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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
This channel will soon move to Instagram. Follow me for all the setups plus the daily videos
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https://www.youtube.com/live/nL0rAKAs1Hk?si=ULtecyNKOfTxfrgW
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IMPORTANCE OF 19,452
Yesterday, Nifty fell exactly from the 20 DMA of 19,452
Today’s key level to watch is the series low of 19,229
Series has trended lower, possible to test 19,229 today
There is no big positional trade on Nifty or Bank Nifty
Traders should trade intra-day and on boundaries
Better to focus on individual stocks which are trending
At some point, either Nifty will catch up or midcaps will fall
EXPIRY DAY: CUES TO WATCH
Index Series returns
Nifty -1.6%
Midcap +5.2%
Nifty Bank -3.2%
Nifty IT +4.6%
EXPIRY DAY: CUES TO WATCH
Nifty: Highest Open Interest of 1.6 cr at 19,400 Call
19,400 Call premium at Rs 19, resistance at 19,419
19,300 Put has Open Int of 1.3 cr, premium at Rs 25
Put writers see Nifty taking support at 19,275
Nifty’s falling 20 DMA at 19,432 vs 19,452 yesterday
Nifty Bank’s 50 DMA at 44,768 vs 44,757 yesterday
Nifty Bank’s 20 DMA at 44,400
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,419-19,432 (Options based and 20 DMA)
Bigger resistance: 19,452 (Yesterday’s high)
Short every rally with strict stop of 19,452
First support: 19,275 (Options based)
Bigger support: 19,229 (Series low)
Buy zone: 19,275-19,325, stop loss: 19,200
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains the biggest problem point
First support: 44,200 (last week’s breakout)
Bigger support: 44,036 (100 DMA)
No buy trade in Bank Nifty till stability
First resistance: 44,400-44,540 (20 DMA and options based)
Bigger resistance: 44,768 (50 DMA)
Sell Bank Nifty on failure of rally, stop loss: 44,768
NIFTY IT: WHAT NEXT?
Strongest large Index in market now
Infosys also crossed 200 DMA, filled the gap
IT Index is heading towards 52-week high
If Fed delivers dovish pause, IT will surge
Big lesson: You can't buy at resistance. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty reversed exactly from levels mentioned
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CUES FOR TODAY
Dollar and Bond yields in US tumble after consumer sentiment data
US economy cooling, which means Fed will pause in September
IT stocks likely to have a field day today
Dollar Index cools to 103.5, positive for emerging markets
Expiry minus 1 day today, normally it’s a trend day for markets
Maximum Open Interest at 19,400 and 19,500 Calls
Need to see if Call writers will panic today or hold
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about the gap up and sustainability
No trade in Nifty after a big gap up
First resistance for Nifty: 19,430 (Options based)
Bigger resistance for Nifty: 19,452 (20 DMA)
If Nifty sustains above 19,452, then only short covering will pick up
If Nifty rejects 19,452, sell with a stop loss of 19,475
If Nifty manages to sustain 19,452, Buy call options
Stop loss for all intra-day long positions: First hour low
Nifty likely to outperform Bank Nifty today due to IT
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 44,757 (50 DMA)
Bigger resistance: 44,950 (Last Thursday’s reversal point)
HDFC Bank has shown fresh signs of bottoming out
Need to see if Axis and ICICI Bank have bottomed out as well
No premeditated trade in Bank Nifty today
Will take a call On Bank Nifty after first hour of trade
44,757-44,950 is not the zone to buy, risk of being stuck
10 lessons from Warren Buffet. You will like this.
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https://www.youtube.com/live/-0SbKU9a4Dw?si=L9_9ccf6_hwanIEm
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https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwgtcI7KAC0/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==
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BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty managed to protect 44,200 on close
First support: 44,200 (Breakout zone)
Bigger support: 43,925 (100 DMA)
First resistance: 44,359 (Friday high)
Bigger resistance: 44,575 (Falling 20 DMA)
Sell zone: 44,350-44,450, stop loss: 44,600
Buy zone: 44,000-44,100, stop loss: 43,925
https://x.com/cnbctv18news/status/1695047058519146862?s=52&t=iBCkRBWLqYAieooElK7SeA
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Vey bad follow through after hitting targets.
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We will start close to 44800
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Nifty still an avoid for now.
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44205 importance became clear today on Bank Nifty
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https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwRq_zTgIKa/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==
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NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,223 (Yesterday’s low and 10 Week EMA)
Bigger support: 19,151 (Put writer’s zone)
All important level to watch: 18,955 (20 Week EMA)
Buy only on stability above 19,223, stop loss: 19,151
First resistance zone: 19,388-19,425 (Yesterday high and 20 DMA)
Bigger resistance zone: 19,500-19,550 (breakdown zone)
Sell on failure of rally towards 19,350, stop loss: 19,425
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains the weakest component of market
Bank Nifty closed just above 20 week EMA yesterday (43,945)
Bank Nifty also closed below 100 DMA on daily charts
Next big level to track: 200 DMA of 42,900
For day traders, August series low of 43,600 most important
Bank Nifty remains sell on all rallies with stop of 44,200
Buy only on stability above 43,800 with stop loss of 43,600
Yesterday also I mentioned and today also.
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https://www.youtube.com/live/MAKxa59OVfw?si=qFYz71aBG3G7je_N
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https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwjWxgvoqra/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==
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MARKET: GETTING OVERHEATED
Clear signs of FOMO and euphoria in midcaps
Promoter and insider selling picking up daily
Biggest of blocks are getting done in block deal window
Stocks are rallying 10% after promoter sells
Easy to make big mistakes in such market
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 19,367-19,382 (yesterday’s high and 50 DMA)
Bigger resistance zone: 19,440-19,472 (Option zone and 20 DMA)
Sell zone: 19,350-19,400, stop loss: 19,472
First support zone: 19,240-19,250 (Recent lows)
Bigger support zone: 19,185-19,210 (Options zone)
Buy only if Nifty is stable above 19,250, stop: 19,210
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty Bank
Close: 44495
20 DMA 44526
50 DMA 44746
First resistance zone: 44,526-44,610 (20 DMA and yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance zone: 44,700-44,746 (Options zone and 50 DMA)
Sell zone: 44,550-44,650, stop loss: 44,750
First support zone: 44,300-44,350 (Options based)
Biggest support zone: 44,200 (Yesterday low and breakout level)
Buy zone: 44,300-44,350, stop loss: 44,190
https://www.youtube.com/live/QaPqvnRnLY8?si=b9UydcVB0YJ5PcoE
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NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,340 (Friday high)
Bigger resistance: 19,432 (Options based)
Sell zone: 19,325-19,375, stop loss: 19,432
First support: 19,229 (Friday low)
Bigger support: 19,187 (Options based)
Buy only on stability above 19,200, stop: 19,150
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwXWZD5AJ5i/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==
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BANK NIFTY: BREAKOUT!
Massive rally in Bank Nifty above 44,205
Strategy in Closing was to carry long positions
Need to adjust stop loss after gap up in morning
Bank Nifty stop was 44,205, now would be first hour low
Bank Nifty set to cross 20 and 50 DMA in gap up (44,725)
Nifty set to test 20 DMA of 19,529 after gap up
If gap up sustains, short covering can be huge on Nifty
MARKET: WHERE ARE THE SHORTS?
Index/Stock Off highs
Bank Nifty -4%
Nifty 50 -2.7%
Kotak Bank -14%
Bajaj Finance -11%
HDFC Bank -10%
SBI -8%
Tata Motors -8%
If Nifty sustains above 20 DMA, expect short covering
Weekly expiry today, yesterday was first day of move
A fresh move normally lasts for at least 3 days
Only risk if if yesterday’s move turns out as fake breakout
Yesterday’s low should be the stop loss now for all longs
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,528 (20 DMA)
Biggest resistance: 19,645 (last swing high)
First support: 19,444 (Yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 19,366 (yesterday’s low)
If buying in gap up, need to keep strict SL of 19,444
If Nifty sustains above 19,528, chase via Calls
No short trade now unless market confirms breakout was fake
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
44500 Call
First resistance: 44,604
Bigger resistance: 44,725 (20 and 50 DMA)
If 44,725 sustains, can see bigger short covering
Need to keep an eye on ICICI Bk, Kotak and HDFC Bank
If HDFC Bank starts to fire, Bank Nifty can see big rally
First support: 44,479 (Yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 44,205 (Breakout zone)
Stop loss for all longs now at 44,205
No short trade unless breakout fails
Strategy now on Bank Nifty: 44,205 now your stop for longs and possible to see 20 DMA of 44,800.
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NIFTY VS MIDCAPS
Index This month This year
Nifty -1.8% +7%
Midcap +2.2% +22%
Small Cap +1.3% +22%
Nifty Bank -3.6% +2%
HDFC Bank -4% -3%
IDFC First +5.5% +56%
LEVEL BASED MARKET VS TRENDING MKT
Last month was trending market
In trending market, you should stay with the trend
In uptrending market, you can buy on dip or rally
In downtrending market, you can sell on dip or rally
This month’s market is contracting and level based
In level based market, you need to trade the boundaries
In current market, you need to sell the rallies and buy the dips
Current range for Nifty is 19,250-19,550
Selling near 19,550 and buying near 19,250 is working
In trending market, stay with trend and make big profit
In contracting market, take small profits daily
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Trade only if you can take both sides
Keep taking 40-50 point profit in both directions
First support level: 19,334 (50 DMA)
Bigger support level: 19,253 (series low)
First resistance level: 19,443 (yesterday high)
Bigger resistance level: 19,550 (20 DMA)
Buy zone: 19,300-19,350, stop loss: 19,250
Sell zone: 19,400-19,450, stop loss: 19,550
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Texture is “Sell on rally” till 44,205 is crossed decisively
First resistance: 44,151 (yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 44,205 (20 DMA)
First support: 43,860 (Options based)
Bigger support: 43,750 (100 DMA)
Sell on failure of any rally, stop loss: 44,205
Buy on stability above 43,750, stop: 43,700