MARKET:BASIC SETUP
Nifty made lower high, lower low but higher close
Only Bank Nifty is stopping Nifty from hitting new highs
Nifty 2% away from highs, Bank Nifty 6%
Almost all sectoral indices except Banks and IT at highs
IT Index should be next big one to hit 52-week highs
Market leadership firmly with IT and Auto stocks
Trending series, started at Nifty level of 18,857
Trending higher series normally ends at highest point
Bond yield, Dollar and Brent all lower than 3:30 pm yesterday
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Expiry today, need to respect Option writer’s zone
First support: 19,776 (Options based)
Bigger support: 19,703 (Yesterday’s low)
First resistance: 19,875 (Series high)
Bigger resistance: 19,925 (Options based)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Respected rising 200 DMA on closing basis
Current 200 DMA at 43,324
First support: 43,324 (200 DMA)
Bigger support: 43,234 (Yesterday’s low)
Trendline support for Bank Nifty is at 42,800
MARKET: CUES TODAY
Fed minutes don’t indicate any rate cut
US markets needed an excuse for profit taking
US Housing data shows rate hikes have worked
Eventually Fed will have to cut rates
((Show 10 year bond yield intra-day))
TRADE SETUP
FII Net Buy 668.2 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Buy 2286.35 Cr in Stock Futures
FIIs in Index Futures
Nifty +824 cr
Bank Nifty -148 cr
FIIs in Index Futures
Long +3470
Short -2530
FIIs in Index Futures
Long 21%
Short 79%
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,754 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 19,675 (Options based)
First resistance: 19,875
Bigger resistance: 20,000
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Weekly options expiry today
Traders need to respect option boundaries
Resistance: 43,877
Support: 43,445
Traders need to smartly play 43,445-43,877 range
JUDGEMENT DAY LOOMS
Exit polls today
F&O monthly expiry today
Opec+ meeting on output cut today
Last day of month today
Nifty is ending the series at highest point
MARKET: BULLS IN CONTROL
Market broke out yesterday, Bank Nifty led the breakout
Both Bank Nifty and Nifty IT saw big buying yesterday
Nifty IT should get another leg up due to US GDP nos
Dollar and Bond yield not rallying despite strong US GDP
The only worry today is volatility ahead of exit polls
Nifty ended at highest point yesterday
If Nifty starts to trade above 20,162, another trend day possible
DELIVERY VOLUME
HDFC Bank 1500 cr
ICICI Bank 500 cr
Axis Bank 650 cr
Kotak Bank 450 cr
FII Net Short Positioning in Nov Series
Start 89%
Currently 71%
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 20,162 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 20,222 (All-time high)
First support: 19,972 (Options based)
Bigger support: 19,875 (Breakout zone)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 44,420 (Breakout zone)
Bigger support: 44,100 (previous resistance)
First resistance: 44,720 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 45,000 (Psychological level)
THE D-1 DAY IS HERE!
Nifty made series low on day 1, series high yesterday
Nifty set to test 20,000 at open today
TRADE SETUP
FII on Index Futures
Change in OI Positioning
Longs +5560 24%
Shorts +4502 76%
FII short Positions
Start of the Series 89%
Today 76%
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,875 (Previous resistance)
Bigger support: 19,780 (Options based)
First resistance: 20,000 (Psychological number)
Bigger resistance: 20,110 (Options based)
Outside chance of series ending at all-time high of 20,222
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 44,100 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 44,420 (Series high)
First support: 43,740 (Yesterday;s low)
Bigger support: 43,580 (Options based)
MARKET: ALL EYES ON THURSDAY!
Monthly options expiry of Nifty and Bank Nifty
Exit polls of state polls will come out on Thursday
Opec+ meeting on potential production cut on Thursday
FIIs still short with 78% net short positions
If no negative news comes, short covering can be big
A TRENDING SERIES
Last series close 18,857
Series low 18,926 (Day 1)
Series high 19,875 (Last Thursday)
Series close ?
19,875: BACK IN FOCUS
Nifty has hit 19,875 twice this series
19,875 was hit on Nov 16 and Nov 23
Only issue stopping Nifty is the exit poll overhang
For 2 days now, Bank Nifty has outperformed
If Bank Nifty bottoms out, will be big positive for market
This month: Midcap up 8%, Small Cap up 9.3%, Nifty up 3.7%
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,768 (Friday low)
Bigger support: 19,690 (Options based)
First resistance: 19,875 (Series high)
Bigger resistance: 20,010 (Options based)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 43,566 (Friday low)
Bigger support: 43,355 (200 DMA)
First resistance: 44,100 (options based)
Bigger resistance: 44,420 (Series high)
MARKET: SIGNS OF BREAKDOWN
Yesterday’s last 30 mins gave a hint about today’s opening
Bank Nifty collapsed 300 points in last hour after recovery
Bank Nifty looking very weak, can test 200 DMA today
Brent crude again approaching $95/bbl mark
US 10-year yield hits 5 mark, Dollar Index above 106
All-important level to defend on Nifty: 19,480
Midcaps haven’t fallen yet, need to see how they behave
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,512 (yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 19,480 (Oct 9 low)
First resistance: 19,681 (yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 19,750
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 43,558 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 43,191 (200 DMA)
First resistance: 44,058 (Yesterday's high)
Bigger resistance: 44,233 (Options based)
MARKET: SHOWING MASSIVE STRENGTH
Market refusing to go down on barrage of bad news
Market has continuously made higher highs
October series low was higher than September
Whenever market makes bottom with bad news, it stands
Matter of when and not if Nifty hits new high now
Fin Nifty expiry today, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Fin in focus
HDFC Bank ADR implied 2.5-3% gap up in domestic market
HDFC Bank nos way better than what street had feared
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty has now confirmed a higher low
First support: 19,691 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 19,635 (Friday low and option base)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
SBI took support at 200 DMA yesterday
ICICI Bank repeatedly taking support at 20 DMA
Axis Bank bounced back from 50 DMA
Need to see if HDFC Bank can sustain above 200 DMA
HDFC Bank’s current 200 DMA at 1543
First resistance: 44,356 (yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 44,563 (Friday’s high)
BIG WEEK FOR MARKETS
HDFC Bank nos today, crucial day for Bank Nifty
Market has been rewarding “Buy on dips” traders
Brent crude surges back above $90/bbl
Nifty IT again refusing to go down on bad earnings
Possible to see Nifty IT hit 52-week high in next 2 months
If HDFC Bank supports, Bank Nifty can also join the rally
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19635 (Friday low)
Bigger support: 19565(Oct 10 low)
First resistance: 19,805 (Friday high)
Bigger resistance: 19,843 (Series high)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 44,203 (Friday low)
Bigger support: 43,796 (Series low)
First resistance: 44,563 (Friday high)
Bigger resistance: 44,710 (Series high)
Wait for HDFC Bank nos and reaction
Compulsive traders need to play the range
Bank Nifty range: 43,800-44,700