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📈 All the latest updates on the Stock Market: signals, news, and everything that might move the narrative — all in one place. 😉 We keep an eye on the price; you can just watch us do it. Buy Ads: @JamesCookTg
🇳🇴Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund Made a $138 Billion Profit ln The First Half Of The Year
💵Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, reported a first-half profit of $138 billion. A year earlier, the fund's profit was $143 billion.
🔼The fund's main source of profit remains shares of technology companies. The return on shares previously acquired by the fund was 27.9%, the total return on investment for the first half of 2024 was 8.6%. As noted in the report, the development of the technology sector is supported by strong demand for new solutions in the field of artificial intelligence from major Internet and software companies, as well as semiconductor suppliers.
✂️However, the sovereign wealth fund reduced its stakes in Meta from 1.22% to 1.18% and in Dutch semiconductor maker ASML from 2.61% to 2.54%. Both companies are among the top 10 assets of the Norwegian Sovereign Fund.
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🇨🇳The People's Bank of China Announced Additional Measures To Stimulate GDP Growth
That means intensifying efforts to effectively implement the monetary and financial policies that PBOC has been following since this year.
📊 China's GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2024 slowed down and was the lowest since January-March 2023. Economic growth in April–June 2024 was 4.7% in annual terms, compared to 5.3% in January–March.
🔴 China's economy is struggling to recover from its worst period in five quarters. The latest data from China's $17 trillion economy shows an overall loss of dynamism and signs of deterioration. According to data published on June 15, investment in fixed assets in the first seven months of 2024 grew by 3.6% year-on-year - slower than expected.
🏠The downturn in China's housing market also shows no signs of turning around, with 48 million unfinished homes threatening to prolong the crisis. The head of PBOC admitted that the down payment ratio on mortgages has fallen to a record low of 15% and interest rates are also very low.
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⚡️Cisco Cuts Thousands Of Jobs As It Shifts Focus To AI And Cybersecurity
📶 The networking equipment maker said in June this year it would invest $1 billion in tech startups to develop robust AI products. The company also announced a partnership with Nvidia to develop infrastructure for AI systems.
📊Cisco Systems Inc. said Wednesday it earned $2.16 billion, or 54 cents per share, in its fiscal fourth quarter that ended July 27, down 45% from $3.96 billion, or 97 cents per share, in the same period. period a year earlier. Revenue fell 10% from $15.2 billion to $13.64 billion.
👨💻 Cisco's layoffs come just two weeks after chipmaker Intel announced it would cut about 15,000 jobs as it tries to rebuild its business to compete with more successful Nvidia and AMD. Intel's quarterly earnings report disappointed investors and its shares fell sharply after the announcement. By contrast, Cisco shares were up about 6% in after-hours trading Wednesday.
👋 In February 2024, Cisco cut about 4 thousand jobs due to the worsening situation in the technology sector.
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🔼Nvidia Market Cap Grew By $424 bln In Four Days After Huge Decline
🕯 Nvidia market value fell by $900 billion after a massive stock sell-off on August 5. The historic decline erased the company's record capitalization, but now there are signs that the worst is over. Now the rebound in Nvidia stock has lifted the market, too: It accounted for about 22% of the S&P 500's four-day gain, more than double the contribution of any other stock.
📊However, Nvidia shares are still down 14% from their record price reached on June 18th. On that day, the company took first place in terms of capitalization in the world, overtaking Microsoft. The rally in Nvidia stock caught options sellers, who had been betting on big losses for the company, by surprise. The cost of protecting against a 10% decline over 60 days was near the highest since May 2023, compared with contracts that provide for gains on a 10% rise.
🔔 A 17% rise in Nvidia shares in just a few days won't allay the investor concerns that led to the sell-off. They are still wary of the U.S. economy and the plans of technology companies that want to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence over several years without expecting a profit. However, now, amid the recession, a huge number of investors are interested in the company, and hedge funds may open a position in the shares ahead of Nvidia quarterly report, which will be published at the end of August. In reports already published Nvidia biggest customers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta have said they plan to invest billions of dollars in AI infrastructure
💲NVDA💲
Current price - $115.97
YTD Perf - up 134.18%
Wall Street Target Price - 139.79
Buy/Hold/Sell - 56/5/0
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🖥 Long Big Tech Is Still Top Trade Despite Volatility - BofA Survey
⏺ According to fresh Bank of America poll, in the first week of August international managers left stocks for bonds and cash, though long bets on the Magnificent Seven tech stocks remained the most crowded trade
⏺The survey, which canvassed 189 participants with $508 billion in assets, showed most still expect a soft landing for the global economy, but expect a significant slowdown on the yearly horizon. US recession replaced geopolitical conflict as the biggest tail risk
⏺Allocation to equities fell to a net 11% overweight — the biggest month-over-month decline since September 2022
⏺The biggest regional equity allocation was to US equities, while exposure to Japanese stocks saw the largest one-month drop since April 2016
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🇺🇸US Earnings Season Continues
According to FactSet, 91% of the S&P500 companies reported so far:
⏺ 78% beat EPS expectations, still above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%
⏺ Collectively companies are reporting earnings this season averaging 4.5% above forecasts, below the 5-year average of 8.6% and below the 10-year average of 6.8%.
🔔 Key earnings this week:
Monday:
Barrick Gold
Tuesday:
Home Depot, Paysafe
Wednesday:
UBS, Cardinal Health, Cisco
Thursday:
Alibaba, Applied Materials, Walmart, JD, John Deere
Friday:
Flowers Floods
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🌐 Weekly Market Review 11.08.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔽S&P 500 -0.1%
🔽DOW JONES -0.6%
🔽NASDAQ -0.2%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔼STOXX 600 +0.3%
🔼DAX +0.3%
🔽FTSE 100 -0.1%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵 ASIA
🔼HANG SENG +0.9%
🔽SHANGHAI -1.5%
🔽NIKKEI 225 -2.5%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔼BRENT +4.7%
🔼GOLD 0%
🔼BITCOIN -3.0%
🔼VIX -13%
⭐️ KEY DRIVERS
⏺World indexes experienced the most volatile week of 2024 and ended nearly flat. On Monday world indexes suffered horrible losses on fears about a recession in the United States after the employment report for July did not live up to expectations. In addition, investors were concerned that the US Federal Reserve is in no hurry to lower interest rates. The Stoxx Europe 600 index experienced its biggest drop since March 2022 on August 5, down 3.2%. In Asia, the fall in Japanese stock indices was the largest since Black Monday in 1987. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reached 65.07 points – the most since COVID. However, the major averages mounted a comeback, with Thursday's encouraging weekly jobless claims number helping alleviate investors' concerns about the U.S. economy.
⏺On Thursday S&P 500 hit its best day since 2022 adding 2.3% on positive labor market data. The latest weekly jobless claims came in below forecasts, helping to allay some recent concerns on the strength of the labor market. First-time filings for jobless benefits came in at 233,000 last week, down 17,000 from the previous week and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The report comes with Wall Street on edge amid signs that job growth is slowing and even signaling a potential recession on the horizon. The 10-year Treasury yield traded above 4% following the jobless claims data, a level seen before the disappointing July jobs report Friday sent markets reeling
⏺US crude oil gained more than 4% for the week as recession fears have eased and the risk of a wider war in the Middle East that could disrupt production and transportation looms over the market. The West Texas Intermediate contract for September rose 0.85% for the session to settle at $76.84 per barrel. The Brent October contract gained 0.63% to settle at $79.66 per barrel.
⏺Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida sent a strong dovish signal in the wake of historic financial market volatility in Japan by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when the markets are unstable. The yen weakened by more than 2% against the dollar, bond futures spiked higher and stocks rebounded immediately after his comments, which were the first public remarks by a BOJ board member since the bank raised rates on July 31. USD/JPY ended week flat.
⏺JPMorgan now sees US recession chance at 35% by end of this year. Its up from 25% as of the start of last month. Analytics kept the odds of a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45%. JPMorgan now sees just a 30% chance of the Federal Reserve and its peers keeping interest rates high for long, compared with a 50-50 assessment as recently as two months back. JPMorgan sees the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point in September and November as US inflation pressures coming down
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🙂 Retail Investors Still Buyers Despite Harsh Market Rollercoaster
⏺Retail investors were buyers during latest market volatility, according to various research reports, although they also showed signs of caution.
⏺Vanda Research, a New York-based market research and analysis firm, found that individual investors caught up in the market storm remained net buyers of shares of companies like Nvidia, Intel and AMD.
⏺Robinhood Markets received $1 billion of new cash from retail investor clients in the first week of August. However, the firm's clients were unable to execute orders on Robinhood during overnight sessions, as Blue Ocean ATS, which executes those trades, couldn't handle the "extreme demand" from clients.
⏺A separate report published by analysts at JP Morgan said that retail investors were "aggressive net sellers" on Monday, with most of the selling pressure hitting the market in the first hour of trading.
⏺Both Vanda and JPMorgan said retail investors were resolute buyers during the market's recovery on Tuesday and Wednesday. But Vanda noted on Thursday that retail investors' interest in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF soared during the recovery, making the ETF the second-most-actively purchased security after Nvidia shares by Thursday morning.
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❗️Analysts See Risk Of A New Stock Market Crash Due To Chinese Yuan
🇨🇳Chinese yuan may become the next currency after the Japanese yen, the strengthening of which will lead to the collapse of world markets. Such a risk may materialize if traders begin to massively curtail transactions using the carry trade strategy with the Chinese currency.
💸This strategy was actively used in Japan, where there was an ultra-loose monetary policy for a long time. But in anticipation of a rate hike, traders were forced to curtail such transactions with the Japanese yen in July. The return of borrowed money to Japan has put pressure on markets around the world.
🔴 Citibank analysts also see potential risks of the yuan strengthening. Experts pointed out that the yuan, even more than the Japanese yen, has become used in carry trade strategies: chinese exporters hold large sums in dollars and companies are reluctant to convert those funds due to higher rates in the US. However, exporters may soon do so as the Fed prepares to cut rates — which could cause big moves in markets, the expert said.
👀 There is also the opposite opinion. Thus, Mizuho Bank sees yen as a very liquid global currency, while exchange rate of the yuan still depends on the Chinese authorities. Japan and China also have different economic problems. While the yen's weakness was due to low interest rates in Japan, the yuan's weakness was mainly due to structural economic factors and serious geopolitical threats. China's economy has not fully recovered since the country emerged from nearly three years of COVID-19 restrictions, so it is more likely that the People's Bank of China will still need to cut rates.
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⚠️ JPMorgan Now Sees US Recession Chance At 35% By End Of This Year
⏺Its up from 25% as of the start of last month. Analytics kept the odds of a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45%.
⏺JPMorgan now sees just a 30% chance of the Federal Reserve and its peers keeping interest rates high for long, compared with a 50-50 assessment as recently as two months back.
⏺JPMorgan sees the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point in September and November as US inflation pressures coming down
⏺Goldman Sachs Group Inc.was the latest before JPMorgan to raise its recession forecast. The bank’s new calculation now sees a 25% probability of a recession in a year
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⚡️Airbnb Stock Loses 15% After Delivering Weak Booking Outlook
📱 In its Q2 report, the accommodation booking service gave a disappointing forecast about a slowdown in demand from tourists. Airbnb's quarterly revenue increased, while profit decreased compared to last year and was below analysts' expectations
⚠️The service warned of a slowdown in demand for bookings of “nights and experiences.” According to the report, bookings rose 8.7% in the second quarter to 125.1 million, well below analysts' estimates, which had expected growth of 9.8%.
📊 Airbnb's revenue in the second quarter increased by 11% year-on-year, to $2.75 billion. Net income decreased by 15%, to $555 million, or to $0.86 per share. Airbnb said it expects a "sequential slowdown" in bookings in the next quarter. In this case, the upcoming results will disappoint analysts, who had expected growth of 11% taking into account the summer tourist season. Given the forecast, Airbnb's growth rate could be the slowest since 2020.
💬RBC Capital Markets analysts called Airbnb's report disappointing. In their opinion, the service’s forecast will strengthen the market’s opinion of weak consumption. Morningstar analysts noted that Airbnb is not immune to the slowdown in travel demand, but remains a well-positioned brand for the long term.
💲ABNB💲
Current price - $110.86
YTD Perf - down 18.57%
Wall Street Target Price - 151.69
Buy/Hold/Sell - 12/25/7
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🇺🇸US Earnings Season Continues
According to FactSet, 75% of the S&P500 companies reported so far:
⏺ 78% beat EPS expectations, still above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%
⏺ Collectively companies are reporting earnings this season averaging 4.5% above forecasts, below the 5-year average of 8.6% and below the 10-year average of 6.8%.
🔔 Key earnings this week:
Tuesday:
Uber, Rivian, Caterpillar, Airbnb, Amgen
Wednesday:
CVS Health, Shopify, Robinhood, Sony
Thursday:
DataDog, Plug, Novavax, TradeDesk
Friday:
AMC, Nikola, Canopy Growth
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⚠️ Wall Street's 'Fear Index' Hits Highest Since 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic
⏺The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rise on Monday reached 178.2% at 65.07 points, in March 2020 the index rose to 85.47 points. The VIX is an estimate of the expected 30-day volatility of the US market.
🔽On August 5, American stock indices fell amid sales on global stock markets and lost 3-5%. The negative pressure on the American market on Monday was strengthened by the news that Warren Buffett's investment company Berkshire Hathaway reported that it had reduced its stake in Apple by almost half.
⚡️The main reason for the collapse in global stock markets was fears about a recession in the United States after the employment report for July did not live up to expectations. In addition, investors are concerned that the US Federal Reserve is in no hurry to lower interest rates. At the end of July, the Fed kept the base rate in the range of 5.25–5.5% for the eighth time in a row.
📉 In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index experienced its biggest drop since March 2022 on August 5, down 3.2%. In Asia, the fall in Japanese stock indices was the largest since Black Monday in 1987. The Nikkei 225 and Topix indices lost more than 12%. Their fall began last week, after the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 0.25% from the previous 0-0.1%. This led to the strengthening of the yen against the dollar: the Japanese currency had previously been popular among traders due to its low volatility.
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🌐 Weekly Market Review 04.08.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔽S&P 500 -2.1%
🔽DOW JONES -2.1%
🔽NASDAQ -3.3%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔽STOXX 600 -2.9%
🔽DAX -4.1%
🔽FTSE 100 -1.3%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵 ASIA
🔽HANG SENG -0.4%
🔼SHANGHAI +0.5%
🔽NIKKEI 225 -4.7%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔽BRENT -4.4%
🔼GOLD +3.4%
🔽BITCOIN -9.5%
🔼VIX +43%
⭐️ KEY DRIVERS
⏺US stocks crashed at the end of the week as fresh macro data showing signs of possible recession. On Thursday The ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. According to July jobs report, that came on Friday, the US economy added fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% - nearly 3-year high. Those additional signs of a slowdown in the labor market are likely to feed recession fears and rate-cut expectations. Nasdaq entered correction zone after the Friday close, while 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest since December as investors flooded into bonds for safety on the fear the Federal Reserve made a mistake this week by keeping interest rates at current levels.
⏺Federal Reserve met expectations with their rate decision on Wednesday. Officials held short-term interest rates steady at 5.25-5.50%, but indicated that inflation is getting closer to its 2% target. Fed chief Jerome Powell said a reduction in US interest rates is on the table in September if inflation slows further like it has in the past several months. After Friday crash economists bet on three cut till the end of 2024, with two cuts likely 50 bp.
⏺Big tech didn’t bring too much positive with their fresh earnings. Microsoft beat on the top and bottom lines, but missing on cloud revenue expectations Amazon fell more than 8% Friday after the retail and cloud giant Q3 forecast fell short of expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Apple reported beat on a revenue, but sales of the iPhone fell from a year earlier, down 0.9% to $39.3 billion. Meta shares were the only one to bring positive reporting beat of Wall Street expectations and offering a rosy revenue forecast.
⏺Japanese indexes lost more 5% on economic concerns and BoJ rate hike. Nikkei and Topix driven down by signs of cooling in the U.S. economy and an interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan. The fall on Friday, which was the largest since the tsunami that triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, wiped away almost $600 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yen is rising this week to a four-month high against USD, which in turn threaten to erode the earnings of exporters who drove the nation’s equities higher for much of this year.
⏺The US national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time in history. The House of Representatives committee report said that the current US national debt corresponds to $104 thousand per person, $266 thousand per household or $483 thousand per child. The material also indicates that since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the national debt has increased by $7.25 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2034, the United States' national debt will increase to $50.7 trillion, or 122% of the country's GDP. According to the IMF, if current approaches to fiscal policy are maintained, the US public debt will double by 2053.
⏺Gold exceeded $2,500 per ounce for the first time in history. Wednesday statements by the Federal Reserve about an imminent rate cut triggered another jump in gold prices. An important growth factor is geopolitics. A very problematic presidential election is brewing in the United States, and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is adding fuel to the fire
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⚠️ Wall Street Experts Expect Sharper Fed Rate Cuts Amid Recession Signals
Wall Street banks are calling on the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates based on recent data that the labor market is cooling
🔴 Economists at Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. revised its forecasts for US monetary policy on Friday after data showed the US unemployment rate rose again in July. Everyone is calling for earlier or larger interest rate cuts.
©️ Citigroup:
Rate cuts by 50 bp in September and November and by 25 bp in December, although previously they predicted a rate cut of 25 bp at all three meetings. The Fed will then cut rates by 25 bp at each meeting until mid-2025, bringing its policy range to 3-3.25%.
50 bp rate cuts in September and November, then 25 bp cuts at each subsequent meeting; in addition, there are compelling reasons to act before the next meeting on September 18.
🟢 Market Pulse / 16.08.2024
↗️ US Stocks secure best week of the year, reversing early August sell-off on macro positive week.
✂️Following the positive data, investors have also now pared back some of their more dramatic bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Data from the CME Group now shows investors placing 66% odds on the Fed cutting rates by 0.25% next month; odds of a 0.50% rate cut now stand at 33%. During the market's most turbulent moments last week, there was almost a near-certainty that a 0.50% cut would be warranted. The next key update from investors on the rates front will come next Friday when Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to speak before the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.
🔼Fubo stock surged as much as 22% on Friday after a judge issued an injunction blocking the launch of Venu, the sports streaming venture between Disney, Warner Bros., and Fox that was set to debut later this month. Fubo had sued to block the platform back in February, arguing the venture would lead to "the extreme suppression of competition in the US sports-focused streaming market. Friday's ruling potentially keeps Venu from launching this year, particularly notable given the accelerated launch of the service would've made it available in time for football season, with ESPN and Fox both having NFL rights and the rights to the SEC and Big Ten, the two biggest college football conferences, respectively.
🔼H&R Block shares headed for their best day in more than two years. The tax services provider jumped more than 12% after fiscal fourth-quarter results topped Street estimates, it raised its dividend and authorized a $1.5 billion buyback. H&R Block also issued a fiscal 2025 forecast reflecting another year of revenue growth.
🇯🇵Japan stocks led gains in Asia on Friday to notch their best week in four years, after Wall Street rallied overnight as fresh economic data eased recessionary fears. The Nikkei 225 jumped 3.64% to cross 38,000 for the first time since Aug. 1. On a weekly basis, the index was up 8.67%, its highest gain since April 2020, according to FactSet data. Japan’s broader Topix, gained 2.99% to close at 2,678.6, also clocking its best week since 2020 — up 7.86%.
🇨🇳 The People's Bank of China announced additional measures to stimulate GDP growth. That means intensifying efforts to effectively implement the monetary and financial policies that PBOC has been following since this year. China's economy is struggling to recover from its worst period in five quarters. The latest data from China's $17 trillion economy shows an overall loss of dynamism and signs of deterioration.
S&P Movers:
📈Dexcom +3%
📈Ulta Beauty +3%
📈Tapestry +3%
📉Amcor -4%
📉Chipotle Mexican Grill -3%
📉Palo Alto -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.2%
📈 NASDAQ +0.2%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.3%
📈 DAX +0.8%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.1%
📈 NIKKEI +3.6%
🥇 GOLD +2.2%
💛 BTC +1.1%
😱 VIX -2.8%
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🟢 Market Pulse / 15.08.2024
↗️ US stocks closed sharply higher on Thursday, with the Dow posting its best day in a week after strong retail-sales data put fears of a looming recession at ease.
📊 Retail sales increased 1% in July, far surpassing an estimate from Dow Jones that forecast a 0.3% uptick. Also separately, weekly jobless claims fell for the week. The data served as a boon to investors and a broader market trying to mount a comeback from an August rout tied to concerns about a slowing economy that arose following July’s disappointing jobs report on Aug. 2. Dow logs best day in a week, S&P 500 turns positive for August
💵 US government debt sold off on Thursday, sending most yields higher, after a stronger than expected retail-sales report for July soothed concerns about the risk of an impending recession. The yield on the 2-year Treasury jumped 15 basis points to 4.099%, from around 3.949% on Wednesday. It was the largest one-day gain since April 10 and highest closing level since Aug. 1
🛒Walmart’s second-quarter earnings report, which led to a 6.4% jump in its stock during normal trading hours, reveals strong financial results. The company reported revenue of $169.3 billion. Additionally, Walmart saw an 8.5% rise in operating income. This performance underscores Walmart’s continued strength in both physical stores and eCommerce.
📶 Cisco reported its third straight quarter of declining revenue, wrapping up its first full fiscal year drop since 2020. The company said it’s cutting 7% of its global workforce. Earnings and revenue topped analysts’ estimates.
S&P Movers:
📈Ulta Beauty +11%
📈Albemarle +9%
📈Super Micro Comp +9%
📉Fair Isaac -4%
📉MarketAxess -3%
📉AT&T -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +1.6%
📈 NASDAQ +2.3%
📈 STOXX 600 +1.2%
📈 DAX +1.7%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.9%
📈 NIKKEI +0.8%
🥇 GOLD +0.5%
💛 BTC -2.5%
😱 VIX -5.8%
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🟢 Market Pulse / 14.08.2024
↗️ US stocks went for back to back gains as easing inflation bolsters rate cut hopes. Consumer prices increased 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3% in June and the lowest reading since March 2021. So-called core inflation, which strips out food and energy from the headline number, advanced 0.2% on the month, also in line with expectations. The report comes a day after lighter-than-expected wholesale inflation figures gave stocks a boost. Such data opens the door wider for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month.
😬The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) known as Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ has dropped back below 18, after spiking above 65 during last week’s sell-off. The seven trading sessions it took the VIX to return to its long-term median of 17.6 is the index’s quickest ever drop from 35, a level associated with a high degree of fear. Below 20 is a normal reading suggesting a risk-on bias in markets. On the other hand, a reading above 20 is a bearish indicator, reflecting heightened levels of fear and uncertainty.
🍬 Family-owned candy giant Mars is buying Cheez-It maker Kellanova in a nearly $36 billion deal, bringing together brands from M&M's and Snickers to Pringles and Pop-Tarts in the year's biggest deal to date. Mars said on Wednesday it will pay $83.50 per share for Kellanova representing about a 33% premium to its closing price on Aug. 2. Before Reuters first reported that Mars was exploring a deal for the maker of frozen breakfast foods, such as Morningstar Farms and Eggo
👙Victoria’s Secret shares surged more than 16% after the retailer announced the appointment of former Savage X Fenty CEO Hillary Super as the company’s CEO, effective Sept. 9. The company also provided preliminary second-quarter results, with adjusted operating income and adjusted diluted earnings per share coming in at a range above prior guidance.
S&P Movers:
📈Kellanova +8%
📈Progressive Corp +5%
📈Allstate Corp +5%
📉Albemarle Corp -6%
📉Etsy -5%
📉Tesla -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.6%
📈 NASDAQ +0.1%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.5%
📈 DAX +0.4%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.6%
📈 NIKKEI +0.6%
🥇 GOLD -0.9%
💛 BTC -2.5%
😱 VIX -10.7%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 13.08.2024
↗️ U.S. indexes comfortly rose on Tuesday and hit a near two-week high after softer producer prices data reinforced bets of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Investors now await all-important consumer-price figures for July on Wednesday and retail sales data on Thursday to firm bets on an aggressive rate cut by the U.S. central bank.
📊 In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 2.2% after climbing 2.7% in June. It increased less than expected in July as the cost of services fell by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years amid signs of diminishing pricing power for businesses, evidence of waning inflation pressures that reinforced hopes of an interest rate cut next month. This report also showed favorable readings for most of the components that go into the calculation of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price indexes, the inflation measures tracked by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy. Moderating inflation should allow the U.S. central bank to focus more on the labor market.
🇯🇵Japan’s major indexes rose sharply on Tuesday, as trading in the country’s stocks resumed after a holiday, amid a broader rise in Asia-Pacific markets. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 3.45%, breaching the 36,000 level for the first time since Aug. 2. The momentum was largely driven by the country’s technology and financial sectors, with Rakuten Group and Trend Micro leaping 9.22% and 6.37%, respectively. The country’s parliament plans to hold a special session next week to discuss the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates last month, Reuters reported, citing government sources.
☕️Starbucks stock shot up 25% after the coffee chain ousted CEO Laxman Narasimhan effective immediately and replaced him with Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol, who will step in Sept 9. Three Wall Street firms already upgraded Starbucks stock after the news. Shares of Chipotle shed 8% on Niccol’s departure.
🛠 Shares of Home Depot Inc. reversed into the green on Tuesday, after the home improvement retail giant reported fiscal second-quarter comparable sales that were worse than forecasts, but implied that lower interest rates could spark interest in large projects. The company also provided a downbeat full-year outlook for profit and lowered its outlook for comparable sales growth, but raised its growth guidance for total sales.
S&P Movers:
📈Starbucks +25%
📈Estee Lauder +7%
📈Nvidia +7%
📉Chipotle Mexican Grill -7%
📉Baxter International -7%
📉EQT -4%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +1.7%
📈 NASDAQ +2.4%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.5%
📈 DAX +0.5%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.3%
📈 NIKKEI +3.5%
🥇 GOLD +0.1%
💛 BTC +3.7%
😱 VIX -11.7%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 12.08.2024
↗️ US stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors look ahead to a week full of key economic data, highlighted by CPI on Wednesday. Though the major indexes practically ended last week where they had started, it didn't come without volatility throughout the week. Strategists say that is likely to continue — and this week comes with plenty of opportunities. After Wednesday CPI here come two key signals on the state of the US consumer on Thursday: a reading on July's retail sales and Walmart earnings.
💰KeyCorp shares surged Monday morning after the bank announced a $2.8 billion investment from the Bank of Nova Scotia. Scotiabank will acquire about 163 million shares by the first quarter of 2025 after the companies receive regulatory approval. Cleveland-based KeyCorp called the investment a "unique opportunity to raise capital on attractive terms."
🛢Oil prices settled up more than 3% on Monday as Israel braces for a potential Iranian attack following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The looming threat of a broader conflict in the Middle East, a region that holds over half of the world’s oil reserves, has rattled markets, sending crude prices higher. Oil markets are bracing for potential disruptions to supply chains if hostilities escalate.
🛢 OPEC published fresh monthly report. For the first time this year, OPEC lowered forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025. OPEC+ countries increased oil production in July and exceeded the plan taken into account of all voluntary reductions
S&P Movers:
📈Keycorp +9%
📈Super Micro Computer +6%
📈Nvidia +4%
📉Albemarle -7%
📉Solventum -5%
📉Walgreens Boots Alliance -5%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.0%
📈 NASDAQ +0.2%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.0%
📈 DAX +0.0%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.1%
📈 NIKKEI +0.6%
🥇 GOLD +1.6%
💛 BTC -0.5%
😱 VIX +1.2%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 12.08
⏺Japan - markets closed
⏺OPEC weekly report
⏺Earnings reports Barrick Gold
Tuesday 13.08
⏺US, Japan PPI
⏺Earnings reports from Paysafe, Home Depot
Wednesday 14.08
⏺US, UK CPI
⏺Eurozone GDP
⏺Earnings reports from Cisco, Cardinal Health, UBS
Thursday 15.08
⏺Japan, UK GDP
⏺US Initial Jobless Claims
⏺US Retail Sales
⏺US, China Industrial Production
⏺Earnings reports from Alibaba, Applied Materials, Walmart, Coherent, JD
Friday 16.08
⏺US Housing Starts
⏺Earnings reports from Flowers Foods
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
☕️ Coffee Futures Are Pretty Close To Make Fresh Year High
🔼Futures for September delivery are surging in New York. That’s the last time traders wanting to bring beans into the European Union can buy from New York and London exchanges without concern about the deforestation regulation. Taking delivery of the December contract would be risky because traders may not have enough time to clear it through customs before the law takes effect at year’s end.
💬The EU aims to slash the 10% of global deforestation — and associated loss of biodiversity — linked to its consumption of commodities such as coffee, cocoa, timber and beef. The pending law requires every bean, log and cow entering the region to be traced to their origins, or the bloc will levy hefty penalties.
📊Prices of both the high-end arabica beans and the cheaper robusta variety have already spiked this year due to major supply disruptions from Vietnam to Brazil.
🌐 About 98% of arabica coffee stockpiles are held in ports in Europe, mainly Antwerp. Out of about 800,000 bags, only 15% are considered EUDR-compliant, leaving the rest classified as transition stock subject to penalties after Dec. 30.
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 09.08.2024
↗️ US stocks inched upward on Friday as the stock market built on its incredible comeback from Monday's violent rout. The broad market index was close to reversing its weekly fall.
ℹ️This week marked the most volatile week of 2024 for the market. The Dow on Monday tumbled 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 lost 3% for its worst day since 2022. Disappointing U.S. payrolls data from the prior week and concerns the Federal Reserve was too late with rate cuts were the main culprits for the selling, along with the unwinding of a popular currency trade by hedge funds. However, the major averages mounted a comeback, with Thursday's encouraging weekly jobless claims number helping alleviate investors' concerns about the U.S. economy.
🛢 U.S. crude oil gained more than 4% for the week as recession fears have eased and the risk of a wider war in the Middle East that could disrupt production and transportation looms over the market. The West Texas Intermediate contract for September rose 0.85% for the session to settle at $76.84 per barrel. The Brent October contract gained 0.63% to settle at $79.66 per barrel.
🔼Akamai Technologies reached headed for its best day in more than half a decade after the cloud company's better-than-expected earnings report. Friday's advance comes after the Massachusetts-based company said it earned $1.58 per share, excluding items, on $980 million in revenue for the second quarter. Analysts polled by LSEG expected just $1.53 in earnings per share on $977 million in revenue.
🔽E.l.f. Beauty's stock declined more than 15%, putting the cosmetics company on pace for its worst day since March 2020. The drop came even after the company posted stronger-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results. E.l.f. Beauty posted adjusted earnings of $1.10 per share on $324 million in revenue, topping the 84 cents per share and revenue of $305 million expected by LSEG analysts. The company lifted its guidance, saying it expects sales to range between $1.28 billion and $1.3 billion for fiscal 2025. Analysts polled by LSEG had braced for sales guidance of $1.3 billion.
S&P Movers:
📈Akamai Tech +11%
📈Expedia Group +10%
📈Eli Lilly +6%
📉Insulet -9%
📉Intel -4%
📉Las Vegas Sands -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.5%
📈 NASDAQ +0.5%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.6%
📈 DAX +0.2%
📉SHANGHAI -0.3%
📈NIKKEI +0.6%
🥇 GOLD +0.2%
💛 BTC -0.5%
😱 VIX -14.4%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 08.08.2024
↗️ US stocks go up as labor-market data calm recession fears. The S&P 500 hit its best day since 2022 adding 2.3%. The blue-chip Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq were also on track for their best day in over a year. The 10-year Treasury yield traded above 4% following the jobless claims data, a level seen before the disappointing July jobs report Friday sent markets reeling. Also aiding markets Thursday was a weaker Japanese yen versus the U.S. dollar.
📊The latest weekly jobless claims came in below forecasts, helping to allay some recent concerns on the strength of the labor market. First-time filings for jobless benefits came in at 233,000 last week, down 17,000 from the previous week and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The report comes with Wall Street on edge amid signs that job growth is slowing and even signaling a potential recession on the horizon. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the report
🔼Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly surged around 9% after posting better-than-expected earnings and raising its full-year outlook on strong demand for diabetes treatment Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound. The drugmaker now expects full-year adjusted earnings of $16.10 to $16.60, up from a previous guidance of $13.50 to $14 per share. The company also expects revenue for the year to come in between $45.4 billion and $46.6 billion, an increase of $3 billion at both ends of the range.
🔼Under Armour shares popped 20% during Thursday’s session, putting the athletic apparel company on pace for its best session since October 2018. The gains came after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal first quarter results. Under Armour posted earnings of 1 cent per share on $1.18 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG estimates an 8-cent loss per share and $1.15 billion in revenue.The company also agreed to settle a securities lawsuit for $434 million.
S&P Movers:
📈Monolithic Power +11%
📈Parker-Hannifin +11%
📈Eli Lilly +9%
📉McKesson -11%
📉Monster Beverage -11%
📉Warner Bros Discovery -9%
Market Data
📈S&P 500 +2.3%
📈NASDAQ +2.9%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.1%
📈 DAX +0.4%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.0%
📉 NIKKEI -0.8%
🥇 GOLD +1.3%
💛 BTC +5.3%
😱 VIX -13.4%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 07.08.2024
↘️ US stocks failed to make a steady comeback on Wednesday, though all three of the major averages had been up more than 1% at some point during the session. Chip stocks led the losses on Wednesday, with AI leader Nvidia falling more than 5%.Europe and Asia stocks finished pretty green.
🇯🇵Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida sent a strong dovish signal in the wake of historic financial market volatility in Japan by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when the markets are unstable. The yen weakened by more than 2% against the dollar, bond futures spiked higher and stocks rebounded immediately after his comments, which were the first public remarks by a BOJ board member since the bank raised rates on July 31.
🇨🇳China’s exports growth unexpectedly slowed in July, signaling a cooling of global demand that has been propping up growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. Exports rose 7% in July in dollar terms from a year earlier, falling short of economists’ median forecast of a 9.5% gain, according to data from the customs administration Wednesday. Meanwhile, imports beat expectations and expanded 7.2%, narrowing a trade surplus to $84.65 billion from the previous month.
📱 Disney Q2 report showed the entertainment giant turned a profit in its streaming unit for the first time last quarter while the company also raised its full-year earnings forecast. Shares of Disney were down fell more than 4%, however, as investors digested concerns over Disney's park business.
💻 Super Micro stock fell over 20% as margins disappointed and the tech company, which has ridden a wave of AI enthusiasm, also announced a 10-for-1 stock split. As has been the case with other tech names over the past few weeks, investors expressed concern over how Super Micro's role in the global AI buildout will be a near-term profit boost.
S&P Movers:
📈Fortinet +25%
📈Axon +18%
📈Global Payments +8%
📉SuperMicroComp -20%
📉Airbnb -13%
📉Charles River Lab -13%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 -0.6%
📉NASDAQ -0.8%
📈 STOXX 600 +1.5%
📈 DAX +1.5%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.1%
📈 NIKKEI +1.2%
🥇 GOLD -0.2%
💛 BTC -2.1%
😱 VIX +0.5%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 06.08.2024
↗️ S&P 500, Nasdaq lead comeback as stocks snap 3-day market rout. The benchmark had shed around 6% in the past three sessions, but Tuesday's rally helped push year-to-date gains to around 10%. Technology led the stock market's rally on Tuesday, with the sector surging 2.1%, followed by Real Estate, Financials, and Communication Services. Wall Street's "fear gauge" VIX fell back to 2022 levels after touching COVID peak on Monday
🇯🇵Japan’s Nikkei sees best day since October 2008. Japan’s stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday after the Nikkei 225 and the Topix dropped over 12% in the previous session. Other Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher. The Nikkei 225, which saw its largest loss in the previous session since the 1987 Black Monday crash, as well as the broad-based Topix gained over 9%. The rallies in Japan saw both indexes climb back into positive territories for the year so far.
📱Google lost an antitrust case in the US over dominance in the search engine market. A US federal judge has ruled that Google spent billions of dollars on exclusive deals to maintain an illegal monopoly in the search engine market. The trial will now move into the second phase. The US Department of Justice has not yet said what penalties it will seek, but according to the publication, it may focus on limiting Google's ability to enter into the deals at issue in the case.
🔼Shares of the ride-hailing giant Uber rose 11% after the company beat earnings expectations on both the top and bottom lines. It was the sixth consecutive quarter of trip growth above 20%, alongside record profitability.
🔼Similar to Uber, Palantir saw shares rise about 11% on positive earnings results, with the AI software player also lifting its full-year revenue forecast for the second time this year. The company now expects revenue between $2.74 billion and $2.75 billion, up from the prior $2.68 billion to $2.69 billion.
S&P Movers:
📈Kenvue +15%
📈Uber +11%
📈Royal Caribbean +8%
📉Henry Schein -8%
📉Albemarle -5%
📉Vulcan Materials -4%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +1.0%
📈 NASDAQ +1.0%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.3%
📈 DAX +0.1%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.2%
📈 NIKKEI +10.2%
🥇 GOLD -0.5%
💛 BTC +3.1%
😱 VIX -28.2%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 05.08.2024
↘️ The global stock market rapidly sold off after Friday's US jobs report added to concerns about the economy and whether the Federal Reserve had waited too long to begin cutting interest rates. S&P 500's losses cascaded nearly 3% in its worst day since 2022, capping its worst start to any month since 2002. Crypto also took a beating, with bitcoin sinking more than 10% to creep back toward the $54,000 level.
🇯🇵Nikkei lost 12.4% - the worst day for the index since the “Black Monday” of 1987. The Nikkei erased all its gains so far this year, moving into a loss position. Heavyweight trading houses such as Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Co, Sumitomo and Marubeni all plunged over 14%. The yen also strengthened to its highest level against the dollar since January, and was last trading at 142.09.
✂️ Markets are rapidly pricing in more interest rate cuts. Economists largely agree that the risks to the Federal Reserve holding interest rates too high and potentially stunting economic growth have risen. As of Monday, markets are pricing in more than five interest rate cuts by the end of the Fed's January 2025 meeting, roughly two more cuts than markets had priced less than a week ago on July 31.
💸 Bitcoin is having its worst week since the fall of FTX. The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell 14.85% through the week ending Saturday, before resuming its decline by another 7% over the last 24 hours amid a larger correction across all markets. The price of the digital asset also briefly tumbled below $50,000 to its lowest price since February. It has lost more than $13,000 in value over the last seven days. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is absorbing even heavier losses. It fell more than 15% for the same 24-hour period, briefly seeing its biggest single-day drop since late 2021.
🍏Warren Buffett sold half of his Apple holdings and raised Berkshire cash level to record $277 billions. Berkshire has been a seller of stocks for seven quarters straight, but that selling accelerated in the last period with Buffett shedding more than $75 billion in equities in the second quarter. That brings the total of stocks sold in the first half of 2024 to more than $90 billion. The selling by Buffett has continued in the third quarter in some areas with Berkshire trimming its second biggest stake, Bank of America, for 12 consecutive days, filing this week showed.
⚠️Wall Street's 'Fear Index' hits highest since 2020 coronavirus pandemic. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rise on Monday reached 178.2% at 65.07 points, in March 2020 the index rose to 85.47 points. The main reason for the collapse in global stock markets was fears about a recession in the United States after the employment report for July did not live up to expectations. VIX ended Monday at 38.57 with 65% upside
S&P Movers:
📈Kellanova +16%
📈Tyson Foods +2%
📈Crowdstrike +2%
📉Caezars Entertainment -7%
📉Walgreens Boots Alliance -7%
📉Etsy -7%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -3.0%
📉 NASDAQ -3.4%
📉 STOXX 600 -2.2%
📉 DAX -1.8%
📉 SHANGHAI -1.5%
📉 NIKKEI -12.4%
🥇 GOLD -0.7%
💛 BTC -9.8%
😱 VIX +64.9%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 05.08
⏺PMIs of US, China and Eurozone
⏺Earnings reports Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, Clover, Simon Property Group
Tuesday 06.08
⏺US Trade Balance
⏺Earnings reports from Uber, Airbnb, Caterpillar, Amgen, Reddit
Wednesday 07.08
⏺Earnings reports from Shopify, Robinhood, Disney, CVS, Sony
Thursday 08.08
⏺China Foreign Trade
⏺Earnings reports from Plug, Datadog, Paramount, Unity
Friday 09.08
⏺China, Germany CPI
⏺Earnings reports from Nikola, AMC
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔼Three Stocks That Hit All-Time High Despite Market Shaking
Even in the darkest times there are champions in the market who, despite the trend, not just rush to the top, but also update historical records. It is not surprising that this week among these were many representatives of the sectors that benefited from the Fed’s key rate cut – utilities, telecoms and real estate.
Ryan Specialty Holdings
⏺Insurance – Specialty
⏺Market Cap – $8 bln
Ryan Specialty Holdings is a wholesale broker and managing underwriter. It provides specialty distribution, underwriting, product development and risk management services to insurance brokers, agents and carriers. The stock hit a new high on beating earnings expectations and signing agreement to acquire US Assure, a leading program specializing in builder’s risk insurance
💵RYAN💲
Current price - $68.57
YTD Perf - up 59.39%
Wall Street Target Price - 63.50
Buy/Hold/Sell - 4/10/2
Duke Energy
⏺Utilities – Regulated Electric
⏺Market Cap – $88 bln
Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) is one of the powerhouses in the regulated electric space. Together with its subsidiaries, Duke operates two main business units, one covering electric utilities and the other focused on gas. One of the company’s key advantages is geography. Covering the Carolinas, Florida and the Midwest, Duke is positioned where many young people are moving to. The stock hit a new high as defensive stock during market turmoil and because of hot summer boosting demand for gas and electricity
💲DUK💲
Current price - $113.92
YTD Perf - up 17.39%
Wall Street Target Price - 108.73
Buy/Hold/Sell - 9/12/0
T-Mobile US Inc
⏺Telecom Services
⏺Market Cap – $220 bln
The company is a 5G network leader, with a U.S. footprint that covers more ground than its two top rivals combined (98% of Americans are within T-Mobile’s 5G range). Stock hit ATH on positive earning and prospect of rates cut. Rising rates were one of the biggest risks for telecom companies like T-Mobile because they were eating up improving operating cash flow. If that headwind is now easing, it could become a tailwind as refinancing debt at lower rates becomes more cost-effective and cash can be returned to shareholders.
💲TMUS💲
Current price - $188.76
YTD Perf - up 17.78%
Wall Street Target Price - 200.95
Buy/Hold/Sell - 26/3/1
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 02.08.2024
↘️ Nasdaq falls into correction as fresh job market data showing signs of trouble. According to July jobs report the US economy added fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% - nearly 3-year high. Those additional signs of a slowdown in the labor market are likely to feed recession fears and rate-cut expectations. Traders are now pricing in three rate cuts this year and bets are on a 50 basis-point reduction in September. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest since December as investors flooded into bonds for safety on the fear the Federal Reserve made a mistake this week by keeping interest rates at current levels.
🔽Chip giant Intel plummeted more than 26% on Friday, finishing one of its worst trading days in 40 years. The massive declines followed a catastrophic Q2 report during which the company announced anticipated third quarter earnings below Wall Street expectations, and that it will be cutting 15% of its workforce and suspending its dividend payments amid a broader restructuring plan.The decline was among the stock's worst performances since at least 1982, according to available data from Bloomberg.
📱 Amazon fell more than 8% Friday after the retail and cloud giant Q3 forecast fell short of expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Even as Amazon brought home earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, beating estimates of $1.04 and nearly doubling profits from the same period last year, investors focused instead on the report's weaknesses. A bright spot of the report came from its cloud business, Amazon Web Services. AWS raked in $26.3 billion in revenue compared to the $26 billion expected and well above the $22.1 billion during the same time last year.
🇯🇵Japanese indexes lost more 5% on economic concerns. Nikkei and Topix driven down by signs of cooling in the U.S. economy and an interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan. The fall, which was the largest since the tsunami that triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, wiped away almost $600 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yen is rising this week to a four-month high against USD, which in turn threaten to erode the earnings of exporters who drove the nation’s equities higher for much of this year.
S&P Movers:
📈Clorox +7%
📈Godaddy +7%
📈MarketAxess +6%
📉Intel -26%
📉Microchip -11%
📉Prudential Fin -10%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -1.8%
📉 NASDAQ -2.4%
📉 STOXX 600 -2.7%
📉 DAX -2.3%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.9%
📉 NIKKEI -5.8%
🥇 GOLD +0.1%
💛 BTC -3.5%
😱 VIX +25.8%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures