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To understand current profit realization significance, examining it cyclically reveals how market maturity shapes investor behavior. The 90-day SMA of net realized profit, normalized by market cap, shows profit-taking has grown less euphoric over time as Bitcoin matures.
Historical comparison shows declining intensity:
- 2015-2018: ~25 months, peaking above 0.4% of market cap
- 2020-2022: ~20 months, peaking around 0.15%
- Current cycle (Nov 2023): 18 months with two peaks near 0.1%
This trend suggests profit-taking remains significant but more tempered, possibly indicating a shift from boom-bust euphoria to structured capital rotation in a maturing asset class.
#BTC gave a flip of the resistance in H4 TF but in Daily TF its a rejection. Overall, in HTF price moving sideways alot and forming small pattern which ended up being invalidated. War tensions also going on, so need to wait for the further price action to develop.
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As Bitcoin retreats from $111.8k, selling pressure comes mainly from intra-cycle seasoned holders realizing substantial gains. The 7-day SMA of daily profit realization (excluding intra-entity flows) peaked at $1.47B per day last week, highlighting intense capital rotation.
This marks the fifth wave this cycle where daily profit-taking exceeded $1B—events that often coincide with local tops or slowdowns if incoming demand can't absorb the selling scale. This tests the market's resilience against elevated selling pressure.
#US30 UPDATE :
#US30 gave a tap into the 43,000 area and rejected precisely with a wick. Currently, its dropping and might continue lower till 41,150 and eventually 40,800 as support. You can consider taking shorts on a retest.
Here's the Analysis of #AVA :
#AVA is been in a consolidation market and moving between the key support zone of $0.45 - $0.47 and key resistance $0.75 - $0.78. Price is been in a tradable range, song short-term longs can be taken from the support and short-sells only after the H4 candle close.
#DXY UPDATE :
#DXY gave a perfect drop as per the analysis towards the major support. Index exactly reacted from the support and now holding above it. Its new range now, we can move towards the major resistance and can print a new lower low again.
Here's the Analysis of #KNC :
#KNC stuck up inside the sideways market between the major support zone and major resistance zone of $0.29 - $0.30 and $0.39 - $0.40 respectively. Price forming head and shoulder and inverse head and shoulder inside it. Bearish break can happen and trade can be taken along the breakout.
#MTL gave a shallow closing of the bear flag and dropped around 7.3% in favor. Still price have some room to move all the way down, targeting towards the major support zone.
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Here's the Analysis of #BAND :
#BAND is been moving in a sideway market, and now on a major area of support too, around $0.58 - $0.61. Well, overall market is in a downtrend so, we can expect bearish move and trade can be taken once a break and close happens.
#HOOK dropped hard from the resistance drawn but the top resistance worked perfectly. If you took shorts from 1st one then its in 13% in profits and from the top one its 19.5% in profits. The support zone $0.092 - $0.095 is the partials TP area.
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#BTC dropped lower after tapping from the supply zone, with that it broke the support too. Now its trading below $105,000, and can drop a bit lower. towards the $100,000 area. Its back inside the range, need to wait for a breakout to happen.
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Bitcoin rallied to a new high of $111.8k, surpassing January 2025's ATH, before correcting to $103.2k and signaling a potential momentum pause. The Cumulative Volume Delta Heatmap shows this was a spot-led rally with clear accumulation clusters at $81-85k, $93-96k, and $102-104k—zones that may now act as short-term support.
Top buyers from Q1 2025, who held through the sub-$80k drawdown, are being tested again as price consolidates sideways. This analysis examines the fading demand momentum, forces draining market strength, and potential support levels if weakness persists.
#BTC finally been retracing after a double top kind a pattern. Also, it was on the clean supply zone and retraced all the way lower towards the support zone drawn. Well, expectations are bullish now once it taps and rejects the area.
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May 2025 US CPI came in at 2.4%, just under the 2.5% forecast. This slight cooling of inflation, down from 2.3% last month, could bring market relief.
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#POWR touched the resistance line breaking the short-term supporting trendline. Price did attempted a breakout, and a break can lead in potential buys setups, but a flip of $0.20 will be a good confirmation to it.
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#GOLD UPDATE :
#GOLD moved and printed a new higher high, before tapping the support. Now, the support zone at $3380 standing strong and might push further higher high.
Here's the Analysis of #FORTH :
#FORTH is been on a very major support zone of $$2.17 - $2.44 and forming a triangle pattern over it. This seems be a good area of interest for buys and sells, but need to wait for the price to breakout either side, to take the calls. Use H4 close or Daily close as strong confirmation.
Another 10,100 #Bitcoin bought by Strategy
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#BTC closed the weekly candle indecisive, with wicks a huge wick on body sides, no to minor body. Its a very indecisive and currently, moving higher trying to flip the resistance, we need to see a Daily candle closing healthy either side.
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Here's a condensed version:
With substantial Bitcoin supply turnover during two ATH pushes over six months, tracking recent investor behavior becomes crucial. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis captures the average acquisition price for coins held under 155 days, currently at $97.1k.
Standard deviation bands provide statistical context: the +1σ band at $114.8k signals overbought/breakout conditions, while the -1σ band at $83.2k marks elevated downside risk. These three levels ($114.8k, $97.1k, $83.2k) define short-term sentiment boundaries, with breaks above or below likely shaping the next market direction.
#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on WEEKLY TF, had a weekly closing with a good rejection candle and this week also, price just moved up and retraced all the way down and now having a rejection candle stick. The another rejection candle means, buyer is bit stronger than seller and can over it soon. Expecting bullish bias for next week not strongly but it can.
With long-term holders selling and lacking strong upside catalysts above $111.8k, correction probability builds. The Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) Quantiles framework helps identify support levels by analyzing the cost basis of spent coins across 100 percentiles.
Key levels include the 0.95 quantile (top 5% of spent supply), 0.85 quantile (top 15%), and 0.75 quantile (top 25%). Historically, absolute euphoria occurs above the 0.95 quantile, sideways bull phases between 0.85-0.95, and bearish periods below 0.75.
Currently, the 0.95 quantile at ~$103.7k provides first support. If selling persists, the 0.85 quantile at $95.6k offers structural support, or if breached, confirms broader risk reset.
#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on Daily TF, gave a good move up throughout the week and lead a drop too after hitting the key supply zone. Price is back inside the range and nothing can be done until is moved any side of the zone, only scalping possible as of now.
To understand Bitcoin's move beyond $111k, the CBD Heatmap from June 2022's cycle bottom reveals a clear distribution pattern by past accumulators. Supply-dense zones that previously supported the rally through sideways consolidation have flipped into active selling zones as earlier holders take profits.
The most notable selling pressure comes from cohorts who accumulated at $25k-31k and $60k-73k ranges. These groups, having held through multiple volatility phases, are now creating supply overhang that appears to be capping further upside in the short term.
Breaking the support now, take it accordingly.
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Here's the Analysis of #MTL :
#MTL is been kept on drawing its lower low and now on a small bear flag formation, which can give a bearish break and push it further low. Major support is at $0.60 - $0.64, which could be targets for shorts.
#PORTO dropped after a short pullback, as its a strong sell move down, so its expected. Price gave a new lower low and moved around 11% in profits. Retracement might some, but its on a next move down for a new lower low, so hold with breakeven stops.
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Here's the Analysis of #SCRT :
#SCRT stuck up in a huge consolidation since 4 months and currently, lying on a major support zone of $0.16 - $0.17. We can see a potential bounce back towards the resistance area at $0.29 - $0.31. Price might have difficulty to reach other end, but can take some scalp move from here.
Past Week Market Update
Digital asset markets remain strong with Bitcoin consolidating near its $109k ATH. Elevated prices have boosted investor profitability, driving increased profit-taking and capital inflows that pushed Realized Cap above $900B—a historic milestone highlighting market liquidity depth. Short-Term Holders have realized over $11.4B in profits this month as their portfolios improved.
Ethereum surged from $1,800 to $2,700 following the Pectra upgrade, returning the average holder to unrealized profit and providing significant relief. The $2,400–$2,900 range remains critical, serving as both resistance and a potential breakout zone for sustained upward momentum.
#BTC kept on sustaining near the $110,000 area and kinda small consolidation going on. Well, overall, bias are bullish and can easily move further higher, once we have some new catalyst in it.
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