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📈 All the latest updates on the Stock Market: signals, news, and everything that might move the narrative — all in one place. 😉 We keep an eye on the price; you can just watch us do it. Buy Ads: @JamesCookTg
🌐 Weekly Market Review 04.08.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔽S&P 500 -2.1%
🔽DOW JONES -2.1%
🔽NASDAQ -3.3%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔽STOXX 600 -2.9%
🔽DAX -4.1%
🔽FTSE 100 -1.3%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵 ASIA
🔽HANG SENG -0.4%
🔼SHANGHAI +0.5%
🔽NIKKEI 225 -4.7%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔽BRENT -4.4%
🔼GOLD +3.4%
🔽BITCOIN -9.5%
🔼VIX +43%
⭐️ KEY DRIVERS
⏺US stocks crashed at the end of the week as fresh macro data showing signs of possible recession. On Thursday The ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. According to July jobs report, that came on Friday, the US economy added fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% - nearly 3-year high. Those additional signs of a slowdown in the labor market are likely to feed recession fears and rate-cut expectations. Nasdaq entered correction zone after the Friday close, while 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest since December as investors flooded into bonds for safety on the fear the Federal Reserve made a mistake this week by keeping interest rates at current levels.
⏺Federal Reserve met expectations with their rate decision on Wednesday. Officials held short-term interest rates steady at 5.25-5.50%, but indicated that inflation is getting closer to its 2% target. Fed chief Jerome Powell said a reduction in US interest rates is on the table in September if inflation slows further like it has in the past several months. After Friday crash economists bet on three cut till the end of 2024, with two cuts likely 50 bp.
⏺Big tech didn’t bring too much positive with their fresh earnings. Microsoft beat on the top and bottom lines, but missing on cloud revenue expectations Amazon fell more than 8% Friday after the retail and cloud giant Q3 forecast fell short of expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Apple reported beat on a revenue, but sales of the iPhone fell from a year earlier, down 0.9% to $39.3 billion. Meta shares were the only one to bring positive reporting beat of Wall Street expectations and offering a rosy revenue forecast.
⏺Japanese indexes lost more 5% on economic concerns and BoJ rate hike. Nikkei and Topix driven down by signs of cooling in the U.S. economy and an interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan. The fall on Friday, which was the largest since the tsunami that triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, wiped away almost $600 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yen is rising this week to a four-month high against USD, which in turn threaten to erode the earnings of exporters who drove the nation’s equities higher for much of this year.
⏺The US national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time in history. The House of Representatives committee report said that the current US national debt corresponds to $104 thousand per person, $266 thousand per household or $483 thousand per child. The material also indicates that since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the national debt has increased by $7.25 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2034, the United States' national debt will increase to $50.7 trillion, or 122% of the country's GDP. According to the IMF, if current approaches to fiscal policy are maintained, the US public debt will double by 2053.
⏺Gold exceeded $2,500 per ounce for the first time in history. Wednesday statements by the Federal Reserve about an imminent rate cut triggered another jump in gold prices. An important growth factor is geopolitics. A very problematic presidential election is brewing in the United States, and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is adding fuel to the fire
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⚠️ Wall Street Experts Expect Sharper Fed Rate Cuts Amid Recession Signals
Wall Street banks are calling on the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates based on recent data that the labor market is cooling
🔴 Economists at Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. revised its forecasts for US monetary policy on Friday after data showed the US unemployment rate rose again in July. Everyone is calling for earlier or larger interest rate cuts.
©️ Citigroup:
Rate cuts by 50 bp in September and November and by 25 bp in December, although previously they predicted a rate cut of 25 bp at all three meetings. The Fed will then cut rates by 25 bp at each meeting until mid-2025, bringing its policy range to 3-3.25%.
50 bp rate cuts in September and November, then 25 bp cuts at each subsequent meeting; in addition, there are compelling reasons to act before the next meeting on September 18.
🔴Japanese Indexes Plummet More 5% On Economic Concerns
↘️ Nikkei and Topix driven down by signs of cooling in the U.S. economy and an interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan.
🇯🇵 The fall, which was the largest since the tsunami that triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, wiped away almost $600 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
🇯🇵 The yen is rising this week to a four-month high against USD on the new outlook for interest rates, which in turn threaten to erode the earnings of exporters who drove the nation’s equities higher for much of this year. Stocks of exporters like Honda Motor Co., Hitachi Ltd. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd were brutally hammered on Friday
🇯🇵 A rotation out of large tech shares exacerbated the slump as signs of strain in the US economy led traders to reconsider whether Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve is wise to hold off cutting interest rates before September. Tech shares were among the biggest decliners on the Nikkei, with Tokyo Electron Ltd. tumbling 12% and Screen Holdings Co. retreating 13%.
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🥇 Gold Exceeded $2,500 Per Ounce For The First Time In History
🔼Yesterday's statements by the Federal Reserve about an imminent rate cut triggered another jump in gold prices.
❕Traditionally, gold rises in anticipation of low interest rates. At the same time, gold did not stop growing even when rate cuts were delayed for many months in a row.
🇵🇸An important growth factor is geopolitics. A very problematic presidential election is brewing in the United States, and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is adding fuel to the fire - Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed by Israel on Wednesday in Iran.
🎯 Bank of America analysts expect gold prices to reach to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12-18 months. JP Morgan has more restrained forecasts - $2,600 by the end of 2025.
💸 Over the past 12 months, gold has risen in price by more than 20%. Gold's gains paralleled a sharp fall in U.S. Treasurys with yields sliding across the curve, as the market is now pricing in a guaranteed chance of a 25 basis point cut.
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🟦 Microsoft Falls After Cloud Numbers Disappoint In Q4 Earnings
👀 Microsoft (MSFT) released fresh earnings after the bell on Tuesday, beating on the top and bottom lines, but missing on cloud revenue expectations.
Microsoft: fiscal Q4 earnings:
💻Revenue: $64.7 bln (+15% YoY)
💻Net Income: $22.0 bln (+10% YoY)
💻Microsoft Cloud: $36.8 bln (+22% YoY)
💻Microsoft 365 subs: 82.5 mln (+10% YoY)
⏺Microsoft's overall cloud revenue came in at $36.8 billion, in line with expectations of $36.8 billion, but the company's Intelligent Cloud revenue, which includes its Azure services, fell short, coming in at $28.5 billion versus expectations of $28.7 billion.
⏺While Microsoft's cloud business missed expectations, overall revenue still rose 15% year over year. Intelligent Cloud revenue, meanwhile, increased 19% year over year.
According to UBS analyst Karl Keirstead, Microsoft has also been grabbing more market share from Google and Amazon.
🗣“In terms of share shifts among AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, the most consistent theme in this round of checks was the number of customers and partners that cited share gains by Microsoft resulting from its early lead on the AI front,”
☄️ The US National Debt Exceeded $35 Trillion For The First Time In History
🏆The US national debt has updated its record. In January 2024, the debt volume exceeded $34 trillion for the first time. Last June, US President Joe Biden suspended the debt limit until January 2025.
🔴The House of Representatives committee report said that the current US national debt corresponds to $104 thousand per person, $266 thousand per household or $483 thousand per child. The material also indicates that since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the national debt has increased by $7.25 trillion.
💰The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2034, the United States' national debt will increase to $50.7 trillion, or 122% of the country's GDP. According to the IMF, if current approaches to fiscal policy are maintained, the US public debt will double by 2053.
😓 The US spends more to finance its national debt due to higher interest rates. Net interest payments on debt are expected to be 3.2% of GDP in 2024, the highest since 1991, according to Bloomberg.
🗣IMF called the growth of US government debt a threat to the global and American economy, so there is a need to stop the continuing increase in the ratio of government debt to GDP.
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🇺🇸 US Earnings Season Continues
According to FactSet, 41% of the S&P500 companies reported so far:
⏺ 78% beat EPS expectations, still above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%
⏺ Aggregate EPS of S&P 500 rose 9.8% annually. Among the leaders are communication services (+20.7%) and information technologies (+17.2%), while the main lagger is materials (-10.3%).
🔔 Key earnings this week:
Monday:
McDonald's, Philips, Tilray
Tuesday:
Procter & Gamble, Merck, AMD, Pfizer, PayPal, Pinterest, Starbucks
Wednesday:
Meta, Mastercard, T-Mobile, QUALCOMM, Boeing, Humana
Thursday:
Apple, Amazon, Toyota, Shell, Intel, Snap, Moderna, Booking, Crocs
Friday:
Exxon, Chevron, Frontier, Fluor
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🌐 Weekly Market Review 28.07.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔽S&P 500 -0.8%
🔼DOW JONES +0.7%
🔽NASDAQ -2.1%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔼STOXX 600 +0.6%
🔼DAX +1.4%
🔼FTSE 100 +1.6%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵 ASIA
🔽HANG SENG -2.3%
🔽SHANGHAI -3.1%
🔽NIKKEI 225 -6.0%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔽BRENT -4.6%
🔽GOLD -0.6%
🔼BITCOIN +1.2%
🔽VIX -0.8%
⭐️ KEY DRIVERS
⏺Tesla and Alphabet earnings bring chaos
On Wednesday US market tumbled for the worst day since 2022 as Tesla, Alphabet dipped on earnings. Although Alphabet reported a top and bottom line beat, Youtube advertising revenue fell below estimates. Meanwhile Tesla suffered huge profit drop and delayed robotaxi presentation. That day NASDAQ lost more 3% bringing bad expectations of next-week reports of some more megacaps: Apple, Microsoft and Amazon
⏺Fresh economic data brings more confidence in September rate cut
US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q2. That was not only a significant rebound from the 1.4% pace logged in the first three months of the year, but it surpassed the 1.9% growth forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On a monthly basis, headline PCE (an inflation reading that is preferred by policymakers) rose 0.1% and by 2.5% from a year ago.
⏺PBOC brings unexpected rate cuts
The PBOC cut its medium-term lending facility and reduced its seven-day reverse repo rate (a key short-term policy rate). Shortly afterward, Chinese banks cut their one- and five-year loan prime rates by 10 basis points to 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively, making it cheaper for consumers to take out mortgages and other loans. The string of rate cuts pointed to Beijing’s growing urgency to support growth after China’s GDP undershot expectations in the Q2.
⏺Nikkei falls for 5 days amid strengthening yen
The yen strengthened for the third successive week, continuing to hurt the profit outlook for Japanese exporters. This follows indications that the government intervened in the foreign exchange markets earlier in July to prop up the Japanese currency. Japanese technology stocks remained under pressure as the shares of U.S. mega-cap technology companies continued to sell off.
⏺US market rotation still on
A performance shift within the U.S. equity market extended into a third week, with large caps trailing the previously lagging small-cap segment and growth equities underperforming the value style. Over the past three weeks, a large-cap benchmark fell a cumulative 1.5% while a small-cap index jumped 11.5%.
⏺VIX spiked and ended weekly flat
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) moved up near three-month highs this week, primarily driven by a sell-off in tech stocks. Volatility ramped up this week as the VIX hit its highest levels since April, the S&P 500 saw its first 2% down day in nearly a year and the NASDAQ saw its biggest one-day decline since 2022. However, VIX surge was short lived, as it subsequently retreated amid shifting investor sentiment, and it closed on Friday slightly below it closing level of the previous week.
⏺Oil slump
Amid expectations of sagging global demand, the price of U.S. crude oil fell nearly 4% for the week to around $77 per barrel, the lowest level in about seven weeks. As recently as July 3, oil was trading near $84 per barrel.
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🔉 Buffet Made Huge Sale of Bank of America Stock First Time Since 2019
🛒 Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold $2.3 billion worth of Bank of America shares in six days. The company began reducing its position in Bank of America for the first time since 2019:
1⃣ July 17-19 sold $1.5 billion worth at an avg price of $43.56
2⃣ July 22-24 sold $802.5 million at an avg price of $42.46
👌As a result, the conglomerate’s share in Bank of America fell to 12.5% from 12.81% at the end of Q1(according to the WhaleWisdom service).
ℹ️ The holding may have begun to take profits in the bank's shares after they updated the highs of March 2022 during trading on July 16, reaching $44.4 per share. In total, since the beginning of the year, quotes have increased by about 25%.
ℹ️ Berkshire Hathaway still owns 980.1 million shares of BofA, worth about $41.3 billion. By comparison, Apple's stake is worth about $172.5 billion.
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☄️ Apple Out Of Top-5 Smartphone Sellers In China
🍏 Apple left the top five of the Chinese smartphone market in the 2nd quarter of 2024, as local manufacturers were able to impose competition.
⚠️ This happened for the first time in 4 years. Apple sold just 9.7 million smartphones in China last quarter, despite cutting prices for its products, according to research firm Canalys.
📊 Top-5 smartphone vendors in China in Q2_2024 (compared in units shipped):
1⃣ Vivo 13.1 mln units
2⃣ Oppo 11.3 mln units
3⃣ Honor 10.7 mln units
4⃣ Huawei 10.6 mln units
5⃣ Xiaomi 9.7 mln units
🔽 The iPhone maker, which was the third-largest smartphone vendor in the second quarter last year, dropped to the sixth spot with about 9.7 million in shipments
🖥 Localization of Apple’s Intelligence services in mainland China will be an important move in the next 12 months, as Chinese brands are aggressively incorporating generative AI into their products.
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🇮🇳 India Is Ready To Take Away China's Status As The Largest Emerging Market
🔼India is emerging as one of the fastest growing markets in the world in local currency terms and has kept pace with the US in terms of growth over the past decades.
🔴 This aggressive pace has allowed India to take up just under a fifth of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, while China's share has fallen to a quarter, down from more than 40% in 2020. The gap was narrowed by sharply rising stock prices, higher sales volumes and higher earnings for Indian companies.
🔴 Emerging market investors' choice between the two countries now looks less clear-cut, with a strong Indian market in the balance against relatively inexpensive Chinese stocks that are facing an economic slowdown.
🔴 Many Indian households invest in local stocks to offset so-called low interest rates, which at best match the official inflation rate. Such local investments help offset the outflow of foreign investors from India
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☄️ Tesla Stock Loses More Than 10% After Bad News In Fresh Q2 Report
📊Tesla Q2 Earnings
Revenue: $25.5 bln (+2% YoY, +20% QoQ)
Net income: $1.8 bln (-45% YoY, +18% QoQ)
Automotive sales: $19.9 bln (-7% YoY, +14% QoQ)
🔽Huge drop of Tesla shares came in after release of disappointing Q2 earnings and 2-month postponement of driverless taxi presentations. Investors were pleased to see record revenue, but less than thrilled that it was driven by the business's strengths outside of cars.
⏺Tesla's profit margin is the worst in 5 years due to price cuts and incentives. Tesla's costs are soaring as it spends on artificial intelligence infrastructure needed to turn Tesla electric vehicles into self-driving cars and to develop humanoid robots capable of performing factory work and other functions. For years now, Elon Musk has been promising that Tesla will turn its electric cars into self-driving cars through software updates.
⏺This quarter Tesla produced 46.56 thousand more cars than it could sell. This prompted the company to lower prices. Bloomberg attributed the drop in sales to the fact that US drivers are abandoning more expensive electric vehicles in favor of hybrids.
⏺Production of more affordable electric car models that could boost sales will not begin until the first half of next year. A final decision on building a plant in Mexico has been delayed until the results of the US presidential election in November.
💲TSLA
Current price - $220.77
YTD Perf - down 11.45%
Wall Street Target Price - $205.55
Buy/Hold/Sell - 27/16/12
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🔴 Midday Market Pulse
🇺🇸 Kamala Harris is set to replace current president in attempt to beat Trump. Market is reviewing shifting probability of Donald Trump victory in November after Joe Biden dropped out of presidential race.
🇨🇳 Chinese stocks suffered their biggest decline in six months as a lack of major policy support following the Third Plenum reinforced bearish sentiment.
🇺🇸 Traders await key earnings reports from Tesla and Google after the bell. Market will be seeking updates on Tesla’s forthcoming dedicated robotaxi, humanoid robots and CEO Elon Musk’s shifting priorities; Alphabet is set to report double-digit Q2 growth; AI adoption, ballooning costs in focus
🇩🇪 Shares of SAP are jumping 6% after German software group said its AI intelligence driven overhaul will boost its profit by an extra €200 mln
💙 9 Ethereum ETF to start trading on Tuesday after SEC approval
US Pre-market Earnings:
📈General Motors +5%
📈Sporify +13%
📉UPS -7%
📈Coca-Cola +1%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 flat
📉 NASDAQ -0.15%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.13%
📈 DAX +0.86%
📉SHANGHAI -1.65%
📈NIKKEI flat
🥇 GOLD +0.44%
💛 BTC -2.52%
🌪 VIX flat
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🇨🇳 China Key Rates Cut By Surprising Move From PBOC
In attempt to boost growth in fragile economy, China lowered a key short-term policy rate and its benchmark rates on Monday
💸7-day Reverse Repo Rate: cut to 1.7%
💸1-year Loan Prime Rate: cut to 3.35%
💸5-year Loan Prime Rate: cut to 3.85%
Traditionally, most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences mortgage pricing.
⏺Surpising cuts come after last week release of weak Q2 GDP, СPI and import data. The country is struggling with property crisis, surging debt and weak business sentiment. Possible escalation of trade tensions after possible Trump presidentional win also brings negative expectations
⏺The official Xinhua news agency cited unnamed sources close to the PBOC as saying the "decisive" rate cut showed its determination to bolster the recovery and it was in response to the plenum's aims to achieve this year's growth target.
🔼HANG SENG +1.2%
🔽SHANGHAI -0.6%
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🌐 Weekly Market Review 21.07.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔽S&P 500 -2.0%
🔼DOW JONES +0.7%
🔽NASDAQ -3.7%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔽STOXX 600 -2.7%
🔽DAX -3.1%
🔽FTSE 100 -1.2%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵ASIA
🔽HANG SENG -4.8%
🔼SHANGHAI +0.4%
🔽NIKKEI 225 -2.7%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔽BRENT -2.52%
🔽GOLD -0.74%
🔼BITCOIN +15.2%
🔼VIX +32.7%
⭐️KEY DRIVERS
⏺China GDP below forecast
Fresh Chinese economic statistics turned out to be predominantly negative. In the second quarter, GDP grew by 4.7% (qoq; forecast: 5.1%)
⏺ECB keeps rates unchanged
The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged, staying in a holding pattern for now after ordering an initial rate cut at a meeting last month. The bank’s rate cut in June widened a policy gap with the U.S. Federal Reserve, which hasn’t yet cut its key lending rate below its currently high level.
⏺Market Rotation
For the second week a U.S. small-cap stock benchmark outperformed by a wide margin, posting a 1.7% total return while its large-cap counterpart fell 1.8%. The Russell 2000 Index’s surge of 7.7% over two weeks was the clearest indicator of a rotation toward market segments seen as being the biggest beneficiaries of potential interest-rate cuts.
⏺Chipmakers deeply drops on coming fresh restrictions
On Wednesday semiconductor industry suffered huge falldown. A global factor was a Bloomberg News report that the White House is ready to impose serious trade restrictions if American chipmakers continue to provide China with access to advanced semiconductor technologies.
⏺Crowdstrike global outage
Microsoft said it estimates that worldwide about 8.5 million computers were disabled by the outage caused by an update from the Texas based cyber security company, CrowdStrike on Friday. Stock closed down 11% after losing 22% at Friday premarket.
⏺Earnings season start
Bank shares reacted posiively to quarterly reports. Bank of America shares rose by 5.4% in one trading session, while Morgan Stanley shares added 0.9%. Netflix shares responded with a 1.5% decline to the streaming service operator's forecast for a smaller increase in the number of subscribers in the third quarter compared to the same period last year.
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🔼Three Stocks That Hit All-Time High Despite Market Shaking
Even in the darkest times there are champions in the market who, despite the trend, not just rush to the top, but also update historical records. It is not surprising that this week among these were many representatives of the sectors that benefited from the Fed’s key rate cut – utilities, telecoms and real estate.
Ryan Specialty Holdings
⏺Insurance – Specialty
⏺Market Cap – $8 bln
Ryan Specialty Holdings is a wholesale broker and managing underwriter. It provides specialty distribution, underwriting, product development and risk management services to insurance brokers, agents and carriers. The stock hit a new high on beating earnings expectations and signing agreement to acquire US Assure, a leading program specializing in builder’s risk insurance
💵RYAN💲
Current price - $68.57
YTD Perf - up 59.39%
Wall Street Target Price - 63.50
Buy/Hold/Sell - 4/10/2
Duke Energy
⏺Utilities – Regulated Electric
⏺Market Cap – $88 bln
Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) is one of the powerhouses in the regulated electric space. Together with its subsidiaries, Duke operates two main business units, one covering electric utilities and the other focused on gas. One of the company’s key advantages is geography. Covering the Carolinas, Florida and the Midwest, Duke is positioned where many young people are moving to. The stock hit a new high as defensive stock during market turmoil and because of hot summer boosting demand for gas and electricity
💲DUK💲
Current price - $113.92
YTD Perf - up 17.39%
Wall Street Target Price - 108.73
Buy/Hold/Sell - 9/12/0
T-Mobile US Inc
⏺Telecom Services
⏺Market Cap – $220 bln
The company is a 5G network leader, with a U.S. footprint that covers more ground than its two top rivals combined (98% of Americans are within T-Mobile’s 5G range). Stock hit ATH on positive earning and prospect of rates cut. Rising rates were one of the biggest risks for telecom companies like T-Mobile because they were eating up improving operating cash flow. If that headwind is now easing, it could become a tailwind as refinancing debt at lower rates becomes more cost-effective and cash can be returned to shareholders.
💲TMUS💲
Current price - $188.76
YTD Perf - up 17.78%
Wall Street Target Price - 200.95
Buy/Hold/Sell - 26/3/1
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🔴 Market Pulse / 02.08.2024
↘️ Nasdaq falls into correction as fresh job market data showing signs of trouble. According to July jobs report the US economy added fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% - nearly 3-year high. Those additional signs of a slowdown in the labor market are likely to feed recession fears and rate-cut expectations. Traders are now pricing in three rate cuts this year and bets are on a 50 basis-point reduction in September. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest since December as investors flooded into bonds for safety on the fear the Federal Reserve made a mistake this week by keeping interest rates at current levels.
🔽Chip giant Intel plummeted more than 26% on Friday, finishing one of its worst trading days in 40 years. The massive declines followed a catastrophic Q2 report during which the company announced anticipated third quarter earnings below Wall Street expectations, and that it will be cutting 15% of its workforce and suspending its dividend payments amid a broader restructuring plan.The decline was among the stock's worst performances since at least 1982, according to available data from Bloomberg.
📱 Amazon fell more than 8% Friday after the retail and cloud giant Q3 forecast fell short of expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Even as Amazon brought home earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, beating estimates of $1.04 and nearly doubling profits from the same period last year, investors focused instead on the report's weaknesses. A bright spot of the report came from its cloud business, Amazon Web Services. AWS raked in $26.3 billion in revenue compared to the $26 billion expected and well above the $22.1 billion during the same time last year.
🇯🇵Japanese indexes lost more 5% on economic concerns. Nikkei and Topix driven down by signs of cooling in the U.S. economy and an interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan. The fall, which was the largest since the tsunami that triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, wiped away almost $600 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yen is rising this week to a four-month high against USD, which in turn threaten to erode the earnings of exporters who drove the nation’s equities higher for much of this year.
S&P Movers:
📈Clorox +7%
📈Godaddy +7%
📈MarketAxess +6%
📉Intel -26%
📉Microchip -11%
📉Prudential Fin -10%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -1.8%
📉 NASDAQ -2.4%
📉 STOXX 600 -2.7%
📉 DAX -2.3%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.9%
📉 NIKKEI -5.8%
🥇 GOLD +0.1%
💛 BTC -3.5%
😱 VIX +25.8%
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🔴 Market Pulse / 01.08.2024
↘️ Fresh US macro data brought fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. The ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
💸After these macro releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below psychologically important 4% for the first time since February. As that report came in, traders upped their bets that the Fed will be cutting rates this year. They raised the odds for cuts at each of the three remaining FOMC meetings this year, and pushed up the likelihood of a full percentage point of reductions to about 20%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
🎢 According to one metric, it was the market's most volatile day since November 2022.The S&P 500 was up 0.8% ahead of a key reading on U.S. manufacturing activity. After the report added to the picture of economic weakness that appeared to spook investors, stocks began a relentless decline that saw the large-cap index fall as much as 2% at the day's lows.
🛠 The S&P 500 Utilities Index on Thursday surged to its highest since the spring of 2022 as fixed income yields tumbled and investors sought the safety of less-volatile stocks offering steady dividends and now, in some instances, growth tied to the artificial intelligence power boom. Lower bond yields boost utilities’ bottom lines because of the capital-intensive nature of their investment spending, and constant need to refinance and roll over existing debt.
🏴The Bank of England cut interest rates from a 16-year high - to 5.00% from 5.25%. It was the central bank's first cut since March 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, giving Britain's new government a boost as it seeks to speed up the pace of economic growth. Sterling slipped to its lowest against the U.S. dollar since early July and bond yields also fell slightly after the BoE's announcement with the yield on 10-year gilts touching its lowest since March.
🇯🇵Japanese Topix stock index showed its biggest decline since April 2020. The sharp strengthening of the yen put pressure on shares of Japanese exporting companies, and an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan contributed to the fall in shares of the real estate sector. The largest contribution to the decline in the Topix stock index was made by the most valuable company in Japan - automaker Toyota Motor. Its shares fell 8.5% on a stronger yen and disappointing first-quarter operating profit.
🥇Gold Exceeded $2,500 Per Ounce For The First Time In History. Yesterday's statements by the Federal Reserve about an imminent rate cut triggered another jump in gold prices. An important growth factor is geopolitics. A very problematic presidential election is brewing in the United States, and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is adding fuel to the fire
S&P Movers:
📈CH Robinson +15%
📈FMC Corp +10%
📈Air Products & Chemicals +9%
📉Moderna -21%
📉MGM Resorts -13%
📉Lam Research -10%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -1.4%
📉 NASDAQ -2.3%
📉 STOXX 600 -1.2%
📉 DAX -2.3%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.2%
📉 NIKKEI -2.5%
🥇 GOLD +0.7%
💛 BTC -0.3%
😱 VIX +13.6%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 31.07.2024
↗️ Stock market pops after Fed chairman confirms September rate cut is pretty possible, Dow Jones marks 4th straight day in green
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve officials held short-term interest rates steady at 5.25-5.50%, but indicated that inflation is getting closer to its 2% target. Fed chief Jerome Powell said a reduction in US interest rates is on the table in September if inflation slows further like it has in the past several months.
🇯🇵 Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose as the country’s central bank raised benchmark interest rates to around 0.25%. This marks the first time since December 2008 that Japan’s benchmark interest rate stands higher than 0.1%. Economists polled by Reuters were expecting the bank to hold rates at the 0% to 0.1% range, though other analysts had expected a hike. Bank of Japan also said that it will reduce the monthly outright purchases of Japanese government bonds to about 3 trillion yen ($19.64 billion) per month in the January to March 2026 quarter.
🔼Nvidia stock rallied more than 12% on Wednesday following better-than-expected guidance from peer AMD and a bullish call from analysts at Morgan Stanley after a more than 20% drop in the stock. AMD quarterly results out late Tuesday quelled some concerns that the AI trade may have run its course as investors rotated out of Big Tech over the past month. The company beat expectations on the top and bottom lines and posted a better-than-expected outlook for the third quarter.
🛢 Oil futures tallied their largest one-day gain in months on Wednesday as the assassination of a top Hamas leader in Iran and a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon stoked concerns over further Middle Eastern tensions. A fifth consecutive weekly drop in US crude supplies offered additional support to prices
S&P Movers:
📈Vistra Corp +15%
📈Match Group +13%
📈Nvidia +13%
📉Humana -11%
📉Verisk Analytics -9%
📉Bunge Global -8%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +1.6%
📈 NASDAQ +2.6%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.8%
📈 DAX +0.5%
📈 SHANGHAI +2.1%
📈 NIKKEI +1.5%
🥇 GOLD +1.7%
💛 BTC -3.5%
😱 VIX -7.5%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 30.07.2024
↘️ US stocks mostly fell Tuesday, following declines in megacap tech stocks, as investors braced for quarterly reports from Misrosoft and AMD afterhours. Traders also set their eyes on Washington as the Federal Reserve began its latest policy meeting.
🏆 The US National Debt Exceeded $35 Trillion For The First Time In History. The House of Representatives committee report said that the current US national debt corresponds to $104 thousand per person, $266 thousand per household or $483 thousand per child. The material also indicates that since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the national debt has increased by $7.25 trillion.
⬇️ CrowdStrike shares fell 9.7% after reported news that Delta Air Lines hired attorney David Boies to seek damages from the cybersecurity company and Microsoft after an outage this month led to thousands of flight cancellations. Shares of CrowdStrike are down nearly 40% in July, on pace for their worst monthly performance ever.
⬇️ Merck marked its worst day since 2021 on Tuesday. Sell-off comes after the company delivered a full-year outlook that was softer than Wall Street anticipated. Merck forecast full-year earnings between $7.94 and $8.04 per share, under the consensus estimate of $8.16 from analysts polled by FactSet. That overshadowed stronger-than-expected earnings for Q2.
🛢 Oil futures declined on Tuesday to tally a third straight session decline and settles near its lowest price in 8 weeks as the market failed to shake off concerns about the outlook for demand from China, the world’s largest crude importer. Questionable data coming out of China is the main driver in the overall retraction, according to analysts. Now they see China’s petroleum demands not as robust as they thought just a few weeks ago.
S&P Movers:
📈Howmet Aerospace +13%
📈F5 Inc +13%
📈Stanley Black & Decker +10%
📉Merck -10%
📉Crowdstrike -10%
📉Ecolab -8%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -0.5%
📉 NASDAQ -1.3%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.5%
📈 DAX +0.5%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.4%
📈 NIKKEI +0.1%
🥇 GOLD +1.3%
💛 BTC -1.8%
😱 VIX +6.6%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 29.07.2024
↗️ Stocks are up to a slow start of a crucial week with FED decision and big tech earnings ahead. Gauge of Magnificent 7 megacaps gained 1%, while Russell 2000 lost 1.1%
🇯🇵 Meanwhile Japan’s Nikkei snaps 8-day losing streak as Japan stocks rebound to lead gains in Asia. Traders assess U.S. inflation data, await BOJ meeting on Wednesday
🔼Alibaba shares showed the strongest growth in two months - new commissions will be established for sellers on the Tmall and Taobao platforms. Starting September 1, Alibaba will begin charging a software fee of 0.6% on each confirmed transaction. This measure will increase Alibaba's revenue from sales on Tmall and Taobao and will further support the stock's growth.
🔼McDonald's stock pops even as the fast-food giant Q2 earnings fell short of analyst expectations. CEO said in earning call that $5 value meal the company launched last month has been successful, benefiting sales growth
🔽Oil settles lower after 3 consecutive weeks of losses. On Monday WTI ended at lowest in about 7 weeks despite fears of a wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Next big move for oil is possible after OPEC meeting on Thursday
S&P Movers:
📈ON Semiconductors +12%
📈Revvity +9%
📈Resmed +6%
📉Enphase Energy -5%
📉ServiceNow -3%
📉 Southwest Airlines -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.1%
📈 NASDAQ +0.1%
📉 STOXX 600 -0.2%
📉 DAX -0.5%
📈 SHANGHAI 0%
📈 NIKKEI +2.1%
🥇 GOLD -0.1%
💛 BTC -1.1%
😱 VIX +1.3%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🗓 COMING UP NEXT WEEK
MONDAY 29.07
⏺Earnings reports McDonald’s, Tilray, F5, Philips
TUESDAY 30.07
⏺Eurozone GDP
⏺US Job Openings
⏺Earnings reports from AMD, Microsoft, PayPal, Starbucks, BP, Merck, P&G, Pfizer, First Solar
WEDNESDAY 31.07
⏺China PMIs
⏺FOMC rate
⏺Earnings reports from Meta, Boeing, Arm, Qualcomm, Western Digital, Teva
THURSDAY 01.08
⏺Bank of England rate
⏺US PMIs
⏺Earnings reports from Amazon, Intel, Moderna, Block, Coinbase, Apple
FRIDAY 02.08
⏺US July Jobs report
⏺Earnings reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, Frontier
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔔 The Market Is Waiting For A Next Week Hint From The US Federal Reserve About Lowering Interest Rates
👍 Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that this will happen as early as next week, when the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve takes place. This will begin rate cuts in September and at least once more until early 2025.
🗣In recent weeks, Fed officials have said the labor market has returned to balance and inflation has resumed its decline toward the central bank's 2% target. This is a strong argument for easing monetary policy.
🔎 In addition to rising unemployment and lower inflation, weak corporate earnings reports, which have already hit the American market, as well as US consumer sentiment, which has fallen to an eight-month low due to high prices, speak in favor of lowering rates.
⏺One complication for the September meeting will be its proximity to the presidential election. Initiating rate cuts less than two months before the election is likely to face criticism over political motives
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🟢 Market Pulse / 26.07.2024
↗️ Stocks all around the world partly retreated from last two-days losses, while Dow Jones posted 4th straight weeks of gains after a fresh reading on US inflation renewed investor optimism for Fed rate cut in September
ℹ️ Friday’s power for comeback consisted of oversold sentiment, a stronger-than-expected GDP report Thursday and the view that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates due to economic resilience
🔴 Market Pulse / 25.07.2024
🔽S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped on Thursday, failing to recover from previous session’s losses as tech stocks are still on sale while rotation to value and small-cap stocks continues. The AI stocks that led on the way up are now leading on the way down. Dow Jones and Russell 2000 closed in green area
🇺🇸 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q2. That was not only a significant rebound from the 1.4% pace logged in the first three months of the year, but it surpassed the 1.9% growth forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet.
🇯🇵 Japan’s Nikkei marked its seventh straight day of losses to plunge 3.28%, the most in 9 years, leading declines among Asian indexes as the region saw a broad sell-off after Wall Street tumbled overnight. The yen also marked a fourth-straight day of strengthening against the U.S. dollar, hitting an 11-week low of 152.28 against the greenback.
🇨🇳 China Unexpectedly Cuts 1-year Policy Rate By Most Since 2020. PBOC decreased the rate of the medium-term lending facility by 20 bp to 2.3%. The cut follows China`s central bank trim of 7-day reverse repo by 10 bp on Monday. The PBOC string of rate cuts underscores authorities growing urgency to support growth of lagging economy
🥉 Copper is below $9,000 for the first time in 3 months due to growing pessimism about the global and especially the Chinese economy; amid rising inventories, copper has fallen for 9 trading sessions in a row
🚙 Ford Motor shares tumbled 18.4% for their worst day since 2008 after Q2 earnings came in much lower than analysts expected. Ford posted adjusted earnings per share of 47 cents compared to the consensus forecast of 68 cents, according to LSEG. However, automotive revenue of $44.81 billion came in above the consensus estimate of $44.02 billion.
S&P Movers:
📈ServiceNow +13%
📈Molina Healthcare +12%
📈Universal Health Services +10%
📉Edwards Lifesciences -31%
📉Ford -18%
📉West Pharma -14%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -0.5%
📉 NASDAQ -0.9%
📉 STOXX 600 -0.7%
📉 DAX -0.5%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.5%
📉 NIKKEI -3.0%
🥇 GOLD -2.3%
💛 BTC -1.7%
😱 VIX +2.3%
📌 This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 24.07.2024
🇺🇸 US market tumbled for the worst day since 2022 as Tesla, Alphabet dipped on earnings. Although Alphabet reported a top and bottom line beat, Youtube advertising revenue fell below estimates. Meanwhile Tesla suffered huge profit drop and delayed robotaxi presentation
Wednesday selloff was caused by a perfect storm of an overbought market, high bar for earnings and a seasonally weak period for equities - via Baird
📊 S&P 500 Movers
🔽 UPS (UPS) -12.1%
The package delivery company hit a new 52-week low after posting a miss on both top and bottom lines in the second quarter. UPS reported $1.79 in earnings per share on $21.80 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG had estimated $1.99 in earnings per share and revenue of $22.18 billion.
🔽 NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) -7.6%
Shares of NXP Semiconductors suffered its worst decline in more than four years. It came on the heels of a second-quarter earnings miss. NXP Semiconductors posted adjusted earnings of $3.20 per share, falling short of a FactSet estimate of $3.21 per share. Revenue was in line with the $3.13 billion expected. Company also shared weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter and a decline in second-quarter earnings and revenue from the year-ago period.
🔼 Pentair PLC (PNR) +9.0%
Pentair shares soared following the water treatment company’s second-quarter earnings beat, putting the stock on pace for a fresh record close. Shares are up nearly 20% this year.
🔼 MSCI Inc (MSCI) +7.9%
The stock gained after the company reported Q2 earnings above Wall Street’s estimates. MSCI posted earnings of $3.64 per share, excluding items, on revenue of $707.9 million. This is above the $3.55 in earnings per share on $696.4 million in revenue that analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting.
📌 This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🇺🇸 US Earnings Season Continues
According to FactSet, of the S&P500 companies reporting so far:
⏺ 62% beat 2Q 2024 earnings forecast - still below the 5-year average of 68% and below the 10-year average of 64%
⏺ 80% beat EPS expectations, still above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%
🔔 Key earnings this week:
Monday:
SAP, Verizon
Tuesday:
Alphabet, Tesla, Visa, Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin
Wednesday:
IBM, AT&T, Ford
Thursday:
AbbVie, AstraZeneca
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🗓 Coming Up Next Week
MONDAY 22.07
⏺PBoC Loan Rate
⏺The Farnborough International Airshow
⏺Earnings reports Verizon, NXP Semiconductors, etc
TUESDAY 23.07
⏺US Existing Home Sales
⏺Earnings reports from Alphabet, Tesla, Visa, General Motors, etc
WEDNESDAY 24.07
⏺Eurozone PMIs
⏺Earnings reports from IBM, AT&T, Ford, european banks, etc
⏺US New Home Sales
THURSDAY 25.07
⏺US GDP Q2
⏺Earnings reports from Abbvie, AstraZeneca, etc
⏺Bitcoin 2024 Conference
FRIDAY 26.07
⏺US PCE Data
⏺Paris Olympics
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3 stocks to follow trending Russell 2000 growth
GEO Group
💲GEO
Current price - $16.78
YTD Perf - up 83.93%
Wall Street Target Price - $19.15
Buy/Hold/Sell - 4/0/0
ℹ️ Florida-based Geo Group Inc (GEO) is a government service provider that specializes in design and support services for secure facilities and processing centers worldwide - namely, private prisons. It offers a full spectrum of innovative solutions to government agency partners, which gives GEO a unique competitive advantage in capturing future quality growth opportunities.
PAYSIGN
💲PAYS
Current price - $5.18
YTD Perf - up 50.88%
Wall Street Target Price - $6.13
Buy/Hold/Sell - 4/0/0
ℹ️ Nevada-headquartered Paysign Inc (PAYS) provides prepaid card programs, comprehensive patient affordability offerings, digital banking services, and integrated payment processing services for businesses, consumers, and government institutions. Its capabilities include transaction processing, cardholder enrollment, account funding, account management, reporting, and customer service.
ATKORE INC
💲ATKR
Current price - $141.83
YTD Perf - down 11.36%
Wall Street Target Price - $180.5
Buy/Hold/Sell - 5/1/0
ℹ️ Atkore Inc. (ATKR) is engaged in the manufacturing and sale of electrical, mechanical, safety, and infrastructure products and solutions globally. The product offerings include conduits, cables, installation accessories, metal framing, mechanical pipe, perimeter security, and cable management.
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