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📈 All the latest updates on the Stock Market: signals, news, and everything that might move the narrative — all in one place. 😉 We keep an eye on the price; you can just watch us do it. Buy Ads: @JamesCookTg
⚡️Indian Companies Gear Up For Major IPOs Amid Economic Recovery
🇮🇳Indian companies are testing investor interest in large initial public offerings (IPOs) following recent successful debuts. Three IPOs are in the pipeline, each valued at more than $1 billion, including SoftBank-backed food delivery platform Swiggy Ltd. and Indian units of LG Electronics Inc. and Hyundai Motor Co.
⭐️The IPO boom comes amid India's rapid economic growth, which stands out against the backdrop of challenges in countries such as China. Indian listings have already raised $8.6 billion this year, surpassing the previous two years. Local and foreign investors are actively investing in the Indian stock market.
📊Shares of companies that have entered the Indian market this year posted an average first-day gain of 30%, higher than the global average of 22%. Recent IPOs like Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd., Ola Electric Mobility Ltd. and Brainbees Solutions Ltd., also showed significant progress.
⚠️Most of India's 240 offerings this year have raised less than $100 million, prompting increased regulatory scrutiny of possible price manipulation at smaller IPOs.
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🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 16.09
⏺Japan, China - Markets Closed
⏺NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Tuesday 17.09
⏺China - Markets Closed
⏺US Retail Sales
⏺US Industrial Production
Wednesday 18.09
⏺UK, Eurozone CPI
⏺US Housing Starts
⏺FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday 19.09
⏺Bank of England Rate Decision
⏺US Existing Home Sales
Friday 20.09
⏺Japan CPI
⏺China LPR Rate
⏺Bank of Japan Rate Decision
⏺Eurozone Consumer Confidence
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🛢 Sudden Rally Sends Oil To Weekly Gains
📈Oil prices rose on Friday, extending their rally and putting crude oil on track for a weekly gain as production disruptions in the US Gulf of Mexico followed Hurricane Francine, which forced the evacuation of production platforms. Oil broke a series of weekly declines, despite Brent falling below $70 a barrel for the first time since late 2021 on Tuesday.
💵A weaker US dollar also helped support oil prices. The currency fell to a one-week low on Friday, making dollar-denominated goods cheaper for holders of other currencies.
🔗Oil producers assessed damage and conducted safety checks on Thursday as they prepared to resume operations in the US Gulf of Mexico. Official data showed that nearly 42% of the region's oil production had been shut down as of Thursday. UBS analysts forecast that production in the region will fall by 50,000 barrels per day (b/d) in September compared to the previous month.
🔽OPEC and IEA this week lowered their forecasts for demand growth, citing economic difficulties in China, the world's largest oil importer. In the United States, oil inventories also rose across the board last week as crude oil imports increased and exports fell
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🕯 Most Volatile Stocks / 13.09.2024
🔽Boeing stock lost 4% after factory workers went on strike at midnight Friday. Boeing announced a deal on Sept. 8 with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, representing 33,000 of its West Coast employees. Although IAM describes the proposal as “the best contract negotiated in history,” Boeing workers in Seattle and Oregon voted 94.6% against the agreement and 96% in favor of a strike, far more than the two-thirds vote needed for a work stoppage, which will disrupt the production of most aircraft, including the 737 Max.
🔽Adobe lost 9% on weak guidance despite its Q3 revenue beat. For the quarter ended Aug. 30 the software company earned $4.65 a share, topping the $4.53 expected by analysts. Quarterly revenue came in at $5.41 billion, an 11% increase from a year earlier and surpassing the $5.37 billion forecast by analysts. But Adobe's Q4 revenue guidance came in below analysts' expectations. The company projected earnings per share ranging from $4.63 to $4.68 on revenue between $5.5 billion and $5.55 billion. Analysts had forecast $4.67 of earnings on $5.61 billion in revenue.
🔼Shares of the furniture retailer RH surged more than 25% Friday, building on momentum from Thursday when the company reported revenue and earnings that topped estimates. RH said demand — defined by the company as the value of orders placed — jumped 7% in the second quarter and said that may double in the third quarter. Investors are buying into the narrative that RH's latest product assortment is driving the growth. After all, the company is gaining sales despite an environment of high interest rates and a challenging housing market.
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🏘 Mortgage Rates Fall To Lowest Level Since February 2023
📉The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell this week as potential homebuyers and investors turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. At 6.2%, the rate dropped slightly compared to 6.35% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. It’s down from 7.18% a year ago and sits at the lowest level since February 2023.
ℹ️Mortgage rates have slid steadily in recent months, but the relief for buyers has done little to boost home sales nationwide. The Pending Homes Sales Index, a measure of housing contracts, slipped in July to 70.2, the lowest reading since the National Association of Realtors began tracking it more than two decades ago. A year ago, the index stood at 76.7.
🔔Some buyers may be waiting in hopes that mortgage rates will fall further if the Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rates as expected next week. Signs of a slowing job market and cooling inflation in August have strengthened the case for the central bank to ease rates for the first time in more than four years.
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⚡️Core US Inflation Has Risen, Reducing The Likelihood Of A Large-scale Fed Rate Cut
⏺The so-called core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3% from July, the highest in four months, and up 3.2% year on year, bureau data showed labor statistics on Wednesday.
⏺Overall, inflation in the US in August was 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.5% on an annual basis. August marked the fifth month in a row that the annual rate declined due to lower gasoline prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said housing was the "major factor" in overall growth.
⏺While Wednesday's data won't keep the Fed from cutting interest rates next week, it does reduce the likelihood of a sharp rate cut. However, Fed officials have previously signaled that they are largely focused on the labor market, which will likely determine political discussions and decisions in the coming months. They will also have more data to consider ahead of their meetings in November and December.
⏺Traders have reduced the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates by half a point next week to almost zero. Treasury yields rose, S&P 500 futures fell slightly and the dollar trimmed its losses following the data.
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☄️Brent Oil Falls Below $69 – To Lows Since 2021
🔽The price of Brent oil futures fell below $69 per barrel, to its lowest level since 2021. Oil resumed its downtrend on Tuesday, falling more than 3% after oil alliance OPEC cut its forecast for demand growth in 2024 and 2025.
⚠️In its monthly report, OPEC said it expects oil demand to rise by about 2.0 million barrels per day in 2024, down 80,000 barrels from its previous estimate. The oil alliance also slightly lowered its growth forecast for 2025.
💸China was one of the main drivers of the downward revision. The country faces economic difficulties amid a housing crisis. It is also increasingly turning to natural gas, which is cheaper and considered cleaner than oil, as part of its energy transition.
🔴Wall Street analysts have turned gloomier on crude oil, cutting their price targets for the commodity in part due to weak Chinese demand. Growing signs of economic difficulty in the US and Europe, where the summer driving season is coming to an end, have also weighed on prices.
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📉Copper Prices Fall Due To Economic Problems
📊Copper prices fell on Monday after weaker-than-expected US employment data fueled concerns about the health of the world's largest economy. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 fell 0.5% to $8,951 a tonne, having lost 2.6% last week, their biggest weekly fall since July.
⚠️Employment data released Friday showed the labor market slowed more than expected, raising fears of a recession in the United States. This has led to a fall in the prices of risky assets, including copper, which is often seen as an economic indicator.
🔜The data confirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, but its size and speed remain unclear. Investors are awaiting more data this week, including trade data from China, the world's largest consumer of metals.
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🙂Yellen Tried To Reassure Investors
📣Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sought to reassure the public that the U.S. economy remains strong despite a string of weak employment data that rattled investors and weighed on the stock market.
©Yellen said job growth had slowed from the so-called "hiring rush" as the US reopened from the Covid-19 pandemic, but the economy was "in a deep recovery."
ℹ️The Treasury secretary's comments came a day after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment data for another month that was worse than expected.
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🔝 S&P 500 Has Its Worst Week In A Year - Investors Did Not Appreciate The Labor Market Report
🔽S&P 500 fell 1.7% on Friday, September 6. This is the benchmark's worst week in a year, driven by selling in tech stocks as the August jobs report was weak. Tech stocks also fell as investors continued to dump risky assets.
📊 Fresh employment data for August further fueled concerns about a slowdown in the labor market. The statistics released on Friday raised concerns about the state of the US economy, spooking markets and reducing risk appetite. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000 versus expectations of 161,000. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, in line with expectations.
⚠️ August payroll data points to rising risks as the labor market appears to be deteriorating and the Fed needs to step in to reduce risks. The report solidifies a rate cut in September, but the big question is whether the Fed will take big steps (cutting rates by 50 bps) to counter rising risks.
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Meme coins – a money-making button? Or how to make a profit in the crypto market?
Yes, if you get in at the right time! For example, $PEPE brought in 5000% profit in 2023 – you could have turned $100 into half a million. But it’s too late to jump in now.
What to buy? $APES @Apesol_gang . In just 3 weeks, it has hit the top of the growth charts, and the meme is going viral with millions of views. It’s soon to be listed on Bybit and, according to rumors, on Binance.
Keep an eye on the news via Telegram and Twitter.
⚠️And remember, getting Apes before the Binance listing is like buying Bitcoin 10 years ago.
🕯 Most Volatile Stocks / 05.09.2024
🚘 Tesla shares rose more than 6% on Thursday after the electric automaker stuck to its plans to launch the Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver assistance software in China and Europe pending approval from regulators. This comes about a month ahead of the company's unveiling of its robotaxi product, "Cybercab", underpinned by the technology that helps drivers accelerate, brake and steer in cities and highways with human supervision.
👔 G-III Apparel Group shares surged 24% after the apparel maker posted second-quarter results that topped estimates. Management said performance in its owned brands was strong with DKNY and Karl Lagerfeld up double digits. The company also added a new licensing agreement with Converse in the quarter. CEO Morris Goldfarb said the company was raising its earnings guidance for the year
🖥 C3ai stock tumbled 8% on Thursday after the maker of AI enterprise software posted weaker-than-expected subscription revenue for its first quarter of fiscal year 2025. The stock's decline illustrates how investors are increasing scrutiny of companies whose stocks have benefited from the artificial intelligence hype. Four firms lowered their price target on the stock following the report. JPMorgan analysts noted professional services revenue of $13.5 million came in well ahead of expectations for the quarter, but subscription revenue of $73.5 million came in 7% below consensus.
🖨 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. shares dropped 6% after HPE reported weaker-than-expected margins, suggesting lower profitability than anticipated in its closely watched business of selling servers for artificial intelligence work. Investors have become increasingly concerned about the lower margins of most AI servers, owing to the expensive semiconductors they contain made by companies such as Nvidia Corp. In an interview, Chief Executive Officer Antonio Neri said that over time HPE will sell more higher-margin products and services along with the AI servers..
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🕯 Most Volatile Stocks / 04.09.2024
🔽Shares of United States Steel Corporation fell more than 20% on Wednesday as the Washington Post reported President Joe Biden is preparing to announce he will formally block Nippon Steel proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of the company. The post cited three people with "knowledge of the matter" but noted a White House official declined to comment.
🔽Dollar Tree stock is getting crushed in Wednesday's trading. The discount retailer's share price was down 24%. On Wednesday morning, Dollar Tree published results for its fiscal second quarter, which ended Aug. 3. Sales and earnings fell short of analysts' consensus expectations, and management cut its full-year guidance targets. The company continued to face some macroeconomic headwinds, and expenses from store openings and legal liability costs also weighed on the bottom line.
🔽Zscaler stock collapsed in morning trading Wednesday, down by 17.8%, even though the company crushed analysts' forecasts for its fiscal fourth quarter when it reported after the closing bell Tuesday. Turns out, though, investors were less interested in Zscaler's recent past and more worried about what might happen next year. CEO Jay Chaudhry hailed the results as "exceeding the high end of our guidance across all metrics." And Zscaler made good progress toward achieving true GAAP profitability.
🔼Shares of GitLab were soaring today after the DevOps cloud software specialist posted strong results in its fiscal 2025 second-quarter earnings report, beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. In a difficult environment for cloud software companies, GitLab keeps delivering solid growth. CEO Sid Sijbrandij said, "Our results show the combination of our end-to-end platform and AI solutions are driving results for our customers by aligning to business goals, providing measurable results, and improving security."
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🔴 Market Pulse / 03.09.2024
↘️ Investors began September trading with a crash as stocks tumbled on Tuesday to start a historically tough month for markets, with AI darling Nvidia and chip names leading tech stocks down. The turn into the red comes amid a crucial week of data on the economy and labor market highlighted by an influential monthly jobs report.
📊The market initially took a leg down on Tuesday after two readings of manufacturing production showed signs of weakness. S&P Global’s showed a decline from July to August, while the Institute for Supply Management’s came in under the level anticipated by economists polled by Dow Jones. This data reignited concerns around slowing growth within the U.S. economy, which helped drive a closely watched sell-off early last month.
📈U.S. and global benchmark crude-oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday to turn lower year to date, as downbeat economic data from China and a weak reading on the U.S. manufacturing sector fed worries about a slowdown in energy demand. November Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 4.9%, to settle at $73.75 - the lowest front-month finish since Dec. 12, 2023, with prices turning down by 4.3% this year. WTI crude for October delivery fell 4.4% to settle at $70.34 - the lowest front-month finish since Dec. 13, 2023. Year to date, prices have now lost 1.8%.
🔽Nvidia fell 9% on Tuesday, continuing a slide that accelerated after the company's earnings report last week that failed to impress Wall Street. The stock is down more than 12% over the last five days, highlighting a challenging moment for AI and chip companies that have stalled as questions about returns on investments from their customers grow louder.
🔽Coinbase sank nearly 7% as fears of an economic slowdown outweighed the prospects of the Fed's expected rate cut later this month, pulling a host of crypto-related firms, along with much of the rest of the market, into the red. The price of bitcoin, the main cryptocurrency, sank further on Tuesday, around the $57,000 level, dragging the prospects of the digital currency ecosystem along with it.
🔽Boeing sank 6% Tuesday following a price target cut from Wells Fargo, which highlighted pressure on the company's cash flow as it works to develop new aircraft. The company also faces a major potential strike, as its workers in Washington state are set to go on strike if a deal isn't reached later this month.
S&P Movers:
📈Molson Coors Beverage +5%
📈Dexcom +4%
📈Cboe Global Markets +4%
📉Vistra -11%
📉Monolithic Power System -10%
📉Constellation Energy -10%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 -2.1%
📉NASDAQ -3.3%
📉STOXX 600 -1.0%
📉DAX -1.0%
📉SHANGHAI -0.3%
📉NIKKEI -0.0%
🥇 GOLD -0.1%
💛 BTC -1.8%
😱 VIX +38.1%
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⚡️Apple Shares Fall 3% Amid Weak iPhone 16 Pre-orders
🔽Apple shares are down 3% after one analyst warned that demand for the company's new iPhone 16 Pro model was lower than expected.
🗣️TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said pre-orders for the anticipated new iPhone 16, which began on September 13, totaled 37 million units, which is almost 13% lower than the release of the iPhone 15 last year. The expert attributes this drop to low interest in the iPhone 16 Pro model among users.
ℹ️One of the key factors behind the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that the main selling point - Apple Intelligence - is not available at launch alongside the release of the iPhone 16
❗️Weak demand for the iPhone 16 is not a good sign, especially with the holiday shopping season fast approaching. The risk of a significant decline in shares has increased significantly
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⚡️Investors Are Pouring Into Coca-Cola And Colgate Due To Recession Fears
📌Investors are snapping up shares of U.S. consumer staples companies such as Coca-Cola and Colgate as they hunt for defensive assets amid concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy.
📊The sector, which also includes other big names such as Kraft Heinz, Procter & Gamble and Walmart, has outperformed the blue-chip S&P 500 index in six of the last eight weeks. Last week, the S&P 500 consumer staples index posted its best performance against the blue-chip index since March 2020, lifting it to its highest level ever, although it has retreated slightly in recent days.
ℹ️The sector's results mark an extension of this year's stock market rally driven by mega-cap tech groups. It comes as cracks begin to appear in the U.S. labor market, sparking disagreement over how aggressively the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates and fears that the world's largest economy could soon fall into recession
⚙️Consumer staples tend to lag the market during a bull run, but catch up when growth begins to slow. The sector outperformed during the 2022 sell-off but lagged the market as a downward trend began in the second half of 2023
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⚡️Boeing Risks Getting Junk Credit Rating Due To Workers' Strike
⏺Boeing's unsecured debt credit rating has been Baa3 by Moody's Ratings since April. Moody's said Friday it will "assess the duration of the strike and its impact on cash flow, as well as potential equity raisings that Boeing may undertake to improve its liquidity."
⏺Boeing is fighting to maintain its investment grade rating, a task now complicated by a workers' strike. The company has more than $45 billion in debt and is bleeding money after being forced to cut production following a disaster in January.
⏺If the company's rating is downgraded to junk, it will increase Boeing's borrowing costs. The company is also losing money on some defense contracts, and its space business has been plagued by delays and cost overruns. There are other financial consequences of a downgrade, such as a smaller pool of investors willing to buy the company's debt.
⏺CFO Brian West told analysts at Morgan Stanley conference on Friday that the company will consider the necessary steps to strengthen its balance sheet. The aircraft maker is assessing its capital structure to ensure it can meet its upcoming debt payment over the next 18 months, he said.
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✔️China Approves Plan To Increase Retirement Age For The First Time Since 1978
💸China will raise the retirement age for the first time since 1978, a move that will likely slow the country's workforce decline but anger workers already struggling with a slowing economy.
🗓According to the approved plan, the retirement age for men will increase from 60 to 63 years, and for women - from 50 and 55 to 55 and 58 years, respectively. The increase will occur gradually over 15 years, starting January 1, 2025.
©“Governments at all levels should actively respond to the aging population and encourage and support workers' employment and entrepreneurship,” said the decision of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.
💬The country's top legislature also called on officials to protect workers' rights and improve care for the elderly, and authorized the State Council, China's cabinet, to adjust measures if necessary.
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☄️GameStop Shares Plunge 12% Amid Weak Revenue
📊The owner of the chain of video game and gaming electronics stores GameStop recorded a net profit in the second fiscal quarter ended September 10, but revenue fell by almost a third and was below market forecasts.
ℹ️Unexpectedly for many, the company managed to record a net profit of $14.8 million, or 4 cents per share, against a loss of $2.8 million, or 1 cent per share, a year earlier. Revenue in the reporting period fell by 31% YoY to $798 million, which fell short of market forecasts. As a result, GameStop shares fell 12% during yesterday's session.
🟢In June, GameStop said it raised $2.14 billion in a stock sale, noting that it may use the proceeds for mergers and acquisitions. The company did not hold a conference call in conjunction with its earnings report.
📈GameStop shares, which were lifted by the return of influential trader Keith Gill, also known as Roaring Kitty, to social media earlier this year, are up 33.8% in 2024 through Tuesday. The S&P 500 index SPX is up 15.2% this year.
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☄️ Analysts Propose Excluding Boeing From Dow Jones Index
✈️ Boeing, one of 30 companies that represent the American economy in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, may no longer qualify. Recent security incidents and investigations have raised doubts about the company's future.
✂️Rating agencies have cut Boeing's credit rating to the low end of "investment grade" and are expected to further decline to "junk" levels.
📊Boeing has lost more than 60% of its stock price since the second 737 Max crash in 2019. Companies with better financial health, such as Lockheed Martin and GE Aerospace, could replace Boeing in the index.
ℹ️Boeing remains the largest U.S. exporter, supporting 1.6 million jobs. The question is not its survival, but whether Boeing remains one of the key indicators of the "health" of the American economy.
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🕯 Most Volatile Stocks / 10.09.2024
🔼Oracle shares surged more than 10% Tuesday after the company reported earnings that beat expectations, thanks to increased demand for its cloud services offerings. The Texas-based company's push into the cloud computing market is showing promising results and it has started narrowing the gap with market leaders Microsoft and Amazon Web Services. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure remains strong and sustained demand for cloud compute is expected, particularly in AI applications. Oracle also announced a new partnership with Amazon's AWS, further adding to its growing database opportunities.
🔽Shares of the tech giant Apple edged lower, falling about 1% on Tuesday, after it lost an EU court battle over a $14 billion tax bill. The development comes just one day after its iPhone 16 launch disappointed on the AI side, with Wall Street analysts underwhelmed by the phone's new features. The EU’s Court of Justice in Luxembourg backed a landmark 2016 decision that Ireland broke state-aid law by giving Apple an unfair advantage. In another victory for the EU’s antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager, the same court ruled that Google illegally leveraged its search-engine dominance to give a higher ranking to its own product listings.
🔽Shares of the chimaker Taiwan Semiconductor dropped 3% despite strong sales for the month of August. The company's revenue rose 33% last month, a positive signal when it comes to the smartphone market's recovery and demand for Nvidia's AI chips. Wall Street is betting on a bounce-back in demand for mobile devices backed by Apple’s adoption of Wi-Fi 7 on the iPhone 16 and 16 Pro. Taiwan Semiconductor stock has increased 82% in the last 12 months.
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🕯 Most Volatile Stocks / 09.09.2024
🔼Palantir and Dell rally after S&P 500 inclusion announcement. Palantir and Dell rallied 14% and 5%, respectively, after an announcement Friday after the market closed that the stocks would join the S&P 500 index. The move takes effect Sept. 23. Palantir will replace American Airlines, while Dell will replace Etsy. To join the S&P 500, a company must have reported positive earnings in the most recent quarter and year, among other criteria.
🔼Shares of Summit Therapeutics rocketed as high as 75.2% Monday, before settling into a 57.5% gain. The biotech firm released the results of a Phase III study on Sunday at the 2024 World Conference on Lung Cancer in San Diego. The data showed its lung cancer treatment Ivonescimab outperformed Pembrolizumab, also known as Keytruda, the current standard of care from Merck. An early-stage biotech, a potential blockbuster drug would be a huge deal to Summit. Meanwhile, Merck's shares were down marginally in Monday's trading, with Merck being a large-cap, more diversified company.
🔼Boeing gains after reaching labor deal. Boeing stock added 4% after the aerospace stalwart reached a deal with a union that represents 33,000 of its employees on the West Coast, potentially averting a strike scheduled for this Friday. The agreement provides raises totaling 25% over the four-year life of the contract, “the largest-ever general wage increase,” Boeing said in a press release. The deal also improved contributions to 401(k) plans, lowered employee contributions for health insurance, and provided more time off.
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🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 09.09
⏺Japan GDP
⏺China CPI
Tuesday 10.09
⏺China International Trade
⏺Germany CPI
Wednesday 11.09
⏺UK GDP
⏺US CPI
Thursday 12.09
⏺Japan PPI
⏺US Initial Jobless Claims
⏺US PPI
⏺ECB Rate
Friday 13.09
⏺US Consumer Sentiment
⏺EU Factory Output
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⚡️Broadcom's Quarterly Revenue Soared 47%, But Forecasts Disappointed The Market
📈One of the world's largest manufacturers of semiconductor products, Broadcom, recorded higher-than-expected revenue in the third fiscal quarter ending August 4, but the company's shares fell 11% amid weak forecasts and a quarterly loss.
📊According to reports, the net loss was $1.88 billion, or $0.4 per share, compared with net profit of $3.3 billion, or $0.77 per share, a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, earnings were $1.24 per share, exceeding analysts' average expectations of $1.22 per share.
🔼Revenue, meanwhile, soared 47% YoY to $13.07 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of $12.98 billion. Broadcom estimates revenue for the current reporting period will be about $14 billion, while analysts on average expect $14.11 billion.
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⚡️Nvidia Slides 5% As Chip Stocks Lead Tech Losses
🔽Shares of Nvidia sank as much as 5% on Friday as a sell-off in chip stocks led to the downside.The AI chip heavyweight was under pressure along with other semiconductor names on the last day of what has been a volatile week for stocks.
📉Shares of Broadcom also sank nearly 9% after the semiconductor giant's lackluster sales forecast for the fourth quarter overshadowed its earnings beat. Taiwan Semiconductor, Advanced Micro Devices and chip-making giant ASML each slid more than 4%.
📊The Tech sector led the markets lower on Friday after the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, prompting some investors to believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points instead of 50 basis points at its policy meeting this month. Investors have increasingly questioned whether capital expenditures for tech infrastructure will continue and if the AI boom has peaked.
ℹ️Nvidia's stellar growth streak has underpinned the market's rally this year. The stock led a market rebound last month, but failed to continue the rally in late August after a lackluster reception for the company's quarterly results. Nvidia is on pace to end the shortened trading week down roughly 14%.
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☄️Brent Price Fell Below $72 For The First Time Since June 2023
📈Oil prices fell after the release of weaker-than-expected data on the US labor market. At the same time, oil prices may continue to fall as concerns about demand outweigh OPEC+'s decision to postpone production increases.
🤝On September 5, OPEC+ countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, extended voluntary oil production cuts by 2.2 million barrels per day until December. The corresponding statement was published on the OPEC website.
📉Oil began to fall significantly in price on Tuesday, September 3, losing 4.86% per day. Quotes began to fall after signs of a resolution to the political conflict in Libya appeared. Earlier, oil production and exports from Libya's main ports were stopped due to a standoff between political factions vying for control of the Central Bank of Libya and oil revenues.
⚠️In addition, the risks of a decline in oil demand due to high rates have not exhausted themselves. Although the US Federal Reserve is ready to start cutting rates in September, it may take a long time for the rate to return to normal levels. This means that the economy is still capable of falling into recession, which leads to lower oil prices.
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↗️ The Bullish Trend In The Indian Market Is Only Halfway Through
🇮🇳 India's stock market rally is adding weight to its indices and creating a dilemma for global fund managers: sit back and watch their relative risk exposure decline as the market rises, or buy shares at increasingly attractive prices. Most of them consider the latter too risky and are looking for alternatives. Some are investing in smaller Indian companies, while others are looking to other emerging markets.
🔝The trend was driven by years of strong returns in India while Chinese markets suffered a slump, leading to a change in their weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which serves as a benchmark for global emerging market funds.
📊India's share of the MSCI EM index has risen to 19% from 8% four years ago, and analysts at Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research expect it to exceed 22% by the end of this year. China's share fell from 40% to 25% over the same period, according to MSCI data.
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⚡️Goldman Sachs Estimates US Economic Growth Higher If Democrats Win Elections
🌧In the event of a Republican victory or a divided Congress under Donald Trump, economic growth will suffer next year, mainly due to increased import tariffs and tougher immigration policies. Job growth under Democrats will also be higher than under Republicans.
📍The race between Harris and Trump is close, with the Democratic candidate holding a slight lead in national polls and some key states. The prospect of Trump winning, especially in tandem with harsh China critic J.D. Vance, rattled markets in July.
✨Under Harris, job growth would be 10,000 per month higher than under divided-government Trump and 30,000 higher than with a complete Republican victory, Goldman estimates. A Trump victory would likely lead to higher tariffs on auto imports from China, Mexico and the EU, raising core inflation.
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⚡️Wall Street's Oil Market Forecasts for 2025 Are Getting Gloomier
📈Last week, experts at Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley already lowered their forecasts for Brent oil prices for next year to below $80 per barrel. Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned that futures for “black gold” could even fall to $60.
💸The main reason lies in China, the world's largest oil importer, where key growth engines such as manufacturing activity and home sales have begun to falter.
📊Global oil markets were oversupplied by more than 1 million barrels a day in the first quarter as rising demand was more than met by an influx of new production from the United States, Guyana and Brazil, according to the International Energy Agency.
➕However, this figure could increase if the OPEC+ cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, continues to implement plans to restore production by about 2 million barrels per day between October and the end of 2025.
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