range: 43,850-44,175
Short covering likely if Bank Nifty crosses 44,175
If Bank Nifty sustains 44,175, can buy 44,200 Call
If Bank Nifty breaks 43,850, can buy 43,800 Put
BOOK PROFIT TODAY
Longs were suggested at 18,570 on Monday
Yesterday’s suggestion was to buy at open and carry
After today’s gap up, long traders will be making 200 points on Nifty
18,800-18,850 is profit booking zone, not fresh entry
For fresh entry now, traders need to wait for a reaction
Today, Crude and Bond yield can hurt sentiment
New high will happen, if not this week then in second half
BIG CUES FOR MARKET
FOMC decision today, market expects pause
Big question: Will Powell turn Dovish or stay hawkish
Markets are going into the event with big long positions
Weekly options expiry tomorrow, momentum with bulls
Domestically, progress of monsoon will be key to track
If monsoon progresses well, market will make much higher highs
Only irritant for market has been underperformance of HDFC twins
HDFC twins set to trade as one entity from July
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see how Nifty IT behaves today
Nifty IT has led upmove, JPMorgan negative
First resistance zone: 18,750-18,800
Bigger resistance zone: 18,800-18,888
Need to book profit around 18,800
Fresh entry now either above 18,900 or at 18,600
First support zone: 18,650-18,700
Bigger support zone: 18,550-18,600
Will take a fresh buy/sell call during the day
Square off all positions at 3:20 today
Carrying any positions for tomorrow will be gamble
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Fin Nifty expiry helped for third straight week
Bank Nifty failed to cross first resistance zone
First resistance zone: 44,150-44,200
Bigger resistance zone: 44,400-44,500
Book profit in first or second resistance zone today
Fresh entry now either above 44,500 or at 43,800
Need to see behaviour of HDFC Bank again today
Ex of HDFC Bank and Kotak, Bank Nifty is strong
Fresh buy/sell call will be taken during the day
Square off all positions at 3:20 today
Carrying any positions for tomorrow will be gamble
Beautiful day for traders 🙏
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MACRO CHEER FOR MARKET
INDIA'S INFLATION PICTURE
CPI (%)
April 4.7
May 4.25
Core CPI (%)
April 5.2
May 5
MANGAL FOR MARKET
Cues positive, market has corrected from top
Market has triggers to attempt all-time highs
Liquidity will improve from June 15 adv tax date
Global cues very strong, Nasdaq leads US markets
Brent crude cools further towards $72/bbl
Fin Nifty expiry today, need to keep HDFC twins on radar
Ex of HDFC twins and Reliance, market at new highs
Broader market has been very strong
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 18,675-18,700 (Options based)
Bigger resistance zone: 18,740-18,800 (Previous swing highs)
First support zone: 18,550-18,600 (Options based)
Bigger support zone: 18,450-18,500 (20 DEMA zone)
Buy at open, add in first support zone of 18,550-18,600
Stop loss for all long trades at 18,450
No short trades unless market rejects first resistance zone
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty again defended 20 DEMA on closing basis
Bank Nifty’s low: 43,874, current 20 DEMA: 43,879
First support zone: 43,800-43,875
Bigger support zone: 43,500-43,600
Buy at open and add in first support zone
Stop loss for all long trades at 43,600
First resistance zone: 44,150-44,200
No short trades unless first resistance is rejected
Bigger resistance zone: 44,400-44,500
Above 44,500, a fast move to 45,000 opens up
BACK IN THE RANGE
Nifty lost 200 points from Thursday morning
All-time high of 18,887 now over 300 points away
No signs of reversal yet, market buying time
Large stocks like Reliance, HDFC twins, Infy under pressure
Broader market still looks very strong
Block deals continue to pick up, latest is Go Fashions
DATA DRIVEN WEEK
Indian CPI data to be released today
Inflation seen dropping to 20 month low
If inflation drops near 4%, market can rally big
Big inflation data and FOMC meet in US as well
Market pricing in pause from Fed
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 18,650-18,700
Bigger resistance zone: 18,700-18,800
Sell zone: 18,600-18,650, stop: 18,700
First support zone: 18,500-18,550
Most important support: 18,443 (20 DEMA)
Possible that Nifty tests 20 DEMA once again
Nifty protected 20 DEMA twice in May
Buy zone: 18,450-18,500, stop: 18,400
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is trading near 20 DMA of 43,987
20 DEMA is placed at 43,873
Bank Nifty has protected 20 DEMA on close
First support zone: 43,800-43,850
Most important support: 43,500-43,00
First resistance zone: 44,100-44,300
Biggest resistance zone: 44,400-44,500
Sell zone: 44,100-44,200, stop loss: 44,300
Buy zone: 43,800-43,900, stop: 43,700
STUCK ON THE EDGES
Day Nifty High Nifty low
June 6 18,622 18,531
June 5 18,640 18,582
June 2 18,573 18,478
June 1 18,580 18,464
May 30 18,662 18,575
May 29 18,641 18,581
Nifty: Close on May 29: 18,599
Nifty: Close on June 6: 18,599
Nifty at same level as on day 1 of June series
Total Nifty range of 198 points in June series
BIG WEEK FOR MARKET
RBI policy tomorrow, market expects pause
FII buying back after 3 days of selling
Nifty 1.5% away from all-time high of 18,887
Broad market outperforming, Midcap Index at highs
Advance/decline has been strong for many days
US markets have hit fresh 2023 highs
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Playing the range of 18,500-18,650 is working
First resistance zone: 18,625-18,650
Bigger resistance zone: 18,700-18,800
First support zone: 18,500-18,550
Bigger support zone: 18,400-18,500
Sell zone: 18,625-18,650, stop loss: 18,700
Buy zone: 18,500-18,550, stop loss: 18,450
If 18,700 sustains, chase via Calls
If 18,450 is broken, chase through Puts
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Smaller range for today: 44,000-44,250
Resistance zone: 44,250-44,500
Support zone: 43,800-44,000
Sell zone: 44,250-44,400, stop: 44,500
Buy zone: 43,900-44,100, stop: 43,800
If 44,500 is crossed, chase via Calls
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MARKET: IN A RANGE
3 back to back days of ranged trading
US mkts surge but cues negative for India
Dollar, Bond yields and Crude all have gone up
RBI policy this week most important cue
Nifty will see some resistance towards new highs
Near-term leadership likely to remain with IT
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today, Nifty IT and Nifty bank may move differently
Nifty IT likely to outperform Nifty Bank
First resistance zone: 18,650-18,700
Biggest resistance zone: 18,700-18,800
Sell zone: 18,625-18,675, stop: 18,700
First support zone: 18,450-18,500
Buy zone: 18,500-18,550, stop loss: 18,450
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty faces headwinds at higher levels
First supply zone: 44,250-44,300
Biggest supply zone: 44,500-44,600
Sell Bank Nifty if rally starts to fail
Stop loss for Sell trades: First hour high
First support zone: 43,800-43,900
Biggest support zone: 43,400-43,500
Buy zone: 43,700-43,800, stop loss: 43,500
Good morning. I am down with a bad bout of viral fever. Hope to resume from Monday.
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TOPPING OUT SIGNS?
Market has shown first signs of near-term top
Advance/decline getting weak for last few days
Yesterday, more declining stocks than advancing
Block deals picking up, many promoters selling
Some blocks: Sona, HDFC Life, Mah CIE, Vedant Fashions, Clean Science, Star Health
In March, many promoters had done creeping buys
Market has not yet shown signs of shorting
Nifty is just 1.3% away from all-time high
Risk-reward is not in favour of fresh long positions
Existing long positions should hedge or trail stops
CUES FOR THE DAY
Most important cue: Congress voting on debt deal
US markets nowhere close to what futures indicated
D-1 day of first weekly contract of June series
Earnings season is over, next cue will be RBI policy
RBI policy scheduled for June 6-8
Possible that the market goes through some consolidation now
FII buying momentum remains strong
Large cap valuations now extremely stretched
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty traded in 80 point range, after 60 point on Monday
Trading range for today: 18,575-18,662 (Yesterday’s range)
Bigger range for today: 18,500-18,700 (Option writer’s edges)
Buy zone: 18,575-18,600, stop loss: 18,500
Sell zone: 18,675-18,725, stop loss: 18,750
Keep an eye on Reliance and Infosys for any range break
For fresh positional trades, wait till a correction of 18,300-18,450
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty very close to huge resistance
First resistance for Bank Nifty: 44,500-44,650 (Call writer’s base)
Big resistance for Bank Nifty: 44,750-45,000
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 44,100-44,200, stop: 44,000
Sell zone for Bank Nifty: 44,500-44,650, stop: 44,750
Fresh entry for positional traders around 44,000-44,100
Today I put all details of Trade setup also in my morning message to emphasise why today was a BUY day and not a SELL day
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AAJ: BAJAR MEIN MANGAL?
Yesterday’s setup was overbought, mkt rejected highs
Today’s setup is oversold, market should bounce back
Fin Nifty expiry today, last 3 expiries have been good
Bank Nifty fell but defended last week’s closing low
Broader market strong, 6th day of new high for midcap
Today’s trade is to buy and add on dip, keep a stop loss
EYE ON THE SKY
Monsoon emerging as the possible party pooper
Not a single day of shower in Konkan, June almost over
Even after late start, monsoon can make up for early deficiency
Monsoon deficiency impacts Autos and Consumption cos most
Autos and Consumption have led the recent bull market
If monsoon starts to improve, Nifty will start journey to 20,000
If monsoon is poor, can expect a correction in market
TRADE SETUP
DII Net Sell 365.20 Cr in Cash (6,412.20- 6,777.40 Cr)
FII Net Sell 1,030.90 Cr in Cash (8,354.90- 9,385.80 Cr)
FII in F&O
FII Net Sell 1324.66 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 1882.91 Cr in Stock Futures
FIIs in Index Futures
Net Sell -1325 Cr
Long -7630
Short +6540
FIIs in Index Futures
Long 51%
Short 49%
FIIs in Index Futures
Amount Open Int
Nifty -1013 cr -2530
Bank Nifty -311 1435
FII Index Option Selling
Call +64625
Put -50950
INDIA VIX closed at 11.23 up 3.6%
Nifty PCR at 0.98 vs 1.29
F&O Ban:
NEW IN BAN: HAL
STILL IN BAN: MANAPPURAM, INDIACEM, IBULHSGFIN, DELTACORP, L&TFH, TATACHEM, ZEEL
OUT OF BAN: IEX
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s first support at 10 DEMA of 18,686
Bigger support for Nifty at 20 DEMA of 18,582
Buy zone for today: 18,680-18,710
Add zone: 18,625-18,675
Very strict stop loss for all longs: 18,582 (20 DEMA)
Profit booking zone for all long trades: 18,850-18,880
As of now, Nifty’s texture remains “Buy on dips”
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Date High Low
June 15 44,077 43,397
June 16 44,083 43,536
June 19 44,040 43,501
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty trading below all major moving averages
Bank Nifty has underperformed for over 1 month now
((Show one month chart of Bank Nifty))
Bank Nifty needs to defend 43,501 and 43,397
If 43,397 breaks, get out of all longs on Bank Nifty
No trade on Bank Nifty till there is stability
Intra-day if there is stability, can buy with stop of 43,397
For all sell trades, keep a stop loss of 43,733 (20 DEMA)
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FINALLY ITS FRIDAY
Monsoon will be the most important trigger
Mood was spoiled yesterday by Bank Nifty
Liquidity should improve now that June 15 is over
SGX Nifty indicating 65-70 point gap up
Nifty will make one more attempt at all-time high
Need to see if HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank bottom out
ICICI Bank has corrected to 50 DMA, HDFC Bank at 200 DMA
TRIGGERS FOR MARKET
Yesterday’s pressure was due to monsoon news, expiry
Yesterday’s low is now Lakshman Rekha for Nifty, Bank Nifty
No problem in broad market, fresh high for Midcap Index
Focus on individual stocks till Nifty hits new high
Once Nifty sustains new high, fresh move will be very sharp
52-w high number at 220, not yet at euphoria level
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty managed to defend the lower end of options range
Yesterday’s low is now stop loss for all positional longs
First resistance zone today: 18,750-18,800
Bigger resistance zone: 18,800-18,888
Sell zone: 18,750-18,800, stop loss: 18,850
First support zone: 18,650-18,700
Bigger support zone: 18,500-18,600
Buy zone: 18,680-18,730, stop loss: 18,650
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is the weaker component of market
Bank Nifty is now way below 20 DMA of 44,000
Next support for Bank Nifty at 50 DMA of 43,200
Exit all positional longs if 43,200 starts to break
For today. First resistance at 43,600-43,700
Bigger resistance at 43,800-44,000
Sell trade after gap up starts to fail
Sell zone: 43,600-43,700, stop loss: 43,850
Buy trade only on stability, stop loss: Yesterday’s low (43,397)
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View in morning was simple: 1) Buy at open 2) dont book the profit immediately ..even carry. 3) no contra trade today.
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No setup today. Trade safe.
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LAST HOUR MSCI MAGIC
MSCI inflows save markets from a bad close
Kotak closed at 2014 in cash and 1957 in futures
Good chance that Kotak will start 2-3% lower today
Bank Nifty recovered 300 points to close above 44,000
Today’s big trigger is decline in global commodity prices
Delivery volume of Rs 12,000 cr in Kotak Mah Bank
FII gross volumes at all time high yesterday
Risk-reward not in favour of fresh longs
Market now needs a healthy correction before fresh rally
MACRO AND MICRO: LOOKING STRONG
Indian macro looking very strong
GDP much better than estimates, inflation cooling
Big decline in commodity prices to be helpful
Auto sales data would be another data to track
Auto stocks have seen huge rally, valuations high
Q4 earnings season way better than estimates
Focusing on stocks with commodity tailwinds makes sense
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Near-term texture now “Sell on rally” and “Buy on dips”
Yesterday’s low now the first important support (18483)
Biggest support at 20 DEMA and 20 DMA (18,300-18,325)
Bank Nifty unlikely to support Nifty’s move from here
Bulk of Nifty’s move likely from IT and Autos/FMCG
Sell zone: 18,550-18,600, stop loss: 18,650
Buy zone: 18,400-18,450, stop loss: 18,300
Today’s focus should be on commodity consuming stocks
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 44,305-44,368 (Call writer’s zone)
Biggest resistance zone: 44,500-44,600
First support level: 43,900-43,930 (Put writer’s zone)
Biggest support zone: 43,822 (yesterday’s low)
Buy zone: 43,850-43,900, stop loss: 43,800
If 43,800 is broken decisively, get out of all longs
Sell trade on breakdown of 43,800 or on rejection of 44,368
For all sell trades, stop loss should be first hour high
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