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The Cradle is an online news magazine covering West Asian geopolitics from within.
Trump's war on Iran will END dollar dominance | Ep. 151
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Riyadh and Hezbollah: A rapprochement forged in fire
Lebanon has become the unlikely stage for a slow Saudi pivot toward pragmatism, as regional rifts with allies and foes alike compel Riyadh to recalculate its hard lines.
By Tamjid Kobaissy
❗️Israel spent $275 million on deadly pager terror attack in Lebanon, killing dozens and wounding thousands
Israel spent an estimated $275 million on its 2024 pager terrorist attack in Lebanon, which killed 42 people and wounded more than 3,400. According to a report from Haaretz, the operation involved booby-trapped pager-style communication devices. Retired Brigadier General Gil Pinchas, a former financial adviser to the Israeli army chief of staff, described it to Israeli media as a multi-year security investment requiring complex intelligence and logistical preparations, with costs spanning years of technological development and infrastructure.
Although Israel argued that terrorist attacks were aimed at Hezbollah members, which remains a violation of international law, the blasts were indiscriminate, killing civilians as well, including a nine-year-old girl. The 17 September mass explosions were followed by a second wave the next day involving weaponized walkie-talkies. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved the operation, with his spokesman later confirming responsibility after Israel initially declined to comment.
Following the attacks, Netanyahu gifted 'golden pagers' to US officials, including US President Donald Trump.
Russia's Lukoil moves to sell most foreign assets to US firm
Lukoil did not disclose the potential sale price, with negotiations ongoing with other prospective buyers
❗️Brazilian federal police detained a suspect today who is allegedly linked to Islamic State and accused of planning a suicide bombing, according to a source with knowledge of the case who spoke to Reuters.
In a statement, police said an operation carried out with support from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation resulted in the arrest of "a man under investigation for preparing acts of terrorism and being part of an international terrorist organization."
❗️Israeli settlers torch Palestinian Bedouin homes near occupied Jerusalem as land seizures intensify
Israeli settlers have set fire to Palestinian homes in the Bedouin village of Khallat al-Sidra near Mukhmas, northeast of occupied Jerusalem, in the latest escalation of settler violence backed by Israeli military presence. According to WAFA, settlers blocked the village’s only access road before torching several homes, after which Israeli forces entered the area with multiple military vehicles.
The attack is part of a pattern of repeated assaults on Palestinian Bedouin communities, including the destruction of homes and barns, vandalism and seizure of solar panels and surveillance cameras, and the burning of vehicles. Residents and foreign solidarity activists have also been injured in previous incidents, while Israeli forces have reportedly pressured activists to leave.
On Thursday morning, settlers also targeted a Bedouin community near Jaba', in what local sources say is aimed at seizing land to expand the Adam settlement and link it with the Binyamin settlement. Palestinian officials warn these coordinated attacks, carried out under Israeli protection, form part of a broader policy of forced displacement to facilitate settlement expansion. The UN and rights groups report that more than 33 Palestinian Bedouin communities have been uprooted since the start of the start of the genocide in Gaza.
❗️Iran’s Revolutionary Guard naval forces are set to conduct drills involving live ammunition in the Strait of Hormuz on 1 and 2 February, according to a report by Press TV on Thursday.
The waterway is considered the most critical global passage for oil shipments, linking major Gulf energy producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
Israeli army raids uproot 25,000 Palestinians from West Bank's Tulkarem Camp
Israeli army violence against Palestinians continues unabated, as official data shows over 99 percent of the military’s crimes go unindicted
❗️Iran unveils underwater missile tunnels, warns Strait of Hormuz could be targeted if attacked
Iran has revealed a network of underwater missile tunnels, warning that the Strait of Hormuz would not remain safe if the country were attacked, amid escalating tensions with the US. Footage aired on Iranian state television showed IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri inside the submarine missile facilities, displaying rows of cruise missiles reportedly capable of striking targets over 1,000 kilometres (621 miles) away with smart guidance systems.
Tangsiri said the tunnels were developed to confront US vessels operating in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman, emphasizing that Iranian forces are prepared to respond to threats “at any level and in any geography.” The announcement coincides with Iran’s claim of “complete dominance” over the Strait of Hormuz across air, surface, and subsurface domains, a vital waterway carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption.
Mohammed Akbarzadeh, political deputy of the IRGC Navy, highlighted Iran’s ability to track vessels in real time and stressed that Tehran does not seek war but is fully prepared. He warned that neighboring states would be treated as hostile if their territory were used in an attack on Iran, while Iranian media showcased footage of the USS Abraham Lincoln alongside simulated targeting, signaling Tehran’s readiness to respond decisively.
❗️Israeli occupation forces arrest former Palestinian prisoner Youssef al-Shalabi during a raid on the town of Attil, north of Tulkarem in the occupied West Bank.
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❗️Trump weighs targeted strikes on Iran to bolster riots
US President Donald Trump is considering measures against Iran, which could involve targeted attacks on security forces and leaders to motivate riots, according to Reuters citing multiple sources.
Two US sources familiar with the discussions said Trump aimed to create conditions for "regime change."
Trump is reportedly exploring options to strike commanders and institutions that Washington blames for the violence, to boost rioters’ confidence in challenging government and security facilities. One source and a US official noted that Trump has not yet finalized a decision on whether to pursue a military approach.
A second US source said that Trump’s aides are also considering a larger strike intended to have a long-term effect, potentially targeting ballistic missiles capable of reaching US allies in West Asia or Iran’s nuclear enrichment programs.
❗️Member of Hamas’s Political Bureau, Hussam Badran, to 'Sanad':
• "The movement is making serious national efforts, alongside national and Islamic forces and factions, to facilitate the transfer of governmental responsibilities to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, in a way that ensures the continuity of public services and serves the Palestinian people in the Strip."
• "Relevant bodies involved technically and administratively in governmental work have completed the necessary preparations and put all logistical requirements in place to ensure a professional and serious handover process."
• "Hamas is keen to ensure the success of this role in all its details, with close follow-up from the broader national framework, and the movement is moving forward with full determination to make the next phase a success."
• "We will continue to provide all forms of administrative and technical support to the National Committee to ensure the continuity of governmental work and prevent any administrative vacuum, alongside careful and continuous monitoring of all aspects of the transitional phase."
Erdogan offers to 'mediate' Iran–US talks as tensions escalate
Ankara is preparing its own border security contingencies on its shared border with Iran as Trump threatens 'massive' attack
US officials meet Canadian separatists pushing for Alberta secession: Report
Talks were said to include a request for a $500-million loan to fund the secession, as well as the construction of new pipelines bypassing the Canadian government
❗️The Nasser Medical Complex reports that a Palestinian was wounded by Israeli sniper fire near the Abu Hamid roundabout, outside areas of Israeli deployment in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza.
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❗️Iranian army spokesperson:
– "The necessary plans have been prepared regarding a possible attack by the enemy. We have appropriate and proportionate responses for all the different scenarios that the enemy might undertake."
– "If Trump thinks he can carry out a quick operation, then tweet two hours later that the operation is over ... this is absolutely out of the question."
– "The scope of the war will encompass the entire geography of the region, from the Zionist entity to the countries where US bases are located."
EU formally designates IRGC terror group as European states fall into line
Previously reluctant EU members, including France, Spain, and Italy, have now come on board with the designation
VIDEO | Israeli forces fire large amounts of tear gas along Airport Road in the vicinity of Qalandia refugee camp, north of occupied Jerusalem.
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BREAKING | Local sources report two killed in an Israeli drone strike on Al-Maghazi refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip.
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❗️Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called Europe’s move to label the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a “terrorist” organization, along with efforts to push snapback sanctions, a strategic mistake that fuels tensions rather than prevents war in the region. In a post on X, he accused Europe of hypocrisy for failing to act over the situation in Gaza while targeting Iran, saying these actions harm European interests, reflect a decline in its global role, and risk serious consequences for regional stability.
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❗️US tells UN Gaza demilitarization will include internationally funded weapons buyback
The US told the UN Security Council on Wednesday that plans to demilitarize Gaza would involve dismantling weapons under a mutually agreed mechanism, including a program financed by international donors to buy back arms.
According to US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz, Washington, together with 26 countries that have joined Trump’s so-called Board of Peace and in coordination with the Palestinian National Committee it oversees, will exert pressure on Hamas to disarm.
"Hamas must not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly or indirectly, in any form, period," he told the 15-member council.
"International, independent monitors will supervise a process of demilitarization of Gaza to include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning and supported by an internationally funded buyback and reintegration program," he added.
❗️Gaza Ministry of Health:
– "This afternoon, Al-Shifa Medical Complex received 15 bodies of martyrs who were released by the Israeli occupation, through the International Committee of the Red Cross. This brings the total number of martyrs’ bodies received to 360."
– "The Ministry affirms that its medical teams continue to handle the bodies in accordance with approved medical procedures and protocols, in cooperation with the relevant authorities and committees, in preparation for completing the processes of examination, documentation, and handover to the families."
❗️Local sources in Gaza report that the bodies of 15 Palestinians have arrived at Al-Shifa Hospital after Israel released them as part of the exchange deal, following its recovery of the body of soldier Ran Gvili from the Strip.
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VIDEO | An armed Israeli settler opens fire on Palestinians near Al-Mughayyir, northeast of Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank.
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❗️Russia signals readiness to evacuate staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant
Russia is prepared to evacuate its personnel from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant if the situation requires, according to Alexei Likhachev, head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation, as cited by TASS.
The facility, Iran’s only operating nuclear power plant, was built by Moscow and employs hundreds of Russian specialists.
❗️Qatar is supplying the Lebanese Army with 162 military vehicles as part of a major aid package announced in April 2025, aimed at strengthening military operations, border security, and stability amid Lebanon’s economic crisis. The assistance also includes a $60 million salary support grant and ongoing fuel supplies. The vehicle rollout began today, with deliveries continuing into the year.
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❗️Israel’s military prosecution of Palestinian minors continues, with at least 350 children still behind bars
Since the ceasefire took effect on 11 October 2025, Israel has freed at least 290 Palestinian prisoners in two batches, following 15 months of relentless bombardment of Gaza. Yet these releases barely dent a system that continues to detain children as a matter of policy.
At least 350 Palestinian children remain imprisoned, many without charge. Since 2016, Israeli law has allowed children as young as 12 to be held criminally responsible and prosecuted, expanding the scope of incarceration to include minors accused of so called serious offenses. The law paved the way for lengthy prison sentences against children, as in the case of Ahmed Manasra, arrested at 13 and later sentenced to years in prison under the revised statute.
These children are tried not in civilian courts but in military ones, under a dual legal system that subjects Palestinians to military law while Israeli settlers are governed by civil law. Human rights groups have long documented nighttime arrests, interrogations without guardians, extended pretrial detention, and widespread denial of due process.
❗️EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC):
"If you act as a terrorist, you shall be treated as a terrorist."
VIDEO | Israeli forces fire tear gas canisters toward Airport Road, north of occupied Jerusalem.
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❗️Israeli raids in the occupied West Bank have forcibly displaced 25,000 Palestinians from Tulkarem and Nour Shams alone
Tulkarm Deputy Governor Faisal Salameh confirmed that the ongoing aggression for over a year has forced around 25,000 Palestinians to become displaced from the Tulkarem and Nour Shams refugee camps. They were compelled to leave their homes due to raids, the destruction of infrastructure, and the near-total closure of the camps.
Israel launched a military operation in Tulkarem on 27 January 2025, which, according to local data, caused one of the largest waves of forced displacement in the occupied West Bank in years.
Salameh explained that the first wave of displacement forced thousands of families to seek shelter in schools, mosques, hospitals, and charity offices, before the displacement extended over a longer period.