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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s base has now moved up to 19,200
Trailing stop loss for all longs now at 19,200
Profit booking zone for conservative traders: 19,500
Profit booking zone for aggressive traders: 20,000
Fresh entry zone: 19,250-19,300
19,250-19,300 has been the low of last 2 days
No thoughts of shorting this market
If dip doesn’t come, buy with 19,300 as stop loss
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s base has now moved up to 45,000
Trailing stop loss for all longs now at 44,950
Bank Nifty has now opened a move to 48,000-50,000
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI can all rally 10% from here
Fresh entry zone: 45,050-45,150, stop loss: 44,950
No thoughts of shorting
https://www.youtube.com/live/AOnPawCfS60?feature=share
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https://www.youtube.com/live/OlWrCaqgI4U?feature=share
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What a move in HDFC Bank!!!!!!!!!!!
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NIFTY: PARABOLIC MOVE
No signs of nervousness in market
Fresh move to 20,000 on Nifty has started
Both Bank Nifty and Nifty IT set to participate
Small Cap Index still has room for 10-15% quick rally
Use this rally to exit poor stocks, add good stocks on dip
HDFC twins could see more traction, Morgan Stanley bullish
Monsoon has progressed dramatically well, July to be normal
Auto sales impacted by delayed monsoon, benefit of doubt likely
TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 1,197.64 Cr in Cash (10,469.81- 9,272.17 Cr)
FII Net Buy 6,397.13 Cr in Cash (19,439.74- 13,042.61 Cr)
FII Net Buy 1539.93 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Buy 1037.28 Cr in Stock Futures
FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy +1540 Cr
Long +17000
Short +680
FII Net Long Contracts at 72400
FIIs in Index Futures
Long 69%
Short 31%
Nifty PCR at 1.58 vs 1.40
Delivery buying of Rs 2,500 cr plus in HDFC Bank
Delivery buying of Rs 1,500 cr plus in HDFC
Delivery buying of Rs 1200 cr plus in Infosys
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Positional longs should trail stop loss to 19,000
Book profit today on first sign of trouble
For fresh buying, wait for a dip to 19,000
Market’s texture is 1 step back, 2 forward
No thoughts of shorting, market very strong
Resistance zone for today: 19,250-19,300
If 19,300 is crossed, fast move to 19,500 is possible
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank should lead Bank Nifty again
Another foreign brokerage resumes coverage
Morgan Stanley has target of Rs 2,110 on HDFC Bank
Profit booking zone for near-term traders: 45,000
Positional longs should trail stop loss now to 44,200
Fresh buy zone: 44,000-44,200
ICICI bank and SBI need to participate for bigger move
https://www.youtube.com/live/1ZxKSUKc--g?feature=share
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Above 18,925, what momentum 💪
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NIFTY: NEW HIGHS TODAY?
Market respected setup, ended at day high
HDFC twins lead to massive surge in Fin Nifty
Bank Nifty broke out, closed above 44,100
First close above 44,100 since June 7
Broader market has also stabilized after last week’s scare
Big question: Will Nifty again reject 18,888 or sustain?
Monthly expiry today, momentum is with bulls again
THE HDFC FACTOR
Delivery buying of 56 lakh shares in HDFC (68%)
Delivery buying of nearly Rs 1600 cr in HDFC
Delivery buying of 85 lakh shares in HDFC Bank (50%)
Delivery buying of nearly Rs 1500 cr in HDFC Bank
LIFE AT NEW HIGH
Market has not shown signs of complete euphoria
Only 133 stocks at new 52-week highs
Only red flag so far is promoter and insider selling
Autos, FMCG and Financials will continue to lead market
Large cap IT has shown signs of bottom
Earnings season starts next week, last qtr was good
If this quarter sees upgrades, market won’t look very expensive
Currently Nifty trades at 19x PE, peak normally happens at 22-23x
Stay with good quality stocks, add more on dips
Use every rally to exit poor quality stocks
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Don’t buy at open today, see reaction around new high
If Nifty sustains 18,925, can chase via Calls
Book profit if Nifty struggles around highs
Aggressive traders can short at 18,870-18,890
For any contra short, very tight stop loss of 18,925
Market’s basic texture is still “Buy on dips”
Buy zone on dip: 18,770-18,800, stop: 18,750
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty broke out yesterday
Stay long, add more on every dip
Add zone: 43,850-43,950, stop loss: 43,800
Don’t think about shorting Bank Nifty
Momentum very strong with HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank, SBI showed signs of bottom yesterday
If ICICI Bank and SBI fire, 45,000 is possible
https://www.youtube.com/live/4aMhskw4mQw?feature=share
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https://www.youtube.com/live/FIr6qM8rXPI?feature=share
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Had explained HDFC Bank as ahead of curve on tuesday. Now everyone is talking about it :)
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https://www.youtube.com/live/CsRxKFuCxN8?feature=share
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https://www.youtube.com/live/Jw97RrbVM0c?feature=share
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Good morning. Another 5000 Cr block today in Shriram finance!!!
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LIFE AT LIFE HGH
Powerful FII buying continues even at new highs
India stands out as the best market globally
China stimulus fails to move money from India to China
Indian market now approaching 20x PE at Nifty level
Anecdotally, market peaks out at 22x PE
Big question: Is Indian market now getting re-rated?
18,000-19,000 took 21 months, 19000-20000 will be like bullet train
Investors need to periodically keep reviewing portfolio
TRIPLE ENGINE IN MARKET?
Reliance joined in the party yesterday
Delivery buying of nearly Rs 900 cr in RIL
Bank Nifty very strong, IT saw some profit taking
First signs of euphoria in broader markets
Top 39 traded stocks in green, many with poor quality
241 stocks on BSE at new high, keep an eye on this
Market is now over extended, some consolidation healthy
((Show Nifty’s chart that Subhash has sent))
FIN NIFTY: LAST 5 TUESDAYS
Date Day low Close
June 27 19555 19788
June 20 19302 19502
June 13 19372 19469
June 6 19407 19479
May 30 19493 19606
HDFC BANK: MORE TO GO?
Stock is up 9% in last 12 days
Delivery volume of Rs 7500 cr in last 3 days
Stock now at 10% discount to average multiples
Clear signs of big FII buying in stock
ADR premium now at 12% vs 18% 2 weeks back
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Only strategy in market is to now trail stop loss
Trailing stop loss for positional longs: 19,100
Fresh entry zone: 19,225-19,275, stop loss: 19,100
No thoughts of shorting till 19,100 is holding
Profit booking zone for day traders: 19,400-19,500
Profit booking target for positional longs: 20,000
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has met logical target of 45,000
HDFC Bank saw first signs of profit taking
Move has now shifted to PSU Banks
SBI led the move, BOB and Canara joined in
Trailing stop for positional longs now: 44,500
Fresh entry zone: 44,800-45,000, stop: 44,500
No thoughts of shorting
Had suggested this thesis 10 days ago
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Should book profits here
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https://twitter.com/cnbctv18news/status/1674744168101601280?s=52&t=iBCkRBWLqYAieooElK7SeA
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ABKI BAAR 20,000?
Good chance of Nifty hitting 20,000 in July itself
18000-19000 took 21 months, 19000-20000 will be quick
India growth story intact, market nowhere near bubble
Corrections will keep happening, stay invested
Identify strong stocks and buy them on every dip
Big themes: Autos, FMCG, Real Estate and Home improvement
MARKET: CUES TO WATCH
July series starts, Nifty Open Int at 91 lakh
Nifty Open Int higher than 87 lakh at June start
Marketwide Open Int higher than start of June series
Marketwide positions higher due to big rally in Stocks
Big cue to watch will be earnings, especially in IT
Domestic earnings will be strong, IT can be the dark horse
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 18,875-18,925
Bigger support zone: 18,750-18,850
SGX Nifty indicating 100 point gap up
Any intra-day dip needs to be bought
Trailing stop loss for all long positions at 18,875 now
Positional longs should not be in a hurry to book
On every 200 point rally, adjust trailing stop by 100 points
Positional longs should aim at exiting only at 20,000
No thoughts of shorting, even if market starts to fall
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has underperformed in June series
Bank Nifty can outperform after last 2 days breakout
Every dip in Bank Nifty should be used to buy
HDFC Bank is all set to continue leadership position
SBI, ICICI Bank have shown bottoming signs
Bank Nifty can move to 45,000 very fast
Keep trailing stop loss of 43,800 for all longs
For intra-day, buy on dips with first hour low as stop
Absolutely no thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty
TODAY’S BIG STOCKS
MCX:
Stock can be biggest F&O loser
Could not make transition to new software in time
This was a binary event, stock was positioned for rally
HDFC AMC
Big relief on TER front from SEBI
Block deal overhang is over
Needs 10% rally to cross MSCI threshold
https://www.youtube.com/live/LuVyWjfjEV8?feature=share
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Setup and HDFC twins both worked out today 🙏
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BAZAAR MEIN AAJ MANGAL
Yesterday’s session has soothed nerves after last wk’s fall
Broader market has stabilised after 2 days of bad fall
Nifty respected 20 DEMA but saw resistance at 10 DEMA
Nifty’s yesterday’s high at 10 DEMA and low at 20 DEMA
Nifty IT showed signs of restarting a rally yesterday
Infosys has the potential to make higher low, lead recovery
Bank Nifty defending lows but struggling to gain traction
Fin Nifty expiry today, keep an eye on HDFC twins
NIFTY: LOWER LOW AND HIGH PATTERN
Day high Low
June 22 18886 18759
June 23 18756 18647
June 26 18722 18646
MARKET: MONSOON RELIEF
Monsoon has now covered 80% of India
Monsoon deficiency is now down to 23%
Yesterday, Auto and FMCG stocks did well
Auto and FMCG have been market leading sector
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first range: 18,646-18,722 (20 and 10 DEMA)
Today’s bigger range: 18,575-18,830 (options range)
Today’s trade is to buy at open and add on dip
Strict stop loss for all intra-day longs at 18,640
Stop loss for positional longs now at 18,575
Sell only on rejection of 18,750, stop loss of 18,800
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first range: 43,541-43,773 (yesterday’s high, low)
Today’s bigger range: 43,385-43,881 (Options range)
Need to see HDFC Bank behaviour after yesterday's fall
If HDFC Bank starts to rally, can chase Bank Nifty via Calls
Buy at open and add in 43,450-43,550 zone
Strict stop loss for all intra-day and positional longs: 43,345
Sell trade on rejection of 43,800 with stop loss of 43,900
https://www.youtube.com/live/N98zn59l4wQ?feature=share
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MARKET: BENEFIT OF DOUBT
Yesterday’s move can be attributed to three reasons
Reason 1: Weekly options expiry, Nifty almost at highs
Reason 2: Market pre-empted MSCI decision on Korea
Reason 3: Profit booking in leading stocks
Today’s midcap action becomes crucial
First real selling in midcaps yesterday in really long time
((Still respected options range of 18762-18938))
TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 219.42 Cr in Cash (7,147.83- 6,928.41 Cr)
FII Net Sell 693.28 Cr in Cash (8,947.66- 9,640.94 Cr)
FII Net Buy 325 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 2517 Cr in Stock Futures
FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy 325 Cr
Long Exposure 53%
Nifty PCR at 1.11 vs 1.18
F&O Ban:
NEW IN BAN: RBLBANK
STILL IN BAN: BHEL, HINDCOPPER, L&TFH, PNB
OUT OF BAN: DELTACORP, HAL
Nifty Day’s High
Jun 16 18865
Jun 19 18881
Jun 21 18876
Jun 22 18886
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support zone: 18,700-18,750
Bigger support zone: 18,650-18,700
Look for stability in support zone 1 or 2
Watch for midcap Index and market breadth
On stability buy in first support zone
Stop loss for all long trades now: 18,650
Resistance zone: 18,850-18,888
Sell in 18,850-18,888 zone, stop loss: 18,925
HDFC twins strong, need to see IT, RIL and ICICI Bk
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Date High
June 15 44,077
June 16 44,083
June 19 44,040
June 22 44,042
Bank Nifty respected sell zone yesterday
Bank Nifty in a range of 43,350-44,050
Buy around 43,500 with stop of 43,350
Sell around 44,000 with stop of of 44,100
SBI has become weak, closed below 200 DMA
Leave the obsession of new high to media. Traders should focus on range. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty beautifully respected buy and sell zone!!!!
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MARKET: READY FOR HIGHER PEAKS
Delivery buying of over Rs 1,000 cr in HDFC Bank
Bank Nifty managed to make a higher low
Nifty IT closed above 200 DMA, TCS above 200 DMA
Markets showing signs that new highs will sustain
If monsoon progresses well, a sharp move to 20,000 possible
Everyone expecting correction, market may not oblige
MARKET: VERY STRONG LIQUIDITY
Market has absorbed blocks worth Rs 10,000 cr in 2 days
Another 2 blocks launched, third is possible before open
Stocks surging 10-15% after block deals
Yesterday, both PEL and Shriram Fin rallied over 10%
No of BSE stocks at 52-w high: 241
Small Cap stocks still have valuation comfort
Every dip should be used to buy
TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 550.36 Cr in Cash (7,704.86- 7,154.50 Cr)
FII Net Buy 4,013.10 Cr in Cash (13,795.52- 9,782.42 Cr)
FII in F&O
FII Net Buy 212.23 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 817.85 Cr in Stock Futures
Index Futures OI Change
Nifty -5.1%
Nifty Bank -1.7%
FIIs in Index Futures
Long -2120
Short -4135
FIIs Index Options Selling
Call +1.21 Lk
Put +1.41 Lk
Nifty PCR at 1.18 vs 1.16
F&O Ban:
NEW IN BAN: PNB
STILL IN BAN: BHEL, DELTACORP, HAL, HINDCOPPER, L&TFH
OUT OF BAN: INDIACEM, IBULHSGFIN
Nifty Day’s High
Jun 16 18865
Jun 19 18881
Jun 21 18876
NIFTY OUTLOOK
No trade today on Nifty till 1 pm
Expiry trade might come after 1 pm
Compulsive traders should respect options range
Options range: 18,762-18,938
Buy zone: 18,770-18,800, stop loss: 18,750
Sell zone: 18,880-18,920, stop loss: 18,950
Chase via Calls if Nifty crosses 18,950
Chase via Puts if Nifty breaches 18,750
Expiry trade will be revisited in Closing show
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank has bottomed out, +ve for Index
ICICI Bank has still not show signs of bottom
Next levels to watch for ICICI: 200 DMA of 895
Bank Nifty is in 43,450-44,050 range
Buy in 43,500-43,600 zone: stop loss: 43,350
Sell in 43,950-44,050 zone: stop loss: 44,100
A sharp 3 pm move is possible today, will revisit in closing
MARKET: WHY IT RALLIED?
Market respected conviction, ended at highs
5 reasons for market’s rally yesterday
Reason 1: Successful defence of 10 DEMA in rising trend
Reason 2: Absorption of Rs 5,000 cr blocks without any slippage
Reason 3: Broad market showing no weakness at all
Reason 4: Market was oversold in F&O
Reason 5: Fin Nifty’s weekly expiry helped for 4th successive week
Big question: Will the Nifty sustain above all time high?
MARKET: LIFE AT NEW HIGH
Excluding IT, all sectoral indices at or close to new highs
Midcap Index has been hitting new high regularly
Small Cap Index is still 10% away from life highs
Nifty Junior still 3% away from life highs
Auto and FMCG remain the leadership indices
Nifty IT is once again at 200 DMA, make or break zone
HDFC Bank may have bottomed out, can lead Bank Nifty
If HDFC Bank starts to rally, Bank Nifty can end underperformance
HDFC Bank’s ADR premium at 16% now, signs of selling ending
TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 1,972.51 Cr in Cash (9,851.71- 7,879.20 Cr)
FII Net Sell 1,942.62 Cr in Cash (11,733.88- 13,676.50 Cr)
FII Net Buy 369.94 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 326.43 Cr in Stock Futures
FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy +370 Cr
Long -1150
Short -3950
FIIs in Index Futures
Amount Open Int
Nifty -260 cr -4414
Bank Nifty +624 -771
Nifty PCR at 1.16 vs 0.98
NEW IN BAN: HINDCOPPER, BHEL
STILL IN BAN:, INDIACEM, IBULHSGFIN, DELTACORP, HAL, L&TFH,
OUT OF BAN: MANAPPURAM, TATACHEM, ZEEL
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Profit booking zone: 18,850-18,900
Fresh entry to be done now conditionally
Condition 1: Nifty sustains above 18,900
If Nifty sustains above 18,900, can buy Calls
Condition 2: Nifty dips to support zone of 18,725-18,775
Yesterday’s low of 18,660 now stop loss for all long trades
Sell trade only on rejection of 18,900 with stop loss of 18,925
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty broadly in 43,400-44,000 range
Buying near 43,400 and selling near 44,000 working
For today, profit booking zone at 43,900-44,000
Short trade on rejection of 44,050, stop loss: 44,100
Fresh buy trade strictly in 43,450-43,600 zone: Stop: 43,350
Need to see how HDFC Bank behaves from here
ICICI Bank at 50 DMA, has corrected 3.5% from highs
The way 5000 cr blocks absorbed today it tells you kind of market we are in
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