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Anuj Singhal is among India's most popular and seasoned stock market anchors and analysts. His high strike rate on getting Nifty movements right has earned him the nickname "The Nifty Magician"
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WHY WAS CAUTION GIVEN YESTERDAY?
Yesterday’s caution and sell call would work today
Now market is “sell on rally” till 22,124 is crossed
Many indicators of markets were in exuberance zone
600 stocks at new highs normally leads to correction
Forward P/E for midcaps is 27.2X , a 39% premium to average - MOSL
Put Call ratio, India VIX and FII long build-up indicated peak
I am not calling for a bear market but just a correction
It will be healthy for Nifty to correct 5% and Midcaps to fall 20%
Investors should use every 200 point dip on Nifty to add to ETFs
HDFC BANK AND BANK NIFTY: WHAT NEXT?
Start with HDFC Bank ADR
Show HDFC Bank 1 month and 3 month chart
Bernstein on HDFC BK
First YoY EPS decline in a decade, sums up a disappointing quarter
Reported a very weak set of numbers
NIMs stayed flat QoQ
Borrowings grew faster than deposits
Bank had use lower tax expense route to maintain 2% RoA
A 2% YoY decline in EPS for a bank famed for its consistent mid-teens EPS growth is a good summary of terrible quarter
Possible to see HDFC Bank revisit 200 DMA of 1533
Long-term investors will be buyers of HDFC Bank around 1550
Valuations would be very appealing at 1550
Unlikely that HDFC Bank will see a big rally for some time
Any investment in HDFC Bank even at 1550 is a faith decision
Bank Nifty at the risk of making a double top at 48,200
TRADE SETUP
Wipro ADR
Nifty IT 1 month chart
DII Net Sell 369 Cr in Cash (10,126.53 - 10,495.82 Cr)
FII Net Buy 657 Cr in Cash (12,212.14 - 11,555.57 Cr)
FII Net Sell 135 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 1,166 Cr in Stock Futures
FIIs in Index Futures
Longs -1136 66%
Shorts +960 34%
F&O BAN
NEW IN BAN: NATIONALUM, ABFRL, ASHOK LEY
STILL IN BAN: BIOCON, CHAMBALFERT, METROPOLIS, , DELTACORP, POLYCAB, , INDIACEM, , PEL, BANDHANBNK, HINDCOPPER , INDUSTOWER, PVRINOX, ZEEL
OUT OF BAN: BHEL, ESCORTS, SAIL
INDIA VIX closed at 13.57 down 1.81%
Nifty PCR at 1.21 vs 1.52
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Those carrying shorts should exit half at open
For remaining half, keep first 15 min high as stop loss
Highest Put writing at 22,000, premium of Rs 77
Put writer would be in trouble below 21,913
Next support level: 10 DEMA of 21,781
Possible for Nifty to fall to at least 21,781
Buy only on stability above 21,800, stop: 21,750
Any Buy has to be strictly Intra-day with strict SL
January is a month to observe from sidelines
January is not a month for positional trades
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty can fall 1000 points at open today
Show 47,500 Put of today’s expiry
Today will be a lesson on why you should never write naked options
Today’s open will be below 20 DEMA of 47,554 and options base
Next support for Bank Nifty at 50 DEMA of 46,678
No thoughts of buying till any kind of stability emerges
Bank Nifty will be at mercy of fund managers today
If fund managers buy HDFC Bank at lows, recovery may happen
MARKET: CUES FROM HERE
US 10-year yield back down to 3.95%
Next big cue for market is HDFC Bank nos
HDFC Bank nos tomorrow, Fin nifty expiry tomorrow
HDFC Bank’s quarterly update wasn’t too bad
HDFC Bank has corrected after big rally of December
Reliance, HUL nos on Friday
NIFTY IT: SET FOR MORE GAINS
Wipro ADR up 17%, IT set for more gains today
Nifty IT hit 52-w high but life high still 10% away
Nifty set to test 22,000 today
TRADE SETUP
Nifty PCR at 1.43 vs 1.14
F&O BAN: 15 stocks now in ban period
NIFTY OUTLOOK
22,000 is not the right level to make fresh entry
Big resistance: 22,040-22,100
First support: 21,700-21,800 (Options zone)
Big support: 21,500-21,600 (Recent lows)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Very important week for Bank Nifty’s trend
Bank Nifty managed to reclaim 20 and 10 DEMA
First resistance: 47,800-48,000 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 48,400-48,600 (Previous tops)
MARKET : CAUTION SIGNS
Market has given enough warning signs
Bank Nifty has closed below 20 DEMA decisively
Nifty is repeatedly testing 21,500
Many mid and small caps are in total exuberance
12 stocks in F&O ban, there is no fear left in market
Whenever there is no fear, there is room to make mistake
MARKET: SOME IMPORATANT INTERNALS
466 stocks at new high, only 9 stocks at new low
Ratio of 52-w high to 52-w low at 52:1
Normally, market sees big correction at such ratios
Market yesterday confirmed texture of “Sell on rally”
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s texture is now sell on rally
Nifty’s texture will change only on close above 21,764
First support: 21,492-21,517 (Last 2 days low)
Bigger support: 21,350 (20 DEMA)
First resistance: 21,650-21,700 (Options zone)
Bigger resistance: 21,764-21,834 (All time high zone)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has now opened downside till 46,450 (50 DEMA)
Bank Nifty needs to close above 47,450 (20 DEMA) to negate bearishness
No Put writing on Bank Nifty till 47,000
Only hope today is short covering
https://www.youtube.com/live/SDXiGG2pb_Q?si=2fz1vJ2AZ3UhWCgR
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https://www.youtube.com/live/U7bg5BvrQ3E?si=YbS0ABGK_Topd6DM
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SANTA POWELL DELIVERS CHRISTMAS GOODIES
US Fed hints at 3 rate cuts in 2024, markets rejoice
US 10-year bond yield collapses to 4%
Fed says 75 bps, market factors in 1.5% rate cuts in 2024
Powell: Fed doesn’t need recession to cut rates
Powell: Rate cuts will be the topic of discussion going forward
Big rally across risk assets, especially equities
Crude also rallies but still at comfortable levels
MARKET: WHAT NOW?
Banks are likely to lead the rally if FIIs join in
IT will rally big on short covering
Massive shorts were added in IT yesterday after CPI data
Market will now price in a very dovish RBI as well
Year-end rally, pre-budget rally and pre-election rally likely
TRADE SETUP
FIIs in Index Futures
Longs -9662
Shorts +1871
FIIs in Stock futures
Longs -21172
Shorts +14105
MARKET: BIG CUES IN NEXT 2 DAYS
Next 2 days is all about macro and economic cues
India and US inflation data today
Inflation data has surprised on the downside in recent months
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 21,167 (Weekly options based)
Next big resistance: 21,500 (Monthly option based)
First support: 20,923 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 20,850 (Recent low)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has more catch up to play
First support: 47,186 (Yesterday;s low)
Bigger support: 46,800 (Options based)
MARKET: WHAT NEXT?
This month: Nifty up 4.2%, Midcap up 3.5%, Small Cap up 1.8%
This year: Nifty up 16%, Midcap up 41%, Small Cap up 42%
There is a possibility of large cap catch up if FII buying continues
FIIs have been buyers in most of last 10 days
Friday also saw FII buying of Rs 3,632 cr
5 biggest stocks of India have all underperformed this year
This year: Reliance down 3.5% (Excl JFS), TCS up 11%, HDFC Bk up 1.4%
This year: ICICI Bank up 8.7%, Infosys down 5%, HUL down 7%
TRADE SETUP
FII on Index Futures
Change in OI Positioning
Longs +2376 58%
Shorts -2127 42%
FIIs are net long for first time since October 1
Nifty PCR at 1.20 vs 1.34
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 21,006 (Friday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 21,167 (Options based)
Support area: 20,850-80,860(Last 3 days low)
Date Nifty lows
Dec 6 20852
Dec 7 20851
Dec 8 20862
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty Bank has started to outperform Nifty
This month: Nifty Bank up 6.2% vs 4.2% for Nifty
This year: Nifty Bank up 10% vs 16% for Nifty
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BANK NIFTY: SUPPORT OF INDUSIND
IndusInd Bank soothes nerves with decent NIMs
Market’s big fear was all banks will show poor NIMs
One leg of correction might be over in Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty closed at 100 DEMA yesterday
Bank Nifty also trading at 20 Week EMA
Logical target for Bank Nifty in next correction: 44,500
44,500 is the 200 day Simple moving average
MARKET: WHAT NEXT?
Focus on cos delivering good results
Market is rewarding good nos, yesterday Oracle surged 30%
Yesterday’s low is now sacrosanct for Nifty
Markets normally always test panic low to check strength
Over next few days, Nifty is likely to test 21,285 again
TRADE SETUP
FII Long Exposure in Index Futures
% Net Contracts
Series Start 70% +81650
Jan 16 66% +79600
Jan 17 54% +20650
Jan 18 49% -4650
MARKET: STAY NEAR EXIT DOOR
563 BSE stocks at new high, 16 stocks at new low
Markets top out when new high number is around 600
No harm in missing out the last 5% of the rally
From these levels, risk of capital loss is very high
MARKET: CUES FOR TODAY
The biggest cue today would be HDFC Bank results
HDFC Bank’s quarterly update was strong
Fin Nifty expiry today, Bank Nifty had strong close
Bank Nifty still 500 points away from all-time high
TRADE SETUP
FII in Index Futures
Change in OI Positioning
Longs +10697 66%
Shorts -4379 34%
INDIA VIX closed at 13.79 up 5.22% , Nifty PCR at 1.52 vs 1.43
F&O BAN
16 stocks in F&O ban
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support zone: 21,950-22,000
Bigger support zone: 21,750-21,900
First resistance: 22,100-22,200
Bigger resistance: 22,250-22,325
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 48,250-48,350
Bigger resistance: 48,400-48,600
First support: 47,800-48,000
Bigger support: 47,500-47,700
MARKET: IT ALL THE WAY TODAY
Both Infosys and TCS pleasantly surprise street
Nifty IT should now be 25% of one’s portfolio
Both TCS and Infosys have made strong bottom
Infosys and TCS nos show that FY25 could be very strong
Today will be a field day for all IT stocks
Nifty IT should soon hit 52-week high
Reliance has joined the party, led the bulls for 2 days
The only missing piece in the puzzle is Bank Nifty
INFOSYS AND TCS: WHAT NEXT?
Both cos beat the topline in seasonally weak quarter
TCS outperformed on margins
Infosys upped lower end of guidance
Attrition has cooled off for both cos, positive for margins
Deal wins remains impressive for both cos
Brokerages expect 12-13% EPS CAGR over next 3 years
If valuations inch up a bit more, both stocks can outperform
TCS: Top takeaways
Rev and margins beat est, stable performance despite weak seasonality of furloughs
CC Rev growth of 1% QOQ vs est of flat
Margins expand for the 2nd consecitve qtr
EBIT % up 70 bps to 25%
Infosys: Top takeaways
Qtr impacted by seasonality and macro but not as bad as feared
CC Rev growth declines 1% vs est of 1.5-2% decline
Deal wins $3.2b vs $7.7b QOO, but largely inline with $3.8bn average for past four quarters.
FY24 Rev guidance narrowed to 1.5-2% vs 1 – 2.5%
FY24 margin guidance maintained at 20-22%
Attrition at 12.9%, down 170bps QoQ
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 21,700-21,750
Bigger resistance zone: 21,750-21,850
First support zone: 21,550-21,600
All important support zone: 21,450-21,550
Keep stop loss of 21,500 on close for positional longs
Intra-day traders should buy the dips and sell the rallies
Buy zone: 21,600-21,650, stop loss: 21,575
Sell zone: 21,700-21,750, stop loss: 21,764
Chota profit lene ki aadat daalen
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty facing cluster of resistance at 5 and 10 DEMA
5 DEMA at 47,506 and 10 DEMA at 47,655
Bank Nifty protecting falling 20 DEMA of 47,405
Big rally will happen only if Index sustains above 47,655
Sell on rejection of 47,655, stop loss: 47,750
Buy above 47,655, stop loss: day’s low
MARKETS: AT CRUCIAL LEVELS
Both Nifty and Bank Nifty closed at most important support
Nifty defended 21,500 and Bank Nifty 20 DEMA on close
Market’s intra-day texture so far has been “Sell on rally”
Today’s rally will provide perfect test for the markets
If Nifty crosses yesterday’s high, trend will resume upwards
If today’s rally is sold into, market will become slightly weak
MARKET: BASIC CUES FOR TODAY
Big rally in US markets, led by Nasdaq
Nasdaq managed to reclaim 10 and 20 DEMA
Expect Nifty IT to rally 400-600 points today
Nifty IT might reclaim 10 and 20 DEMA today as well
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 21,670 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 21,764 (Yesterday’s high)
First support: 21,492 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 21,413 (Options based)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty added lot of short positions yesterday
Need to see how Fin Nifty’s expiry impacts Index
Too big a range for Bank Nifty to give exact levels
Need to see first hour high and low today
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MARKET: TIME CORRECTION
As expected, market gets positive surprise from inflation
In uptrend, markets keep getting positive triggers
Added trigger for India: Crude prices decline once again
Nifty’s 5 and 10 DEMA beginning to move up
Nifty’s 5 DEMA at 20,870 and 10 DEMA at 20,676
2-3 more days of consolidation will be healthy
Trend is up as long as Nifty is closing above 20,850
Today’s policy likely to mark a shift to dovish stance from Fed
Market is already pricing in rate cuts from May of 2024
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty made an outside bar yesterday
Yesterday’s low and high outside of previous day
First support zone: 20,840-20,860 (Recent low)
Bigger support: 20,750-20,780 (Options zone)
First resistance: 21,038 (Yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 21,150 (Options zone)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 47,004 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 46,800 (Options based)
First resistance: 47,230 (Yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 47,500 (Options based)
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YE HAI BADI WALI TEJI
Iss Teji mein ghabrayein nahi
Large caps ne to abhi chalna shuru kiya hai
Bank Nifty 50,000 se pehle nahi rukne wala
Abhi to FIIs ki 5000 cr roz ki buying aani hai
Hamesha macro event mein directional trade lein
Monday gap up ke baad khareedne par bhi bada paisa bana
800 point ke Gap up ke baad Bank Nifty kareeb 1500 point aur chala hai
Beech beech mein choti moti corrections aayengi
Abhi kuch time ke liye IT nahi, Banks aur old economy par focus karen
MARKET: WHAT TO WATCH
Bank Nifty weekly expiry today
Bank Nifty should hit the targets of 47500-48000 today
((Show ICICI and HDFC Bank del vol here))
((two days delivery buying has been big))
Brent crude slips further to $77/bbl
RBI MPC this week, market expects dovish pause
Indian market going through a fundamental driven rally
Indian market rally has been driven by earnings, macros
BJP’s win has just accelerated the pace of the rally
Remaining FII shorts will be taken to the cleaners
Manufacturing, Banking and consumption will lead the run
TRADE SETUP
DII Net Sell 1,399.18 Cr in Cash (11,467.11- 12,866.29 Cr)
FII Net Buy 5,223.51 Cr in Cash (17,190.73- 11,967.22 Cr)
FII in F&O
FII Net Buy 1938.47 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Buy 920.73 Cr in Stock Futures
FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy 1938 Cr
Long +16777
Short -4863
FII Index Futures Longs
Nov 30 36%
Dec 1 38%
Dec 4 44%
Dec 5 49%
FIIs in Nifty Bank Futures
Dec 1 +581 Cr
Dec 4 +508 Cr
Dec 5 +673 Cr
Nifty PCR at 1.37 vs 1.39
F&O BAN
NEW IN BAN: NIL
STILL IN BAN: DELTACORP, IBULHSGFIN, INDIACEM, ZEEL
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Don’t even think about shorting
Even thinking about shorting is banned for now
Keep aggressive targets and keep trailing stop loss
Every day now, trail stop to previous day’s low
New trailing stop loss: 20,711 (Yesterday’s low)
There is no resistance now, only targets
Nifty is in blue sky territory
Nifty might underperform Bank Nifty due to Nifty IT
Next targets: 21,000 and 21,250
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty should hit the target of 47,500 in first hour
Fresh entry point for Bank Nifty is when intra-day dip ends
Buy on first green bar after intra-day dip ends
((Show Bank Nifty’s yesterday’s chart))
Even possible to hit 48,000 if first hour high is taken out
ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank seeing massive delivery buying
SBI and Kotak also look set to join the party
Bank Nifty has gone through 9-12 months of underperformance
If you short Bank Nifty, go and do 100 push ups as punishment
MARKET: DON’T SHORT
If you want to make big money, stay long
India is in middle of a big bull market
Don’t even think about shorting this market
Stay oriented to domestic economy stocks for next 3-6 months
This market will fully price in Modi 3.0 by May 2024
BANK NIFTY: THE GO TO POCKET?
Moves this year
Nifty 14.3%
Nifty Midcap 40%
Nifty Small Cap 48%
Nifty Auto 40%
Nifty IT 14%
Nifty Bank 8%
NIFTY: WHAT ARE THE NEXT TARGETS?
A new high has been taken out after 2 months
Normally, Nifty adds 1000 points after hitting new high
Possible to see 21,200 by December end in sheer momentum
Pre-budget rally post that can take Nifty to 22,000
A final pre-election rally can take Nifty towards 23,000-24,000
There will be corrections in between, up to 500-600 points
NIFTY: WHAT IS THE BOTTOM?
Recent low of 18,800 should act as a new bottom
In current run, 19,875 is the hard bottom
If your target is 23,000, your stop should be 19,875
A big resistance normally becomes the biggest support
Markets normally don’t breach previous resistance
Remember the mantra: SIP and DIP
TRADE SETUP
Cash Market:
DII +4797 Cr
FII +2073 Cr
FIIs buy for 8th day in Cash, $2 Bn worth purchase so far
DII and FII bars
Delivery volumes
HDFC Bank Rs 3,100 cr
ICICI Bank Rs 2,200 cr
Index Futures OI Change
Nifty +5.9%
Nifty Bank -2%
FIIs buy 1988 Cr in Index Futures
Nifty +1427 Cr
Nifty Bank +508 Cr
FIIs in Index Futures
Long +22915
Short +1110
FII Index Futures Long Exposure
Nov 30 36%
Dec 1 38%
Dec 4 44%
FIIs in Index option
Call short +0.9 lk
Put short +5.3 lk
Nifty PCR at 1.39 vs 1.30
F&O BAN
NEW IN BAN: IBULHSGFIN, INDIACEM, ZEEL
STILL IN BAN: DELTACORP
NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 20,507 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 20,444 (Options based)
First resistance: 20,804 (options based)
Bigger resistance: 21,000 (Psychological)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Fin Nifty’s expiry today, need to see first hour
Market is betting on big FII comeback in HDFC Bk, ICICI bk
Bank Nifty has no resistance now, its about momentum
MARKET: ABKI BAAR 22,000?
A big overhang is out of the way
Don’t even think about shorting this market
We are in middle of biggest ever bull market
Nifty is likely to have a sharp 1000-2000 point rally
FIIs will also be forced to come back
Even if you go wrong, go wrong on long side
Focus on domestic economy stocks from here on
Focus on manufacturing, defence and PSUs
Aaj Bank Nifty mein 1000-1500 point ki rally ho sakti hai
MARKET: KITNA DISCOUNTED HAI?
Nobody had discounted 3-1 for BJP
3-0 in Hindi heartland is a major positive
Even possible for BJP to win 350+ on its own in 2024
Even Telangana results a positive for BJP
For market now there is no domestic risk
The only risk for market is from global front
AB RETAIL KYA KARE?
Ye mat socho ki miss ho gaya
5, 10 aur 20 saal ka nazaria rakhiye
20 saal mein Nifty 4 lakh – kya aap invested rahenge?
India is world’s fastest growing major economy
Easiest way to participate in this is via Nifty ETFs
If not Nifty ETFs, can even invest via mutual funds
If doing direct equity, focus only on quality
From here on, the next big move will come in large caps
Focus on domestic economy stocks from here on
Focus on manufacturing, defence and PSUs
MARKET SETUP
Nifty: 6 months before Central Election results
2014 +19%
2019 +11%
#Motilal report
DII cash
FII cash
DII, FII bars
FIIs have now bought for 7 days in a row
FIIs buy 702 Cr in Index Futures
FIIs in Index Futures
Contracts Exposure
Long +6950 38%
Short -2855 62%
Remaining FII shorts will be cleaned out by markets
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty likely to open above 20,500
This market is not about level based trading
Try to get in on any small dip/consolidation
Don’t get in with approach to make money today itself
Possible to see 21,000 before any small correction comes
Don’t think about shorting this market at all
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Aaj Bank Nifty mein 1000-1500 point ki rally ho sakti hai
ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank are likely to lead
If FIIs start to buy, Bank Nifty will outperform
Next stop for Bank Nifty: All-time high
Buy on every dip, small aur big
TRIPLE DOSE
Exit Polls
GDP
Global cues
Biggest cue today: Exit polls indicate best case outcome
Good chance of BJP winning both MP and Rajasthan
Second big cue: India’s Q2 GDP grows at 7.6%
Third big cue: Global cues positive, big rally in Dow Jones
Only risk for market is exuberance at all-time high
NIFTY SERIES MOVES
Nov 23 +1276 Pts
Oct 23 -666 Pts
Sep 23 +270 Pts
Aug 23 -406 Pts
Jul 23 +688 Pts
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Only resistance: 20,222 (All-time high)
Need to see what Nifty does at all-time high
Normal instinct is to book profit at all-time high
First support: 20,133 (Yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 20,015 (Yesterday's low)
BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 44,765 (Yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 45,000 (Psychological)
First support: 44,481 (Yesterday's close)
Bigger support: 44,259 (Yesterday’s low)